Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

@BougieBeetle My intuition is mostly from casual gamers/parents with kids I know ... gaming news is remarkably niche. A lot of people I know didn't know Switch existed until months after release, or a couple years in some cases.

Edit: Things like social media will have tons of news but people who don't follow gaming news won't see it. For example my news feeds have essentially no sports news even though I know that is 100 times more widespread than gaming news. targeted advertising and news is a real thing. As for morning shows, I can't imagine them veering for long away from the standard politics, sports, and violent crimes.

I do agree major sustained advertising probably won't happen until post-holidays.

It feels so weird that we got no Direct whatsoever last month. Every single year of the Switch until now has had a Direct in September, most even being general Directs (besides 2020 for obvious reasons).

I don’t think Nintendo would just skip this year for no reason, and there would certainly be enough games to talk about so you can’t just say ‘they didn’t have enough content for a Direct’. If Nintendo really wanted a Direct in September, they could’ve easily just had the August Partner Showcase in September (according to rumours, this presentation was supposedly moved up from September to give space for Switch Successor reveal)

Nintendo likes to have their usual Directs out before TGS so I doubt we’re getting a normal general Direct this soon after it. There was no apparent reason not to have a general Direct before TGS, so having one afterwards seems extremely unlikely.

Since there was no Direct in September, it’s pretty likely that there’s a reason for it, which I think could be the Switch Successor reveal. Nintendo has had plenty of time recently without any major announcements, so nothing would really be overshadowing this reveal.

This week is pretty much out of the question, it’s almost over and we already got this month’s NSO additions. Next week is fairly empty (I’ll get back to this later), Week of October 14th has Mario Party, so I think that week and the week after aren’t really likely. Brothership comes out first full week of November, and honestly November/December feel too close to Holiday season for the announcement.

So next week seems like the best week for a potential announcement since it’s before Mario Party and Mario & Luigi. I’ve heard that we’re getting M&L previews that week, but if that’s on Monday, a Switch Successor announcement on Wednesday/Thursday isn’t out of the question. I think if we’re getting the announcement this year, it’s next week.

Fair dos. Like I am always happy to say about stuff like this… I’m always wrong hahaha:)

This is true but I would make one additional point. How do you think that consumer will feel about that development? They just got a new Switch, they were somehow unaware Switch 2 was soon, and now there's a new thing that makes their purchase "obsolete". You think they'll embrace the Switch 2?

I think the more likely outcome for the parent scenario you outlined would be that the parent just tells the kid that they just got a Switch. They're not getting the new one. And if they do feel like they've been sold an obsolete piece of hardware and just have to get the new one now? I don't think their view on Nintendo would be a positive one in any case (you're essentially describing tricking people into a sale here)

Will there be scenarios where the announcement timing being before the holidays is a net-negative? Sure. In the millions of sales that will happen it's inevitable. However I think overwhelmingly the people who are buying the Switch 2 out of the gate and the people who are buying the Switch in late 2024 are entirely different consumers. There would be little overlap at all. And I would argue for the most part shifting attention and sales to the Switch 2 wherever it comes from is a net-positive

Again, if this was a discussion about what year I think this would matter more. On that scale the sales numbers they can squeeze out of Switch certainly do (and did) matter. But I think in terms of what month is best I think the best month is the month that works the best for Switch 2's launch

If Switch 2 doesn't get revealed next week, I could see a general Direct in November. That might be what the whole moving the September Partner Showcase to August because of Switch 2 was about. If they planned to do a normal Switch 1 general Direct in January/February and then reveal Switch 2 in March but then moved Switch 2 reveal to January/February, that would move the Switch 1 general Direct to around November and hence move the Partner Showcase to August.

If the reveal or a normal Direct doesn't happen by end of October I'll be very surprised. We need a normal Direct to tell us stuff coming after Jan, or we need a reveal of Switch 2 if it's coming out in March (as I think Nintendo will want to be as close to their release strategy for Switch 1 as possible). The best example of a before holiday reveal is the reveal of the Switch - of course it was a completely different situation when they were coming off the Wii U, but the 3DS was still also on store shelves and they still had upcoming releases for it. Again, the 3DS was nowhere near as successful as the Switch but it's the same principle, and I agree with everyone saying that the general consumer who might buy a Switch this Christmas, and the more 'hardcore' fans who know now to wait anyway, are in very different camps and both won't really be affected significantly by the announcement (when it comes to sales for this Christmas) - the announcement of backwards compatibility might even drive more Switch 1 game sales. Not pretending be an expert but just how I've been thinking past few weeks.

Also it's more fun to be excited for the next couple weeks events haha.

Figured I'd put a graph down to illustrate where my head is at with this:

Across the bottom axis is the announcement date and then I've put on the plot a green line representing 5 months after that and a red line representing 8 months after. Then I've removed from the graph from the week of Thanksgiving in the US till the end of the year as possibilities. Effectively what we're left with is two lines within which lives all possible (assuming they stick to a 5-8 month gap) release/announcement combinations

So when I look at this I see an announcement this year suggesting a release date somewhere between early March and July. Which gels with my view that they're probably releasing this thing sometime around April. But when I skip forward and look to next year? A January announcement suggests June at the very earliest and March suggests August at the earliest. And that seems..... a fair bit later than I'm expecting

I'd also say that if it is indeed releasing late next year, which we can't discount, I struggle to square that with the lack of a September Direct. Because if we are getting an announcement in January for an August release or similar what are we playing in March and April? And if they don't have a Direct or an announcement before their investors meeting on November 5th they're going to get grilled I would think

So yeah, it's hard for me not to see October as being the month....

@skywake Yeah a January-March announcement makes it lean closer to a Holiday 2025 release, and with the Switch's current line-up that doesn't seem possible. I don't think it was a coincidence that we didn't get a September Direct, something in October seems even more likely now, and I think it's finally time for the next console reveal.

@skywake There are ways around things if Switch 2 reveal wasn't until next year like a general Direct in November could reveal the lineup through July and Nintendo moved the focus away from Switch 2 speculation last November with the announcement of the Zelda movie. That said, next week is the most likely for a Switch 2 reveal considering everything going on as it would manage to get the info out there without overshadowing Jamboree and Brothership.

I hope we get a 45 minute reveal with full details on the console and launch titles instead of a 3 minute teaser trailer.

next week is most likely for a direct this year…the suspense is unbearable 🙁🙁🙁🙁🙁

It always happens mid September, so obviously that’s what’s going to happen.

You can tell how desperate people are for Switch 2 news by how they interpret this tweet as Switch 2 reveal on 10/10 (October 10th):

Speaking of Brothership, it would be cool if it got a demo like Dream Team got one.

@Grumblevolcano Yeah that’s certainly a huge stretch. I mean it could be the 10th, but it’d probably be a coincidence.

As for a demo, I think it’s pretty likely that it’ll happen, but personally I’d rather wait for the full game to release to play it.

@Grumblevolcano Really? Oh no...that's quite depressing.

10/10 is a good guess... but yeah that tweet is unrelated lol.

I doubt Nintendo’s social media team would know about any announcement until the day before to prevent leaks.

I'm not holding my breath for next week. We all said a reveal in September was the most likely thing and it didn't happen.

If most likely doesn't happen, go with second most likely 😀

That said, I could easily imagine everyone being wrong again.

And if that doesn't happen we all sink further into depression/insanity as we wait for the third most likely option to come to fruition.