Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

@Bolt_Strike
If it's anything like the Switch reveal they'll just drop a tweet out of nowhere. Probably when people don't expect it. And I think it's fair to say they're very much aware of the hype train/leaks going on

Remember that on fire chibi robo? That was posted when the internet was in a similar state with the NX hype cycle. Apparently on one of the Kit and Krista podcasts they went into that. The higher ups were not happy about it and there was an internal investigation. So I suspect this time around it's going to even more business as usual until we get a tweet out of nowhere

The only thing we have to go on in terms of predicting it is whether or not third parties start to get antsy about it. Also leaks, leaks suggest production and leaks mean Nintendo is not controlling the message. They don't suggest a specific date but the longer this drags out the higher the risk the of leaks or a third party stealing some of the limelight

@skywake All true, but one thing to also remember is that if they are just going to do a random trailer drop again they're going to want a lot of people to see it to get social media buzzing. Not as many people are following Nintendo's official channels (if anything they're following a news site like this one or a social media influencer), so they're going to want to give some kind of advance notice. So just like last time and with typical Directs, if they were to go that route, they're probably going to announce the reveal the day before it happens. That really is a good balance in that regard. It's far enough away that they can build up a big enough audience while being close enough to prevent outside companies and leakers from doing too much damage to the messaging.

I'm still rooting for a reveal before the Nov 5th financial meeting. Which means October in practice since they wouldn't want to be right on top of the media chaos which will be the US presidential election also on Nov 5.

Although they would also avoid having right on top of Jamboree, it feels like there are a lot of days in October where a reveal would work.

@skywake I wonder if normal timings apply? Is it before 2PM UK time?

@FishyS I feel if it's not happening next week, it's not happening in October or this year for that matter. Nintendo would probably want to give Jamboree the same space that Zelda got so I don't see it happening the week of release or the week after meanwhile I don't see Nintendo announcing Switch 2 on Halloween week. The cycle would begin again in November because of Brothership but then you're way deep into the holiday season.

@Grumblevolcano Sit back, chill and wait for February. Play some games. Enjoy being with family and friends during the holidays. Moan at being skint in January. Be joyfully surprised if it's announced sooner. (Man, I would make a rubbish Youtuber!)

@FragRed The winter holidays are the time of year when a company like Nintendo can expect to see the biggest profits, so I would think they are quite concerned about continuing to sell consoles and software throughout that period. It would seem counterintuitive to undercut the momentum of Switch classic just before the holidays by announcing a new console coming soon.

On the other hand, if Nintendo is targeting a March 2025 release window, announcing now would make sense. But I suspect they intend to announce in April or March and launch in summer or fall 2025. If Switch 2 is indeed ready to go and moving into full production, they may be able to launch sooner than usual after the initial reveal.

Note that they already told us they would announce before April. As for the general timeline, the main evidence things will happen a bit earlier (ignoring leaks) is the lack of the traditional September direct. Fundamentally there needs to be February and March games (and a bunch more if Switch 2 is not until Fall 2025) and September is the time some of those normally would be announced if there isn't anything unusual disrupting the schedule. That is not definitive evidence, but it's one of the only things we know for sure.

The holiday profits arguments have been discussed a lot in this forum, but I would say the summary is that the company in Japan with the most on-hand cash will be more concerned about their long-term profit strategy with their new console than they will be with short-term profits. Assuming they have the Switch 2 games ready, the timing decisions will inevitably be based on that long-term strategy.

@BougieBeetle
Well we can definitely exclude them announcing in April. The announcement is this FY, so it's before the end of March. Also I think you're seriously over-valuing holiday sales. If people are not buying Switch over the holidays because they want to get the Switch 2 instead.... that's not a lost sale

@skywake I know you are excited for Switch 2 but claiming someone to be 'seriously over valuing holiday sales' when it's where like 75% of a year's revenue comes from is funny. I would fire a CEO that didn't take holiday seriously lol!

@NinChocolate well I’ll with Japanese figures as they feel more appropriate for a Japanese conservative company, but Swirch sold 75k units last week. I think the west is under estimating (again like they have for the last couple of years lol)

@GrailUK
I meant value in this context. People are putting a huge emphasis on the importance of holiday sales and the risk of losing some of those sales. But they're not asking themselves what they're at risk of losing those sales to

Given the thing that would be causing the lost sales is a more premium Nintendo console you have to ask yourself, what's the concern here? That they lose holiday sales of Switch to the Switch 2 next year? And what of other things that lose holiday sales to Switch 2 next year?...... I don't see the issue

Edit: also, read the post you replied to. It's literally right there in the next sentence!

@NinChocolate If someone decides they don’t want to buy a Switch because they saw a trailer for Switch 2, and they decided “hey it’s more expensive but it’s backwards compatible and is guaranteed to have all Nintendo games going forward “, that’s not a oh no we lost a sale situation as that person is instead buying a more expensive and brand new console even though it’s a few months later.

@skywake
I agree. The people that are still buying Switch systems this late in its life span are not the kind of people who would rush out to buy a Switch 2 at launch. Other than the few who're replacing a broken or lost system maybe, or those who're buying the new limited edition Switch models. But those are relatively rare, and they would buy a Switch 2 at launch anyway.

In other words, I don't see Nintendo revealing their next system before the holidays resulting in a sales loss either. In fact, it might even be beneficial to them because it might deter people from buying a PS5 or Xbox for the holidays and wait for the new Nintendo console instead.

@stephajnan but isn’t it more a case of asking folk to do two things at once instead of concentrating on one thing at a time? Switch 2 messaging during a holiday push sounds like a lot.

@FishyS @skywake You are both making good points (as are many in this thread). But I would point out that if a consumer foregoes buying a Switch in holiday 2024 to instead buy a Switch 2 in summer 2025, that is a lost sale if they could have been convinced to buy both. There are children coming of gaming age all the time who are asking their caregivers for Switches and Switch Lights as a Christmas present, and those caregivers might know nothing about Switch 2, at the present moment. There are also many casual gamers who may buy a bundle as a present, or for themselves. All of these consumers are targets for Nintendo and it would seem to me that Big N would want to capitalize on them. I am sure their marketing team is looking at this situation very closely and doing everything they can to maximize holiday sales while minimizing consumer confusion. So for all these reasons I would be very surprised by a Switch 2 reveal trailer anytime before January 2025.

But hey, I've been wrong before, Nintendo moves in mysterious ways!

@GrailUK
Nah. Everybody knows the original Switch for years. It's not like Nintendo suddenly reveals two new consoles to their consumers. They're just letting everybody know there's something new on the horizon. And stores will be pushing the old console hard to get rid of stock themselves. I expect a ton of discounts or pack-in bundles this holiday season. Even more so than usual.

They've already made it pretty clear their Switch 1 messaging this holiday is 'cheap Switch bundles for those who don't have the top selling games'. That is very much targeting people who have not been much if at all involved in the Switch era. They will probably put those bundles prominently in stores and in commercials during football games. Their holiday Switch 2 messaging? It literally only has to be 'fancy new Switch early adopters will definitely want to buy coming in May so don't spend all your money on that ps5 pro/steam deck/etc.' The 'core' earlier adopters will largely notice the reveal without advertising. The main commercial spam advertising for Switch 2 can start after the holidays, potentially long after the reveal. Seems like pretty simple messaging overlap.

For what it's worth, Reggie once said it was 60% in the US but on average overall worldwide it is much less since places like Japan don't have the same enormous buying emphasis that time of year.

Also keep in mind a lot of that is game sales which shouldn't particularly be effected by Switch 2 announcement. Zelda and Mario Party will be big holiday sellers regardless of console news.

It's been said before, but those groups probably largely won't know anything about Switch-2 post-reveal either. That group will look in stores and notice traditional advertising but is probably not waiting with baited breath for the next Nintendo YouTube direct or Twitter info drop.

Plus, what kind of parent denies their child a Christmas present just because there will be some new fancy thing the next year 😆 If that were the case, no child ever would get an iphone. Given how ephemeral child attention spans are they might only play Switch for a a few months regardless and then get some other hobby.

@NinChocolate Lol I believe they would try this if they thought they could get away with it. It's the kind of idea Mr. Yamauchi would have really loved.

@FishyS I don't know, maybe... but as soon as Switch 2 is revealed, all the trades will report on it, the morning shows will do spots for it, even nightly news might mention it. Whatever social media folks are on will probably have some buzz. I'm sure Nintendo is hoping that once they put it out there into the zeitgeist, especially if combined with targeted and sustained advertising, that people will know about it and want it.