Topic: The Nintendo Switch Rumor and Speculation Thread

Of course it's not going to be Elden Ring hardcore, but I don't think the Peach game is going to be cheap shovelware title or anything on the scale of Everybody 1-2 Switch. @JaxonH's comparison to Yoshi, Kirby, and Animal Crossing feels about right. Probably something lighthearted and on the easier side and targeted to a younger audience, but I think it'll be something all audiences can enjoy.

I don't really agree that these are situational issues because you need a good early lineup to build momentum, but I have a few other issues with your comparison so let's take a look at those first.

Well considering that the Wii U was widely panned I don't think they should be following the Wii -> Wii U transition plan. Blowing out Skyward Sword was probably a mistake because the Wii U was really hurting for sandbox/exploration focused games, especially early. There were other issues with the lineup that contributed to that more (primarily that they specifically prioritized linear platformers, such as choosing to make a linear 3D Mario in 3D World instead of a sandbox Mario or Retro making Tropical Freeze instead of Prime 4), but having Skyward Sword earlier instead of relying on WWHD would've helped a bit. Kirby also never saw a main series game on the Wii U, so having Return to Dreamland debut on the Wii U instead would've been huge, especially since the last proper mainline entry was on the N64.

As for DS and 3DS, Pokemon typically is late in transitioning to the new generation, usually we don't see them make the jump to the new handheld until Year 3 and release on the older handheld for a year or two after. So Pokemon releasing late is kind of a given. Beyond that, nothing much big from the DS and 3DS lineups. Metroid and Pikmin are kind of niche, and many of these entries were Wii U ports to try and recoup some losses for struggling Wii U titles. Nothing as high profile as TotK, Splatoon 3, or SMBW released in that period for the DS/3DS.

Hard disagree. It's their flagship IP and typically sells gangbusters, and this is a bold new direction for the IP. The best time to introduce a new era of 2D Mario is a new era of hardware.

Kind of a double standard here. They promised Prime 4 for the Switch, even earlier than TotK even. So why hold Prime 4 for new hardware and not TotK?

Another confusing situation. BotW and Odyssey both released on the Switch Year 1 and smashed sales records. Both of them were basically 1a and 1b for the 2017 lineup. Why hold 3D Mario instead of giving us a Mario Odyssey 2? And please don't say Bowser's Fury because that is practically a tech demo, I don't buy for one second that that's all they worked on from 2017-2021.

Now here is where situational decision making would come into play. Ports don't tend to sell that well when everyone's already played the game. They got away with Wii U ports because the Wii U sold so poorly, but there's probably very few Switch games they could get away with porting and if they want to do the soft transition we all expect then it's best not to touch them anyway. Few people will buy a game for the second time on Switch 2, the ports will probably only sell to kids that were too young for the Switch and that's not a huge group of people right now. Original titles, not enhanced ports, are what's going to sell the Switch 2. Even better if it's an IP that didn't get a new main entry title on the Switch (Mario Kart, DK, Star Fox, new IPs).

@Bolt_Strike I agree with a lot of your points.

Mario Wonder though - Skywake is spot on. It’s not a game that will move new hardware. It will “sell gang busters” of course - if it’s on hardware with a big install base. But it won’t sell the hardware.

Early adopters want to see bug graphically impressive games. They ideally want something to point at and say “couldn’t have been done on the last gen” but at the least something that looks like it pushes some envelopes.

Mario Wonder looks fantastic but I guarantee that there will be plenty of people out there whose take will be “that could have been done on the SNES/PS2”. Purely because it’s a 2d platformer.

Metroid Prime 4 fits that gap though. It’s perfect as a launch game to show how much further the new console can go.

@gcunit Eek, I didn't realise the Switch was struggling so badly. Clearly their momentum has flatlined and Sony are dominating the market. They need a Switch 2 STAT!

Yep, 100% sarcasm.

Another factor to take in to consideration with sales is we are in the middle of a cost of living crisis. It's reasonable to assume every console isn't doing as well as it could be. And Switch being the cheaper alternative is going to maybe weather this storm more robustly than most. Might not actually be a good time to release a new console?

The announcements for Switch Lite and Switch OLED were July 10th 2019 and July 6th 2021 respectively. I was under the impression the "no new hardware this fiscal year" would include revisions but it would be funny everyone expecting Switch 2 next year and then suddenly Nintendo announces Switch Lite OLED for launch this year alongside SMB Wonder.

@JaxonH My favourite attack whenever the Switch outsold anything PlayStation was the whole goalpost moving and claiming it doesn’t count because the Switch isn’t a console.

I've been surprised that Switch Lite has never seen a substantial price cut. At £199 it's always been overpriced. That sucka should be £125 by now for basic models, that would shift units and maintain momentum a bit longer, surely.

@Bolt_Strike
A couple of points. Firstly, I didn't say anything about making people who already brought these games buying them again. When I talk about having games being enhanced for new hardware I am very definitely NOT talking about porting the games to the new hardware. I'm talking about making the existing and large library more attractive with new hardware that can play those titles. I used the GBC example for a very specific reason. I do very strongly believe that we'll continue to see "Switch" software come out well into this new hardware's cycle.

In terms of why do TotK and not Prime 4. I mean, clearly TotK was in a ready state given the fact that it shipped. Also it was in development from basically the point at which BotW shipped. Metroid Prime 4 on the other hand while it was promised for Switch had its entire development basically scrapped and restarted in 2019. Which kinda puts it in a different space both in the sense that it was never going to be a 2023 release but also when they reset development in 2019 it kinda reset any expectations we might have about it. I could easily see it being a title they use to showcase the new hardware

@gcunit
One problem with pointing about this years sales and overall sales is that shareholders couldn't give a crap about what you're doing now. They certainly don't care about how you're doing compared to the competition. This years sales? That only tells me what your current output is. That's not how people buy shares. The value of a share is based on how well people expect you to be doing in the future. Because, to be blunt, time moves forward.

You buy say $1000 of Nintendo shares now? You're buying them at their current value. Whether or not that was the correct decision depends entirely on how Nintendo performs in the future. And the same on the sell side of that equation. People sell because they make the assumption that their money will grow faster invested in something else. Doesn't matter if they're the best selling platform or not, nobody cares about that, what they care about is "does number go up or down"

Right now number go down. The nenderthals in their suits will soon start screaming "number go down bad!". So Nintendo need to make number go up again. They do that with new hardware. Then cave man suit in the ivory tower grunts, hits the keyboard with his coffee mug and order more share crying "number go up good!"

Edit: I'm mocking Nintendo shareholders here but technically my retirement fund has an international companies section of which Nintendo is one of those companies they can invest in. Of like 1000s of companies. So I probably have something like a few dollars of Nintendo shares lol

@StuTwo I think Metroid Prime 4 would be a fantastic launch title, the question is, will it be cross gen? I don't mind either way.

IMO, the launch titles should be:-

1. MP4
2. 3D Mario
3. A top tier (DLSS) remaster of Windwaker or Twilight Princess

I wonder how Nintendo would market a Switch 2 in a world without social media. It came to mind as a result of the recent/ongoing twitter issues. Before social media there was stuff like E3, gaming magazines, TV ads, consoles actually being playable in retail stores but a lot of that stuff has been replaced by social media.

Remember kids, the value of shares can go down as well as up.

Metroid Prime YES, 3D Mario YES but instead of a Windwaker/Twilight Princess Remaster i would actually prefer a Majoras Mask HD Remaster or also an Ocarina of Time Remaster what can i say i love my N64, 64bit > 4k60fps

@StuTwo Graphical performance is not the end all be all for selling hardware. Nintendo's adequately proved this with the Wii and Switch, neither of which were particularly big or noticeable jumps in hardware. They simply have to provide new experiences, and frankly the high end graphically impressive games tend not to do that, Nintendo has been far more effective at that with their controller gimmicks. SMBW with an added mechanic that takes advantage of the Switch 2's controller gimmick would be perfectly effective at providing said new experience.

I don't think they're going to bother with this, it's too confusing and again probably not going to move the needle much. By far the strongest motivator for early adopters of new hardware is groundbreaking, original, appealing exclusive games. They might buy a few games that are also releasing on Switch, sure, but aside from a handful of graphics enthusiasts that actually care about high end performance, if they don't see any appealing exclusives, there's little incentive for them to buy the hardware.

I don't buy that Prime 4 was "never" going to release in 2023, 4 years seems like a reasonable plan. Now maybe the pandemic might've thrown things off, but I don't think they decided way back in 2019 to shift it to next gen.

Also, just because it's ready doesn't mean they release it immediately. If they have new hardware coming and it could help sell that hardware, it's better to hold it. This was what they did with BotW, they might be doing the same thing with 3D Mario and Mario Kart (for both, I don't buy for one second that what we've gotten since Odyssey and MK8D was all that they've been working on in that timeframe because it's a lot of low effort stuff and it feels like those games should've gotten new main entries in 2020-2022).

I would not be surprised for Nintendo to release an upgraded Switch (trimmer form factor than Switch lite, more powerful) and the next generation hardware. The next generation hardware will have its own distinctive branding, the Switch brand will then endure as Nintendo’s more portable and economical line

I don’t think ‘Switch 2/Pro, etc.’ is good enough for Nintendo’s next gen hardware branding

@Sir_Axeman the Zelda games you mention are obviously more highly regarded, but I think the chances of us getting remasters are significantly reduced with them being on NSO.

@Grumblevolcano Simple. Nintendo relaunches Nintendo Power magazine in the US and Official Nintendo Magazine here in the U.K. 😝

Clearly adding a 'U' is the correct next gen branding but to avoid confusion it will be 'Swutch'.

I bet Nintendo is putting a ridiculous amount of time and money into thinking how to avoid the Wii U type branding chaos.

@FishyS Oh I hate to be the team who has to work out what to call a new console and how to market it. Both Nintendo and Microsoft have difficulties in this department.

@FragRed they shouldn't complicate it!! Call it Switch 2 and then 2031 release Switch 3!

@skywake Do you think Nintendo allow the behaviour of fickle share holders to dictate their hardware release strategies? I'm not saying you're wrong - I've never taken much notice of the stock market game - but I'd have thought that companies who make big decisions on the basis of appeasing zero-loyalty short-term share holders get themselves in a bit of bother from not having well thought-out long-term plans.