Topic: Coronavirus outbreak

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Although it probably isn't surprising, Prime Minister Abe and the people who organize the Olympics agree that it is very unlikely that we will see the Olympics next year either. Furthermore restrictions in Japan are being pushed out another month. Personally I'll be "working" from home for most of the month, coming in once a week as part of a "skeleton crew" preparing homework and stuff to send home to the kids.

In other news, it appears that the strain of COVID-19 in Japan is more closely related, genetically, to the one found in Europe, rather than the initial strain from China. Japanese experts think that the current spread in Japan can be traced to European tourists, rather than the original Chinese origins because Japan shut down travel with China pretty early but waited longer to shut down travel with Europe. At this point Japan is not allowing almost anyone in. (In fact I got warned that if I left for any reason, I could kiss my residency goodbye) http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13336912

Even though the numbers here aren't terribly high experts are still warning that the spread resembles the rates seen in Europe as well and warning that in the Japanese government doesn't extend and even increase restrictions, those numbers are going to start shooting up.

So far Japan has only had limited shutdowns and restrictions. Partly because the Japanese national government doesn't actually have the authority to order it unless under very specific circumstances. There's even talk of amending the constitution to give the government the power to do so now and in possible future crises.

On another note, I have lost faith in the effectiveness of shutdowns and social distancing. Largely because I no longer believe enough people are following the rules. From both what I have seen and what I have read, large numbers of people just are not cooperating with the rules. Here and in the US. Not sure about Europe because I haven't followed it as closely. And with large parts of the population just ignoring the rules, that seems as though the virus is just going to keep spreading and getting worse.

@ThanosReXXX @Dezzy You know that's a small percentage of California's that are against lockdowns just like everywhere else. And just like the Media they take that small percentage of people and make it out like the whole state.

I live in California and where I am at there are no protests or people refusing.

You want to point at the states look at the dumbasses in Florida and South Carolina running to beaches and such. California is nothing like that.

@Tasuki Yeah, but it's the small groups that tend to be the loudest. And the media never talks about people following the rules or areas or issues were things are going as expected. They report on things that break the norm or are problems. It's that way for everything. You only hear about things that are bad, really bad, nightmarish or things that are really, mind blowingly, good. little to nothing in between.

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https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/27/california-be...

I believe Korea just reported our first day with no new cases. While that’s obviously great news, I am a little worried that people are starting to get too lax. All it takes is one person, then it can blow back up again.

That looks like diarrhea on the left and plasma on the right.

Where do I get one?

@Tasuki It's always relatively small groups, but if you look at the video, it's still quite a crowd of people, and each and every idiot is one idiot too many, so as a Californian myself, I definitely feel ashamed to be coming from that same state, even though I'm living in Europe now. There's no such protests or large gathering of idiots in most countries over here, by the way. You only see it in America, and some countries in the Middle East, but other than that, people just keep their mouths shut and do as they're told. As they should.

And the most annoying and dangerous part of it all is that it only takes a handful of these idiots, to infect potentially hundreds of others, so in that respect too, it doesn't really matter that it's only a small group.

@ogo79 Ah, a vegan peanut butter jelly dog. People are certainly getting creative in these annoying times...

@ThanosReXXX

But California doesn't have a very big problem with it.

I'm not claiming to know the answer, but I don't think we can know for sure that a full-on shutdown in places like that is definitely the right response.

That may be doing a lot more harm than good.

@Dezzy Regardless, that doesn't excuse idiots to carry on as if nothing is going on in the rest of the States, or more specifically: the surrounding states. With their irresponsible behavior, they could still serve as carriers to areas where people ARE more susceptible to the virus.

The rules are there to PREVENT people from getting it, not to inhibit/restrict people that already have it.

@ThanosReXXX

There's no limiting principle to this though. The logic of what you're saying essentially goes all the way to justifying shutting down the entire world until there's a vaccine.

That would be a cure that's worse than the disease, in terms of the poverty and suffering that would be caused by the economic crash.

@Dezzy No, you're not getting me. My point is that these people are the extreme opposite of what is necessary. I'm not in favor of complete lock-downs at all. I live in the Netherlands nowadays, and over here, there's no mandatory face masks, and no complete lock-down either. Just social distancing and doing other things keeping other people in mind, such as limiting visits to people and places that you may need to go to, like super markets, and so on, and all of that works just fine.

The death toll is lowering, as are new patients on the ICU, the numbers of which are going down with every new day. So, it CAN actually work, but for it to work, ALL people need to abide by these rules, whether they're in a less vulnerable area or not.

@ThanosReXXX

On quite a few of those beach examples, people probably are social distancing though. I assume the groups are just people who live in the same household, and therefore don't need to distance from one another anyway.

Are you just saying they shouldn't go to a beach at all?

@Dezzy Indeed. Social gatherings need to be kept to a minimum. Or, if possible, only done in VERY small groups, and then these groups would indeed need to be of one household. You just can't risk spreading the virus. It really is that simple. As I tried to explain in my previous comment, there's not just black and white, black being total lock-down and white being "let's just completely ignore the danger and keep on going like we normally do". I'm just proposing a grey middle ground with people using their heads to apply some plain old common sense.

You don't want to get sick or land in an ICU, so in return, that means that you should also take care that nobody else does. And if that means not going to festivals, not going to the supermarket every damn day or staying and working from home, then so be it. Every little thing we do that works against those measures, will only make this situation last even longer than it already does, so nobody wins in that case.

If I take myself as an example: I am an independent contractor, currently unemployed because I can't get any new contracts or assignments, mainly due to the situation. But over here, we are supported by the government, and I still have some savings, so I'll be alright for many months to come, and truth be told, I'd rather be unemployed than ultimately having to find myself in an ICU, a place where I may not come back from. I'm not really THAT old, but I am almost 50, so I'm not the youngest either. The rule in general is that if you land on the ICU, and your situation worsens to a point where they have to put you in a medical coma, chances are VERY slim that you'll get out alive.

So, obviously, I'd like to prevent that from happening, and the way they are handling things here, seems to work just fine. It isn't the greatest thing in the world to experience, but it's certainly a hell of a lot better than the alternative...

@Dezzy Ummm California does have a big problem with the virus, if it didnt I wouldn't have been sitting home these past two months and it's looking like I will not be working till July the earliest. I do have some saving I can use but it's more the psychological toll it's taking on me and the fact that I enjoy working. Millions are in my shoes too so if this isn't a big problem to you I hate to see what is.

@Tasuki

The per capita death toll in California is tiny. It's about 30th out of 50 states in terms of per capita risk.

If you look at the regional graph on here, it's also completely concentrated in the 2 or 3 main metropolitan areas. Look at the death count for all of that area above San Francisco. Pretty much close to zero deaths in the entire northern third of the state:

https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases...

I just don't think that justified a full state lockdown, and I think the tiny numbers compared to places like NYC almost guarantees there's some other factor here. Probably the temperature.

@Dezzy Well yeah it's tiny because we are staying in doors. Imagine what it would be if we weren't on Lockdown, we would be like NYC.

@Tasuki

Well that's an assumption that I'm very skeptical of. I mean California had a hell of a long time between when the virus first emerged (November/December), and when it officially locked down (March 19th).

I think the reason it didn't get as bad as NYC is probably due to the differences between these places. 3 massive differences that probably have a big effect:

-Population density (NYC has pop density 10 times as high as LA)
-Public transport usage (subway usage in NYC is more than 10 times as high than in LA)
-Temperature. Pretty much every study has confirmed the virus doesn't spread as much in higher temperatures.

My speculation is that in places like this, moderate social distancing with masks and hand washing, is probably enough to stop it becoming a big issue. That seems to pretty much be working in Sweden. They have a worse problem than neighbouring countries but it's not that much worse. And they won't have a "second spike" like all of the places that have locked down.

@Dezzy The temperature issue is more involved than just the dry temp, though. There's humidity and relative humidity, dew point and surface life, an individual's respiratory system and its adaptation to a humid or dry climate. Then there's the genomic mutations and strain variations. CoViD-19 has a longer half life at higher temperatures than previous coronavirus illnessess But also, Australia and Iran haven't seen climate effects on transmission. SARS and MERS weren't affected by seasonal differences or climate environments to any degree that gave a bit of bet-hedging.

There's enough study to say there's not a reason to assume seasonality or climate will make a difference.