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Topic: Hopes for 2021

Posts 81 to 100 of 105

Grumblevolcano

@Bolt_Strike Some big franchises have already passed that milestone without a new game like 2D Mario (if you count Mario Maker separately) and 2D Zelda (if you count Triforce Heroes separately).

Honestly I could even see a situation where we already know the big new 1st party Switch games for the rest of its lifespan with the gaps filled in with old games (Wii U ports, Wii HD remasters, Pokemon remakes, collections, etc.) and smaller games.

In that situation, I think Nintendo would ditch general Directs completely.

Edited on by Grumblevolcano

Grumblevolcano

Switch Friend Code: SW-2595-6790-2897 | 3DS Friend Code: 3926-6300-7087 | Nintendo Network ID: GrumbleVolcano

Bolt_Strike

@Lindhardt If they only wanted Mario Kart per console, then why would they waste their time with a port instead of porting the tracks like usual? And then why would they make Home Circuit, violating the "one per console" rule? Nintendo wants to make money, yes, but they're not this rigidly formulaic. Don't overthink the "one per console" pattern. It's not written in stone anywhere and they can abandon it anytime they think they can make another one. If they have an idea that they think people will like, they'll go for it. And do you really think they have no idea how the Switch can make Mario Kart 9 a new and unique experience? They probably have something they can do with Mario Kart on Switch and it'll sell any time they decide to release it because it's Mario Kart and people will buy it.

@Grumblevolcano 2D Zelda hasn't released on a regular basis since the GBA, and Mario Maker does not count separately since it's still a 2D Mario platformer. None of the higher selling IPs disappear for this long, they have some sort of main series game every 3 or 4 years. It may take a different form, as is the case for Mario Maker for 2D Mario or trading off between linear and sandbox games for 3D Mario, but they always have some manner of main series entry.

And no more new entries besides the ones we know? If Nintendo's serious about this being halfway through the Switch's lifespan, they know they can't get away with that. Switch sales will plummet if they don't. For Nintendo to accomplish that, they'll need a strong lineup of games in 2021/2022 to give the Switch a second wind, much like what some of the 2010/2011 games did for the Wii (stuff like Galaxy 2, Skyward Sword, DKCR, Kirby's Return to Dreamland, etc.).

Bolt_Strike

Switch Friend Code: SW-5621-4055-5722 | 3DS Friend Code: 4725-8075-8961 | Nintendo Network ID: Bolt_Strike

I-U

I would like to see Prime 4 to determine whether or not I would want to buy the game, and I do hope that it is released by November 2021. Breath of the Wild 2 then could make for a great Summer 2021 experience. Possibly some time next year see a trailer for the next new 3D Mario game which hopefully just tightens up on objectives (i.e. no ground pounding trash, kicking rocks, etc) and has an open design like Odyssey. A remaster of Xenoblade Chronicles X could be really amazing paired with the Switch's media features and play experience versatility, and confirm or disconfirm the Prime Trilogy early into next year. I would like MPT before April 2021 if it exists.

Favorite Game: Metroid Prime Hunters

Lindhardt

@Bolt_Strike I'm sure they have ideas and I would love a new Mario Kart, but they aren't going to make a new Mario Kart for the same reason GTA an Skyrim keep getting ported: Tons of money for minimal effort. Unless 8 Deluxe sales start dropping hard, Nintendo isn't going to make a new one yet. Plus, Home Circuit is more of a toy or a spinoff than anything, and it reused 8's character models and music. I'm not saying I don't want a new one, but until 8 Deluxe stops getting in the top 10 best selling games consistently I'm not getting my hopes up.

Favorite Games:
1. Super Mario Galaxy
2. Portal 2
3. Hollow Knight
4. Fallout 4
5. Persona 4: Golden

Bolt_Strike

@Lindhardt A new game takes several years to develop, they can't just base their release schedule on when the sales of the last game start to fall off. They have no idea what the sales of the last game are going to be like when the new one is ready for release. They would've had to have made a decision back in 2017 after Deluxe released whether or not to start working on a new game, and I would guess they didn't predict Deluxe would continue to sell this well years after its release, they probably expected sales would fall off and they would need an original Switch entry to provide a boost in sales. Plus again, it'll sell well because it's Mario Kart and Mario Kart always sells well. So most likely they already decided to start working on 9 for the Switch back in 2017 (I would guess they initially targeted a 2020 release but had to push it back because of COVID, so I think we'll probably see this in 2021 rather than 2022).

Bolt_Strike

Switch Friend Code: SW-5621-4055-5722 | 3DS Friend Code: 4725-8075-8961 | Nintendo Network ID: Bolt_Strike

kkslider5552000

I could see it happening.

But I dunno. There's a decent amount of notable game series where they clearly made the decision to not put out a new game this gen, and they had to have all been in the same position of deciding. GTA 5 is a go to example, being a last gen game that came out in the first year of next gen and never stopped selling. Though I don't think the Mario Kart team is spending 5 years on a game in the same genre as their most popular series, so its not quite the same either.

On top of that, it just feels almost inevitable that someone's gonna be working on some Switch game and it will end up also available on Switch 2 around launch, same day (Twilight Princess or BOTW), or maybe even turned into a Switch 2 exclusive (as what happened with Super Paper Mario and I think Mario + Rabbids).

Edited on by kkslider5552000

Non-binary, demiguy, making LPs, still alive

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Lindhardt

@Bolt_Strike Mario Kart isn't the only series that sells switches. The Switch wouldn't begin failing without Mario Kart. And as you said, "It'll sell well because it's Mario Kart and Mario Kart always sells well" which is why we got a port instead of a new game. If they knew it was going to sell well, why put in the effort? I'm not a fan of Nintendo's new minimum effort strategy, between Mario 3D All-Stars and many other switch ports adding very little and their refusal to fix basic things like drift, but it seems to be the direction they are heading for now.

Favorite Games:
1. Super Mario Galaxy
2. Portal 2
3. Hollow Knight
4. Fallout 4
5. Persona 4: Golden

Grumblevolcano

@kkslider5552000 That's the situation I see happening. MK9 having started development sometime after ARMS released and at the point Nintendo noticed how long term MK8 Deluxe's massive sales were becoming it got shelved to be a Switch successor launch window title and the team worked on other projects like Mario Kart Tour.

Nintendo for sure realizes that a new generation of Nintendo hardware poses even more risk than it did before (hybrid is 1 system meanwhile home + handheld is 2 systems) so they will guarantee the launch window of the Switch successor is as strong as it can be, even if it means the Switch's later years have very few new releases.

So I'd guess the launch window for the Switch successor has something like:

  • Next 3D Mario
  • Mario Kart 9
  • Xenoblade 3
  • Splatoon 3
  • Next 2D Zelda (BotW 2 I think will just be a Switch game so too short a gap for another 3D Zelda)
  • Maybe Metroid Prime 4 (I'd guess either a Switch exclusive in late 2022 or a Switch successor release in 2023)
  • New IP
  • Dormant IP
  • IP that debuted in the Switch era (e.g. Astral Chain)

Grumblevolcano

Switch Friend Code: SW-2595-6790-2897 | 3DS Friend Code: 3926-6300-7087 | Nintendo Network ID: GrumbleVolcano

Bolt_Strike

@Lindhardt It's not about the Switch failing without Mario Kart as much as Mario Kart being a better choice for a new game than other alternatives. If you're skipping Mario Kart 9, what are you going to make instead? BotW2 is already in development, and presumably so is Odyssey 2 so that's two of the heavy hitters. God knows when or even if Smash is seeing a new entry. Splatoon is probably more likely to wait until next gen seeing as it already got a new entry unlike Mario Kart (a spinoff or Splatoon 1 port isn't exactly off the table though). We just got Animal Crossing. So what are you doing instead that would actually sell? Most of the games people suggest tend to be niche series that sell less than 5 million, 9 should sell 10+ easily.

As for the ports, a large part of the motivation behind the ports was because the Wii U flopped and they're trying to give these games a second chance on a more successful console. Subtract the Wii U ports and then how many ports/remakes are left? Just 3D All Stars, Link's Awakening, LGPE, Mystery Dungeon, and Xenoblade. Hardly going port crazy there. Indeed, in Mario's case 8 Deluxe is the exception, not the rule. Mario Kart typically revisits its old content by remaking individual tracks in newer games, not entire games. So there's little reason to believe that any further old Mario Kart games will get ported, and Mario Kart is due for a new entry soon. Hence, it's Mario Kart 9 time.

@Grumblevolcano Now that's somewhat of a pipe dream. 2017 was strong, but not quite that strong, so I don't expect all of those will release in one year. I think it'll be more like:

*Splatoon 3
*Xenoblade 3
*2D Mario
*2D Zelda
*Metroid Prime 4
*Yoshi
*New IP

With probably a few other smaller releases and third party stuff in between (Astral Chain 2 sounds good). The Switch has room for the likes of Odyssey 2 and Mario Kart 9 in its last few years and its successor could see entries in those series in 2024/2025.

Edited on by Bolt_Strike

Bolt_Strike

Switch Friend Code: SW-5621-4055-5722 | 3DS Friend Code: 4725-8075-8961 | Nintendo Network ID: Bolt_Strike

Lindhardt

@Bolt_Strike Well, if Mario Kart does continue it's 3 year release strategy, that means: 2017, 8 deluxe, 2020, home circuit, 2023, 9, and if the Switch is halfway through it's life cycle that means the new Mario Kart would probably launch with the next console. I'm not saying the ports aren't justfied, I'm just saying many of them add very little, such as DK Tropical Freeze only adding a new character, Mario 3D All-Stars adding nothing beyond camera control choice and some music, and Captain Toad only adding a few new stages. There are exceptions, with Pikmin 3 Deluxe bringing back the Picklopedia, having all the dlc, and having new stages.

Favorite Games:
1. Super Mario Galaxy
2. Portal 2
3. Hollow Knight
4. Fallout 4
5. Persona 4: Golden

Bolt_Strike

@Lindhardt Home Circuit is not a main series entry and is being made by Velan Studios, not Nintendo. It's the main series entries that are 3 years apart, they've been able to squeeze spinoffs in between in addition to that (see: the Arcade GP games). Home Circuit does not count towards this pattern. Tour does not count towards this pattern. It would have to be a traditional $60 retail Mario Kart game.

The only other type of game other than a full fledged Mario Kart 9 I could see taking this spot is if they created a new subseries of Mario Kart 9 in the same vein as say, 3D Mario vs. 2D Mario or Metroid Prime vs. 2D Metroid. Something that's very new and different for the series but still distinctly Mario Kart. For example, if they made say, a Mario Kart World that was an open world, Diddy Kong Racing-esque sort of racing game, I could see this satisfying the pattern and being seen as a second branch to the series that are still considered main entries. Then they could save Mario Kart 9 for the next console and then later on in its lifespan we get Mario Kart World 2. Something like that would be a reasonable way to prevent multiple entries from cannibalizing themselves while still keeping to a regular release schedule.

Bolt_Strike

Switch Friend Code: SW-5621-4055-5722 | 3DS Friend Code: 4725-8075-8961 | Nintendo Network ID: Bolt_Strike

rockodoodle

Lindhardt wrote:

@Bolt_Strike Well, if Mario Kart does continue it's 3 year release strategy, that means: 2017, 8 deluxe, 2020, home circuit, 2023, 9, and if the Switch is halfway through it's life cycle that means the new Mario Kart would probably launch with the next console. I'm not saying the ports aren't justfied, I'm just saying many of them add very little, such as DK Tropical Freeze only adding a new character, Mario 3D All-Stars adding nothing beyond camera control choice and some music, and Captain Toad only adding a few new stages. There are exceptions, with Pikmin 3 Deluxe bringing back the Picklopedia, having all the dlc, and having new stages.

Does home circuit really count as a proper MK release? Nothing would surprise me with Nintendo. They are basically making a living off of the WiiU’s IP. Smart business decision bc 4/5 of the audience is new to these. MK8D is a natural title to gravitate to- hell, I convinced a friend to get a Switch and told her to get it.

As we have mentioned, the competition is gonna get steeper and Nintendo is going to need to up its game to extend the life of the Switch as they say they are. There isn’t much to port over anymore and BOTW2 seems like the only 15 million plus title on the horizon.

Edited on by rockodoodle

rockodoodle

Bolt_Strike

For a game to be a main series game I would say it has to fit the following criteria (and this goes for any of Nintendo's big IPs, not just Mario Kart):

1. It has to release on Nintendo hardware.
2. It has to be a physical retail release at full price.
3. It has to contain the core elements of the series.
4. The game has to have an appropriate amount of depth and longevity

Home Circuit fails #4 because it's not the kind of multifaceted Mario Kart game that you could engage yourself in for hours and hours and plumb the depths of its mechanics, it's an experimental toy where you just set up a course and race. I'm also kind of skeptical whether or not it would satisfy #2 were it not for the cost of the toy karts, this game doesn't have the feel of a $60 retail release, this feels more like something that would be a $20 eShop title. So nope, not a main game.

Edited on by Bolt_Strike

Bolt_Strike

Switch Friend Code: SW-5621-4055-5722 | 3DS Friend Code: 4725-8075-8961 | Nintendo Network ID: Bolt_Strike

Grumblevolcano

@rockodoodle I disagree that there's little to port over. From Wii U, sure but looking beyond Wii U there's lots.

For Zelda you've got:

  • Oracle of Seasons/Ages (probably either NSO or Link's Awakening 2019 style remake)
  • Minish Cap (probably NSO)
  • Four Swords (probably NSO)
  • Four Swords Adventures (maybe NSO, maybe skipped)
  • Ocarina of Time (probably part of a 3D All Stars style release)
  • Majora's Mask (probably part of a 3D All Stars style release)
  • Wind Waker (Wii U port)
  • Twilight Princess (Wii U port)
  • Skyward Sword (probably either part of a 3D All Stars style release or a remaster of the scale of WWHD/TPHD)
  • DS/3DS games probably skipped for functionality reasons

Mario platformer:

  • Super Mario Land (probably NSO)
  • Super Mario Land 2 (probably NSO)
  • The remaining NSMB games (probably skipped)
  • Super Mario 64 DS (probably skipped)
  • 3D Land (probably skipped)
  • Galaxy 2 (probably either DLC for 3D All Stars if it doesn't fully disappear after March 31st 2021 or standalone eshop release)

That's just Zelda and Mario platformers, there's plenty of others from other Nintendo franchises too.

Grumblevolcano

Switch Friend Code: SW-2595-6790-2897 | 3DS Friend Code: 3926-6300-7087 | Nintendo Network ID: GrumbleVolcano

rockodoodle

Bolt_Strike wrote:

For a game to be a main series game I would say it has to fit the following criteria (and this goes for any of Nintendo's big IPs, not just Mario Kart):

1. It has to release on Nintendo hardware.
2. It has to be a physical retail release at full price.
3. It has to contain the core elements of the series.
4. The game has to have an appropriate amount of depth and longevity

Home Circuit fails #4 because it's not the kind of multifaceted Mario Kart game that you could engage yourself in for hours and hours and plumb the depths of its mechanics, it's an experimental toy where you just set up a course and race. I'm also kind of skeptical whether or not it would satisfy #2 were it not for the cost of the toy karts, this game doesn't have the feel of a $60 retail release, this feels more like something that would be a $20 eShop title. So nope, not a main game.

Nintendo seems To do things on their terms. Sometimes it works out, others not. I think MK9 should release on the Switch in spite of MK8D still being a nice source of revenue and could be a great launch title for the next system. If they do it right, I could see it easily surpassing 20 million in a year with the expanded user base. I am guessing that at least 3/4 of the user base is ready for a new edi, plus it could move a ton of systems. Only time will tell.

rockodoodle

rockodoodle

Grumblevolcano wrote:

@rockodoodle I disagree that there's little to port over. From Wii U, sure but looking beyond Wii U there's lots.

For Zelda you've got:

  • Oracle of Seasons/Ages (probably either NSO or Link's Awakening 2019 style remake)
  • Minish Cap (probably NSO)
  • Four Swords (probably NSO)
  • Four Swords Adventures (maybe NSO, maybe skipped)
  • Ocarina of Time (probably part of a 3D All Stars style release)
  • Majora's Mask (probably part of a 3D All Stars style release)
  • Wind Waker (Wii U port)
  • Twilight Princess (Wii U port)
  • Skyward Sword (probably either part of a 3D All Stars style release or a remaster of the scale of WWHD/TPHD)
  • DS/3DS games probably skipped for functionality reasons

Mario platformer:

  • Super Mario Land (probably NSO)
  • Super Mario Land 2 (probably NSO)
  • The remaining NSMB games (probably skipped)
  • Super Mario 64 DS (probably skipped)
  • 3D Land (probably skipped)
  • Galaxy 2 (probably either DLC for 3D All Stars if it doesn't fully disappear after March 31st 2021 or standalone eshop release)

That's just Zelda and Mario platformers, there's plenty of others from other Nintendo franchises too.

Those ports will sell in the millions, not tens of millions. Doubt that can sustain a console for three more years.

rockodoodle

Grumblevolcano

@rockodoodle Only 9 Switch games have sold over 10 million so far:

  • MK8 Deluxe (2017)
  • Animal Crossing New Horizons (2020)
  • Smash Ultimate (2018)
  • BotW (2017)
  • Pokemon Sword/Shield (2019)
  • Super Mario Odyssey (2017)
  • Pokemon Let's Go (2018)
  • Super Mario Party (2018)
  • Splatoon 2 (2017)

That's the list as of the end of June 2020, we'll get an updated list on November 5th. Nothing's really close to 10 million that's under it though I think NSMBU Deluxe (currently 7.44 million) will go over by the end of the year.

As for known games released after June 2020 I think will get 10+ million:

  • 3D All Stars (the FOMO effect)
  • 3D World + Bowser's Story (3D World outsold NSMBU on Wii U)
  • BotW 2 (don't think it'll outsell BotW but think it will get over 10 million)

Theoretical old games I think would get 10+ million:

  • Galaxy 2
  • Any of the 3D Zelda games
  • Any mainline Pokemon remakes (though even if Pokemon got the 3D All Stars approach, it would easily sell over 10 million)
  • Wii Sports collection
  • Nintendogs

Edited on by Grumblevolcano

Grumblevolcano

Switch Friend Code: SW-2595-6790-2897 | 3DS Friend Code: 3926-6300-7087 | Nintendo Network ID: GrumbleVolcano

Bolt_Strike

@Grumblevolcano The lack of remaining Wii U ports is an important factor though, as most of the Switch's ports are originally Wii U games. Again, Nintendo is most likely porting Wii U games because the Wii U flopped and they wanted to give these games a second chance, I don't expect Nintendo going port happy to be the new normal, they just seem to be doing this to compensate for poor hardware sales. Take out the Wii U ports from the Switch's lineup and the ratio of ports to new games is much more normal.

Bolt_Strike

Switch Friend Code: SW-5621-4055-5722 | 3DS Friend Code: 4725-8075-8961 | Nintendo Network ID: Bolt_Strike

SwitchForce

My one and only is SwitchX......ubber GPU(4k docked/1080p portable/CPU that can ramp up ghz or lower
for power savings/More then 32gig to say 128gig or 256gig storage and bigger microSD card up to 4tb or higher for future proof. All games will follow this in the end and keep existing lines.
1. Lite
2. Standard Switch
addon
3. SwitchX Preminum

SwitchForce

rockodoodle

Grumblevolcano wrote:

@rockodoodle Only 9 Switch games have sold over 10 million so far:

  • MK8 Deluxe (2017)
  • Animal Crossing New Horizons (2020)
  • Smash Ultimate (2018)
  • BotW (2017)
  • Pokemon Sword/Shield (2019)
  • Super Mario Odyssey (2017)
  • Pokemon Let's Go (2018)
  • Super Mario Party (2018)
  • Splatoon 2 (2017)

That's the list as of the end of June 2020, we'll get an updated list on November 5th. Nothing's really close to 10 million that's under it though I think NSMBU Deluxe (currently 7.44 million) will go over by the end of the year.

As for known games released after June 2020 I think will get 10+ million:

  • 3D All Stars (the FOMO effect)
  • 3D World + Bowser's Story (3D World outsold NSMBU on Wii U)
  • BotW 2 (don't think it'll outsell BotW but think it will get over 10 million)

Theoretical old games I think would get 10+ million:

  • Galaxy 2
  • Any of the 3D Zelda games
  • Any mainline Pokemon remakes (though even if Pokemon got the 3D All Stars approach, it would easily sell over 10 million)
  • Wii Sports collection
  • Nintendogs

Incredibly uninspiring and a slap in the face to those who supported Nintendo over the years. Mk9 would outsell ACNH easily. I have my doubts about NSMBU reaching 10MM. And seriously doubt they bother porting Mario Land and most of the Zelda's u mentioned. Wind Waker, TP and maybe Ocarina of Time or MM for the anniversary.

rockodoodle

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