Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

I think it's interesting that I'm called a troll for saying that someone thinks the NX is not a home console. That it's not some kind of Wii U successor. Then they go on about how Nintendo could be ditching the home console market entirely with the NX.

......... and I'm the one who is misreading people

I don't think either I nor Skywake has ever said it would only be a PS4-clone. You are the one bringing it out.

My prediction (which of course can be wrong)

• It is an home console
• It is x86 based
• It is more powerful than Wii U, possibly up to PS4
• It may or may not have a "Gimmick", but it won't be too substantial.
• They will have a substantial game support from launch (i.e Zelda, Mario galaxy)

Wii U got flak for mainly these things:

• underpowered for it's price
• hard to code for (BS argument, but perception is important)
• The gimmick drove up the cost of the console. (same with 3ds really)
• They had bad games at launch. (2d mario didn't cut it etc). (also true for 3ds)

Therefore I think they will try and have a power level near the competition, the gimmick won't be expensive (maybe haptics, aka a more finetuned rumble). X86 is logical, since powerpc doesn't have the same support from IBM anymore. PowerPC means that it will be harder to have BC, so that will be skipped. And if they skip that, they can skip the second screen, reducing cost.

And they will do their best to have a really good launch up.

There is another scenario, but I don't see it as likely. That is an underpowered console, with a substantial gimmick but still cheap. Aka "The-Wii-Again". I doubt it would work nowadays though.

I agree with this but I'd put a range on the third point. I think it'll be something between about twice as capable as the Wii U and the rumoured specs of the PS4 Neo. I say more than 2x more powerful than the Wii U because every console successor not named "Wii" has done that.

And I think they'd be safer if the spec was closer to the PS4 i.e. more than 2x. Otherwise they end up stuck in the same spot they are now. With games skipping the NX because it's "not powerful enough". If that image sticks again then they're in trouble.

I'm not sure about the backwards compatibility. Iwata called it "a lot of effort goes to waste" if they don't elegantly "absorb the wii U architecture". That could of course just be corporate speak for "we screwed up, we'll phase out without too much pain" - or even mean they'll just emulate wii U on nx like wii U does with wii...

I expect some kind of differentiating factor in NX. The wii (revolution) was kept under wraps so the competition wouldn't copy them easily. NX is probably just waiting for sony and ms to play their vr game. Once the product is out there and they need to support it for 5 years, nintendo has a green field of whatever they introduce for themselves.

Fact is the current scenario feels far more wii like than I care to admit.

I find it hard to see success in just matching the PS4, but with a minor gimmick. PS4 is too established as the leader in the market, so not enough people that skipped the Wii U are going to decide NX is worth backing.

Anyone who already owns a PS4 or XBone is unlikely to buy into NX if they haven't already bought into Wii U (because evidently Nintendo's IPs are not enough to convince them)... unless the NX does something that substantially differs from the established competition, or Nintendo really raises the bar with its software and we see a level of innovation akin to Mario 64/Ocarina of Time/Goldeneye, which I find unlikely. Apart from Virtual Reality, the market has been evolving, not revolving, for some time (well, pretty much ever since 3D exploration became a thing with the aforementioned Mario64 et al).

Anyone who DOESN'T own one of the 3 main home consoles currently... well, I can't see that being a particularly big market for the NX, not unless it has something to tap that blue ocean.

So the foreseeable routes to NX success, in my book, are:

• Setting a new standard in software through a combination of hardware capability and software design (unlikely)
• Providing a new must-have gimmick that doesn't cost too much (difficult to see happening, but Wii...)
• Incorporating portable gaming to the extent that it acts as a successor for the 3DS market. This is what I see as the best option, currently, but it doesn't mean the first two options can't also be applied also for combined effect.

Just putting a powerful console out there with a Nintendo sticker and third party games is not going to bring enough people back to Nintendo. In fact, it will probably see more people turning away from Nintendo as it will demonstrate that it's no longer capable of industry-leading ideas. Nintendo needs to be different (reflecting it's new 'There's no play like it' slogan).

The only other hope it has is to rejuvenate the mainstream public perception of Nintendo with a movie that makes as big an impression as the likes of Toy Story, which is a billion-to-one shot, and hard to ever imagine given the last foray into movies that Mario made and all the competition it faces in the current animated/CGI movie market.

WiiAgain is a blue ocean strategy, which nintendo always seem to be chasing. And they have ramped up their numbers of studios (2nd parties) and are trying to cater to new gamers (i.e splatoon). They have also started to have more intimated relationships with some 3rd parties (Hyrule warriors, Bayonetta), more like 2.5 parties.

But those points also works in the other scenario, in where Nintendo tries and recapture part of the console market. Nintendo would want to recapture a bit of the others market. Having a strong launch means strong sales. Which means 3rd parties would be more willing to invest in the console.

Also it is not especially hard to have ps4 graphics, a low-end gaming laptop (geforce 860m) has a graphical chip comparable with the ps4.

@erv: this doesn't mean it will be 100% compatible with Wii Us tool set. It means they don't want to build everything from scratch, which they seem to have been doing every generation. This usually means having new people manage the product. Which means the old guy in charge gets fired or gets a new position inside the company. The latter seems to be common in Japan.

I agree on the comments about the state of the market. The generation isn't over yet and there are always going to be more gamers. If that wasn't the case then the PS4 wouldn't be selling at the rate it is.

@erv
The Wii U doesn't emulate the Wii. But you're right. If NX is powerful enough is should be able to emulate the Wii U. But when they said that the NX would absorb the Wii U? I assumed they meant in terms of development tools and account systems. Not necessarily BC

@gcunit I think you're spot on with that first statement. I still expect nintendo at some point to redefine what a game system is, not just stuck in the "console" paradigm. If they break away from tv's everything changes.

@Therad you could be right. I don't know if it means that, though. It was said in conjunction with a question about what's next, as the wii U was investor disappointment. It communicates to me that scrapping what is in there is definitely on the table instead of off.

For nx it's not about the chipsets, that's a battle nintendo won't want to fight with electronic powerhouses. It's about the concept first and foremost.

@NewAdvent You make a good point in that sales figures for current gen suggest there's still a lot of people on last gen, but it goes back to my point that the NX software can't just match PS4 software in terms of graphics/depth, it somehow has to stand out. Super Mario 3D World 2 or Super Mario Galaxy 3 can't just be iterations of the previous titles but with added anti-aliasing and extra textures.

Same may apply to Mario Kart 9, I fear. MK8 only carried Wii U so far, because as good as it is (and I think it's really good - my favourite game), it's not much more than an iteration of MKWii to outsiders.

Honestly is there really enough of the Wii u audience to justify full on BC?

That's obviously something Nintendo has to judge for itself. BC isn't imperative whatever the size of existing purchasers. If anything though, a small existing userbase could be taken as a good thing for BC - if Nintendo could get NX in enough new hands than there's a host of quality titles already there to sell. Though VC could obviously fill some of that demand, the majority still prefer physical media to downloads.

@gcunit well if NX indeed uses carts y'all can forget it lol said before and I'll say it again if it's in great if not oh well. Zelda's gonna be the last important Wii u game that you'll be able to get on nx anyway.

@gcunit don't forget that a lot of previous console owners are checking out as gaming on mobile suits them enough to not want or prioritise a console purchase. I still think nintendo will just announce nx after the new sony stuff has launched, or at least believe they should, so they get their own space to move in. Then all of those challenges you listed matter less.

Except it kinda didn't. The big gimmicks of the Gamecube generation was the HDD in the XBox and DVD playback on the PS2. It's a similar deal if you go back to the N64 where the huge point of difference was the storage media used. With the SNES and Mega Drive/Genesis? It was about the SNES' better sound, colour and library vs Sonic. If anything the last two home consoles have been the only ones where Nintendo had some kind of stand-out feature of any kind. And during these last two generations it has been a contest of three platforms where the non-Nintendo platforms are largely identical.

I think it's a mistake to assume that being a "clone" of the other two in terms of the hardware itself is a bad thing. Nintendo would, if anything, be wise to make the hardware itself as similar as the other guys as possible. Then differentiate in terms of software, services and accessories including controllers and so on.

@erv I had considered competition from mobile, but if anything I reckon it's the other way around. Existing console users will, by and large, continue to be interested in consoles, and I wouldn't be surprised if market data shows that 18-40yr olds are the biggest demographic. It's the kids and teenagers of today who may never bother getting into consoles in the first place because of mobile gaming/internet distractions.

In you scenario, NX would be their next handheld and they drop home consoles. Is this likely?

It's been speculated alot with offical comments about the NX being a new line rather than a sucessor to a specifc machine and obseravations that the West is dropping interest in portable consoles whilst the East dropping interest in home consoles so a compromise is needed being used as evidence it will be.

This approach wouldn't be too bad if all 3 consoles launched at the same time, but the PS4 is walking away with the title this generation (VGChartz suggest PS4 is outselling the combined sales of the PS3 and XB360 at the same point in the lives of those consoles) and will have a 45-50 million head-start over NX.

There can't be much doubt that the general perception is that the PS4 is the console to own right now, and it's selling well. Just cloning it, sticking Mario and Zelda on it, and giving it a novel controller, I don't think will overcome that. And let's not let ourselves dream that Nintendo will be able to provide services that compete with Sony's when coming from so far behind ( not saying Nintendo can't do it, but I'd be very surprised).

And how many 3rd parties will agree to developing an NX exclusive with an infant userbase when an exclusive on PS4 already has 40 million potential buyers?

@Project_Dolphin and I disagree. Letdowns will happen no matter what but announcing a new console too early allows your competition to steal the spotlight.

The NX doesn't have to win this generation. If Nintendo can sell 40 million units of the NX before they replace it then I think that should be a victory. I know consumers like to hype up the "Console War" in their heads but Nintendo doesn't have to win, they just have to do better than the Wii U, they have to succeed.