@Heavyarms55 Pretty much exactly that. By their own projections the worst is definitely yet to come - they're at least open and honest about that. They're currently working on bracing the medical world for the incoming surge. For NY I think they expect that in the next 10 days for a week or so (the absolute hospital peak). In surrounding region it's I think sometime between then and mid-May they expect it (it expands from the epicenter, so when it's starting to get somewhat better in NYC, surrounding area will just be catching up and getting worse and worse for a while still.) The hope is, after that numbers will recede somewhat....but receding from the peak that's yet to come. Meaning "progress" will mean returning to where we are today, which will seem comparatively better. Remember, the numbers are still doubling regularly....just slower to double than it was. But double every 3 days still means, I'm not the logarithm expert, but that comes out to what roughly 6x per week? - we're months away from receding numbers, and probably many months from receding back to March, and even that isn't "return to life" levels of cases.
That would be fine if it were a manageable problem. If the infections got out of hand in Feb, and we started reigning it in in Mar, and just are playing the wait and catch up game. But if numbers are still doubling, that means the lockdown isn't actually halting spread. Tens of millions of jobs gone (6M was only the initial shock), lives ruined, just to slow it down a month or two. Slowing the water intake doesn't stop the Titanic from sinking - it needs to be stopped and reversed. If infections are still doubling, that means people are getting it somewhere. If the lockdown were effecitve, they wouldn't be. The people that got it before lockdown already should have run the course. Essential workers in harms way account for part of it. But not numbers on that scale. Even if we assumed half the total population were already carriers before the lockdown, that means they're still transmitting it during the lockdown. How and where are they transmitting it? Grocery is the only common link between all lockdown populations, and was an easy, obvious deduction before actually taking any measurements. If we assume up to half the infected are carriers, you can assume there's almost always someone infected in the stores at least once a day. That's a lot of spread in the middle of a "lockdown." And with limited supplies, "self quarantine" is a hilarious joke. If you're not the people with the 1000 sq ft refrigerator that stockpiled food a month ago, and you think you have it....you're just going to go out and infect people....there's really not much choice in it. And since you probably got it from someone else doing the same, it's a viscious loop.
There's one other possibility: I saw that they think some lions and tigers in the Central Park Zoo have it. If it can jump from human to feline, could cats, or even dogs be carriers? How about bovine and poultry? Could meat be a carrier? Or, if only live animals, could house pets be carriers as people run their dogs all over? Or just feline? Only big feline? Are we back to the black death era where we start killing cats as Familiars?
As for the media and China, I almost think it's the other way around. China/media/corporate aristocracy really has been on an agenda to down America for a long time - it's a thorn in their collective autocratic sides. The disease, ironically, halted and threw a huge anti-China wrench in their scheme. It exposed all the self-serving flaws of their utopian window dressing.
@darkfenrir The only one thing out of this disaster we do know is that WHO should be dismantled, wholesale. They've always been a bad joke, but this has proven the level of joke they really are. They're a political appeasement body, not a health body. Their meddling in this medical disaster not only failed to help, but actively caused additional harm compared to if they simply did not exist at all, as they served as nothing but an enabler and echobox of China's coverup. Actively celebrating and congratulating China having dealt with it. If the WHO were not there at all, covering for Chinese politics, a REAL health body may have actually stepped in and raised alarms early. This has been a long time coming from their business as usual, but I never imagined they'd lead to the actual collapse of the post-WWII world. They need to be disposed of, yesterday. They can't help anyone anymore. They can't even help themselves.
@NEStalgia It’s already been shown in domestic pets in a few cases. And people in China were already throwing their cats off buildings.
It’s not just grocery stores people are going to. Lowe’s and Home Depot are getting packed with people buying “project” junk, nonessential things like nail salons and vape shops are open. The governor in GA just overrode counties and cities to reopen beaches and state parks. First responders have to go to peoples homes or pull cars over. There are still huge churches having indoor services. Golf courses are still open. People from different households are going on walks together. Many areas of the country are not under restrictions still. Funerals are still being held with large groups of people.
It’s all of that together, not just grocery stores. People by and large have no sense of moral obligation to protect themselves or others.
#MudStrongs
Switch Friend Code: SW-7842-2075-5515 | My Nintendo: HobbitGamr
I imagine a not insignificant reason for numbers of cases continuing to rise into the lockdown is that the amount of testing is increasing. You can't count what you haven't tested, and US and UK have been caught with their pants down when it comes to getting enough test kits.
That and the lag between contracting the virus and showing symptoms can be many days.
Plus the fact that significant numbers don't follow the lockdown expectations doesn't help.
Lockdown itself is effective. Of course it is. Other countries have shown it is. But you can't just expect case numbers to fall the day lockdown starts. That's why this is about months rather than days or weeks.
@HobbitGamer Wow, really? None of that here. Funerals are never fun, obviously, but now they're even sadder than ever, what with only the direct family being allowed to be there, and only at a distance. Practically all shops are closed, except for super markets, and other essential stores or places, but vape shops definitely aren't among those. The city's basically dead. And people that are gathering in groups get fined, so you don't see that over here either.
'The console wars are like boobs: Sony and Microsoft fight over which ones look the nicest and Nintendo's are the most fun to play with.'
@HobbitGamer Lowes and Depot are open, but salons and junk aren't open up here. There are stupid things that are classified as "essential" by exemption but they are being pretty strict about that overall. GA just sounds like one of the insane places pretending there's no problem. I can see state parks being open, though, local parks are open, and people getting outdoors makes sense and presents little risk of close contact. Beaches are tourist traps though.
Then again the more you describe public stupidity the more I think the species should just be wiped after all. This disease is not the right tool for the job though....
I do realize not all of the country is on total lockdown, but I'm talking up here in the NY corridor where we're pretty much in police state status. And the numbers are still doubling every 3 days, and that's being called improvement. Yeah there's first responders, and yeah there's the idiot still taking walks with strangers and joyriding to loophole-essential business destinations, but that's just enough to present the danger in the grocery stores to begin with, not enough to account for the ever doubling number of exposed. Up here even non-essential medical is gone. There's no dentistry short of emergencies, no elective procedures. If you're not there for chemo, dialysis, physical injury, or covid: get lost. So the people are getting exposed SOMEWHERE....and where is it most people are still going? Grocery. And occasional gas. The gas can't be eliminated (though outdoor payment should exist beyond credit card payment which is a joke given the hold it puts on debit cards.) They USED to have cash windows outdoors, but no, they moved that into convenience stores. But the grocery is visited a lot more than gas, though gas is going to be MOST handled by the most at risk -the essential & responders - but it's also mostly outdoors which is less of a risk than the indoor part.
Nationally you're right, the non-locked down areas like yours are going to have radically wild spread coming still....but the locked down areas are another matter. We're showing large spread even IN a real lockdown with grocery, gas, and essentials as the only realistic vectors. We see a slow compared to no lockdown at all, but only a difference of doubling in 3 days versus 1. I don't rate that as particularly effective without actually closing people to that contact. Again, the grocery should be open, but pickup should be outside. Or at least should be OPTIONALLY outside, which many many many people would elect to do, if only they could get one of those 50 slots a day that currently exists to do that.
That's terrifying about animals though, people and their dogs are EVERYWHERE - do we know if it's been transferring from domestic pets back to humans, though? That could be a second wave crisis. Brings a whole new meaning to downward dog.
@gcunit Yes, the increased testing definitely affects the numbers significantly. I meant to mention that originally. More to the point, the disease was probably here all Jan and Feb and was ignored. The lag time is already accounted for. It's that 14-ish day incubation that causes lag - but we're already past that lag point in the lockdowns - thse are new post-lockdown infections getting diagnosed. Lockdown is effective IF you actually lockdown. We aren't. Not as long as everybody is grocery shopping. That can't be ended, but moving it to pickup can be done and greatly reduce exposure. But we're still leaving pickup to silicone valley tech service unicorns who designed the services for luxury services for a limited upscale market and slim workforces mostly designed on gigging. There's zero reason short of business-first policy that the government, at least in the US, could not be assisting with grocery pickup to fulfill demand while it's essential. Yes, that means the government helping private business operate, but it's an infrastructure business that's collapsing in labor force under a load it is only handling in emergency conditions. When the railroads collapsed we got Conrail to get freight moving, almost overnight, as a temporary government intervention until the railroads could stabilize, then Conrail sold itself off. No reason we're not doing that with grocery right now to close the sudden demand gap that the business will never be able to meet. 90% of all commercial and institutional food-service shifted to grocery. They won't ever be capable of accommodating that alone, unless foodservice is permanently done and lots more grocery opportunity appears over years. But that doesn't help halt spread now.
@ThanosReXXX even in the NY corridor it's not nearly as locked down as Amsterdam, apparently. But much closer to that than Atlanta, apparently.
Not sure about vape. Because vape shops here are the "medical marijuana" dispensaries here, they may qualify as medical/pharmacy services since it's legally attached to cancer treatment. Like using children as a shield in wartime. But even dentists, orthopedics, etc are closed let alone salons. At least that's the one plus - medical has diminished to what it was supposed to be to begin with rather than all this volunteer medical to find and then fix problems you didn't know you had as a sales-pitch industry.
I still can't figure out where all the traffic goes though. Roads are packed, but shopping center lots are empty, and that volume of traffic, all-day-long surely can't be just the essential workers, it's like 70% of the normal traffic which is already extreme. Where are they all going?
@NEStalgia Georgia is a joke last week the guv said the reason he finally ordered a (dumbed down) shelter in place was because he wasn’t previously aware it could be spread asymptotically. By that point, there were already 2000+ case and 120+ deaths in the state.
#MudStrongs
Switch Friend Code: SW-7842-2075-5515 | My Nintendo: HobbitGamr
@NEStalgia Ah, okay. I guess that makes some sense, then. Over here, vape shops are just that: shops for electric cigarettes. We've got the coffee shops and apothecaries for our Mary Jane needs...
"Where are they all going?"
They're going to the factories, to be "processed". Have you ever watched that movie "Soilent Green" with Charlton Heston? If not, look up a wiki page of it or something. I think the story will interest you...
On a side note: I hope you're holding up in your little fortress, surrounded by all the suburbians. And keep a clear head. I've read some of your text walls and although I can sympathize with most of it, I'm not going to let my anger get the best of me, and neither should you, so hang in there.
By the way: have you read that article that darkfenrir linked to in comment #583? That oughta tell you more than enough about the WHO and if their statements are trustworthy and/or telling the whole story...
@HobbitGamer What cave did he crawl out of, exactly? How could a governer not actually know how it spreads, with a team of advisors, when the entire public knows that by now?
@ThanosReXXX Coffee shops as dispensaries? Blasphemy! I mean you always assume the kid at the counter in the chain shops is stoned out of their minds, but not dealing...
I'm certainly familiar with Soilent Green - can't ignore the classics! If they were going and being processed I'd cheer them on and buy some pom poms or something. Unfortunately they seem to always come back, which, really, is the whole problem to begin with.....
And, yeah, that article is gold. WHO has been a quackery for a long time. Humorously I got shot down every time I mention that on some "gaming addiction disorder" thread here when people reference the WHO's position. Then we get that beautiful gem. I don't put much faith in "stock 2 weeks of groceries and wear a mask don't wear a mask wear a mask don't wear a mask" CDC, but those guys are oracles of truth next to WHO.
@NEStalgia Wearing masks is more to prevent you from infecting others, but other than that, it's about as useful as a bricked Wii, so people hoarding them are mostly idiots...
Unless you're working in a profession where you'd actually need them, of course, and these people have professional masks, that actually work.
'The console wars are like boobs: Sony and Microsoft fight over which ones look the nicest and Nintendo's are the most fun to play with.'
Well wearing masks seems to help you from getting infected too, but of course with shortage you shouldn't hoard mask and instead try to reuse what you have.
I do hear that wearing three layers of fabric would help, which you'll then wash after 4 hours of use (maximum).
Why do it help? Because they capture the saliva that come out of people when they talk and ensure that the virus that come in contact with you is far less so your immune system can neutralize them instead of overwhelmed :v
(Reminder that Taiwan is aggressively producing mask to around 10 million masks a day)
@darkfenrir From what most scientists over here have told us, it protecting yourself truly is nonsense, for the most part, unless you either use professional masks, which aren't even for sale anymore, or if you change masks approximately every two to three hours, so neither of that is even remotely feasible for most people.
Social distancing and taking all the rules into account, such as not sneezing in the general direction of other people, helps far better to contain the situation, than trying to cover yourself up all the time.
EDIT:
And as far as the immune system immediately "neutralizing" it: we're a LONG way from that happening yet, especially seeing as they're still desperately working on a vaccine, so until then, we all either get minor complaints, or get really sick, and have to hope we can get through it, so better stick to those rules. I haven't worn any face masks until now, and I'm not about to either, and I'm still okay, because I listen to the advice that's been given to me, so I don't go out much, unless I have to, for buying food and so on, and I don't go to places where I could potentially come into contact with multiple people.
@ThanosReXXX not dure about that, it just made sense to me that wearing masks help even if it's not going to completely cut off everything. Yes social distancing is 100% the way, but sometimes you can't and it's better to have extra something to protect your face.
It kind of just logical thinking imo? Normal people don't need crazy mask, but if they wear 3 layers of shirt over their face, certainly they still minimize their exposure if there's any accidents.
@darkfenrir It's not your breath that spreads the virus, it's coughing, so as long as you don't need to cough, or cough in your elbow, you don't need to walk around with a face mask all the time. As mentioned, that's already been confirmed by several renowned scientists over here.
'The console wars are like boobs: Sony and Microsoft fight over which ones look the nicest and Nintendo's are the most fun to play with.'
@ThanosReXXX I'm pretty sure it's the saliva, which is still spread around when you are talking.
I remember reading a news about a group of 60-ish choir doing their practice (this is around feb btw) and they are doing all of the recommended guidelines. People don't talk to each other, they are spread apart, tons of sanitizer for everyone etc. End result? Tons of people got sick and one even died I think.
@darkfenrir Well, I don't know about you, but I don't spit when I talk, so that's nonsense. And if you don't HAVE the virus, you can talk all you want, but then there'll be nothing to spread to other people.
Think with your head, not with the help of internet pages or what other people tell you.
'The console wars are like boobs: Sony and Microsoft fight over which ones look the nicest and Nintendo's are the most fun to play with.'
@ThanosReXXX yeah but do you know about others? I don't spit when I talk either but I always think that it makes sense there's like... Tiny amount of saliva that always got out when you talk. Maybe I'm talking nonsense but bleh, thatcs not my point anyway
I just mean that wearing something protects yourself and so if there's asympomatic (which no one probably knows because not all countries go to check everyone) you'll also be protected
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