Google Trends Data Demonstrates Interest in Nintendo Switch

All those google searches is me desperately trying to find information about the darn thing.

Personal consideration: another point in favor of the good marketing that Nintendo is doing

All those google searches are just me pressing the F5 button...

I did pre-order one. I would like to know the available number of preorders availble in the states, UK, and Japan.

I pre ordered one in New Jersey and it was one of the last 2 at Gamestop.

So how many units are we actually focusing on with these results?

Not as many people would have been using the internet to search for preorders back in the Wii days, either.

Hmm, that's nice, but once again a critical part is missing, the Y axis doesn't say what it is. Just 0 - 100, what 0-100 bananas?
Once again completely useless data.
Great!

I'd say the Switch to Wii U match up is ok math, but those Wii comparisons don't make any sense to me. They are looking at the number of searches. How many people had smart phones and tablets to search 10 years ago when Wii launched? Of course more people will be using Google to search for stuff in 2017 than 2006, more people w/ more devices w/ more access to Google.

Wii U being only 5 years ago is probably closer in number of devices, there are more but it's a lot closer than 11 years ago.

So Nintendo is doing a good job w/ the promotion of Switch, but those 2 million consoles at launch though. eBay scalpers must be drooling. 1 step forward, 2 steps back.

@rjejr valid points

@Equinox The switch hasn't launched yet.

Something to think about: how many of you actually searched for "pre order switch" on Google? I surely did not, I went straight to Amazon. It wouldn't be surprising if most dedicated users did the same thing with their retailer of choice.

So yeah, it's good to have these data, but I don't think it can be used to draw any meaningful conclusions.

@Bunkerneath I agree that it's a miserable way to display information, but it looks like they normalized the curves such that the highest value one of the curves achieves is at 100, and then the labeled y-axis just serves to show that it's linear. So while it's pretty close to useless, you can compare the relative interest through time. Agreed that an actual metric for the interest should be displayed on the y-axis. This is classic unscientific boardroom style infographics ;p

Yes it will be interesting to see all this data convert to sales. Wow! That's good for Nintendo and gamers who play on Nintendo platforms. I'm not really all that excited as I use to be when I was a kid. Mostly because of maturity and getting older. But this is still a hobby that I play casually. It'll be really fun to play Switch games with my fiancee as I am trying to surprise her with her own console at launch, which is why I bought two of them. So it all should go well, hopefully.

Nintendo is on a roll!

Would people searching for Wii U vs WiiU vs Wii-U be a factor?

I''ve been checking and it looks like the Superbowl ad only gave a short spike then everything when back to normal. I don't know if that means it was a waste of money.

@MarcelRguez Yeah for my preorders it happened in two ways. 1. I knew about it already as well as many others. I camped out at my local Gamestop on 1/12 a day in advance to preorder my Switch. 2. Second was on Amazon for my fiancee's preorder.

So yeah, I definitely didn't use Google, lol. But experience matters a lot. This preordering business isn't anything new to a lot of us here. Especially if you're an older gamer. But those Google statistics is a positive thing. People who have missed out on preorders are mostly using that search engine to get educated on how to preorder. A lot of new consumers don't know about fan sites like this. So...

Take it with a pitch of salt.

Nerf this!

@ReifuTD Hey, at least a lot of people heard about the Switch for the first time.

@Bunkerneath Well, from a scientific point of view you are wrong. It is true that the Y scale means nothing concretly but it still shows the comparison between these two.

All we can take from this is people know what the Switch is.

Which is good!

You stole this from Reddit, didn't you?

@YeshaYahu5417 Oh, for sure. I'm not trying to spin this into a negative or anything to the effect. I was just pointing out that these numbers can't be equated with pre-order numbers, obviously enough. Not only because not everyone that searched "pre-order Switch" got one, but because not everyone that got one searched "pre-order Switch".

@MarcelRguez Yeah no doubt. Interesting article or news nonetheless.

It's meaningless. First, these numbers aren't for unique visitors. A single poor sap that missed out on the pre-orders could hit it twenty times per day and it counts for each one. Second, with the Wii U Nintendo hadn't just come off a scalper frenzy Christmas season caused by artificial scarcity.

[interest intensifies]

@xj220_afiles

https://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=nintendo%20switch,ps4,xbox%20one

How's that for comparison?

Did anyone else notice that the 'PRE ORDER CHART' for the Wii U's, it's a red M...was Bowser Jr disguising himself as Mario (from Mario Sunshine) and spray painted an M on there to mess with nintendo???

@Mellor2000 Congrats, you win "Calllack's post of the day".

@JohnGrey That comparison doesn't seem useful to me. There are over 50 million PS4 owners searching about their primary gaming machines and zero Nintendo Switch owners. Here's a more useful one right now:
https://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=pre%20order%20switch,pre%20order%20ps4,pre%20order%20xbox%20one
That shows number of searches for pre ordering PS4, XB1 and Nintendo Switch. Much closer dates and more specific and relevant type of comparisons in my estimation, and the Nintendo Switch has pre order searches that approach the level that PS4 had before selling 1 million in the US alone on the first day of launch.

@aaronsullivan It's not relevant at all. Neither XB1 nor PS4 had the significant concerns for artificial scarcity that the Nintendo Switch has, concerns prompted by the availability disaster and scalper parade that was the NES Classic during the Christmas season, so pre-orders weren't anywhere near the concern.

If you look at the chart I provided, what is the first major spike for the PS4? The Week of 17 - 23 February 2013; the PS4 was revealed on 20 February of that year. What is the first major spike for XB1? 19 - 25 May 2013; the XB1 was revealed 21 May 2013. What are the spikes for the Switch? The teaser trailer and the reveal, neither of which approach even a significant fraction of the same level of interest.

@aaronsullivan

Much closer dates and more specific and relevant type of comparisons in my estimation, and the Nintendo Switch has pre order searches that approach the level that PS4 had before selling 1 million in the US alone on the first day of launch.

Moreover, this alone ought to concern you. You have a huge spike in pre-order search trends but a tiny fraction of general interest. The obvious inference from either of those ought to be clear: pre-orders searches are done by early adopters or scalpers and are not reflective of general market interest on a forward basis. The implication being that, like the Wii U, the Switch will handily sell its launch day allotment and then stall fantastically.

Hmm do u smell that? Hot cakes are coming.

@Calllack Thank you so much for this auspicious award. I haven't really prepared a speach but you know I'd like to thank my family and friends without whom I wouldn't be the man I am today. Oh and of course our lord Jesus Christ.

Obviously, Google Trends will hardly dictate the long term success of the platform, but it is good to see that interest is much higher than that of the Wii U prior to its launch.

I'm not sure what this means but cool. It's good that there is interest in the Switch, but I didn't need a chart to tell me that.

The problem with these kinds of statistics is that English-speaking countries make up much less than half of Nintendo's market, about a 1/4-1/3 I presume. We also have Japanese, Spanish, Portugese, French, Chinese, German, Czech, Greek, Hungarian, Turkish, Dutch, Polish, Russian, Irish, Italian, Finnish, Danish, Norwegian, and Swedish to take into account.

Problem is scalpers, how many of these pre-orders are the real deal, and how many are people expecting a shortage like the NES Mini then hoping to turn the system around for a quick buck?

@duffmmann
Ehh... I think scalpers aren't really the issue like some believe they are. There's less than 2,000 entries on eBay. That's 1 out of every 1,000 pre-orders, based on 2 million initially available. So 0.1% of available product. Even if you averaged 2 per seller, that's still 0.2%

It's aggravating to see, but it's just not a significant factor

@MarcelRguez
Well of course. But that's not what this is showing us.

This is relative comparativism. The actual numbers are of no concern (they can be, if so desired on another graph). It's a comparison of one set of data relative to another. It just shows us how well Switch is going relative to how the Wii and Wii U did. I'm pretty sure those are in millions btw.

@JaxonH Don't get fixated in me using the word "numbers", it was just a way to refer to the graph itself. Besides that, that's precisely the point I was making, hence the "obviously enough".

@JohnGrey You seem very upset over the prospect of giving the Switch any positive buzz. Why is that?

Do you genuinely want it to fail, or can you just not stand to take the risk of showing favor to a product that all the cool kids on the internet might end up pointing and laughing at?

@Fath You seem very upset at the prospect of a rational evaluation of Google search trends. Why is that?

I'm not here to show favour or disfavour to the product, and I'm old, so I'm used to being what the 'cool kids' point at and laugh. Since you don't seem to have a methodological problem with my analysis, I'll have to assume that you have an emotional problem with it. Don't blame me if some maths cause you some niggling doubt that history is repeating itself.

@JohnGrey I'm all for interesting observations of search trends, and I do appreciate the ones you've posted for what they are, but you are biased, with your kneejerk reaction being to dismiss search trends as "meaningless" until you could come up with your own set that told the story you wanted to see.

I was probably being overly harsh on you, since the presentation of a comment thread like this tends to exacerbate bad impressions, and I fall for it sometimes. Sorry. Kneejerk reactions provoke kneejerk reactions and such.

Still, though, it seems like you're willfully only seeing what you want to see in the trends. Seeing what you want to see is natural, but to discredit data that doesn't fit your narrative inserts bias, and inflates the confidence of your own conclusions above what they - or any drawn on this data set - deserve.

@JohnGrey Regarding history repeating itself - this isn't a matter of worry right now, it's a matter of fight. Consoles are built on a virtuous cycle of consumer confidence - hype generates sales, sales generate third-party investment, investment generates hype. System specs, in the end, aren't terribly important to sales except as a means to jumpstart this cycle.

Every prediction made in public about the Nintendo Switch is, on some small level, a self-fulfilling prophecy to the extent that it'll either boost or dampen hype. So yeah, as a Nintendo fan, when I see an unwarranted prediction going against the Switch, I'm going to try to push back against it, and as I explained, yours claimed more confidence than was warranted.

@Fath

I'm all for interesting observations of search trends, and I do appreciate the ones you've posted for what they are, but you are biased, with your kneejerk reaction being to dismiss search trends as "meaningless" until you could come up with your own set that told the story you wanted to see.

All Google trends are functionally meaningless as true tools of prognostication or analysis, in that they exist without context beyond the raw frequency of searches for whatever is inputted. My first post make that point very specifically and to decry the article as a whole as a poor example of manufactured confirmation bias. I then responded to another poster with an equally 'valid' comparison that simply shows that, depending on how you phrase the search terms, you get very different and diametrically opposite results in terms of interest. The came my final rejoinder that called into question that the comparison I provided could have equal or more diagnostic weight and I gave a methodological analysis about why it has equal, if not more weight if one accepts that search trends are a valid method of analysis.

I was probably being overly harsh on you, since the presentation of a comment thread like this tends to exacerbate bad impressions, and I fall for it sometimes. Sorry. Kneejerk reactions provoke kneejerk reactions and such. Still, though, it seems like you're willfully only seeing what you want to see in the trends. Seeing what you want to see is natural, but to discredit data that doesn't fit your narrative inserts bias, and inflates the confidence of your own conclusions above what they - or any drawn on this data set - deserve.

Be as harsh as you like, it doesn't bother me in the least so long as you make a valid point, and to my mind you haven't. There's no data, there's ungraduated graphical comparison that contains no imformation about demographic representativeness or assurances of quality with regard to uniqueness. What I did was to seek to discredit an unsupported fallacious narrative with an different narrative, equally unsupported and fallacious, because the entire foundational notion of both is absurd. That you can just as easily call my analysis into question does that work for me; the search trends are a pareidolia, without statistical value. With laughable ease, one can make it say whatever one wants.

Regarding history repeating itself - this isn't a matter of worry right now, it's a matter of fight. Consoles are built on a virtuous cycle of consumer confidence - hype generates sales, sales generate third-party investment, investment generates hype. System specs, in the end, aren't terribly important to sales except as a means to jumpstart this cycle.

Of course they're terribly important. The speak, far more than 'hype' as to the extent and duration of third-party support. There is a necessary balance between install base size and cost of development that necessarily leans its support toward technical specs because it transfers a fraction of cost of development from the developer to the end user by virtue of making it a far simpler affair. People have made much of Platinum Games' statement that they would put NieR: Automata on the SNES if someone pays for it, and that goes centrally to a point that I've argued for a very long time on this site: near-parity of hardware is just as important as large install base size to securing third-party support because the margin on software is so low and the front-loaded expense so high that the fewer differences between platforms the better. This is echoed in statements made by Respawn, Hajime Tabata and others. They like the notional language of the Switch in the abstract but from a practical point of view, when they're footing the initial bill to develop, they're rightly dubious.

Every prediction made in public about the Nintendo Switch is, on some small level, a self-fulfilling prophecy to the extent that it'll either boost or dampen hype. So yeah, as a Nintendo fan, when I see an unwarranted prediction going against the Switch, I'm going to try to push back against it, and as I explained, yours claimed more confidence than was warranted.

I make no claims of confidence beyond my own mind and I the statements that I make carry no warranty of being true. That said, I notice that you continue to raise no issue regarding my analysis beyond the fact that I consider it more probable than the opposite based on Nintendo's install base attrition generationally and its brand equity amongst its target audience (gamers), and that that cauess you emotional disquiet. If you in fact do have problems with them beyond that, please elucidate them. If you do not, then I'll thank you for your response and respond, as kindly as I can, that I do not care at all for the health of your fandom or its object. Whether Nintendo fails or no doesn't affect me in the least. I have no emotional attachment to them, or against the beyond the too-important-to-fail mentality that is oftentimes displayed here, and I'm not a shareholder so their fortunes do not affect my own.

@JohnGrey "It's not relevant at all" because paranoia over shortages? That might have a small impact but if someone is searching for a pre order it means they are interested in buying it. Why did people pre order PS4 if they thought they could walk in on day one and just buy one? They sold out over and over the way I remember it. Just like most console launches.

Either way, the general interest level being almost half of PS4 is a really good sign in my estimation. Especially since there was a strong marketing narrative about Playstation vs. Xbox and gamers knew the big showdown was coming. Beyond those initial spikes, though, the comparison becomes pretty useless as per my earlier comment.

Certainly these aren't great indicators, but the big numbers and wide samples are good for suggesting generalities. I've notice the naming of things is problematic, too which is one reason I preferred the pre order searches as they were more specific.

Anyway, looking great for Nintendo's future. cheers.

@JohnGrey On the interest vs. preorders you are comparing apples and oranges and making a pretty broad leap there. There are other factors that weigh heavily in favor of the Switch including the portable nature and how it will be able to get hands on use in people's hands more quickly than a console anchored to a home. I'm guessing a steady ramp up and a strong Holiday for the Switch in sales, so a different curve and a solid year.

@aaronsullivan Just like everyone saying that the search trends mean something positive are making a broad leap. But I suppose it's 'different' when it's the Nintendo Life echo chamber, eh? I'm fine with discounting my version as being functionally meaningless; are you honest enough to do so with your scenario?

@aaronsullivan Certainly these aren't great indicators, but the big numbers and wide samples are good for suggesting generalities. I've notice the naming of things is problematic, too which is one reason I preferred the pre order searches as they were more specific.

They aren't good enough to suggest generalities of material unit movement. They have absolutely no context, even in relation to each other since we cannot say with any degree of certain how many of each search constitutes an individual consumer. Unless I'm meant to believe that someone that searches for a particular pre-order four times on a given day does so with the intention of purchasing four units, and I absolutely don't.

@JohnGrey
Don't get all butthurt over good news for the switch. Lighten up or you'll end up like gatorboi and sligeach.

@ReifuTD Superbowl ads usually are a waste and rarely do better than the Switch advert.

@BigWhoady

Don't get all butthurt over good news for the switch. Lighten up or you'll end up like gatorboi and sligeach.

No 'butthurt' here, if it does well then it does, but I'm going to call bollocks when I believe it to be that, even here where I accept that it won't be popular.

@rjejr Um, who cares? Why are you being over analytical? It doesn't matter how the Wii and Switch compare, or how valid a comparison chart is. All that matters is how well the Switch is doing, and so far, it looks like it's off to a good start.

So it's more popular than one of the worst performing home consoles ever made, classic example of using statistics to prove your point when in reality they are quite meaningless

@JohnGrey I don't see your leap being in the same scale as "Google search results show something generally positive for the Switch". You said: "Moreover, this alone ought to concern you. You have a huge spike in pre-order search trends but a tiny fraction of general interest. The obvious inference from either of those ought to be clear: pre-orders searches are done by early adopters or scalpers and are not reflective of general market interest on a forward basis. The implication being that, like the Wii U, the Switch will handily sell its launch day allotment and then stall fantastically."

To me that seems a bigger leap.

Then, to suggest my views are part of some echo chamber at Nintendo Life based on this? I am generally an optimist and we have our share of typical fingers-in-their-ears-everything-is-awesome-types and the I'm-just-here-to-dump-on-everything types but I stay for the back and forth with people that challenge my thinking and expand my views. I enjoy finding out how people enjoy Nintendo differently than I do.

On that suggestion you made I do see it differently. The comparative gap in pre orders and that spike of general searches is interesting but I don't view that general search as particularly small to begin with (a little less than half of a similar reveal period of the fastest selling game console in history). The pre order spike being so high can be a reflection of many other factors including the short span before the actual release, for instance. I'm not totally buying the big disparity between scarcity paranoia (you can look up stories about scalpers and PS4 that were circulating at the time, but they didn't amount to much in the end fortunately) but it could have an effect.

So, that diminishes what one might guess from the graph I introduced here in isolation, but that's good. I see the whole thing even at half the impact as a big positive. Plus, it's a more complete picture.

Anyway, I honestly don't think these are useless indicators and I find them interesting to discuss and place in context. Not nearly as interesting as the actual sales numbers will be, though.

@aaronsullivan

I don't see your leap being in the same scale as 'Google search results show something generally positive for the Switch'. You said: 'Moreover, this alone ought to concern you. You have a huge spike in pre-order search trends but a tiny fraction of general interest. The obvious inference from either of those ought to be clear: pre-orders searches are done by early adopters or scalpers and are not reflective of general market interest on a forward basis. The implication being that, like the Wii U, the Switch will handily sell its launch day allotment and then stall fantastically.'

To me that seems a bigger leap.

As I explained to another poster, that response was meant somewhat tongue-in-cheek, in the sense that it represents an equal but opposite narrative that could be constructed from minor variationsn in trend terms and then compared. The point was to underline that the trends are objectively and statistically meaningless. They do not represent quantifiable data because the we have no raw numbers for either group of searches, nor are we able to ascertain, or even hazard, how many of the searches are unique. I'll agree that they're a curiosity, but analytically that's the very most they are.

Then, to suggest my views are part of some echo chamber at Nintendo Life based on this? I am generally an optimist and we have our share of typical fingers-in-their-ears-everything-is-awesome-types and the I'm-just-here-to-dump-on-everything types but I stay for the back and forth with people that challenge my thinking and expand my views. I enjoy finding out how people enjoy Nintendo differently than I do.

And that's just fine, I enjoy the debate. I'm certain that most here consider me a pessimist at best, and a committed troll at worst, but that truly isn't the case. My views of Nintendo and its viability have to do with numbers, and what those numbers mean in the historical context of the rise, and occasional fall, of commerical brands. To that end, I see significant downside pressure, beyond what is generally recognised by those Nintendo enthusiasts will even dare to entertain.

[em]On that suggestion you made I do see it differently. The comparative gap in pre orders and that spike of general searches is interesting but I don't view that general search as particularly small to begin with (a little less than half of a similar reveal period of the fastest selling game console in history). The pre order spike being so high can be a reflection of many other factors including the short span before the actual release, for instance. I'm not totally buying the big disparity between scarcity paranoia (you can look up stories about scalpers and PS4 that were circulating at the time, but they didn't amount to much in the end fortunately) but it could have an effect.

So, that diminishes what one might guess from the graph I introduced here in isolation, but that's good. I see the whole thing even at half the impact as a big positive. Plus, it's a more complete picture.
Anyway, I honestly don't think these are useless indicators and I find them interesting to discuss and place in context. Not nearly as interesting as the actual sales numbers will be, though.[/em]

Again, my analysis was intended to be somewhat farcical but allow me a moment to step back into it for the purposes of making a point. You mention that you're optimistic because the search volume was half that of the PS4 and a bit more than that for the XB1. In reality we cannot say that because, again, we do not know how many individual consumers are represented in those search frequencies because Google Trends doesn't truncate for uniqueness, but let's just go with that. Therein lay an additional problem: both the PS4 and XB1 were dividing an audience at the time. Undoubtedly there was some overlap between those audiences, perhaps 20%, but there are enough diehard brand loyalists in both camps that it wouldn't represent a cancelling majority. The Switch has no competitive launch to dampen the impact of its reveal and release yet, if the metrics are resonably accurate (again, I do not believe that they are), it's not reasonable to account the Switch half the volume of search interest, rather some mutiplicatively decreased percentage. February and March are an advertising wasteland for games; why is the Switch not commanding more mindshare. Just a thought.

@JohnGrey
Yeah that's called being butthurt.

@JohnGrey
Wow, your posts are long to not really be saying anything at all.

@MarcelRguez We are a drop in the Ocean: informed Nintendo fans.

There is plenty of Switch interest from me but the reality of it is making sure I stay away for a few years until prices come down. I am interested, but that interest won't turn into a sale until such time as I can get the system and enough memory to make it functional like the other consoles, for the same price as the other consoles.

I've got a feeling it's only going to perform as well as the Wii u did.

@JohnGrey Overly long and overly vacuous posts cause people to scroll past, rather than searching for any nugget of wisdom that might be hidden in the wall of text.

@dan_gleibitz Thank you! You should write the fortunes for fortune cookies, you would do very well.

@JaxonH well you're only looking at eBay listing right now. Wait for the device to actually release and if there is indeed a shortage and we may end up seeing a lot more scalpers on ebay charging nearly double the system's real price. Way too soon to judge based on ebay listings prior to the system's release.

I've helped add to those statistics. But I bet there are many like me who aren't pre-ordering, and aren't waiting in line to buy one launch-day, not buying one from a scalper, but I'll wait until I can just walk into a store and buy it easily. That being said, that is STILL my plan for the NES Mini, still waiting.....

@BigWhoady Thank you for the dual examples of how to say even less! They're quite informative.

@JohnGrey
You're welcome. I knew you'd see things my eventually.

The Wii did take off post-launch but it was still hard to get one at launch. I pre-ordered and didn't have it delivered for another two weeks. Guess it was just the lame amount of stock.

'Google trends demonstrate the ability to get people to fight over their statistics'

@Zadaris lol...so many unread words in here...

Honestly, I think we're seeing an increased interest in Nintendo for a number of reasons:

01 Pokemon Go!

02 "Next Gen" console hype has faded and the PS4 pro is kind of a let down. 4K gaming still has a few years before people adopt the tech and it becomes cheap enough for the masses.

03 Dark, gritty, grey and brown shooters with stubble faced protagonists will probably always exist, but were seeing lack of interest in those games.

04 After the gaming media spent the last four years hating the Wii U and demanding nobody buy it, while prediecting the imminent doom of the dedicated handheld, the 3DS has been pretty popular and it reminds people why they love games and Nintendo in the first place. A Nintendo portable with HD resolution is a logical next step.

Hooray! Quorthon is back on form