Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

@Northwind
I don’t think it’s that bad. Even at 10% unemployment that’s still 90% employment. By and large most people still have money to blow.

As for the new revision, I do think it’s got its own use case. A dedicated version for keeping docked that can run games a little better. And of course just being a general improvement as an upgrade for everyone else. In either case, it’s not going to hurt- only help, Switch sales over the final stretch of the generation.

@Magician Nintendo seen pretty confident Switch can sell 30 milions consoles in the fiscal year, Bloomberg said Nintendo have increased the production of Switch in 20%, oblivously Nintendo expect Switch to sell well in this Holiday season, they wont have increased Switch production in 20%, if they not are confident Switch can reach 90/100 milions consoles sold at the end of it fiscal year.

@Northwind well Switch Lite was perfect for people who coudnt afford a Switch, Nintendo with the models/revisions of Switch is trying to reach all kinda of costumers taste, if you want the full experience of Switch, buy the standard Switch/Switch Pro,if you want a more affordable Switch and think Switch is too painful to play, buy a Switch Lite, is just a matter of Nintendo aiming to offer severals models/revisions of Switch that better adapt to everyone tastes, the same situation happened with DS/3DS, by ofering severals models/revisions of Switch, Nintendo can reach more people istead of only relaing in a single Switch model.

@Northwind well if Nintendo decided to end the production of standard Switch in favor of Switch Pro, they gonna face a lot of backlash for that, Nintendo is not gonna be stupid to end the production of standard Switch since it continue to sell well with no sight of slowing down.

everyone do you think Nintendo is gonna release the first action Adventure plataform 3D for the Kirby franchise, the recent Kirby games seen to indicate Nintendo/Hal Laboratory want to make the first 3D Kirby game, we even face the final Boss of Kirby Star Alies in 3D, remember that Hal Laboratory have said the next Kirby game is gonna be very ambicious, the only way i imagine the next Kirby game to be ambicious is to make the first 3D game for the franchise.

@Northwind
Keep in mind anecdotes mean little in the face of national statistics. So even if it was 90% unemployment in your particular area, that doesn’t make up for the fact that it’s 10% across the entire country of 350 million people.

And while it is true the statistics aren’t calculated properly, the key point to remember is they weren’t calculated properly before this whole mess happened, either. So it really doesn’t matter because it’s still an apples to apples comparison. We went from 4% to 10% and regardless of how the metric is calculated, it was calculated the same way at 4% as they’re doing it now at 10%. At the end of the day, it’s the comparison matters, and comparison-wise there’s only an extra 6% unemployed, and, as you correctly stated, that 6% is only of people actually looking for work... and anyone who was previously working a matter of months ago likely hasn’t gotten to the point they’ve just given up looking for work entirely- those people would have to be off unemployment before being discounted, and literally everyone laid off from C19 who hasn’t found another job, is definitely still collecting. The people not looking are likely to be people who were already not looking even before C19.

Point being, it will have some economic impact overall, but if you look at the actual statistics consumer spending is not too far out of trend from before this whole thing started (and that goes doubly for Switch, which has actually increased in sales since March)

@JaxonH Consumer spending in uncertain economic climates can be complex.

What tends to happen in a recession (and this will be a global growth recession) is that people cut back on spending... but it's not on everything. It's "big ticket" purchases that stop first (cars and houses) and less because people don't have money and more because they're concerned that they might lose their jobs in the near future or not get the types of salary increase they were previously expecting.

It sounds like a paradox but a recession can actually mean that many people have more money to spend on trivial nonsense because they haven't stretched themselves to buy a new car or an expensive holiday.
Unemployment figures might grow dramatically but most people (even in a complete depression) do remain employed and unemployment figures in the first instance are usually people in less certain employment anyway.

What all this might mean for the gaming industry I don't know. I probably wouldn't want to launch a £500 console that doesn't really do anything more than provide prettier graphics but the industry has to be benefiting in some ways from the fact that people have been kept indoors and it's in everyone's minds that they might be subject to future similar lockdowns at any time and they might want to avoid/be denied alternative forms of entertainment like cinema's for a long time to come.

@JaxonH @Giancarlothomaz

Nintendo increased their production order from 25 million to 30 million, not their sales forecast. Production orders do not equate to sales, they're two different figures. It'll take over a year (closer to two years) for Nintendo to sell the number of Switches they've ordered. Nintendo Switch won't cross 100 million consoles sold until March 2022 at the earliest.

@Magician Saving this image just in case

@Magician
??? That's not how it works.

An increase is an increase. They were shooting for 20 million this fiscal year. That was their sales goal also. Then they increased production for this fiscal year to 25 mil, then 30 mil. For this fiscal year. An increase of 10 mil for this fiscal year. You dont increase unless you think you're gonna sell.

The report specifically said, "cannot keep up with demand, even after increasing to 25 mil". That's not a year out, that's now. Right now. Just because they havent updated their official sales goal doesnt mean anything. Actions speak louder than words.

You don't make an extra 10 million units unless you think you can sell those extra 10 million units. They're making an extra 10 million units this fiscal year because 20 million cant keep up with demand. Each fiscal year they make a certain amount, and that amount has jumped from 20 million to 30 million. Theres no way you can argue against that and say they dont expect to sell that many. Ig they didnt expect to sell more they wouldn't increase production. Theyd keep it at the same 20 mil it's been the previous years.

@Magician Bold statement Cotton. A price drop might get them over that line before then. Why produce 30 million if you're not expecting them to shift pretty quick? Nintendo don't tend to do that. We've seen repeatedly that demand has, at times, exceeded supply. This new production figure, if accurate, is a good indication of where Nintendo thinks current demand may be.

Switch must be around 65 million now. Let the northern hemisphere spend a winter in lockdown and see what that does to demand too.

Could hit 100 million by Christmas 2021 quite foreseeably to me.

Edit: ninjad by Jax.

@gcunit

At least your guess of 100 million Switches sold by Christmas 2021 is a more reasonable expectation than 100 million sold by June 2021 that Giancarlothomaz suggested. But since you ask, I feel that Nintendo's production order increase suggests that they're supremely confident in their 2021 software lineup. Nintendo doesn't want hardware sales to slow down due to supply shortages next year as they are now.

@Haruki_NLI

Be brave, be bold. Honestly, I feel as though the Switch will eventually surpass the lifetime sales of the DS and the PS2. Although it'll take five or six more years and a new Switch variant. If Nintendo opts to make a mid-gen refresh (Switch Premium, Switch TV, whatever) instead of a Switch successor...it'll get there.

@JaxonH

I'm not arguing whether or not those 30 million Switches will sell. I'm arguing the timeframe at which they'll sell. Just because Nintendo ordered 30 million Switches from manufacturers does not mean that they'll set their sales forecast beyond 20 million for the fiscal year of 2021 (April 2021 to March 2022).

I'd agree that it's possible (especially if they do a mid-gen refresh and a real budget "Switch TV") but I'm not sure I quite see it taking the DS or the PS2. Five or six years is just too long a time with too many unknowns. It could be that Apple or Amazon or Google or Microsoft or Sony launch a true competitor in the same market. It could be that demand falls dramatically as the next gen consoles start to get more games that show off what they can do.

Then again - maybe someone has the next Minecraft or Fortnite or Pokemon lined up for Switch. It could do 200 million with the right software behind it...

@Magician I can see it catching up to DS but PS2 is a lot more gray. The PS2 didn't just sell well because of its massive game library but it was also essentially a multimedia system with stuff like a disc drive for playing movies and basically making it a makeshift DVD player for families. That was an essential part of the appeal for more casual audiences

The Switch is as no-frills and barebones as it gets in terms of multimedia content. It has Hulu, YouTube and some JP-exclusive streaming services but that's it. It's purely a games console which limits its audience somewhat.

I think Switch could have been the best-selling gaming platform of all time if Nintendo had opted to allow it to be used as an android tablet as well.

As JUST a gaming platform... well, I think it'll be their best-selling home console, but I don't think it'll lap the DS.

Imagine saying that with a straight face coming off of the abysmal failure that was the Wii U, lol. It's pretty incredible how thoroughly Nintendo's fortunes improved with this system. They're deeply stupid if they abandon the hybrid format with their next device.

@Ralizah I honestly think their next major home console is probably not going to be a hybrid. They're always attempting to experiment with new ways to play games and the Switch was just another one of those experiments

The Wii was motion controls, the Wii U was with a second screen that complimented the TV, and the Switch was a handheld/home system merged together. They're going to continue experimenting or maybe even take things back to square one if they have to.

@TheFrenchiestFry
I dont think so. This is different.

Nintendo kept changing their approach because their approaches kept not working. So theyd try something different. We can see that when their approaches DID work, they changed very little (15 years with a basic GB and CGB format, nearly 15 years with the dual screen handheld format, etc).

Now that their handheld line is combined with home console, they're not going to abandon their portable market by abandoning the very thing that combined them in the first place. To move away from Switch would be to move away from portable gaming altogether.

And theres no need. Theyve FINALLY found an approach that not only works, but works with the benefit of permanence and longevity. For that reason, they will not be so eager to discontinue from the thing they've searched decades to find- a sustainable approach.

The days of Nintendo changing up their hardware approach significantly... those days are over. We'll still get innovations, we'll still see surprises... but until the day comes hybrid systems stop selling, they will most certainly continue to make hybrid systems.

@TheFrenchiestFry DS and PS2 sold very similar Numbers (both on the 150k+ mark)

@JaxonH although I agree that most likely their next system will be hybrid in nature I would not go beyond that in saying those days are over. Nintendo is and will be Nintendo even in the lastest years you had labo, ring fit and now Mario kart AI.
whatever comes next will have a gimick on its own

I really don't understand why people want Nintendo to be another Playstation or Xbox. We already have two consoles on the market that are practically identical.

If people want Playstation or Xbox, they should just play those.

Clearly a lot of us love the hybrid design. I know I do. I want the Switch to be the next Game Boy or DS. Supported across multiple hardware revisions for a decade or longer.