Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

This.

If we're doing the hopes and dreams for releases, I just want to see another Wario Land. So we got Wario Land 3 on NSO which is nice and I'm sure we'll get most of the others on NSO at some point, the Wii and VB games excluded. But I feel like there's really a chance to release a new Wario Land game off the back of that

Also I feel like Wario Land would be the perfect franchise to make a late-cycle release out of. Interesting enough to keep us entertained and a bit of fan service. But also not pushing the limits of the Switch to the extent that it feels instantly dated when new hardware comes out. And also, being a 2D title, something they could release with a relatively low amount of development effort

I'd much rather that then Twilight Princess for the 4th time

I agree

@Grumblevolcano you're right about the numbers, I got it mixed up, however it was reported a few weeks ago that Nintendo have told their suppliers they plan to increase production in the FY 23/24:-

https://www.ign.com/articles/nintendo-is-ramping-up-switch-pr...

https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2023/01/nintendo-will-repor...

But they don't give specific numbers, I don't see how you increase production of the switch if you're about to announce the replacement...

@skywake if by the tail end of 2023, you mean FY 23/24 (tail end = Jan to Mar 2024) then I could see that too. I just doubt they will want to do anything to impact Christmas sales this year.

At the end of the day I don't care too much when we get it, I just want great games to play and there are enough games I really want to play on the Switch but haven't yet to keep me busy for the next 3 years!!

@MarioBrickLayer
Nah, I meant a reveal around October/November. I don't think even that would impact sales for this year that much because the sort of person buying the Switch now doesn't really care about what hardware is next. People buying into the platform this late will generally be low information, budget conscious consumers. They're not the sort of people who will be scared off by an announcement of a thing

Which is why I said somewhere else on here that the transition will be more 3DS than Wii U. 3DS sales were flat in 2016, bucking a downward trend the platform was in. Mostly due to Pokemon Sun/Moon. In 2017 they were down ~15% despite the Switch having launched and clearly being the "new portable". 2018 was when their sales cut in half. For this year Nintendo is projecting around a 5-10% drop in sales coming off a 20% drop last year partly due to supply shortages so Switch is more or less in a similar decline to the 3DS when it was replaced by Switch

I don't expect a new hardware announcement to immediately tank Switch sales. I don't think this will be like the Wii where the sales were already falling out of the sky when the Wii U was announced and we had basically 18 months between announcement and release. I expect it to be more like 3DS -> Switch where sales are on a slow decline and we get less than 6 months between announcement and release

@skywake Who knows for sure! If they release in October you could see a parent going into a shop and asking for advice and being told Nintendo have just announced a new console which isn't out until next year so why not spend a bit more and get little Jimmy an XBOX or PS5...

October - December is the highest sales quarter and Nintendo are a cautious company, not sure if they would take the risk...either way, we agree the release is probably in 2024, right?

I don't think that's how that interaction plays out. Some fraction of those interactions? Sure. But far from the majority. A parent comes in wanting to buy "a Nintendo" for little Jimmy's Christmas they're walking out with a Switch regardless of whether or not new hardware is announced. I don't think they're walking out with a PS5 if their budget was Switch Lite and their intent was Pokemon. I don't think they're walking out with an "we'll get one when the new hardware launches" as a Christmas present either

I also wouldn't rule out the Switch getting a price drop late this year to make room for a more competitively price for the new hardware. Maybe a cut down SKU like the late revisions of the 3DS. And if they do that new hardware is even less likely to change the Switch sales trajectory overnight. And even if they don't, the new hardware has to cost more than the Switch at the time of release. So there will be more budget conscious people still picking Switch even after the new hardware is out

@Magician They literally said last week that they have new games planned for Switch. They are keeping engagement up. No need to create drama about stuff we don't know.

@MarioBrickLayer Well yeah, the situation is weird. The info we have is:

• Nintendo are not participating in E3
• Increase in Switch production
• Nintendo said there's new Switch games after TotK (though the Direct told us that with Pikmin 4)
• Only unknown 1st party release timings are Detective Pikachu and Metroid Prime 4
• Nintendo has said no price drop is happening

All of this would make sense if Nintendo were participating in E3 as they could easily pull a 2021 and just announce a very strong fall/holiday lineup in an E3 Direct (prior to E3 2021 the only known 2021 1st party game after July was Brilliant Diamond/Shining Pearl). But given how loyal Nintendo are to E3, their absence makes it seem like they feel there aren't enough games after Pikmin 4 to justify participating.

@GrailUK That could easily be smokescreen, there are ways that could be true while we still could be getting next gen hardware announced in the coming year. I mean, when the Switch was announced, 3DS was still getting games, there were some late releases like Metroid Samus Returns and the Mario & Luigi remakes and cross gen games such as the ports of Captain Toad and Fire Emblem Warriors. They could be referring to those types of releases for the Switch.

I don't think it is unnecessary drama to say the lineup is slowing. We've had very few heavy hitters since 2020 and some of them are about due for new entries but seem to be intentionally held back, such as 2D Mario, 3D Mario, and Mario Kart, and multiple other lower selling IPs that seem due for reveals such as Prime 4 and DK. We have little to nothing on the horizon after Pikmin 4. They're skipping E3, and when they do that they have very little first party news to show. The signs seem to be pointing more towards them waiting for the right time to announce new hardware for this kind of blowout than them waiting to release TotK, we'd have a little more scheduled/announced even before 2023 if that was the case, but for the most part 2021-2023 overall has been somewhat of a slump. It's more likely that they started shifting towards next gen once the pandemic lifted than them expecting this kind of lineup to sustain them for another 2-3 years.

@Bolt_Strike Next gen hardware requires more dev time for games. Probably tied in with the nice pay increase everyone recently got. So I'm not saying that new hardware isn't coming. But I don't think they are going to just cut ties with Switch lol. That is preposterous to even entertain that. This is not the Direct to jump to conclusions. I would argue wait till June's because anything till then, to me, is just noise. Lol, if we do get a tweet saying 'Tune in to tomorrow's Direct featuring approximately 3 minutes of games released this last half year...' would be hilarious. Must say, imagine the internet's reaction when after that Direct eveyone is like 'Nintendo have...have nothing...'
All I know is if that Direct was 'slowing down' with the number of games I want to play...then I'm in trouble hahahaha!

Sony and Microsoft aren't participating in E3 2023. Therefore, they don't have any new games to show and the PS6/Xbox Series Y are right around the corner. Wild card!

@Euler Sony and Microsoft are at each other's throats over the Activision acquisition.

@GrailUK They're not going to quit cold turkey for sure, but there has to be a decrease. Assigning resources to next gen games means that they have to have less resources working on Switch games. And with the relative lack of output and the number of IPs missing, I think we've already been seeing that decrease. 2020-2022 hasn't been nothing, but it's definitely been less than 2017-2019. There were a ton of games and IPs in the first half of the lineup that have been MIA in the second half of the lineup (2D Mario, 2D Zelda, Yoshi, DK, and Luigi's Mansion, while Mario Kart, 3D Mario, and Smash have been technically supported past 2020 but have not had a full main entry, they've only had DLC, spinoffs, or remakes/remasters). Again, I don't think it's absolutely nothing left, but it definitely feels like the Switch is just getting scraps at this point. For the most part the major new entries have vanished.

So? All the more to own the other one on the stage. We all saw how Sony ended Sega's status as a major console developer back at E3 '95.

I think one thing everyone is forgetting regarding next generation hardware from Nintendo and the longer development times for new games etc is that Nintendo is currently constructing a new development block to greatly expand their internal development teams so they won’t require as much outsourcing. I imagine this is going to be to ensure they can keep the frequent release schedule games coming out for the next hardware.

@FragRed Nintendo's always looking to expand their development resources, but how quickly can they create entirely new teams to get more games out? It takes a lot of developers to create an entirely new team because of how much work goes into AAA games, they'd need a good 100+ for that. I do think they've added enough developers to add 1, maybe 2 new teams, but I don't think it's quite compensating for the developers being pulled to next gen right now. In fact I don't think we've even seen any tangible increase in games as a result of those hirings yet. There is a rumor that the EPD Tokyo Team has expanded enough to be able to work on both 3D Mario and DK, but we haven't had an announcement of either IP in the last 2 years so it's hard to say if that's true yet.

@skywake @BoltStrike_,@Grumblevolcano,@MagicianShuntaro Furukawa has stated in the latest financial report, they dont plan to do a price cut on Switch or it games, also i dont feel for IGN/VGC report that state Nintendo is gonna have a light holiday, the june Nintendo Direct will shut up this falacy, Switch sucessor is still way off to release

@Fragred @BoltStrike_ since 2019, Nintendo is working to expand it development studios and buy more companies, in the financial report for setembre last, they stated, they gonna spent ¥300milion yen to expand it development studios and buy more companies for them, they are preparing for the Switch sucessor

@Giancarlothomaz I don't think they'd show off anything about new hardware until much later in the year. The schedule hasn't winded down yet. I do think that if there is a June Direct, it would be the one to contain signs that the next console is on its way, like a software drought. The absence of a Direct as well would speak volumes.