The benefit of hindsight makes it easy to declare that the Switch was a masterstroke in design that could not fail. That'd be revisionism, of course, as Nintendo released the system against a rather challenging backdrop in early 2017. The Wii U had been a failure, and that's not hyperbole — it managed lifetime sales of just 13.56 million units, Nintendo's worst return aside from the Virtual Boy. After a tough launch, the 3DS established itself as a popular device and shifted a respectable 75.94 million units to date across its various models. For context, though, that's less than half the sales of the Nintendo DS family, the company's best-selling system to date with 154.02 million sales.
Shifting to a single-platform business had been in the works for a number of years (as far back as 2013), with the Switch being the realisation of the late Nintendo President Satoru Iwata's vision to change the portable and home console space. Yet in coming off a tough generation in which any successes (namely the 3DS turnaround) had been hard-fought, Nintendo really needed this hybrid console concept to work. Though still financially stable, its profits had occasionally become losses, a far cry from the 'it prints money' DS and Wii era. A single system business is far more streamlined and efficient but if that one big product fails, it's a significant problem. The 3DS bailed out Wii U in terms of keeping Nintendo financially stable; the Switch had no equivalent fall-back.
We're in the middle of what has turned out to be an extraordinary generation. In Nintendo's most recent official figures (30th September) the Switch had shifted 92.87 million units, with the notable statistic that even at that point it had already outsold the 3DS and Wii U combined. In fact, you've probably seen headlines recently saying that the Switch has now outsold the Wii's lifetime total of 101.63 million units; we haven't reported it due to the source data in this case being too heavily based on estimates rather than official figures. However, given the console's trajectory leading into the holidays, plus estimates of extremely robust sales over that period, it's fairly evident that Switch has either already overtaken lifetime Wii sales or that Wii's landmark figure will be surpassed very shortly.
Even if there were plans for a more powerful Switch (yes, the 'Pro') once upon a time, events of the past two years may have made it an undesirable move.
This, of course, has happened while the Switch is still going rather strong, with annual estimated sales of well over 20 million units being the norm. While long term owners and enthusiast fans — which includes many of us on these pages — wish there was a revised and more powerful Switch, the reality is that Nintendo has been better served sticking to what it has. Sales are high, manufacture of the console is challenging but possible in light of logistical issues and chip shortages; it's a winning combination. Even if there were plans for a more powerful Switch (yes, the 'Pro') once upon a time, events of the past two years may have made it an undesirable move. Just ask Sony and Microsoft what it's like launching a new system built with in-demand silicon and meeting customer demand in the current circumstances.
With the Switch turning five this year momentum will likely slow down, the share price may drop as a result, and people will keep talking about new hardware until it arrives (potentially as late as 2024, depending on your analyst of choice). But even as demand dips, it's all relative; after all, if hardware sales remain in the ballpark of 20 million for another year Nintendo is still rolling in hefty profits, especially with revenues from software, licensing products, the upcoming Mario movie and so on all contributing.
So, in terms of Nintendo hardware history, what are the next targets? We have the Game Boy and the DS as the last systems standing, both sharing the fact they had portable 'families' with various revisions over a number of years; yes, there's a pattern.
- Game Boy Lifetime Sales - 118.9 million units
- Nintendo DS Lifetime Sales - 154.02 million units
Nintendo's current estimate for this year's hardware sales of Switch is 24 million units; if that target is hit the system will be on roughly 108.59 million by 31st March. It's pretty obvious, then, that barring a collapse in demand on a scale that no-one is predicting, the Switch should eventually pass the Game Boy, a wonderful achievement.
What about the DS, though? Well, that's a tougher ask, and much depends on Nintendo's hardware strategy and how long this Switch generation will stretch. If, for example, the 'next generation' system from Nintendo comes as late as Holiday 2024 as some anticipate, then the Switch could get there if it holds decent momentum. If Nintendo hits its targets the Switch will be 45.43 million units behind DS at the end of March. Could the Switch make that target if it's still the lead Nintendo hardware for the next 2-3 years?
There are a lot of variables, such as the success of Nintendo's ongoing game line-up into 2023, and whether there are any price-cuts or further model revisions to drive sales. It can be done, no doubt about that, but it feels like it could just be a little too far.
so much has changed in the video game industry since the DS era, not least the growing popularity of mobile gaming, subscription services, even cloud gaming to a degree
Still, the fact that it even seems remotely possible is a testament to the Switch concept and just how much Nintendo has got right this generation. So much has changed in the video game industry since the DS era, not least the growing popularity of mobile gaming, subscription services, even cloud gaming to a degree. The DS revolutionised the industry alongside the Wii, with the portable's concept getting ahead of the smartphone / tablet gaming boom. The Switch has succeeded in this cycle up against powerful home console competition — two generations' worth — and also increasingly affordable and impressive mobile and tablet devices. The sheer attractiveness of the concept, Nintendo's design, and of course the games, have all been major factors in establishing its success.
One thing we know for sure is that, at the very worst, Nintendo Switch will eventually be the company's second best-selling gaming system, with a chance of claiming top spot. That's an achievement that has ensured Nintendo remains at the heart of gaming and popular culture for a long time to come.
Comments 90
Three more years of 15m-20m Switches sold each year.
Sure, why not?
I hope we have a smoother transition between Switch 1 and Switch 2. It would be a shame if the next console only sells half of the current Switch sales. (DS: 154 m > 3DS: 76 m, Wii: 101 m > WiiU: 13 m)
If they didn't have so much trouble manufacturing units it could very well have by now.
It would need to maintain its current pace, but Nintendo’s used up most of their arsenal by now. Unless there’s a price drop or major revision, I think sales are going to start slowing down.
It depends. Does Nintendo like money? Did Nintendo just pour massive amounts of money into extending Switch's games output for an additional 3 or 4 years? Has Nintendo held the usual sales-juicing cards closely to their chest, like price cuts, bundles, and pretty colors/limited editions? If you (wisely) answered yes to all those questions, then you have to know the historic positions of the PS2 and DS are in jeopardy.
I would've said possibly if it wasn't for the global chip shortage.
But it'll definitely outsell every console that isn't the PS2 or DS.
I do not see Switch passing DS and PS2 no chance
Every console has a second wind with the $100 price point. Depends if Nintendo can get it down to that price.
I don't see it happening primarily due to the fact that Nvidia isn't making the Tegra X1 anymore. I'm sure they would like to sell more Switch units but they can't because of the supply constraints.
If the chip shortage had never happened, I’d have voted very strong possibility.
As it stands now, I don’t think it’ll get to 154 mil. It’ll definitely surpass Gameboy though. I’m gonna guess it’ll finish out somewhere around 125-130 million.
@NintendoJunkie
That’s true.
People tend to forget but a signficant portion of PS2 sales occurred after the system dropped down to 149.99 with the slim model.
They were selling like hotcakes world wide until 2008, early 2009, when the PS2 market sort of just crashed and sales dropped dramatically. It still sold well in less developed markets like Latin America and the Middle East thanks to its low price. But US, Europe, and Japan basically stopped buying them once the 360 and PS3 got their first big price drops.
If they release MK9 in 2022 or early 2023 only on Switch at first and later a DX version on the new console (let's say in end of 2024) and BOTW2 it has a chance of selling that much. Otherwise I think sales will drop a little and it will end with around 130 mil. sales.
@NinjaGuy69
It makes me wonder what the Switch 2 will use.
I’m thinking Atlan. It’s in development right now and it features all of the new stuff introduced on nVidia’s RTX 3000 GPUs. That said Nintendo has a tendency to use older chipsets for new products. The old philosophy of “outside thinking with withered technology.” They could use Orin. It’s feature set is equivalent to RTX 2000 series, including DLSS.
Most important thing is that the need to stick with nVidia and guarantee back compat.
With Nintendo’s talk about 4K to developers and the new dock, I’m thinking they’re going to introduce DLSS on Switch 2 in docked play. It would be an even bigger success on Nintendo than on PC since Nintendo can mandate that every developer incorporate DLSS in every game.
Yes it can. I think it will as well.
@TheRedComet assuming their is a switch 2. They might not even bring out a new Switch and go with a home console only.
I think the version options help with the success. The Switch didn't really interest me until the Lite, as if I'm gaming on TV I tend to want a more powerful console and as a handheld I thought it was a bit oversized and had no d-pad as standard, and I enjoy a lot of retro games. The Lite really sold me the Switch though, its become my main gaming platform since.
It's going to be their biggest selling console. I honestly have no doubt. Granted, it will take longer to do it, but the Switch has some impressive legs...probably the strongest ever on a console.
@jarvismp
I think they have to continue with the hybrid set up. They were able to unify their handheld and console studios for the first time. It’s saving them a ton of money.
The hybrid concept is what makes Nintendo stand out from a platform standpoint. It’s their center pillar that draws people to the system. It sells the system on its own, not including the great games.
Nintendo would be foolish to abandon it to go back to a fractured product line.
Voted possibly b/c of all the extra s. 😂
It does seem like a long shot and Nintendo being Nintendo makes it harder to predict. What if they do sell a Switch Pro this year or next launching alongside BtW2 and MK9? Sure, we may call it Switch 2 but if Nintendo calls it Switch Pro even though t gets a few exclusive games - see New 3DS - Switch could easily pass DS. How many Game boy models are there? 🤷
So basically it depends what Nintendo calls their next console. Als, if the nxt console is a Switch 2 worth $400 and it gets all the same games as Switch Lite that Nintendo keeps around for $99, maybe the cheaper model helps it get there.
If I have to guess I'd say no, but Nintendo could find a way.
@Deerock69
That really doesn't mean it has a crack at reaching 150m.
I don't have any data on them extending game output for the next to 3 to 4 years, but that honestly could mean anything for a Nintendo platform in 2022. This wouldn't be the first time Nintendo has reallocated one platforms projects for a next gen machine, successful or otherwise. Most devs do. If they are confident next gen won't change their architecture too much they may happily develop on the older machine till new kits are ready to throw people off the scent. This could go either way.
Fair point on the sales juicing at the same time the Nintendo Switch isn't exactly a DS. Its slowly passing into the land of withered technology, it didn't start there. Say what you will about the tegra X1, it was still current tech 5 years ago. So it may not be in their power to have had drop that price in the last 4 years. Closest they got to that is the OLED model and discontinuing the base model. Otherwise I think they would have put the screws to Sony and Microsoft already. I think the reason the parts cost is still high is largely due to inflation and parts shortages. Otherwise I think we would be looking at a 150 dollars switch right now. Let's be fair we don't see rapid price cuts on consoles down to the 100 and 150 dollar range much these days. By time the Series S does this, they'll likely be upgrading to the Series Z and the new base model will be the Series X in the xbox department. I think its a good point they haven't dropped the price, but I suspicious of this fact as the current price point is what is holding some buyers back, not hardware shortages like with Sony and Microsoft. I think over the next year we'll start to see how true that is, as production of the PS5 and the availability of parts increases to meet demand. Though I could see bundle sure. Little harder to do with cartridges though, so maybe digital copies, but that might result in other issues as well. Colors I'm going to have to say they've done. Different colored joy cons were their solution for this and we did see special edition switches already. I think buyers are fun with the colors they have, given the consoles size and design, it would be better to sell different color docks than different color Switchs. I even have a shell for my switch from rose colored gaming to help finish my "zelda" themed switch with the skyward sword joycon. So I'm not really concerned about a limited edition switch or a wood grain colored switch at the moment. I have a feeling other people recognize that as well.
So I don't think those things hold as much weight as you think, though valid points.
I think they'll try to ride it out for 3 years with a 5 million decline in sales starting this year on year. They'll fall short. PS5, the aya neo, steamdeck, they'll start chipping away at licensing and platform relevance.
achieved 100 cannibalizing wii u and (almost) no pricedrops? No major console revision?
Of course it can.
Switch lite Oled with better analog stick will help.
2023 needs another 4 5 big games and more smaller games.
2023 holiday big price drop.
In the Wii generation people seem to forget Nintendo where a two console manafacturer up till the Switch. Selling past the Wii is only the part pf the battle. To sell what they did 7th generation they would have to sell total Wii and total DS sales. Clearly combining the software divisions has not given users twice the games, so there not going to beat their 7th gen output of 255 million consoles. There not even half way. I always look at the bigger picture.
@nitrolink Good math
If a Switch Pro does come out, it's game over for DS and PS2.
I figure 120 mil by year’s end.
I mean maybe, I bet alot of the OLED's and plain switch's will sell once botw2 comes out (or some other big game) because when animal crossing came out, that's when the switch really started to sell out.
@Mythra
Needs persona 5 royal with 110 million ps4 users to surpass the DS? You talk about Persona like it's Fornite. Xenoblade? We might have the same gaming preferences, but you don't make the most successful console of all time by selling P5R and XC3...and definitely not by releasing a DK game or a Metroid Game. I adore the franchise you're naming...but I think Switch needs more than that.
@KITG_GROUP I think in terms of profability though, the Switch sells at a higher price point and they haven't sold it at a loss from day one so the financials are likely to be more comparable than unit sales.
I think there is enough in the tank for 130-140 million. What happens beyond that is down to its successor and whether people make the immediate jump and the length of the cutover where both exist. Sustaining 5 million per annum globally after the successor is launched is not unachievable.
I think the Switch can surpass the DS but it's up to Nintendo. Will they continue to support the system 2 years down the road, or will they be promoting the next console. I think the Switch has the legs to do it. Nintendo could release a few new color variations and sales would spike, let alone a price drop and great new titles (I'm talking to you Retro Studios lol ).
I expect the Switch stopping at around 130~135mln at best.
The system is already 5 years old, even if Nintendo keeps it for another 3 years the sales will slowly slow down, and the successor is around the corner in 3 to 4 years too.
But I would be pleased if they go above DS, even better PS2 considering how close DS and PS2 are sales wise.
Depends how long Nintendo drags out this current hardware, but the demand is clearly there.
If they keep Switch around after the release of the successor as a budget option for late adopters, I could also see it squeaking past the NDS.
I reckon...120m lifetime. Wii fell off a cliff in it's 5th year.
Switch is only the second Nintendo console I've double dipped in, the OLED is phenomenal. Got a N3DS on launch. I guess it depends how well the revisions do as well.
It really depends but definitely need a one or two more hardware revisions to boost sales prior to the next Nintendo console generation. Reason why DS sold so well is because people bought like 3-4 per household as an individual handheld console whereas Switch is still a 1-2 per household device as a family hybrid-home console. Both consoles experience high breakage and replacements, and Switch is getting to that point where a lot of people want to replace their OG model, hence the decent sales of the OLED.
Before I even answer the above poll I'd ask "how many more years left before the next system? 3 yrs? Then "Yes"..
2 yrs, from today? Prob not
In order for the Switch to succeed in breaking sales records, it needs to do the following:
With a switch lite oled edition… more colored switches and some ports and new AAA nintendo games this should be doable
@Mythra
Every game you mentioned with the exception of Mario are niche core gamer titles (using Nintendo’s definition here). Especially Persona and Xenoblade. Those two are the definition of niche core/hardcore gamer titles. Casuals ain’t gonna invest the time sink both games require.
They aren’t system sellers.
The Switch is at the point in its life cycle where the only thing that would dramatically increase sales (assuming Nintendo could even increase production; the X1 has been discontinued and every Switch is using stockpiled supplies of the chipset now, plus the silicon shortage in general affecting things) is a massive price drop. They drop the OLED down to about 200 and the Lite down to 129.99 and sales would skyrocket immediately.
@SuperZeldaFun
I think they’re going to have to bring out a new Switch in the next two years. Mainly due to chipset unavailability.
Plus I’m sure third parties are getting angsty. Porting current titles to the Switch is a real big chore. Most publishers won’t invest in it or they’ll just release cloud versions, which struggle on a platform where handheld play is so strong and is (surprisingly to me) the primary way people use their Switches.
I’m thinking early 2024 at the latest for a new Switch.
Nintendo is king of this gen as it has now outsold the Wii...
101.88 Million... At this speed it will even out sell the PS4 in a short time.. Im not sure it will outsell the PS2 but then who knows at this point. But No one can say Switch was a failure remember all those crazy people saying Nintendo is doomed and the switch was doomed but it's now the fastest selling console in history. Like i said years back let those people eat static and yes they are now eating it big time
@NinjaGuy69
What a load of nonsense. The Tegra X1 has and will continue to be manufactured given that every Switch model (standard hybrid, 2019 better-battery-life hybrid, Lite, OLED model) uses it.
The Switch can easily hit it IF Nintendo releases one more genre-definer. If Nintendo releases one more system-seller for either the really hardcore or really casual audience, they’ll hit it for sure. If not, then they’ll still eventually probably hit it because Nintendo has legs, but it’ll be really close.
I think it all comes down to the chip shortage (both in terms of Switch parts and PS5/Series X|S parts), game lineup and when the Switch is replaced. 1st party lineup of which is the only thing Nintendo can really fully control.
With a major price cut. Maybe, just maybe.
I think it can easily surpass the DS and PS2
EDIT: NINTENDOOMED!
It just might. But considering this is a hybrid, to match the success Nintendo had during the Wii/DS era, sales should be summed up, and 250 million is still far, far away.
If the Switch is a nine-ten year system then yes. Keep in mind no real price cuts happened yet
@nitrolink
I think that is exactly what is going to happen.
Innovation drove sales on those examples! Then it wore off.
Which is a shame because a more powerful Switch would be great! I don't even need fancy graphics just more power so more developers can release more games without compromises.
@TheRedComet I totally agree and they would be foolish to move away from the concept but of video gaming and Nintendo history tells us anything it is that Nintendo never fail to surprise us all! And not always in a good way. Let’s hope this time they know the long term future will be with Switch.
Switch can easily become the third best selling hardware of all time, but first best selling hardware of all time only a miracle for Switch to have PS2/DS sales level.
i hope and expect the Switch sucessor keep and improve the hybrid formula of Switch.
Enter Nintendo Switch Lite OLED at $249.
Look at the games lineup for 2022 ffs.
Switch is starting 2022 at around 105-110 million units sold. Breath of the Wild 2, Splatoon 3, Bayonetta 3, Pokémon Legends etc. - it's gonna be a hype year, and that's just the games we know about, which should guarantee another 20 million sales and maintain momentum into next year at 130 million, only needing to sell another 25 million lifetime.
I suspect there'll be another high profile Mario game sometime around the release of the movie too. If Nintendo announces a solid lineup for 2023 then the record should be in the bag.
Add in a price cut (e.g. Lites for £99, standards for £175) going into November 2023 too if you like.
And just imagine if Vroom In The Night Sky 2 drops...
The 100M mark is great. It’s a threshold for great success in consoles, in anything. But I can’t say anything over that leans any more heavily on my mind. And for these companies, they’ve certainly made their investments worthwhile, so anything more is just scooping the fat for them
@KITG_GROUP I was about to say the same thing. This is Nintendo's first generation in a long while to not have multiple systems out, the Switch should be doing better than the Wii at the very least.
I think the key here is price points. If Nintendo can maybe get a Switch down around $150, then maybe it would help more, but I'm not sure they care if their profits are meeting/beating the previous years.
I'm kind of curious what might happen if Nintendo announces a Super Switch, one that is fully backwards compatible with the Switch, and has a game like Wii Sports with it at launch with it? But, any "new" system that isn't a continuation really, would probably just be considered another "new" system, which means sales would be splintered overall, and the Switch doesn't do as well as the DS side.
Not sure what/if they do to keep the sales momentum up outside of more software, and price drops on the hardware side to get it further under the $200 range, again, not even sure they care about that at this point.
@CoffeeWithGames A hybrid of product A and product B is not the same as A+B. Why should a hybrid product sell as many as a home console and a handheld put together? And why, in the face of mobile and tablet competition, should Switch have to beat Wii at the very least anyway?
You're oversimplifying if you think Product C in 2022 should, at the very least, outsell Product A +B from 2011/12. Different times and different products.
@gcunit Nobody said (well, I didn't, did I?) the Switch is the same as the Wii and DS, just that Nintendo only has one system on the market now, so Nintendo isn't competing against itself now and having to produce games across two systems and selling two different systems.
Nintendo only has one system on the market now to develop games for, not both a handheld and also a home console. They're not producing games for two separate systems, they're producing games for one system, their market should be concentrated to the Switch.
Mobile competition has been around since the Wii days. The iPhone came out in 2007. The iPad came out in 2010.
I'm not saying that Product C in 2022 should outsell both Product A + B, but with Nintendo's own sales history of systems, it should outsell one of those products easily, because there is only one Nintendo product on the market right now.
If the Switch had failed, like the Wii U in terms of sales, what was Nintendo's backup plan? To keep the 3DS going? I doubt it. I think Nintendo had plans for Switch price drops (like with the 3DS after launch), and quickly, if things didn't go like they hoped, but sales did fine and an initial price drop wasn't needed.
@westman98
Nintendo has a huge stockpile of X1s. Every hardware maker stockpiles components to cover shortages in production or if something is discontinued.
It's funny to read that 2013 article link about the handheld and home console departments merging and seeing people pretty much predict the Switch all the way back then.
@KITG_GROUP I don't think that's quite a fair comparison honestly, how many people owned both a Wii and a DS? A lot. So a lot of that 255 million is people who had little choice but to buy both. Whereas with the Switch, you only really need one - although I'm sure plenty have bought multiple Switches, much as they did with all of the different DS models.
@jamesthemagi
Yeah. I just think Nintendo console sales are pretty turbulent. We're excited about Switch reaching 150 million units, but the fad can wear out. I think Nintendo should pace themselves now with Switch and prepare Mario Kart+3D Mario to launch the next console. So it can have the best launch possible.
I really depends on the arrival of a successor. If it's within 2 years, say before March 2024, then probably not enough time. Personally, I believe a Switch 2 will arrive around March 2024, or even late 2023, complete with launch titles like Zelda BOTW2 and Mario Kart 9.
If the next substantially new console (2024?) is still in the Switch family (pro?), then Switch is basically garanteed to pass DS.
If there is only another 'medium' hardware revision like OLED to stretch the current generation slightly more, 45 million is still very plausible in the next 3 years.
Next year is likely the last 20 mil plus year for the switch. Then one year of 10-15 mil. Then a new console will likely be out and the switch will have 1-2 years of mild support left selling 4-5 mil units a year.
Will it make it with that? I don’t really care to do the math.
I think people are underestimating how well the Switch will most probably sell from 24 onwards. You got to realise that Nintendo still never lowered the price, when they do, the Switch most certainly will brake all the records for late-life sales for consoles. It will continue to sell probably 2-5 million per year for 2-3 years even after the new console is out.
The Switch will most certainly reach 125 million this year, 140 at least in 2023, so it probably will pass the DS.
A switch lite oled could be another popular revision
@NinjaGuy69 They don't make it anymore? Isn't that the same chip they put into their NVIDIA Shield? They still make that right?
@FishyS I predict Nintendo will release one more revision: The Nintendo Switch Home Console. The most expensive parts of the Switch are the screen and the battery. Take those out of the equation and you get a very cheap home console. (Perfect for those that own a Switch Lite.)
@TheRedComet
You don't casually stockpile tens of millions of SoCs.
Combining DS and Wii sales isn't really the same thing. Me and my wife had a Wii, my kids had thier Wii, and all of us had a DS light or DSi. With Switch, it's more like taking the DSs out of the equation for me. For wealthier folks, perhaps it's like taking the Wiis out of the equation. No one is going to buy a Switch for home and another for on-the-go per person; it defeats the purpose of Switch.
It WILL Absolutely Outsell the DS. And I WILL Remind ALL of you Doubters when it DOES!
It's funny how some of you said the same for the Wii, PS1, PS3, 360, soon to PS4 😆 🤣
Nintendo Switch is Dominating
@TheRedComet a lot of ps2 sales was as an affordable dvd player. Thats been unprecedented in the industry since. I would really not count the ps2 as a precedent
Hopefully. It's the best console Nintendo has ever created. I hope Switch 2 is 100% backwards compatible with beefier specs.
To me, the real challenge lies in beating PS2, just imagine being the one Nintendo president to hold the record of best selling console of All time, if I were Furukawa I'll do everything on my power and beat PS2
@thinkhector
At the moment, the Tegra X1 hasn't been discontinued yet and they are still using the upgraded Tegra X1 (aka the Tegra X1+ or Tegra X1 Mariko) in their latest Shield TVs. It's a big unpredictable where Nvidia will go next; with Nintendo being a very big customer for Nvidia, I think there may be a possibility of Nvidia continuing to manufacture the SoC for as long as the Switch continues to sell above a certain threshold per year.
Well I think it actually has a good shot of beating PS2 as long as the console is being supported. All indicators I’ve read show Switch ahead of PS2. And once the PS3 came out, it still had a good 2 years of extended sales. Nintendo still hasn’t had any price drops, and if they continue to roll out a few major killer AAA games each year, it will do well.
@Pipulitoch i know. actually you need mario kart 9. but if you see that good mario kart 8 still sells you would better keep it as a launch game for the switch 2.
@Dimitris670
That was only a significant factor early in its life.
Later on it was the great game library and the price drop with the Slim that gave it essentially a second launch and exploded sales again.
Technically the PS3 was a very affordable Blu Ray player in 2006 and 2007. And that helped it sell during those early years. But it was the launch of Uncharted 2 and the Slim model that helped it surge forward.
@CoffeeWithGames DITTO, It does strike me that Switch is 5 years old soon, Surely Nintty are well into development of the next Nintendo console, And once the chip shortage eases the new consoles and forthcoming Steam Deck are going to make it look quite dated. Be interesting to see what they come up with next or will they play it safe. But if the fragment the market with a new all singing version of switch that plays specific games that wont work on the older systems then they could be in trouble. I think they should just wait it out for 18 months and reveal a whole new system .
@Orpheus79V I think your be surpised, Myself and i know of at least six others who owned Wii and DS, some even buying mutliple DS. And I have also seen and know a few who have a standard Switch and a Switch lite. So it is possible.
"As Lifetime Switch Sales Jostle With The Mighty Wii, Can It Possibly Catch DS?"
lol um ....no nothing will ever be that good.
"To me, the real challenge lies in beating PS2,"
That's easy just about every system has already done that since it only actually sold about 70 or 80 mil, and the rest was due to
faulty versions of the console that didn't work making people have to buy it again 2 or 3 times till they got it right.
What happens after the release of the next gen console? That’s the only aspect this article was missing. The DS and 3DS each shipped another 7 to 8 million units after their respective successors had been released. Why? A lower price, yes, but also the software library. So the Switch still has that potential of long-tail sales.
Some points of interest from past known information. First Nintendo back in 2016 signed a 10yr agreement with NVidia. Nvidia really wanted to break into the console gaming market and Switch has given them their first true sucess. They are not going to stop making X1 as long as they are pushing 20M+ SOCs to Nintendo per year. You can guarantee that N and N are already having discussions about the next SOC and what spec/performance and price point Nintendo is seeking and what NVidia thinks is doable.
Second....before Switch, Iwata and Shiggy both said that they wanted the future platform to be forward scalable/ BC like the mobile arenas are. They said specifically they like how mobile (IOS/Droid) maintained compatibility across hardware and software generations. Given that Switch has been so wildly successful I would think the desire to maintain compatibility would be even higher as you already have a ridiculously huge library and lots of users invested. So much has changed in gaming development with the amount of time and people it takes to create major efforts. The x86 twins would be in horrible shape (early on) if they were not both largely (xbox fully) BC.
Also, and the grafx whores won't want to hear this but the power gains in each generation are lessoning. Again, this is why so many x86 major releases are cross gen and will likely continue that for a few more years. If a PS5 can run something at 4K@60FPS then a PS4Pro can usually run it at 1080/1440@30PFS. Sofware is built to scale these days and that will keep the Switch viable a few more years until the next hardware arrives.
As for reaching 150M+ units. I vote likely. They typically sell almost 1/3 or more of their units in the holiday qtr so they are already over 100M. 2022 is looking like the best software year since 19. They are going to have multiple 10M+ sellers this year (that we know of) and more that we don't know of. 2022 is going to be another 20-25M unit year easy. Ppl talk about the Wii falling off the cliff fast, but remember the last year for Wii saw almost nothing significant in software, and as we all know Wii was essentially an enhanced GC with motion. It was much more of a gimmick where Switch is an elegantly designed hybrid that fits a niche that is going to stay in demand as long as there are gamers who like both portable/home and want the crossover. I still wish they would spin off a Switch Home Mini. They could easily sell it for under $200 and then have a cheap home only option to fill out the line and keep pushing sales.
@KITG_GROUP I am really curious (personally, I think they are, which probably means they aren't) if Nintendo will announce a Super Switch/New Switch soon, like maybe even before the end of January, for a March release. If I'm Nintendo, I pull a reverse Valve, and announce the Super Switch is releasing BEFORE Valve can get the Steam Deck out and shipping.
When did Valve announce the Steam Deck? Wasn't it like the 2 days before or the day before the Switch OLED pre-orders went live? It worked for me there. Took any interests we might of have in the OLED and basically dumped it in the trash.
We already own an OG Switch, so the OLED wasn't even really an upgrade for us because we play in docked fashion 95%+ of the time.
Now, reverse this, and say Nintendo says, "The Super Switch will be launching on 2/22/22, at $399.99", I actually might PAUSE on my Steam Deck and have to seriously think about keeping my pre-order for it.
If Nintendo doesn't announce it soon, I'm sticking with the Steam Deck.
@CoffeeWithGames Thing is chip shortage is still rife, they reckon it will continue till 2023, so with that in mind I can't see Nintendo announcing anything to soon, maybe not till 2023 with a Holiday 2023 release. I do beleive they will strecth Switch as long as they can so maybe a new console in Spring 2024, giving Switch 7 years
@KITG_GROUP You literally just agreed with what I said.
@Orpheus79V Exactly
@ModdedInkling The Tegra chip in their new Shield models is the exact same as their old one. I remember this because the first time I can recall that a newer consumer product DIDN'T come out with a better chip set.
@thinkhector
I rest my case. It'll be quite a while before they are entirely phased out.
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