@Bolt_Strike Mario Kart isn't the only series that sells switches. The Switch wouldn't begin failing without Mario Kart. And as you said, "It'll sell well because it's Mario Kart and Mario Kart always sells well" which is why we got a port instead of a new game. If they knew it was going to sell well, why put in the effort? I'm not a fan of Nintendo's new minimum effort strategy, between Mario 3D All-Stars and many other switch ports adding very little and their refusal to fix basic things like drift, but it seems to be the direction they are heading for now.
Favorite Games:
1. Super Mario Galaxy
2. Portal 2
3. Hollow Knight
4. Fallout 4
5. Persona 4: Golden
@kkslider5552000 That's the situation I see happening. MK9 having started development sometime after ARMS released and at the point Nintendo noticed how long term MK8 Deluxe's massive sales were becoming it got shelved to be a Switch successor launch window title and the team worked on other projects like Mario Kart Tour.
Nintendo for sure realizes that a new generation of Nintendo hardware poses even more risk than it did before (hybrid is 1 system meanwhile home + handheld is 2 systems) so they will guarantee the launch window of the Switch successor is as strong as it can be, even if it means the Switch's later years have very few new releases.
So I'd guess the launch window for the Switch successor has something like:
Next 3D Mario
Mario Kart 9
Xenoblade 3
Splatoon 3
Next 2D Zelda (BotW 2 I think will just be a Switch game so too short a gap for another 3D Zelda)
Maybe Metroid Prime 4 (I'd guess either a Switch exclusive in late 2022 or a Switch successor release in 2023)
New IP
Dormant IP
IP that debuted in the Switch era (e.g. Astral Chain)
@Lindhardt It's not about the Switch failing without Mario Kart as much as Mario Kart being a better choice for a new game than other alternatives. If you're skipping Mario Kart 9, what are you going to make instead? BotW2 is already in development, and presumably so is Odyssey 2 so that's two of the heavy hitters. God knows when or even if Smash is seeing a new entry. Splatoon is probably more likely to wait until next gen seeing as it already got a new entry unlike Mario Kart (a spinoff or Splatoon 1 port isn't exactly off the table though). We just got Animal Crossing. So what are you doing instead that would actually sell? Most of the games people suggest tend to be niche series that sell less than 5 million, 9 should sell 10+ easily.
As for the ports, a large part of the motivation behind the ports was because the Wii U flopped and they're trying to give these games a second chance on a more successful console. Subtract the Wii U ports and then how many ports/remakes are left? Just 3D All Stars, Link's Awakening, LGPE, Mystery Dungeon, and Xenoblade. Hardly going port crazy there. Indeed, in Mario's case 8 Deluxe is the exception, not the rule. Mario Kart typically revisits its old content by remaking individual tracks in newer games, not entire games. So there's little reason to believe that any further old Mario Kart games will get ported, and Mario Kart is due for a new entry soon. Hence, it's Mario Kart 9 time.
@Grumblevolcano Now that's somewhat of a pipe dream. 2017 was strong, but not quite that strong, so I don't expect all of those will release in one year. I think it'll be more like:
*Splatoon 3
*Xenoblade 3
*2D Mario
*2D Zelda
*Metroid Prime 4
*Yoshi
*New IP
With probably a few other smaller releases and third party stuff in between (Astral Chain 2 sounds good). The Switch has room for the likes of Odyssey 2 and Mario Kart 9 in its last few years and its successor could see entries in those series in 2024/2025.
@Bolt_Strike Well, if Mario Kart does continue it's 3 year release strategy, that means: 2017, 8 deluxe, 2020, home circuit, 2023, 9, and if the Switch is halfway through it's life cycle that means the new Mario Kart would probably launch with the next console. I'm not saying the ports aren't justfied, I'm just saying many of them add very little, such as DK Tropical Freeze only adding a new character, Mario 3D All-Stars adding nothing beyond camera control choice and some music, and Captain Toad only adding a few new stages. There are exceptions, with Pikmin 3 Deluxe bringing back the Picklopedia, having all the dlc, and having new stages.
Favorite Games:
1. Super Mario Galaxy
2. Portal 2
3. Hollow Knight
4. Fallout 4
5. Persona 4: Golden
@Lindhardt Home Circuit is not a main series entry and is being made by Velan Studios, not Nintendo. It's the main series entries that are 3 years apart, they've been able to squeeze spinoffs in between in addition to that (see: the Arcade GP games). Home Circuit does not count towards this pattern. Tour does not count towards this pattern. It would have to be a traditional $60 retail Mario Kart game.
The only other type of game other than a full fledged Mario Kart 9 I could see taking this spot is if they created a new subseries of Mario Kart 9 in the same vein as say, 3D Mario vs. 2D Mario or Metroid Prime vs. 2D Metroid. Something that's very new and different for the series but still distinctly Mario Kart. For example, if they made say, a Mario Kart World that was an open world, Diddy Kong Racing-esque sort of racing game, I could see this satisfying the pattern and being seen as a second branch to the series that are still considered main entries. Then they could save Mario Kart 9 for the next console and then later on in its lifespan we get Mario Kart World 2. Something like that would be a reasonable way to prevent multiple entries from cannibalizing themselves while still keeping to a regular release schedule.
@Bolt_Strike Well, if Mario Kart does continue it's 3 year release strategy, that means: 2017, 8 deluxe, 2020, home circuit, 2023, 9, and if the Switch is halfway through it's life cycle that means the new Mario Kart would probably launch with the next console. I'm not saying the ports aren't justfied, I'm just saying many of them add very little, such as DK Tropical Freeze only adding a new character, Mario 3D All-Stars adding nothing beyond camera control choice and some music, and Captain Toad only adding a few new stages. There are exceptions, with Pikmin 3 Deluxe bringing back the Picklopedia, having all the dlc, and having new stages.
Does home circuit really count as a proper MK release? Nothing would surprise me with Nintendo. They are basically making a living off of the WiiU’s IP. Smart business decision bc 4/5 of the audience is new to these. MK8D is a natural title to gravitate to- hell, I convinced a friend to get a Switch and told her to get it.
As we have mentioned, the competition is gonna get steeper and Nintendo is going to need to up its game to extend the life of the Switch as they say they are. There isn’t much to port over anymore and BOTW2 seems like the only 15 million plus title on the horizon.
For a game to be a main series game I would say it has to fit the following criteria (and this goes for any of Nintendo's big IPs, not just Mario Kart):
1. It has to release on Nintendo hardware.
2. It has to be a physical retail release at full price.
3. It has to contain the core elements of the series.
4. The game has to have an appropriate amount of depth and longevity
Home Circuit fails #4 because it's not the kind of multifaceted Mario Kart game that you could engage yourself in for hours and hours and plumb the depths of its mechanics, it's an experimental toy where you just set up a course and race. I'm also kind of skeptical whether or not it would satisfy #2 were it not for the cost of the toy karts, this game doesn't have the feel of a $60 retail release, this feels more like something that would be a $20 eShop title. So nope, not a main game.
For a game to be a main series game I would say it has to fit the following criteria (and this goes for any of Nintendo's big IPs, not just Mario Kart):
1. It has to release on Nintendo hardware.
2. It has to be a physical retail release at full price.
3. It has to contain the core elements of the series.
4. The game has to have an appropriate amount of depth and longevity
Home Circuit fails #4 because it's not the kind of multifaceted Mario Kart game that you could engage yourself in for hours and hours and plumb the depths of its mechanics, it's an experimental toy where you just set up a course and race. I'm also kind of skeptical whether or not it would satisfy #2 were it not for the cost of the toy karts, this game doesn't have the feel of a $60 retail release, this feels more like something that would be a $20 eShop title. So nope, not a main game.
Nintendo seems To do things on their terms. Sometimes it works out, others not. I think MK9 should release on the Switch in spite of MK8D still being a nice source of revenue and could be a great launch title for the next system. If they do it right, I could see it easily surpassing 20 million in a year with the expanded user base. I am guessing that at least 3/4 of the user base is ready for a new edi, plus it could move a ton of systems. Only time will tell.
@rockodoodle Only 9 Switch games have sold over 10 million so far:
MK8 Deluxe (2017)
Animal Crossing New Horizons (2020)
Smash Ultimate (2018)
BotW (2017)
Pokemon Sword/Shield (2019)
Super Mario Odyssey (2017)
Pokemon Let's Go (2018)
Super Mario Party (2018)
Splatoon 2 (2017)
That's the list as of the end of June 2020, we'll get an updated list on November 5th. Nothing's really close to 10 million that's under it though I think NSMBU Deluxe (currently 7.44 million) will go over by the end of the year.
As for known games released after June 2020 I think will get 10+ million:
3D All Stars (the FOMO effect)
3D World + Bowser's Story (3D World outsold NSMBU on Wii U)
BotW 2 (don't think it'll outsell BotW but think it will get over 10 million)
Theoretical old games I think would get 10+ million:
Galaxy 2
Any of the 3D Zelda games
Any mainline Pokemon remakes (though even if Pokemon got the 3D All Stars approach, it would easily sell over 10 million)
@Grumblevolcano The lack of remaining Wii U ports is an important factor though, as most of the Switch's ports are originally Wii U games. Again, Nintendo is most likely porting Wii U games because the Wii U flopped and they wanted to give these games a second chance, I don't expect Nintendo going port happy to be the new normal, they just seem to be doing this to compensate for poor hardware sales. Take out the Wii U ports from the Switch's lineup and the ratio of ports to new games is much more normal.
My one and only is SwitchX......ubber GPU(4k docked/1080p portable/CPU that can ramp up ghz or lower
for power savings/More then 32gig to say 128gig or 256gig storage and bigger microSD card up to 4tb or higher for future proof. All games will follow this in the end and keep existing lines.
1. Lite
2. Standard Switch
addon
3. SwitchX Preminum
@rockodoodle Only 9 Switch games have sold over 10 million so far:
MK8 Deluxe (2017)
Animal Crossing New Horizons (2020)
Smash Ultimate (2018)
BotW (2017)
Pokemon Sword/Shield (2019)
Super Mario Odyssey (2017)
Pokemon Let's Go (2018)
Super Mario Party (2018)
Splatoon 2 (2017)
That's the list as of the end of June 2020, we'll get an updated list on November 5th. Nothing's really close to 10 million that's under it though I think NSMBU Deluxe (currently 7.44 million) will go over by the end of the year.
As for known games released after June 2020 I think will get 10+ million:
3D All Stars (the FOMO effect)
3D World + Bowser's Story (3D World outsold NSMBU on Wii U)
BotW 2 (don't think it'll outsell BotW but think it will get over 10 million)
Theoretical old games I think would get 10+ million:
Galaxy 2
Any of the 3D Zelda games
Any mainline Pokemon remakes (though even if Pokemon got the 3D All Stars approach, it would easily sell over 10 million)
Wii Sports collection
Nintendogs
Incredibly uninspiring and a slap in the face to those who supported Nintendo over the years. Mk9 would outsell ACNH easily. I have my doubts about NSMBU reaching 10MM. And seriously doubt they bother porting Mario Land and most of the Zelda's u mentioned. Wind Waker, TP and maybe Ocarina of Time or MM for the anniversary.
@Bolt_Strike I used to think that before this year (old games outside NSO being limited after the Wii U games had been ported over) but Nintendo's 2020 lineup and announcements makes me think the situation is different. Non-Wii U Nintendo old game releases outside NSO for each Switch year so far:
2017 - Nothing
2018 - Pokemon Let's Go
2019 - Link's Awakening
2020 - Pokemon Mystery Dungeon DX, Xenoblade Chronicles Definitive Edition, Mario 64, Mario Sunshine, Mario Galaxy, FE1
Seems to me like Nintendo's aware Wii U's usefulness is coming to an end in terms of ports so they're delving deeper into older systems. So like say for example in 2021 we get 3D World, WWHD, TPHD and maybe XCX from Wii U while also getting games from older systems like OoT, MM, Skyward Sword, Galaxy 2, Prime Trilogy, DKCR, a Pokemon remake, etc.
Nintendo BEEN knew the Wii U was a dead end and a void for profit. They announced the Switch's existence less than three years into the console's lifecycle. The 3DS practically carried them throughout the first half of the current console generation
@Grumblevolcano Half of that list for 2020 is an anniversary compilation, so counting those games artificially inflates the totals. One of them is a $5.99 re-release of an NES game, which barely requires any manpower. That basically just leaves Mystery Dungeon and Xenoblade. Hardly a symptom of them going port crazy, throw in another new game or two to the 2020 lineup (which they probably intended for there to be) and this list doesn't look all that bad. 2020's lineup being so port happy seems to be a combination of the Wii U's failure and the pandemic.
I might have too much of expectations for 2021 but it being Zelda's 35th anniversary I expect to see at least 3DS ports of Ocarina of Time and Majora's Mask to Switch. Sequel to Breath of the Wild as well as Metroid Prime 4.
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