Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

Oh, the third most likely option would ramp up the depression/insanity since they're most likely not going to reveal it in November/December because of the holidays. So then the next month if they skip October becomes FREAKING JANUARY.

It all comes down to when in 2025 they end up releasing it. Can't remember who, but someone on here a bit ago brought up the great point that revealing it before this holiday season wouldn't really tank sales because the people who haven't bought one yet probably aren't invested enough to hear about the successor at all. That being said, there's no reason to reveal it now and clash with holiday software marketing if it's not coming until the latter half of next year. But if its releasing in the first half then, yeah, they'll definitely wanna reveal it soon. Personally I'm super torn on which one it'll be... it seems like there would be more smoke if its really being released within the month, but if it was really pushed back from this holiday then it would definitely make timing wonkier than normal and a full year delay seems less likely.

@ImGrenadeMan Honestly, the main argument for reveal soon (and therefore H1 2025 release) is the fact that the normal September Direct announcing February/March games didn't happen.

I'm honestly convinced that they only moved the partner showcase and did the double whammy in August because it would get more hype and attention. If the partner was its own thing in September, everyone would have just been mad about no first party. It is possible that they moved it up to give switch 2 reveal breathing room though, the weirdly quiet marketing for Jamboree and Brothership up to this point could serve as evidence of this.

@Novamii Still think Nintendo decided they had no first party games to showcase so felt it best to lump both the partnership direct and the indie direct together so they can focus entirely on marketing of the 3 first party games for the rest of the year. Don’t know whether Nintendo foresaw the way the internet has interpreted the whole thing.

@Novamii Nintendo are kinda in a tough spot right now. It’s officially known they are revealing the next console by the end of March but they don’t have anything to new first party wise for the Switch until likely after the next console is revealed so they can market it all together. However that causes speculation and rumours to mount. At the same time they can’t come out and say why there’s no first party games to reveal so they have to stay silent.

If they don't have any announcement this year then Switch 2 isn't H1 next year. If it's not H1 then they need more Switch content for H1. And if that was the case they could've recut the Direct to include it

But they didn't. So either H1 is going to be pretty weak or we have a Switch 2 announcement this month with a Switch 2 launch in H1. Or they have a very short announce/release cycle for stuff early next year

@skywake I mean as others have pointed out its already been a very weird year in terms of announcement timing, and we all thought the switch 2 reveal was imminent earlier this year when the release schedule was nearly empty, only to be proven wrong with the June direct. It's always possible they could continue the trend of weirdness by something like a January mini direct with some H1 games like we had in 2018, or just random trailer drops between now and the release of DKC, when the slate officially becomes empty. Then switch 2 could be announced in March for a Fall or Winter launch.

@ImGrenadeMan
The problem with that idea is that usually announcements are around 6 months from release, give or take. If there's nothing this year either in terms of another Direct or Switch 2 reveal? That means anything releasing H1 next year is going to have a very short release cycle

We know of DKCR in January. We haven't had the usual September Direct which typically outlines through to around June. That means we have this hole in the schedule between January and April which can't really be filled by a January Direct without the announcement cycle being very short

So either:

• H1 is going to be very slow
• H1 is going to be filled later than usual
• There's some announcement/Direct within the next couple of months that clarifies H1

@skywake You’re right about those usual patterns, but my point is that announcement timing has been very unusual as of late and the trend could very well continue. We had no general direct in H1 of this year so the only game we knew of for H2 before June was Nintendo World Championships, which announced randomly a month or 2 before. Zelda EOW, Jamboree, and Brothership were all announced with just 3, 4, and 5 months notice respectively. I think it’s totally possible we see something similar with H1 2025: maybe a twitter drop for a smaller game releasing early in the year before a January Mini or February direct that details the rest of the lineup for H1 (which yes, could be quite slow.) Then we could see switch 2 revealed in March, with plenty of notice for its lineup which would fill up H2 nicely. Would be a lot of announcements close together, but it’s gotta happen if they really wanna sell this new system while maintaining momentum on the original.

Btw, I still think an announcement this year is totally possible! Just playing devil’s advocate for the idea that it could be later than we want as my optimism wears thin lol. Here’s hoping we hear something soon!

@ImGrenadeMan I don't necessarily disagree with you but I can't imagine the half-year investors meeting on November 5th would be thrilled with only 2 medium games (Mario and Luigi and a DK remaster) and no hardware plans for the 6 month future after the meeting. They might be able to get away with it by saying Zelda and mario party will keep selling and there are OLED bundles on the shelf, but it would still be a bit of a sparse 6 month plan.

Anyways, we shall see or not in the next 4 days.

I'm going to guess that we'll see the Super Duper Nintendo Switch Pro DELUXE with an Extra Funkey mode on October 8th at 3:45 a.m. Central Standard Time. They will reveal the following with the system:

• The big new 3D Mario title with Donkey Kong as Mario's companion character. It will be themed around Mario hopping from island to island (completely open world) and working alongside Donkey Kong in order to help save the Mushroom Kingdom and DK Island from a brand new bad guy. The trailer will reveal Mario riding atop Donkey Kong, showcasing how DK can swing on vines to bridge gaps and how Mario still has his own moveset that you'd expect- controlling as tight as it does in Odyssey. The game is slated to launch with the console.
• Metroid Prime 4 trailer that features Samus.
• Pokemon Legends Z-A with a Holiday 2025 release. It will feature the starter pokemon in the trailer and showcase Lumiose in full HD 15 FPS glory. There are many glitches and bugs found in the trailer and the visuals are so underbaked that people are probably going to point out how all the building textures and tree textures are lower quality than a N64 game.
• Arms 2: Featuring more Arms.
• 1, 2, 3, 4 Switch. The game that no one asked for which will launch as a tech demo for the new features of the new joycon. It'll be just as underwhelming as the original and sequel.

@FishyS That’s a fair point, didn’t consider the investor meeting at all. Things were pretty sparse at the time of the May meeting too though, I wonder if the promise of switch 2 in the near future is enough to keep them satisfied on blind faith twice in a row.

Nintendo might as well push for 'the best selling console of all time' (tm) at this point. Their next system will have marketing money can't buy (and will be similar to the 'playing with power' days hehe.) nevermind cementing their image. After this holiday, they can't be too far away!

In August they had sold 143 million. Considering PS2 arguably sold 160 million, they would need 17 million more. Nintendo's goal at the start of the fiscal year was 13.5 million but they said that might change and it was generally assumed in the media they would likely not reach that goal. There was 2 and a bit million sales first quarter and we don't yet know second quarter so let's be generous and assume they reach the target and in April 2025 they added 11 million more to get 154 million which ties the DS. By then Switch 2 will be announced no matter what and they would need 6 more million, an amount they couldn't really reach in 2025 unless they have some 2025 holiday sales of Switch 1 after Switch 2 is out. Honestly mostly it depends on how much Switch stock Nintendo still has next year because they could still slowly sell it in 2026 for comparatively cheap after Switch 2 is out, maybe cheap lites as a value option. If however they don't even make 160 million devices clearly they won't sell 160.

Note that I don't think Nintendo cares at all, I was just curious if the math plausibly worked out.

@GrailUK
From my point of view, the Nintendo Switch already is the best selling video game console of all time. Many people bought the PS2 because it was one of the best and cheapest DVD players at the time and never used it for anything else. The Switch didn't have that advantage.

@NinChocolate
Not sure if that was directed towards me, but I don't place more value into Nintendo than I do with PlayStation. I've played on all major consoles throughout my life time, and currently I'm only playing on PC. My comment about Switch already being the best selling video game console was just a personal take. Maybe I should have added the word "dedicated" to it. 🤷

@NinChocolate
Fair point.

@NinChocolate
It's a fair point and I do think people are cheerleaders for brands way too often. Especially in this space.

But I would argue two things about your specific point. Firstly I would argue that it's always going to be in a company's interest to make number go bigger. And ultimately we should just assume that any action they take will be in pursuit of that. However, I would argue that outside of places like this lifetime system sales are a side-metric and as such isn't that important

What Nintendo cares about is maximising profit, not maximising unit sales. Often they're one and the same but in periods such as this they aren't necessarily. What matters more are things like attach rates and subscription rates. Someone buying a Switch over the holidays who buys one game and then shelves it 6 months from now after getting the Switch 2? Not super valuable. Someone picking up a Switch 2 over a PS5 and potentially picking up some new games over the next year? Super valuable

IF THERES NOT A DIRECT ANNOUNCED TOMORROW I WILL BE SO ANGRY.
also nintendos been pretty quiet recently…
hmm…
trying to do nintendo maths…