Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

If it were a game for any other system, I’d expect TGS to be where it gets announced.

But given it’s a Switch game, and Switch games aren’t known for being announced at such conventions (at least, certainly not 3rd party games), it’s hard to know what to expect.

Personally I don’t really care where or when it happens. Just so long as it GETS announced, I’ll be happy. And we’ll be celebrating too. Believe that. We’ll throw ourselves a little Monster Hunter party in the NintendoLife forums, complete with party hats and toots and confetti.

@DannyBoi You're close to the end. I'll say 2 more hours and you'll finish it.

@Magician that make sense, if Capcom decided to reveal the Monster Hunter made specially for Switch at Tokyo Game Show, the game could be overshadowed by Resident Evil 8, that the current game Capcom want to focus.

@Northwind that’s not new. It’s happened to me with things like crowdfunding and pre orders before as my credit card has expired by the time it comes around.

@Northwind oh no! this is not good, i hope Nintendo solve this problem, before games like Legend of Zelda Breath of the Wild 2, Bayonetta 3 e Metroid Prime 4 start the pre-order of this games.

@JaxonH Yeah, Capcom's TGS event would likely be focused on PS5 whereas something like a new Monster Hunter for Switch is more fitting for a Direct.

I totally expect Resi VIII to probably be the focus of Capcom's TGS presence. Monster Hunter for Switch will probably be announced by Nintendo themselves during a Direct or Partner Showcase given that unlike MH World, it doesn't sound like it's a multiplatform title based off the rumors. Monster Hunter has a pretty large history with Nintendo now so it'd probably be better suited to a big "one more thing" kind of showcase like how the July Partner Showcase ended on Shin Megami Tensei III HD and SMTV's re-reveal, given that series has been completely relegated just to Nintendo systems since Strange Journey.

@Grumblevolcano
I could see them closing the show with a reveal trailer, because, despite the fact the audience for TGS is more PS/Xbox oriented, so a full presentation would risk being provocative as a Switch exclusive, at least doing a reveal to close the show would expose the massive fanbase they earned on those platforms to the game, which could do wonders for helping the game reach its fullest potential audience.

Then again, they may just do an isolated reveal like they did with MHGenUlt, or, they could have it be revealed in a Partner Direct (which, coupled with SMT5, would do wonders in saving the reputation of the new Partner Direct format).

If they do a full reveal with dedicated presentation at TGS as a Switch exclusive, we might see societal breakdown as people lose it 😁

https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/nintendo-switch-reco... OMG Switch is becoming to reach 100 milions or more sold at the end of the first half of 2021.

The final bit of maintenance announced weeks ago happens in 4 hours.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/netinfo/en_GB/index.html

@Giancarlothomaz

Impossible.

Nintendo would have to sell roughly 30 million Switches between now and June.

Not...going...to happen.

@Magician
Not by June, you're right about that. But, they did up their target to 30 mil for this fiscal year. They're at 66 mil like a month ago. They should easily hit 80-85 mil by end of the fiscal year. And I wager theyll hit the 100 mil milestone around the end of 2021. I bet reports come out that January discussing holiday sales, and its announced that Switch officially crossed the 100 million threshold over the holidays.

That'll still be insanely impressive. 100 million before the end of 5 years. At this point, Wii and even PS4 is no longer the goal. They're shooting for PS2/DS numbers. 100 mil is no longer the question... the question is now, "Can Switch hit 150 mil".

I don't think it will. I think it'll cap out around 125 million. But still. That's outrageously good, especially given where they were a few years ago with Wii U. Even 3DS wasn't in the same league.

@JaxonH
?

Nintendo forecasted 19 million Switches sold between April 2020 and March 2021. Where are you quoting that 30 million forecast from? Nintendo only just broke the all-time single-year console hardware sales record with 21 million Switches sold from April 2019 to March 2020.

@Magician
It was just in the news.

Nintendo has just upped their goal to 30 million for the fiscal year. They sold like 6 million Switches just in the last quarter alone. They're breaking records left and right.

So the rate at which they're selling, if Nintendo now anticipates 30 million a year, changes the expected units sold to drastically increase. They're at 66 million sold now, and at a rate of 30 million per 12 months, projected out over the next 12 months, means 95 mil by next fall. They could well exceed 100 mil by the end of next year.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-09/nintendo-s...

@Northwind
just because sooooo much of the potential market would have so recently bought a Switch

That’s always the case though. Doesn’t matter when they release, if you look back at the previous 12 months there’s always tens of millions of people who just bought.

There are still 50 million people who bought in the first few years who would be more than happy to upgrade for the last 3 years. And, there’s droves of people who still haven’t bought a Switch, who would then be enticed by yet one more model.

Either way, by that logic (people will be “angry”) then there’s never a good time. You can’t get around the fact that some people will have bought the system before it releases. That’s just how it goes. They did exactly that with the new model with double battery life, which actually replaced the old model, and yet even then, we didn’t see some drastic outburst from the Fanbase. How much less then would we see such an outburst for a completely optional model? Switch Lite fits that exact same bill too. But nobody cared.

There’s always going to be a select minority of people who get angry over everything. Key is to remember they are a vocal minority and at the end of the day nobody really cares. If they bought a system within the month prior to release, they can return it. And if they bought it before that then that’s just how it goes. Like the v2 Switch, life goes on. The 3DS was a special situation where the actual price was cut by 33% mere months after launch. That’s not the same thing as releasing an optional model halfway through the lifespan which almost everyone expects anyways.

And as with Switch Lite, an additional model on the market will increase Switch family sales in totality, and that’s what counts. Doesn’t really matter what percentage split it’s in, or how much of each model is sold. As long as they see a net sum increase, that’s all that matters. Although it’s hard to imagine a net sum increase over the now 30 million projected unit sales, it could ensure that goal is sustained over the next several years.

lmao I love the byline of that new NL article about how none of the top selling Switch games of the last month were third party

"Poor third parties don't stand a chance"

It's like the writer was trying to desperately spin the narrative that next to no one looks into getting a Switch for multiplats by saying Nintendo's games are superior anyway lol

@Grumblevolcano I wonder what's going on?

Huh. Looks like we’re getting BotW 2 this year after all, and I’m not talking about Age of Calamity

@Northwind
I think what you're getting at is, that a new console would have more impact if released when sales need a boost, as opposed to when they're already soaring.

And I dont disagree. But they're gonna do what they're gonna do, and I think a new system next year will only help ensure they sell another 30 million for FY22 and maybe 20+ in FY23.

I think when discussing the current economic condition, folks tend to forget how fiscally irresponsible consumers are. For every person saving right now, there's at least 3 spending.

@Northwind
Don’t discount group 3. You could’ve made the exact same arguments about the switch lite, and yet we saw a significant bump in sales after the release of the switch lite, which has continued to this day.

Not only that, but a new model isn’t a “new generation” it’s just a revision, and that’s only going to increase potential sales. Even if it doesn’t increase a single sale over this year sales, simply continuing the high sales as a trend is mission accomplished. You don’t continue high sales for seven years by leaving your hardware to get stale. Nintendo knows as well as everyone else that you have to release revisions every few years to keep people interested. And not just interested in six months, but interested 2 to 3 years from now when the current model will be well over half a decade old.

And group 1 might not be interested right away, but they certainly might 2 to 3 years from now. If the only reason they don’t buy one is because they recently bought a switch, then that’s not a permanent hindrance, that’s just a temporary one. As soon as their switch is a few years old they’ll look to upgrade.

It’s not rocket science. No need to over analyze the situation. New hardware insures sales stay high and if they want to switch to be a massive success to its fullest potential, they need to ensure sales stay high and they need to ensure the interest and engagement remains high. One of the best ways to do that besides software, is to release new hardware revisions every few years. Just like we saw with Switch Lite, a new revision will increase total net sales. We don’t know how much, could only be 10%. But that’s about what we saw with the Lite, and that adds up. Extra 10% on 20-30 million a year is another 10 million consoles, extra, over the next few remaining years of the generation. And it’s not just extra sales, but it’s also ensuring the current sales don’t drop.