Nintendo Reports Major Increases In Profits, But Anticipates A Drop This Year

It will keep doing well the more software is released..... let’s see.

25.5M hardware sales is a huge expectation for the current fiscal year...

I'd guess the logic used is April - September is worse than last fiscal year (no Animal Crossing equivalent present in the current announced lineup) but October - March is better than last fiscal year (rumoured new Switch revision, 2 mainline Pokemon games, E3 reveals perhaps) so overall it's still high but not as high. Also if you reveal a new Switch revision people will delay buying the Switch until the new revision comes out.

"Nintendo is establishing cash resources that provide incredible stability" ... I see what you did there... we all love a bit of stability.

The fact they managed those numbers with so few software releases is even more staggering.

Ah, that sweet, sweet stability.

I thought it would be interesting to look back at Nintendo's initial Switch hardware and software forecasts for each fiscal year and compare them to the actual results. These figures directly correlate with Nintendo's revenue and profit forecasts.

Switch hardware sales:
> FY2016: 2.00 million forecast => 2.74 million actual
> FY2017: 10.00 million forecast => 15.05 million actual
> FY2018: 20.00 million forecast => 16.96 million actual
> FY2019: 18.00 million forecast => 21.02 million actual
> FY2020: 19.00 million forecast => 28.83 million actual
> FY2021: 25.50 million forecast => ??? million actual

Switch software sales:
> FY2016: No numerical forecast => 5.47 million actual
> FY2017: 35.00 million forecast => 63.49 million actual
> FY2018: 100.00 million forecast => 118.56 million actual
> FY2019: 125.00 million forecast => 168.72 million actual
> FY2020: 140.00 million forecast => 230.88 million actual
> FY2021: 190.00 million forecast => ??? million actual

Outside of FY2018, Switch hardware sales have always exceeded Nintendo's forecasts. Meanwhile, Nintendo's software forecasts for Switch have been laughably conservative from the very beginning to the point where they may as well not even bother making software forecasts.

Very, very impressive!

Well managed Iwata, Kimishima, Furukawa, Fils-Aimé and Bowser.

@Rob3008

When I buy a new console do I only have to buy games released the same day or after?

No of course not.

Someone buying a Switch now is buying a console with a great selection of games already released which will be new to that person.

Basically the upcoming release schedule aint that important.

Pretty good numbers. I feel like it's noteworthy that even if Nintendo sells 20 million Switch consoles this FY, it's going to pass the Wii. That's a pretty impressive feat, any way you cut it.

@AndyC_MK I don't really believe it's fair to compare sales of one console to 2 and given the market is very different from that time, I don't expect it to pass the DS. Given the context of the Switch's launch, overall, I'd say it's still impressive. The degree to which people feel about that will vary.

@AndyC_MK Tbh, I doubt having a console and handheld on the market simultaneously would have helped Nintendo reach DS and Wii numbers. We'll never know for sure, but I just don't see sales like that happening again.

Edit: Actually, we're both wrong. The past year was Nintendo's most profitable year ever.

https://www.ign.com/articles/switch-sales-near-85m-in-nintendos-most-profitable-year-ever

@AndyC_MK

"ultimately leaves a less profitable position overall"

Not based on these numbers!

Fix “online” with all that money.

Anyone else notice that there are still plenty of physical copies of Super Mario 3D Allstars out there in stores? They quietly changed it to "while supplies last" over removing it from stores at the end of March. I keep finding stacks of them at Walmarts by me.

Im just waiting to read the news when the Switch will be the most sold console in gaming history.

2022 ?

With the pandemic creating a strain on supply, Nintendo may be forced to pay more to try and meet it. They may post some crazy numbers by this time next year, but they may have had to dough out more due rising manufacturing costs.

Sony is debating about a slight redesign of the PS5 to save some money and meet demand.

Imagine if Nintendo actually released games. Their profits would be even more amazing.

@Dragonstar no one ever said it would be removed from stores. Manufacturing has stopped. It was sites like this that pushed propaganda trying to get people to buy right away. 🤣

It was definitely a covid boost though for 2020

If Nintendo could keep the Switch selling like apple pie for another 3 years it would totally beat the Wii and PS2 worldwide lifetime sales numbers, both of which took around 10 years to get to those numbers.

@westman98 wonder why it didn’t meet those sales figures in 2018?

Great to see Nintendo doing so well.

They could have doubled, no, quadrupled these numbers had they actually released the game everyone is asking for; Metroid Prime: Federation Force 2. Amateurs.

If not for the pandemic and people being stuck inside their homes, Switch sales would not have done nearly as well and Nintendo knows this which is why they haven't been putting in nearly as much creative output as they used to back when they were struggling with the Wii U and even the first year of the Switch because they know they don't have to.

Hopefully come e3, there will be news on releases for Q3/4 which will prove profitable. A HD remaster of the Metroid Trilogy would be nice in the fall and will help pad out the looooooong wait before M4 drops.

chip shortage

Would love to see some software announcements to bring my back to my Switch! The last 6-12 months have been pretty sparse…

Need. More. Games. First party announcements are starting to resemble a desert.

@Ambassador_Kong
No need to imagine those games at all, as they are right there for you to see (and inevitably disregard since they "don't count").

By suggesting a possible drop in profit over the coming year, suggests that the Switch sales have or are going to peak, this year.

Or it's smoke and mirrors to maybe quench the Switch Pro rumours.

Or it could be just a lack of big game releases this year. Mario Golf and an Old Zelda game, while they are both ok and will sell reasonable well Nintendo needs a few big titles this year, to up the profits.

@Rob3008 totally agree; however, the new comers will enjoy a vast libraray of games. It is us who baught it at launch (specially if you owned a wii u) will feel the dryness of games releases.

I've said this before, but...

Obviously and understandably the recent ongoing pandemic has had an effect on some development... but is anyone else curious about Nintendo's seemingly lessened release output during the Switch era after merging it's portable and home consoles into one unit? Wouldn't the assumption be they would be able to put out more varied titles, more frequently now than before given they only have to focus on Switch rather than say DS + Wii or 3DS + Wii U games? Seems like the opposite has happened somehow this gen with the Switch (so far).

I remember reading way back that some of their smaller DS dev teams were merged into the bigger teams, but just curious what their smaller teams are now up to?

Just thinking, not every 1st Party game has to be a major AAA release imo. Sometimes a Rhythm Heaven here or a Super Princess Peach game there helps tide people over in-between the next big release and can be an effective strategy.

I definitely maintain it should always quality over quantity. But Nintendo has rarely had issues with quality before and still maintained higher frequency of output in past portable/home console cycles. And while the Indie support on Switch is great, everyone pays heightened attention and looks forward to whatever Nintendo puts out on their own system.

For instance, I was thinking of Part Time UFO, that's a good recent example. I forgot about and missed Box Boy... and SnipperClips was fun, but a launch title so that was long ago now.

It just seems like we get less of those smaller notable 1st Party titles too this gen with large dearths & gaps between drops which probably makes it seem worse than it is. I'm not complaining about the overall quality of releases we do get, but the frequency and variety in terms of scope between titles leaves something to be desired currently.

But hopefully that changes soon with E3 coming up, so many gaming anniversaries, the Switch selling so well and rumours of an eventual Switch upgrade.

... Wun can only hope.