I'm not convinced we see new hardware (let alone release it lol) firt half of next year. Nintendo are going after sales this holiday season (and Mario is going to do very well) as well as having a couple of games in development. I wonder (pardon the pun) if we'll see a Mario edition Switch. They have a clear strategy of prolonging the lifecycle (and they had this road map when they were projecting a 10 year lifecycle.) Mario Movie and Tears of the Kingdom have made Nintendo very high profile and in a place any game developer want's to be in. 130 million userbase (and rising) still buying games! Stll. No. Price. Drop!!! And I reckon Metroid Prime 4 will be it's swan song. I dunno, there is a strong sense of closure with that game.
Sony and Microsoft let the third party tail wag the dog decades ago (look at the FTC case lol.) It's a little frustrating to hear folk wanting Nintendo to chase specs. I get it, the Switch is popular, so it's drawn in that crowd too. But they are making games for one system. It used to be 2 so they likely have the resources for some to be working on the next system while the Switch has more handheldy (probably more derogatory than I wanted it to sound - but better than 'low effort' etc etc) types games. I can't see their next console releasing without a 3D Mario a new Splatoon, Mario Kart and a teaser for the next Zelda game and that doesn't sound like next year to me...as always. very happy to be proven wrong so I can buy one lol! But something I haven't seen anyone mention is how long any transisiton phase would last. I reckon folk are using Ps4 -> PS5 as a metric but it doesn't ring true due to Covid etc. It will be shorter than that I would have thought.
@GrailUK I never understood why people take so much stock when anyone says their current console will have a 10 year lifecycle. They almost all last 10 years, it’s just that they’ve long since moved onto the next console way before it gets there.
As for next Zelda game, if Nintendo are waiting to have a trailer ready we could be waiting years. I don’t see that game coming out for a long long time. Perhaps right at the end of the next console.
NEW WEBSITE LAUNCHED! Regular opinion articles, retro game reviews and impression pieces on new games! ENGAGE VG: EngageVG.com
@GrailUK Development time is getting longer and longer with each new generation and they’re going to have to redo all assets and I imagine create a whole new world. Plus they will always be needing to outdo the last game which is going to be a massive undertaking.
NEW WEBSITE LAUNCHED! Regular opinion articles, retro game reviews and impression pieces on new games! ENGAGE VG: EngageVG.com
I've got a pitch for the next Zelda game that will wow people, is a logically next step and not take decades to make. It's like Breath and Kingdom Sad still but you now have a fishing rod like you should have done in the last games!
@GrailUK These forums don't have a like button, but I like your post
As far as transitions go, I can see some of the OG Switch models still being on sale and supported with games for a couple more years like the 3/2DS models were. I think Nintendo may only have new hardware exclusives 4 times a year at the beginning, as they'll still be getting their development cadence up for the higher specs.
@GrailUK Early 2024 seems unlikely to me as well, but sometime during 2024 seems plausible, although not guaranteed. As for Mario Kart 9, it wouldn't shock me if they essentially had that ready and waiting to release after a sufficient pause after the booster pass for MK8 finishes. A new 3D Mario could certainly be near existence too. As for Zelda, they could always advertise TotK DLC for both systems and also a new 2D Zelda (maybe only for the new console, depending on what new gimmick is involved although for 2D Zelda I wouldn't mind if the 'gimmick' was just stunning artistic graphics). No clue about Splatoon, but assuming Splatoon 3 still works on the new console, they could always focus on a new Smash game or fill in the gap with something like ARMS 2.
As for 'spec chasing', I couldn't care less about most PS5-type games and I play a ton of retro-style games, but even I am feeling Switch is getting long in the tooth and could do a bit more with their ports and even a couple of their exclusives if they had more power.
@FishyS@GrailUK I'm working under the (very safe?) assumption that the next new 3D Zelda is 2028 - 2031, therefore I have convinced myself that we'll get full Metroid Prime style remasters of WindWaker and Twilight Princess to fill the gap until 2028-2031...imagine full on redone graphics for those two Zelda games with DLSS etc - it could be epic! Throw in a new 2D game + a remaster of A Link Between Worlds and we could have some great Zelda content on the the "Switch 2"...
@MarioBrickLayer that’s a lot of work to kill time for a Zelda game that would take even more work. Let’s be honest, Wind Waker and Twilight Princess absolutely don’t need remasters in Prime fashion at least. Not yet. Both games have aged quite well (not saying Prime 1 hadn’t) and aren’t in need of remasters. HD ports are easier and they get the games on the new system easier and faster. Remember, Prime 1 remastered took years and Retro Studios called upon lots and lots and lots of other smaller studios to help them. Nintendo would be better off investing remaster/remake time into Zelda games that have been somewhat forgotten and tougher to access. Both Ocarina and Majora’s Mask got remastered for 3DS, so what’s the point. If Link’s Awakening got a remake, it’s only natural that the next games in line should be Oracle of ages/seasons realistically. Both are fellow gameboy titles that admittedly don’t look that great today. Whereas both WW and TP look quite nice even today. Their respective art styles are to thank for that. HD for those two, potential remakes for Ages/Seasons. That can fill the gap of time between the next instalment, because that’s going to take well over half a decade for sure.
Wait, why do we need a signature? Eh, I don’t know. Here’s your signature.
@TheBigBlue It's all speculation, so you might be right, but I don't think so. Is not clear how long the Prime Remaster took, it was rumoured for a long time, but we don't know when work started and finished.
Ages/Seasons could end up on NSO, it's more likely we'll see DS games on NSO than Gamecube. There is a big audience who haven't played these games plus remasters of the Oracle games would not sell anywhere near the same as WindWaker and Twilight Princess.
We know the Oracle games are coming to NSO and Minish Cap came to NSO in February so if remakes were to happen they'd be years away. So it feels like we'd see something like:
2024 - ALBW port/remaster to same extent as what's happening for Luigi's Mansion 2)
2025 - Spinoff
2026 - WWHD/TPHD (the normal Wii U port treatment)
@GrailUK
Several things make me think it's the first half of next year:
1. Their forecasted sales for Switch are dropping. Still high but well and truly in the decline side of that bell curve. They're projecting hardware sales to be down by ~20% this year, 15mill units to be at 140mill units by next March. And while their last Direct was definitely solid I don't think there are any "turn the ship around" titles on the horizon. They'll want to have something to show investors for their next fiscal year report
2. We've known for a while this hardware exists but we're getting to the point now where third parties are actively talking about it. Publicly. And Nintendo is answering questions about it when asked with slightly less PR heavy than usual answers. With talk about how to handle supply, account transitions and so on. The next piece of hardware is becoming less theoretical by the day
3. Supply constraints have eased. If you look at prices of components in the PC space you can kinda see this already. There are obviously some companies still trying to pretend the environment hasn't changed (coughnvidiacough) but we're starting to see the prices of RAM, flash, CPUs and the like really start to come down. Inflation is biting globally for sure but electronics kinda live in opposite land
4. The early year launch worked for the Switch. I know I like to say on here that we can't look at past patterns to predict what will happen next but still. It did work for Switch. I think what would kinda make sense would be like a January reveal with a May release. Because as soon as you announce you create a bit of a dead-zone for the Switch and that Jan-Mar period is kinda dead anyways
5. The hardware is old and, to be blunt, on the raw spec kinda bad value for the hardware itself. Of course the software sells the hardware but the hardware does also sell software. The longer they drag it out the more attractive the competition becomes. I mean we can point to the install base being huge all we want but you do realise that the DS had an install base of 140mill and sold 20mill pieces of hardware in its last year right? The best selling systems of all time, almost by definition, were superseded with huge install bases. That's.... kinda how that works....
@Grumblevolcano I think we half agree, my view is something like this:-
2024 - (Switch 2 Launch/year 1 Title) - WW or TP - Full on remastered that demonstrates power of the "Switch 2"
2025 - ALBW port/remaster
2026 - Warriors 2 / another spin off
2027 - WW or TP remaster (whichever isn't a launch/year 1 title)
2028 - Zelda "Maker" / another spin off
2029/2030 - BotW 3
@skywake All great points, mate. I'll reply to each (as long as you don't read like I'm angry or anything lol! I have obviously no idea when a Switch 2 will launch!)
1. Sales are down, but when they are down from unusual sales during lockdown, are they down relative to traditional projections? 20% is a big number, but coming down from an unusually high bar is always going to be skewed. And unfortunately, Nintendo have a better idea than either of us here. Sales data is out of date the moment it's printed. The Switch has been the biggest selling console in all terrortories recently (thanks to Mario Movie and Zelda.) A console in it's 7th year isn't looking to become the next big thing (been there and done that) it's simply trying to keep the decline as flat as possible and to be honest, I don't see how a 7 year old console could be doing any better! As for turn the ship around moments in the Direct, this late in the lifecycle, it's not really about growth but more about lessening the decline. The Switch has been the best selling console recently accross all terrortories. 2D Mario is going to do wonders (pardon the pun) for the life cycle. I already know families that have pre-ordered Mario RPG!
At somepoint there is a crossover between high softwate sales and low console sales with high console sales and low software sales (old to new.) And I don't know enough about Nintendo's bottom line to know when that is but it feels like we aren't there yet. Not for a company as prolific as Nintendo are.
2. It's still only theoretical discussion and not definitive. But again, it shows movement
3. So when we see a price drop, then I think people's definition of 'soon' will be much nearer mine. (That or I need to buy a new dictionary!)
4. Announcing the Switch before Christmas kept them in the pubic's eye (just having the Wii U would have been embarrassing. This was a suitable diversion.) Releasing it early in the year was made easier because the Wii U's time of death had just been noted. They literally had nothing to lose. Releasing a console so soon after Christmas would leave sour grapes for folk who spent money on the Switch. Remember, folk are skint after Christmas. Now I will concede, Nintendo shouldn't really put too much stock in folk buying a Switch in year 7. They are hardly folk expected to buy a Switch 2 day one! So an early release might happen, but I'm erring towards a more conventional time frame. Again, you could be right (I'm usually wrong lol.)
5. I'm going to wait and see the sales performance of Mario Wonder. If (and it will tbh) it sells huge numbers, then would more powah have helped that game? Or have Nintendo already got hardware that lets them create what they want at the moment. Their new hardware will be more about their gameplay ideas not pretty effects and ray tracing. The spec bump is just a given, but not the selling point. It wasn't for Switch and it won't be for the next console (at a guess.) I'm not playing down third party AAA here, it's simply not letting the tail wag the dog is all.
Full transparacy, I hope you are right lol. I want one! Can't wait. But I've been a Nintendo fan long enough to realise it's best to let them go at their own pace, when things are ready. Because if we expect something...we aren't getting it (at this point, I'm convinced they do it on purpose.)
@skywake@GrailUK
These are all good points, on both sides. I feel like for one to make a genuinely educated assessment, they must be able to present the argument from both sides (which they teach in debating- you should be able to articulate the opposing view as well as they can without strawmans or intentionally undermining their argument). And I think you guys have demonstrated that.
Why Switch 2 releases spring 2024
sales declining- will be difficult to even hit 15m by March 2024.
Assuming they waited another year, the sales for that FY could potentially dip into single digit millions
Allowing sales to dip that low could see lost momentum going into next gen, which is always harder to regain than lose
Switch released in spring
3DS also released in spring
console will be 7 years old by spring 2024
not one single dated game for 2024, and of the two known 2024 releases, one is a 3DS remaster and the other a more casual Peach title
Yet 2023 is a blowout year with Fire Emblem, Metroid Prime, Kirby, Advance Wars, Zelda, Pikmin, Mario RPG, WarioWare, 2D Mario and several notable 3rd party titles
Assuming Nintendo is learning from past failed transitions and employing a strategy closer to what Sony did with PS4>PS5, we would expect a blowout final year to garner as much momentum as possible into the transition, with a steep falloff in titles during release year. Lineup seems to reflect this
If Switch 2 wasn't releasing spring 2024, you would expect Nintendo to have released another variant in 2023, following the 2 year pattern (2017- Switch, 2019- Lite, 2021- OLED, 2023- Lite OLED?). But they didn't. Stands to reason they wouldn't if next Switch is around the corner
Why Switch 2 doesn't release spring 2024
Switch is still selling 15 million in its 7th year. There's too much money on the table software-wise to abandon it now when games are selling better than ever. Now is when the money machine prints fastest.
Waiting for PS5/XSX sales and hype to die down a bit more would be strategic to ensure consumers opt for Switch 2 instead
Zelda just released. By dropping Switch 2 in spring 2024, it ensures we don't get a new Zelda until at least past the midpoint of next gen, and they may want a new Zelda earlier to drive sales
Switch still has yet to spend the Ace up it's sleeve... the price cut. If Switch dropped price $50 across the board after Christmas, that could potentially sustain another 15 million selling year
By waiting until spring 2025, they costs of components would come down even more
Too many big releases that could have been spent on bolstering Switch 2 launch year lineup. This is of course assuming Nintendo isn't opting for the blowout year momentum push.
Consider and weigh both sides. There really is an argument for both.
All have sinned and fall short of Gods glory. Wages of sin is death. Romans
God so loved the world He sent His only Son- whoever believes on Him has eternal life. Unless you believe, you will die in your sins. Whoever believes, rivers of living water flow within them. John
@JaxonH I do reckon the third party support for Switch 2 will be strong out of the gate. I'm sure many a CEO are echoing Bobby Kotick's testimonial from the FTC case and thinking it was a bad decision to not put games on Switch! And NVidia will be chomping at the bit for their next chip orders lol. Nintendo are in a greatposition and both the above scenarios are equally valid. Soooo...all I can wish is that it is sooner than later.
@NinChocolate
I'd say it definitely has some merit. But with a huge asterisks.
Obviously no platform manufacturer waits until their current system is selling zero units to release a new console. That would take 30 years. As long as a console remains for sale, it'll never truly reach 0. Even if it's just 10-20k per year.
The question then becomes, where does the line get drawn. How much is "too much" to hold off? 15 mil? 10 mil? 5 mil? Thats a question that none of us can answer, and the answer changes every time based on risk assessment of the particular situation. I do think we can reasonably assume less than 5 mil is for sure past the line, and 15 mil is probably not. Keep in mind we're talking projected sales of keeping the system on the market another year. Switch will do 15 mil this year ending spring 2024. But what are their projected sales for keeping it around another year to 2025? And will those projected sales be below the threshold they're comfortable with, accounting for revenue, momentum, brand mindshare, etc? Hard to say.
@GrailUK
For sure. Just look at how much 3rd party support Switch has received despite A) coming off the back of the Wii U, a dumpster fire of a generation that cost Nintendo the faith and confidence of virtually every meaningful 3rd party studio, and B) being significantly less powerful than what most 3rd party developers are capable of utilizing
Even then, we got 7 Assassin's Creed games, 7 Resident Evil games, 3 Sniper Elite games, 2 modern Doom games and a Wolfenstein, 2 Diablo games, 3 Borderlands games, 3 Monster Hunter games, 2 Saint's Row games, 2 Metro games, Outer Worlds, every NBA 2k and FIFA, The Show, 3 Persona games, crap ton of Final Fantasy, Nier Automata, probably another 200 quality franchises spanning everything from Valkyria Chronicles to Portal to Crysis to Trails to Dying Light to Aliens to GTA to XCOM and Civilization to Witcher to Mortal Kombat, etc etc etc etc etc
Not all of them were high quality Switch version, a few were downright terrible, but many (if not most) ranged from decent to spectacular. Point being, even after Wii U, and even despite the power of the system, devs were putting all these games on Switch.
Just imagine what it's gonna be like on the next go around. Instead of coming off Wii U where the entire industry is afraid to lose money on the next Nintendo system, we're coming off Switch, the soon-to-be highest selling video game console of all time. And instead of PS3/360 level power, we're dealing with PS4/X1 level power.
Orders of magnitude more confidence and willingness and eager desire to develop for the next hottest system. And orders of magnitude more capable hardware that instills developer confidence their games can run, and do so in a satisfactory manner. It's gonna be a paradigm shift. People aren't ready for what's coming.
All have sinned and fall short of Gods glory. Wages of sin is death. Romans
God so loved the world He sent His only Son- whoever believes on Him has eternal life. Unless you believe, you will die in your sins. Whoever believes, rivers of living water flow within them. John
Forums
Topic: The Nintendo Switch Rumor and Speculation Thread
Posts 2,841 to 2,860 of 4,146
Please login or sign up to reply to this topic