Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

@skywake It would be interesting, although I would want it to stay to games like Animal Crossing, and not other games with NPCs, as it could cross waters into replacing dialogue writers for quests and NPCs themselves.

@senaionios
There wouldn't be enough compute to be 100% generative. You'd be looking at having a large set of phrases and items as your output. Then have as your input the game/map state. It wouldn't be whole thing it'd be like

"I like the new (item collection) near (location). What it really needs is a (missing item), they're selling one at Nooks today but I don't have the bells!"

Or something

I think we will get a ton of announcements for winter this September (winter going into 2024.) I can't imagine a company like Nintendo spends all their time to build a blue ocean userbase approaching PS2 levels and then stop being prolific. It's kinda the point of selling so many units lol. Sure hardware is in decline (expected) but it's not dropping off a cliff (especially not in Japan) and software breaks records for franchises left right and center.So I'm waiting for an alarm bell. Like Mario Wonder underperforming or something. But if it's the fastest selling 2D Mario game of all time, I wouldn't understand why they wouldn't still be all in on Switch with their games instead of chasing specs for the sake of chasing specs. As it stands, they would need another building's worth of people to be working on the next console's library!

@GrailUK
I still curious to see when is another Level-5 Direct for their Yokai Watch, Deca Police, Fantasy Life Switch ?

@GrailUK Trying to get an even larger user base without losing the current one is always a balancing act. Nintendo has been doing well with first party and I'm sure Mario Wonder will sell very well partially because of the movie, but more and more popular 3rd party games which would be happy to be on a Nintendo console if it were possible are slipping by which forces some potential Nintendo users to move to a competitor.

User-wise Nintendo is less than half the console market which in turn is around half the pc gamer market which in turn is around half the mobile gamer market (I'm heavily rounding but close enough). There are literally billions of gamers out there and that number has raised massively in the last decade and even though Nintendo has a niche, the overall market is competitive enough that it doesn't make sense to stay still with either software or hardware.

I mean, Nintendo could just decide 'enough is enough' and still make a fair amount of money without bothering trying to be an industry leader, but I doubt they will.

It will be interesting to see what they do announce next Direct. There are so many already announced big first party games and DLC that won't be out before September. I suppose a 2024 Kirby game is likely. 🤔

@GrailUK
When there are alarm bells it's too late. You want to have a good answer to the product that steals your marketshare before it comes out, not after

Nintendo has notably shelved hardware products before launch. The first was the "true" GB successor that was supposed to release around 1999. It was dropped so they could release something sooner to compete with the Wonder Swan. Also Pokemon was a thing

The second was the proper successor to the GBA. Which was in early stages of development but Iwata canned it partly because he felt it was too similar to iPhone and partly because the DS took off

I don't think Wonder will be Pokemon tier.....

Nintendo's historically been late to the party more than not, but now they've created their own market it's entirely on their terms when they release a successor.

@TheJGG
Nintendo has generally been cheaper and more power efficient which are market advantages. Especially in the portable space. But yes, they have also been late to market either in addition to or without that. And on those occasions they've sometimes managed to do ok in spite of that, not because of it

Also I'd argue that Nintendo has frequently moved VERY fast to get product out ahead of sales declines. The portable refreshes are all clear examples of that

@skywake That's the thing. I don't expect there to be any alarm bells this holiday season. The Switch could even 'win' the holiday season (Just in the UK, more so in the US and pretty much a forgone conclusion in Japan.) And I think this is why Mr Furukawa claims the transistion is difficult.

It's very hard to retain 1st place. It's almost a curse lol. PS2 -> XBox 360. XBox 360 -> PS4. Can Nintendo convince the current blue ocean to stick with Switch (pretty much) whilst attracting a new blue ocean (ker-ching!) Or are they just going to go for the erm...whatever the opposite of blue ocean is lol.

Not only that, look at the most aggresive attempt Nintendo made at moving a user base accross with the Wii U. They pitched it so closely to being a Wii that most folk couldn't see the point in it lol. I'm sure they took notes from that. So they are going to have to differentiate it in someway. Usually, it comes down to power doesn't it (and it would be lovely to see Nintendo go back to a 'now you are playing with power' approach again.) They did mention they were going to look at state of the art for the next console. (Obviously, that has a nintendo context which isn't simply fitting as meni semi-conductors as possible in the lagest box possible.)

The moment they start offering graphics as the reason to buy their console, they are in the hardware race. Sony and Microsoft would pounce on them. But as always, I don't know lol. No one knows what performance Nintendo's analytics consider as under performing. How many units does a console usually sell in it's 7th year. Nintendo are saying it will be a challenge to hit 15 million, but if it's conventionally 7 million, then they are still a yard in front! And I would say their profile is probably the highest it has ever been.

I mean, I'll happily buy a Switch 2 next year lol (but it depends on how good the next Directs are lol. Love the Switch.)

@GrailUK
I think people misunderstand how competition works. I don't think Nintendo would be particularly concerned about whether or not they "win" a year or not. What they'd be concerned about is whether or not a product comes out that pulls the rug out from underneath them. And if they find themselves in that position then they'll be forced to rush hardware out the door so they don't lose market share

I've said it before, the Wii U didn't fail because of branding even though the branding certainly didn't help. The Wii U failed mostly because you could get an 360 or PS3 for around $100US less. They had the rug pulled out from underneath them. The Wii launched in 2006, at the time most people didn't have HDTVs. By 2010 most people did and Microsoft had even launched Kinect for XBox. When the Wii U launched that narrative was already set and people were looking forward to the "proper" HD consoles coming soon. The Wii landed near the tail end of goldilocks zone for what it was. The Wii U was WAY too late

In an alternate universe Nintendo catches on to Bluetooth earlier and Wii launches in 2001 instead of Gamecube. It is insane for its time and finally gets replaced in 2009 by Wii HD which, while late to the HD race, comes with Nintendo tier software that just wipes the floor. Then eventually Switch in 2016

So the question we should be wondering is, what technological shift could threaten the Switch like HDTVs and rapidly dropping prices for hardware to drive it? And honestly, I think I agree with some of the laggards here. The Switch is in a more comfortable position. The biggest threats to the Switch would be UHD which nobody really cares about and things like the Steam Deck. Lets be honest, the threat is pretty much entirely just things like the Steam Deck

It's not a HUGE threat in the same way that the 360/PS3 was to Wii/Wii U or smartphones were to Gameboy. But it's a threat. Probably wise to have an answer to it before Steam Deck 2

@skywake You always have really good points!

@skywake @GrailUK Just another reason to add to the pile of why the Switch successor will be coming next year. Though I don’t see Valve releasing a Steam Deck successor for a few more years yet.

@FragRed I wonder if Sony or Microsoft have anything planned.

@GrailUK They do. Like that handheld Sony is apparently releasing that got everyone excited until it became apparent it looks horrible and is only for streaming games from your PS5.

Your graph shows that the Switch is still lapping all of Nintendo’s other successful consoles (for this stage of its life) and confirms that it would make sense to continue supporting the system for a few more years rather than launching a new console. The release of a new killer app (like Pokémon in the late 90s) would extend that out even further.

So the Switch needs an upgrade because it’s sold less than two generations of Sony combined? That’s… interesting to say the least. No, the Wii U didn’t fail because it was « too powerful ». It failed because power largely doesn’t matter nowadays (the graphics aren’t getting any better), it didn’t do enough to set itself apart from the Wii, and having a new console for the sake of having a new console is a failed strategy. Recall that hardware is not very profitable for Nintendo, and that the software is where they make their money. As long as the games are selling well, there’s no need to change course.

Here's a question. Which comes first? A Switch price cut or the announcement of their next console?

New Switch machine I guess...

@Euler I also seem to recall back in 2012 that were people who were confused on whether the WiiU was a new console or an upgraded Wii. Though...it turned out to both in my opinion. The name itself didn't help matters honestly.

@GrailUK
Good question, I think a Switch price cut for this holiday season is possible.

@DanijoEX-the-Pierrot
Wii U name sounds like ambulance sirene, the sign of not good.
Wee You Wee You Wee You....