Topic: The Nintendo Switch Rumor and Speculation Thread

@GrailUK
Definitely not reading your post as an angry reply and it's certainly not my internal monologue when I post on here. I think most of your points are decent but there are a few I'm not so convinced about

Firstly, the sales were down 20% between their projected sales for 2023 i.e. March 2023 to March 2024 and their actual sales numbers for 2022. Note their 2023 projection would include expectations for TotK and Wonder. They were also down 20% between 2022 and 2021 and between 2020 and 2021. I'm not sure that the decline from 2021 -> 2023 can entirely be put down to "coming down from the COVID peak". Also their forecast last year overestimated sales for 2022, clearly they thought the OLED SKU was going to change the equation more than it did. If this trend continues? 2024 they would drop to 12mill units sold

Also I did sneak this point in my post but I probably didn't paint it as black and white as I probably could have. This year on their projection the Switch will sell 15mill units to end in March next year on an install base of 140mill. The DS sold 20mill units in 2010 to finish the year with an install base on 140mill units. Nintendo announced the 3DS in March 2010, showed it off at E3 2010 and launched in Feb/Mar 2011.

Now again, I'm not a fan of using "precedent" to try and predict these things at all. But we have certainly seen this movie before. Sales peak, new SKU as soon as the sales decline starts to hit then new hardware before sales get a chance to dip to half of their peak

Mostly, I just don't think they'll want to do their EOFY report next March and come out to say "Switch sales will be half of what they were in 2020 for 2024 and we have nothing to say about future plans at this time". I think they'll want to point to the announcement trailer at least and say this is what we intend to do this year. Also, I don't think they announce this thing and wait like a year to release it. So for both of those things to happen there's a VERY small window here

Basically, sales are in a decline, we have the actual figures to show this it isn't just a theoretical discussion. The trend would suggest that they'll probably be sitting at around 12mill units sold in 2024. I don't think they would want to show that to investors without having a plan to show. Which means they kinda have to announce new hardware before March 2024. And with Nintendo's current strategy when it comes to announce -> release? There would be less than 6 months between announcement and release

Which IMO leaves us with two windows:
Announcement window: September 2023 through to April 2024
Release window: March 2024 through to October 2024

Could it be in the second half of next year? Definitely, I have to concede that point. But I would say the majority of that bell curve sits in early 2024. And I don't think 2025 is at all on the table. Then again, if you go to the start of this thread I was talking about how Nintendo did need a mid-gen refresh in 2021. Which we did get, but not in a way that I thought made sense. So I could well be wrong again

Oh, and I don't think they're at all concerned about burning people who buy the Switch just before the reveal. Nor should they be. As you said people buying into Switch this late in the cycle are almost by definition not early adopters, they're not the target market for new hardware anyways. Also you have to make that call at some point. Also the fact that Super Mario Wonder wouldn't have taken advantage of the additional power? I mean sure, of course. And that fact makes it a perfect release for the tail end of a console cycle

@skywake Right, I better start saving up then hahaha!

I think the whole "Nintendo's always a generation behind" thing that started with the Wii makes the concept of a Switch 2 rather ominous. PS2/Xbox compares to the Wii, PS3/360 compares to Wii U/Switch and so PS4/XB1 compares to Switch 2.

Note here I'm talking about the platforms as a whole. PS2/Xbox were the early days of online multiplayer and digital of which Wii was the same for Nintendo. PS3/360 brought stuff like subscriptions, DLC and digital only games into the mainstream of which Wii U/Switch was the same for Nintendo.

PS4/XB1 was the rise of the big problems of modern gaming. Free to play on console, microtransactions (loot boxes and then the microtransactions store + battle pass combo), live service as a whole, platform holders becoming over-reliant on CoD, etc.

This is not meant to be an exhaustive list but I hope it puts across my point well. My concern is Nintendo will go all out with those bad PS4/XB1 features with Switch 2. Stuff like Nintendo killing off the Splatoon franchise if Microsoft's acquisition of Activision goes through, if MK9 exists it being riddled with microtransactions like Tour, etc.

1 thing i would love for Nintendo to Copy from Sony and Xbox is TWITCH ONLINE BROADCASTING YOUR GAMEPLAY So i Can Stream myself playing Ocarina of time or the Gameboy Advance games and the New games too like Totk

Nintendo may be one generation behind in pure 'processing power' but they are definitely not following along in other ways. I feel like they tend to be one generation ahead in certain types of innovation which gets copied later. Also, they are occasionally like 3 generations behind ( cough mm2 multiplayer like it's 1999). Basically, they're just on a different path and I'm (mostly) happy if they stay that way.

I think there is zero chance they would add microtransactions to MK9 or that they would rely less on their own exclusives just because they e.g. got access to CoD.

@FishyS Relying less on exclusives makes less and less sense in the console market every day. Nintendo knows this, Sony knows this and (even when they say the opposite) Microsoft knows this. Sony is now in trouble because one of their most popular games was a third party and was recently bought by a direct competitor. And Microsoft bought that publisher because of that (alongside other things like mobile expansion but don't tell me that getting the publisher that owns the series that is number one in sales in NA every year didn't entice them).

Besides, Nintendo strongests asset is their original IPs. Nintendo owns Mario, Zelda, a big chunk of Pokemon and plety of smaller IPs that are riped for media expansion. They would be foolish to ignore that just because CoD could be in their consoles again.

Also, I hope Nintendo stays clear of microtransactions for premium games, hopefully their kid friendly image helps in avoiding that. The fact that it got so normalized for full price games like Diablo 4 (or even the new Street Fighter) to have MTX to the point that there are plenty of people defending it online is sad. Like, I remember in the Diablo subreddit people making fun of "poor people" that didn't pay extra for early access to the game and I... wow...

Speaking of bell curves, I took the FY sales data for Switch in the first 6 years, plus the FY7 projection of 15m, and used as calibrators to best-fit a bell curve over the data set, and use to predict future sales trends. This of course depends on the current trend not changing. A price cut would change the trend, as would a next gen announcement/release. This is purely for estimating FY sales if Nintendo continued with the status quo.

Don't expect it to be perfect. True sales histograms are typically skewed- a log-normal or Weibull distribution is probably more appropriate. But the site I used didn't offer those options. We work with what we've got.

This does seem to indicate that Switch could break the PS2 record provided a Switch 2 announcement doesn't break the sales trend. Estimated 19 million total for the next 3 Fiscal Years ending March 2027, at which point the system would be dead, run through the natural course of its lifespan. However. A price cut could counter a next gen announcement. Not sure where the threshold lies for next gen announcement though, where before that point even a price cut couldn't get it past 158m, but after that point it could.

I can't wait to play my portable PS4 (Switch successor) in 2026.

@Grumblevolcano
I tend to agree with what @FishyS said. There are some areas that Nintendo tends to be behind the curve but there are others where they're well ahead, ones where they gamble on things that nobody follows and even some they never follow

For example the DS wasn't the first touch screen device but it was certainly the first mainstream device that used a touch screen for gaming. Sure there were PDAs and kiosk devices before it but the DS was a touch screen gaming device years before the iPhone launched. And obviously we can't ignore the Wii era and rush from the competition to put motion sensors in their controllers.... only to promptly ignore the benefits of them....

And on the other side? I mean we can point to horsepower but I think the Switch is in a different category now so I don't think that tracks anymore. But I will say that Nintendo has always been slow or at least different when it comes to storage. I mean the original XBox came with an 8GB HDD, Nintendo first shipped a console with 8GB of storage 10 years after that and by then Microsoft was shipping their consoles with 500GB HDDs. I mean I totally respect Nintendo's historical distain for mechanical storage, especially in regards to the PSP, but they've certainly been undeniably behind in this space and often for no clear cost or usability benefit

Though again, I don't think the Switch can really be criticised for storage. It is a portable device, they were kinda forced to go with flash and while 32GB in 2017 wasn't great it wasn't horrible. However I think the Wii and Wii U certainly can be accused of being a bit too cheap. And I'm certainly worried that their next hardware won't expand the storage as much as it probably should. I know I'm like a broken record with this but really, worth repeating, SSDs are REALLY cheap these days... like blink and you'll miss it comically cheap...

@skywake @FishyS I wasn't saying that Nintendo's behind in all areas (of course they're ahead in many areas), rather that each blue ocean console is like if you re-experienced the previous gen for PS/Xbox but with Nintendo's unique twist applied to it. That's one of the many reasons the Switch is such a fantastic console, because they're treating a lot of things like how PS3/360 was in 7th gen.

@JaxonH We don't actually know if the Switch could see a price drop. Current climate is everything becoming more expensive. A price freeze is pretty much a price cut in real terms. Hard to say. Does look like 10 million a year is the usual spot for an announcement. I do hope the Switch becomes the best selling console ever. It totally deserves to be. And the marketing writs itself for a successor lol.

@GrailUK id agree but I’d also say that a bundle with a digital copy of a first party evergreen title (like MK8) is effectively a discount detached from the price of components.

That’s something that Nintendo could easily do at any point.

@StuTwo Yeah, bundles is a good shout mate

@GrailUK
I think eventually it'll get a price drop, even if it's after the successor launches. However, by that point it may be too late to make any real difference in breaking the record.

I hope it cracks PS2 also. Just for all the people who were, "lulz this POS will flop worse than Wii U" and "hahaha NO, I can't see this system outselling 3DS, much less Wii". Even recently discussions asking, "Hey, now that Switch is at 126m sold with no price drop or successor announced, will it break the record?" you still see the same, "seriously doubt it, reasons reasons reasons". Which, maybe it won't, it's certainly not a foregone conclusion yet. But acting as if it's a preposterous notion? It's like, constant denial. All the time. And it would just be nice to see those people eat crow.

But even if it doesn't, it's gonna be within 10 mil for sure. Switch hits 140m next March. Even if they shadow dropped the Switch 2 and kept MSRP for Switch to its dying breath, it would still yank another 5-10m+ as it died off (probably 6m then 3m then 1m). So worst case scenario is literally single digit millions away from the record. So close you can whiff it.

Too presumptuous to call the Peach title "casual" when we know little about it.

No, a blowout in the final year wouldn't be smart. There's only so much resources for game development, you're not going to be able to have blowout years every years, and it's much more important for the launch year to have that blowout year to build momentum. Plus if you have a lot of titles in that final year, late adopters might be inclined to buy the old hardware thinking there's still more coming, they won't be able to afford the new hardware when it releases. Short of adding multiple new dev studios (which it doesn't quite seem like they're doing, they have been trying to hire more people, but the output hasn't really increased as a result of that and it feels more like the hirings are to maintain their output while improving the graphics, not increasing their output), they're playing a zero sum game with their lineup, so they're going to have to take an L at some point with a lighter lineup. The later years of a console makes the most sense for this.

We still have 6 months of 2023 left, it is too soon to say they're not releasing a hardware variant this year.

These two points (which are really the same point) are the big reason why I'm skeptical the Switch is dying, in fact at this point I'm not even sure the successor is releasing in 2024 at all. If they're really trying for a 2017-esque launch year for the successor, they really shouldn't have released games like Splatoon 3, TotK, and Super Mario Bros. Wonder during the last few years of the Switch, those would've been much better off as launch titles for the successor. Those three are the kind of top shelf titles that a 2017-esque lineup needs to impress early adopters and give it that instant coffee the Switch had.

@Bolt_Strike
I don't think so. Perhaps "casual" isn't the right word, but the game is starring Princess Peach, which will overwhelmingly target women and girls who likely don't share a major overlap with the core demographic of enthusiasts who tend to be day one adopters. That's a reasonable assumption based off the character, the previous Peach game, and the laid back style of gameplay from the brief snippet. Not to say core Nintendo fans will be exclusively disinterested, as Animal Crossing, Kirby, Yoshi, etc all appeal to an extent to the enthusiast crowd. Just... less so.

As for your next point, I'm not arguing whether it's a "good idea" or not. I merely presented arguments from both sides.

There's only so much resources for game development, you're not going to be able to have blowout years every years, and it's much more important for the launch year to have that blowout year to build momentum

I don't necessarily disagree. But it doesn't change the fact Sony did it with PS4>PS5, and it is a viable strategy that worked for them. So it would be foolish to not consider the possibility, especially with Nintendo's past history of "light final year" not working out so well, despite the sound logic in doing so.

We still have 6 months of 2023 left, it is too soon to say they're not releasing a hardware variant this

That's definitely true, and it's why I'm watching for a Lite OLED announcement late next month. If it comes, we have at least another year. If it doesn't, then 2024 is looking ever more likely. July/August will be key to watch.

As for your final comment, ya. I see the logic in that. It's a big reason why I think a later release is possible. At the same time, because I'm not rigidly adopting a viewpoint I want to marry at this point, I also think it's possible they're trying something different imitating the PS4>PS5 transition, which saw multiple blockbuster titles the final year to fire up the base to buy the next console based on emotion and hype rather than a logical purchase based on actual launch year lineup. Not expressing an opinion one way or the other as to whether that's wise. But it is possible. PS5 sold great with nothing but Returnal, Demon Souls and Ratchet and Clank. I suspect Switch 2 could do the same with a 3D Mario, Metroid Prime 4 and a Zelda remake.

At the end of the day though, the number one piece of evidence to me, is whether or not a revision is announced in the next 60 days. If it does that likely means we have 12-18 months. Then again, perhaps even a final low-price-point revision wouldn't preclude a 2024 release. After all, 3DS saw the New 2DS XL drop within the final year before Switch released (at least, I'm pretty sure). But a revision is not announced in the next 60 days... well. I can't imagine why they wouldn't if they have another 1.5-2 years to go. So that would convince me of spring 2024, maybe fall 2024 at the very latest.

Peach game gonna be the new Elden Ring!

More seriously, different people mean different things when they say 'casual' but personally I'm hoping this is a really polished Nintendo game which leads to another ongoing sub-series in the Mario franchise. This is definitely the game I'm looking most forward to in 2024.

Edit: Technically we know so little about the Peach game, it could be on Switch 2 using a new gimmick. Seems unlikely, but it's a possibility.

@Grumblevolcano
I get what you're saying I'm just not sure I agree. I mean I went on a technical tangent going on about storage and interfaces but my point was a bit broader than that. While there's certainly overlap and some ideas are adopted across the board I think all of these major platforms have their own philosophies and paths. Whether that's Nintendo's push to use with cheap but durable technologies, Sony's obsession with pushing their own media formats, Microsoft's ultimate goal of Windows in every room or Valve's goal of being a single store across all platforms

Will Nintendo adopt some of the vices that plagued the PS4 and XBOne? I mean most of the things you listed are things that Nintendo has already publicly pushed back against. Not necessarily for the benefit of the consumer but sometimes inadvertently. Nintendo has free to play games and games with microtransactions on mobile but they were taken there kicking and screaming. Nintendo is very reluctant to de-value their IP. They've had an opportunity to do these things and their games could introduce them, infact there are games on Switch that do have these things. But Nintendo haven't really done it

But in the broader sense? I mean sure, the hardware will change to become closer to the PS4 spec which will mean some of the software ideas will follow. And even without the hardware change, some of the ideas that have worked on other platforms will be adopted on whatever their new platform is. But they'll also leave a lot of stuff on the table I think. I mean, Nintendo has developed 4 platforms since the introduction of achievements as a concept on consoles. We still don't have achievements. That's a deliberate platform level decision, not some technical limitation

I don't really agree with this take and I think it's a bit rough to compare the situation now to the Wii U -> Switch transition. They're making these decisions based on the position they're in not what they expect the next hardware will be and the Wii U was definitely not in the same situation the Switch is in now

The more apt analogues would be the transitions from Wii, DS and 3DS. The Wii had a TotK equivalent in its last year, Nintendo didn't make that a cross-generation release like they did with Twilight Princess or Breath of the Wild. Also the 3DS got Samus Returns, Ultra Sun/Moon, Mario & Luigi, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, Pikmin, Miitopia and Mario Party in 2017 as well as Fire Emblem, Pokemon, Kirby, Mario & Luigi, Mario Maker and Hyrule Warriors in 2016. I think the Switch lineup for 2023/24 is kinda looking similar to that

Am I hyped about Pikmin 4 and Super Mario Wonder? Sure. Do I think Tears of the Kingdom is easily one of the best games on the platform? Definitely. But do I also feel like this lineup is about what you'd typically see for a late generation successful console? Also yes. I don't think Super Mario Wonder is the sort of title you hold onto for a new platform. Nor are Pikmin 4, Super Mario RPG and certainly not that Peach game

Tears of the Kingdom? I mean sure, definitely a game you might hold onto..... but it's also a game that was promised for Switch and very publicly delayed. And ultimately the Switch is more Wii than Wii U and in that sense Tears of the Kingdom is more Skyward Sword than Breath of the Wild

As for what they're holding onto for the launch? I mean, at this point I think we can fairly safely assume Metroid Prime 4. And while I personally don't think Mario Kart 9 needs to happen I think it'd be a fairly easy way to print some money. Then maybe some 3D Mario to throw in there, certainly something none of us are going to be able to predict

But I also stand firmly by my long standing belief that existing titles will get visual enhancement patches. And if that happens we can throw a lot of this conventional wisdom of launch titles out the window. I mean maybe you buy a Switch on day 1 for Metroid Prime 4 or new 3D Mario.... but maybe someone else buys it because they slept on TotK and the improved visuals the new hardware pushed them over the line. Not unlike how back in the day I slept on the DS but picked one up when they released the DS Lite. Or how when I got a GBC as a kid I played through my old GB games in a new light

Hell, maybe new hardware will be enough to get people to give Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity or Pokmeon Legends Arceus another spin. I mean I know I for one will be watching with interest what happens with Pokemon when the new hardware comes out.....

I'm not gonna attempt to argue with any bell curves or talk of carrying momentum from one cycle to the next etc., this is all I got for now: