Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

Anyone think we might get the reveal on the 20th? Same day as the full reveal of Switch 1.

@AStupidID No because that’s a Sunday and I doubt Nintendo are going to announce anything during the weekend. Also that would be right after the launch of Super Mario Party Jamboree so that makes zero sense.

With the way they announce things especially. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they're doing some 4D chess here with the way they've scheduled stuff. They definitely know that the internet is clinging onto every leak and rumour for news of this. They almost surely knew how pulling those Directs into August would look

The most amusing thing about all of this is that they did more-or-less the same thing with the Switch. It was widely known that they were going to do an announcement soon. People got hyped around September for it happening. Then we just seemed to go on for weeks with not much at all before "hey, tune in tomorrow"

@skywake I saw Switch 1 announcement timing as just waiting until after the last Wii U exclusive (Color Splash) had sufficient time in the spotlight considering the original Switch 1 plans was to solely act as a Wii U replacement (they had 3DS coexist with Switch for 2 years). If they were to repeat that and Prime 4/Legends Z-A are crossgen then the announcement would come a few weeks after Brothership (the last new Switch 1 exclusive) or a few weeks after DKC Returns HD (the last Switch 1 exclusive if you include ports/remasters/remakes).

@skywake There was 3 days straight week before last, when barely anything was posted on Nintendo of America Twitter as if they were gearing up for that announcement and that certainly led to the hype and Nintendo knew it too. In fact they knew so much that they simply quote retweeted old Fortnite tweets with nothing more than the 🔥 emoji.

Please surprise me with Nintendo Direct on my birthday, one day before Halloween. 😉
I will be 40 years old on that day.

Well, looks like that for the first time in forever, they aren't having a Direct for this month! Now I just expect one next month, but I am wondering if it will be a standard Direct or a special Direct, given a lot of people seem to be banking on October as being the reveal date for the next console.

@Pastellioli To be fair, the 2016 September direct was Sep 1st so not that different than the Aug 27 one we got this year (both weeks were the last week starting in August). So if the reveal is in mid October, the pattern will be quite similar to NX reveal.

My guess for when major Nintendo franchises next installment will be (on the Switch Successor, assuming it launches 2025):

• 3D Mario: Launch title (2025) - it’s been nearly 7 years since the last big new 3D Mario game, and Mario has a decent track record of being a launch title. Also a 3D Mario almost always releases within the 1st year of console release
• Mario Kart: October/November 2025 - Nintendo always wants Mario Kart out earlier in a console’s life span since it sells so consistently well, it’s been over a decade since Mario Kart 8
• Super Smash Bros: 2026 - 2027 is also possible, but I think SSB is a series they want on Switch’s Successor ASAP. It also could depend on how ambitious this game is compared to Ultimate.
• Animal Crossing: 2027/2028 - I wanted to say 2026, but I feel like it just depends on Splatoon 4. Splatoon 2 was year one for Switch, so I think Nintendo will want Splatoon 4 out pretty early on. Animal Crossing is such a good seller, I can’t imagine it not being within the first 3-4 years of the next console’s life. I don’t think it’ll be year one though, although that would be nice!
  Splatoon: 2026 - I don’t think we’ll get a Splatoon first year this time since Splatoon 3 just ended recently. It also will likely avoid Animal Crossing. I expect both a Splatoon and an Animal Crossing within the first 4 years of the next console.
• Kirby 3D: 2026 - Specifically I’d guess March 2026, it’d be 4 years after Kirby and the Forgotten Land which is about the length between Star Allies and Forgotten Land. Nintendo might not want this out the same year as 3D Mario, so I think 2026 is a nice spot.
• Paper Mario: 2028 - Paper Mario games typically come out on a 4-year basis (2000, 2004, 2007, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024 [remake]), so I think this will follow the trend. Since the last one was a remake, this game could be in the works for longer than the other games.
• Legend of Zelda: 2027/2028 a lot of people expect it to be longer before the next one, but Nintendo likely wants an early Zelda on the console. Echoes of Wisdom is Grezzo so it likely wouldn’t take away from a focus on the next one. Tears of the Kingdom was built off of BotW and it was probably mostly done 2022 or possibly even late 2021 (there was a delay to 2023 likely because of Scarlet/Violet releasing in previous window), so there’s a good amount of time for them to work on the next one.
• I think 2D Mario, 2D Kirby, and 2D Zelda could be mid-late gen
• Donkey Kong Country: I think DK will get a game this time, if it’s 2D (more likely) I’d expect within the first 3 years, but if it’s 3D they might want to try to space it out with Mario & Kirby.
• Pikmin: Pikmin has become one of Nintendo’s biggest series in Japan, and it definitely has console-selling potential. It could probably be an evergreen title if released early enough, but probably not the first 2 years of the console. Perhaps 2028?
• Luigi’s Mansion: 2027 - Next Level Games hasn’t really made a game since Mario Strikers Battle League, and Luigi’s Mansion 4 is probably their next project. 2027 seems like a good slot in my opinion
• Super Mario Maker: 2027 - Mario Maker 1 released 2015, then 4 years later in 2019 we got Mario Maker 2. It’s been over 5 years since Mario Maker 2, but I don’t think it’ll be a year one title for the next console. 2026 would be the earliest to expect it in my opinion.
• Mario Party: I feel like both Mario Party and Luigi’s Mansion want an October release so I don’t think they’re gonna be same year. 2026 feels too early being only 2 years after Jamboree, and if they want to compete in size against Jamboree it’ll probably take way more than 2 years. Perhaps 2028? Honestly this is probably one of the hardest to guess.

I know I didn’t get every series, but these are a lot of the bigger ones we will likely be seeing on the next console. If you agree/disagree with anything here feel free to say so!

Anyways it’s crazy that we’re not getting a September Direct at any capacity this year, since we got one pretty much every year since at least 2016. I think it’s plausible Nintendo really did put that Indie/Partner Showcase Direct in August to make room for the ‘Switch 2’ announcement. I am really hoping for a reveal next week!

@PikminMarioKirby I really hope Mario Maker 3 is 2026 although I agree there is basically no chance it is 2025. I am personally expecting 2D Kirby next year although I suppose that would be a Switch 1 or cross-gen game, not specifically Switch 2.

In terms of major Nintendo franchises you skipped:

• gen 10 Pokemon - 2026 for the 30th anniversary.
• 2D Metroid - anywhere 2027-2029.
• Fitness Game (whatever you call the Wii fit and Ring Fit series) - If there is a new gimmick it could be the first year or else it could be anywhere early-mid gen.
• Insert Here Mario Sport game - 2026-2027. Could be 2025 if cross-gen or new gimmick.
• Captain Toad - 2026. This may be me just hoping.
• Fire Emblem - 2027. They tend to come about every 4 years.
• Bayonetta - 2028-2029.

@FishyS I don't think it's likely 2D Metroid will come out that late. Assuming they started development immediately after Dread (as is most likely), it'll probably finish in 2025. Even if they hold it back a year to not be close to Prime, that's still only 2026. Though, maybe this one won't have the final area feel like they ran out of time to finish it lol.

@link3710 I was sort of imagining Prime 4 would be more popular than Metroid usually is and they would milk it for awhile, first releasing Metroid Prime 2/3 remasters (or possibly some other port) and then having a fancy Switch-2-exclusive 2D Metroid later.

Also, recall that Metroid Dread was sporadically in development and planning for 16 years until it was finally released 😆

Anyways, just my guess.

You say that Mario Party is probably one of the hardest to determine, but NDCube has been a consistent 3-year cycle for Mario Parties since Mario Party 9 in 2012.
2012 had Mario Party 9
2015 had Mario Party 10
2018 had Super Mario Party
2021 had Mario Party Superstars
2024 has Super Mario Party Jamboree

So if I were to bet I would bet on the next Mario Party being 2027, although October 2027 is when you have Luigi's Mansion at. Given it's already been 2 years since the last Next Level game, I would say its much more likely we get Luigi's Mansion 4 in 2026 and the next Mario Party in 2027, all things considered.

I would be very surprised if Big N reveals the Switch 2 before holiday 2024 is over. To me it makes more financial sense to sell through their Switch inventory, and then announce in January or February, or even March or April. We all know Switch 2 is on the horizon, but casual consumers might not, and telling them that now could put them off potentially buying a Switch holiday bundle. I would think the next Direct would simply discuss some of the upcoming software we already know about and maybe a couple surprise game announcements. But I've been wrong before and I'd be happy to be wrong now!

@BougieBeetle I think it will likely mainly just come down to when they want to launch the console and how they feel is the best way to advertise it. There's a chance that could be not till next year anyway but I'm not sure that the Switch holiday sales will be a huge factor in that decision. I think a majority of people buying one at this point either won't notice or care about the new console announcement (and everyone who pays attention already basically knows anyway) so any loss of sales will probably be minimal, especially in comparison to the importance of nailing the new console's launch. I could see it going either way. Honestly have NFI what they're going to do, but that makes it more fun.

@BougieBeetle @BenAV Yeah I don’t think Nintendo are too concerned about holiday sales, as the biggest concern right now is how best to market the new console and get your install base to move across. We know it has to be revealed before the end of March which likely means first half launch. Can’t see Nintendo wanting to wait till holidays 2025 to launch it.

@FragRed Yeah, feels like they've squeezed about all they can out of the Switch at this point. Trying to fill the schedule for like another 12 months doesn't sound ideal. Time to get the new console out there as soon as the hardware and launch titles are going to be ready to go.

@BenAV Well, looking at what the Switch will likely have, if it does debut I still expect a good chunk of next years schedule to be cross-gen releases. Since the next system is incredibly likely to have BC, they can promote games as having additional features and/or better performance on the new system, while still selling to the existing crowd.

I'm still assuming we'll get a Something (Xenoblade? FE? Splatoon?) Warriors next year, that's a likely cross-gen title. If it is Xenoblade Warriors, I do hope we get some Xenosaga rep...

Beyond that? We know Z-A, Prime 4, DKC Returns. So that'd only leave 8 slots to fill... I expect a spin-off Kirby game next year of some sort on the OG Switch. And there's likely to be at least two more GCN/Wii remasters looking at late 3DS (though I'm curious who will do them, Shiver, Grezzo, Tantalus are already booked... maybe a Xenosaga Ch1 remaster from Monolith?). So that'd put us at 7 games already, regardless of whether or not the Switch 2 debuts.

...Oh and there's always WW HD / TP HD that are rumored to be already finished (presumably by Tantalus during their weird gap), if that's true. Plus the rumors of Prime 2 / 3 by Retro being ready... I think they could manage one last year without struggling too much. Not that it's likely they will but still.

@link3710 Splatoon is the exact type of game Nintendo would want to be Switch 2 exclusive because it’s the type of game you can use to get people to buy into the new console. Especially in Japan where the series is absolutely massive. Xenoblade I think will have a new entry, at least showcased if not outright launch and it’s the perfect “look at these visuals in this open world” game that makes it another perfect Switch 2 exclusive to lure people into wanting the new hardware.
But yeah I think the rest will be cross generation games. Though if the Switch 2 were to release next holiday, people may just not buy those games until the new shiny hardware comes out.
@BenAV Whenever this new console is revealed, that’s definitely the 6 month countdown to actual release. It’ll be something like a teaser trailer with a full Direct nearer launch when they know they can comfortably showcase a good decent number of first and third party games.

@FragRed When I said Splatoon, I was referring to a theoretical Splatoon Warriors game, not a main series title lol.