Pokémon GO trainers are calling for Niantic to disclose "loot box odds" in the insanely popular augmented reality game after fan site The Silph Road discovered the chance of hatching a Deino (see above) in the first three days of the latest event - Dragon Week - was likely to be less than one percent.
"Deino’s hatch rate was likely less than 1% for the first three days of the event, but after the change researchers recorded a hatch rate above 3%."
The Silph Road Reddit is now organising a large-scale coordinated effort to make the developer change its ways for the better. Here are the key details:
"During the past few weeks, there have been much uproar regarding Niantic's lack of transparency when it comes to disclosing odds of their various loot boxes (aka. gachas), especially in light of the previous Ultra Unlock: Dragon Week in terms of (shiny) Deino. But in a broader sense this has been present throughout various events over the past years with odds to obtain certain Pokémon either being perceived as too low compared to what was suggested, or having been modified during the course of the event."
"We can attempt to make Niantic display random reward / shiny odds by having a coordinated effort by 1) requesting them to do so, 2) reporting them currently not doing so to Google Play and the App Store, and 3) track how many people support this effort via a small petition."
The "loot boxes" in Pokémon GO are considered to be Eggs, Raids, Lures, and Incense. Do you think it's about time Niantic revealed the odds? Share your thoughts down below.
[source eurogamer.net]
Comments 38
Yes, absolutely. I don't see why they shouldn't.
It’s about time. Not only were the rates extremely low, but they were sending in game messages saying “have you caught a deino yet” and it was nowhere to be found. Some people were hatching 20-50 eggs and getting nothing, yet the game suggested it was available at a moderate rate and not being as rare as it was.
Any other gacha games have to legally disclose their item/character obtain rates. Niantic gets around this as you purchase the "incubators" and not the eggs themselves, but it's the same thing. Them making the purchase one layer away shouldn't allow them to continue misleading their users.
Odds always end up making me disappointed. I see 1/50 and think that means I’m guaranteed a good pull in 50 packs, despite knowing full well how odds work and how I’m completely wrong. And then there’s always that one bloody friend who’s a jammy sod.
Saved up all my incubators for Deino. 0 Deinos. After day 3 all my incubators were used up so it's a move to suddenly improve the chances to get him.
Oh please, the people that spend money on this game are playing FOR the value of their account. Just like amiibo scalpers, just like house flippers, just like Epic Games and Apple rooster fighting over who keeps what gambling revenue, it's all scams.
Yeah, the Deino thing was pure BS. "Have you caught shiny Deino yet?" No! Because the rate for it sucked completely!
Shady business practices in a mobile game, surely not
Then again... Do eggs really need this? It's not like you pay for them.
Deino in particular was a guaranteed encounter for everyone thanks to the quest they released that week. You could find two as rewards for completing that.
@Eel you pay for the incubators to hatch them
@carlos82 assuming you want to pay for extras. You always have the free incubator.
And, yes, getting extras makes it faster... But incubators are kinda, not worth wasting money on.
@Eel I assume these are 7KM eggs. Getting a <1% Deino with the free incubator alone is virtually impossible within a week.
i thought the law said they had to especially in a lot of european countries
@Eel I know that and you know that but clearly that's the currency this game is traded on, whilst millions will be buying them as coincidentally they are on sale whenever these events are on
@Eel
Yes, eggs absolutely need this,.
The game limits you to carrying nine eggs at a time, and hatching eggs requires walking real world distance.
Although you can incubate one at a time freely, if you want to keep trying for a rare hatch within a limited time event you have to purchase incubators to hatch more eggs simultaneously, for more chances at that rare hatch and to make more room for more eggs.
The fact that you receive the eggs for free here is irrelevant, it costs money to expedite the process of opening them, effectively you're paying for the ability to open more lootboxes in a shorter time.
Agreed. And a major problem is how hard it is to earn coins. They badly need to be easier to obtain and yes. Give us odds. We need to know what the odds are. Deino was a complete joke.
How is it legal to not disclose this sort of information? You mean they can change the odds at whim and nobody is to know?
@Strictlystyles I hatched 186 eggs that week and I think I got 1 or 2 Deino's (Mind you, not all of them were Friendship eggs, but a lot of them were)
@Hackleckackle
Players have wanted full disclosure for egg contents for a long while now, but the recent event was particularly egregious.
I'm still playing PoGo, after more than 4 years. I like how it helps gets me out and about. However there is no denying that the whole game is essentially based on gacha mechanics. I'd argue that this isn't it of line with most of the mainline Pokémon games, which rely heavily on RNG anyway - rewarding those willing to spend hours grinding away for rare/shiny Pokémon and good IVs.
When I look at it in the cold light of day it makes me wonder why I still play this. However the thought that the next Mon I tap on may be that new shiny IS tantalising...
I've been playing on and off since the game launched and the shiny rate/perfect IV/ encounter rate for rare monsters for me has always been pants.
I'm convinced that Niantic not only apply chance rates on monsters but they're also on players. During community days, I get one or two shinies and my wife next to me ends up with 5 or 6 and we catch the same amount.
During the Go Fest, she absolutely obliterated me on the number of desirable monsters despite me playing for longer and catching more.
I know that odds don't work as simply as the above and it could be bad luck on my part but when something is that disproportionate it does raise questions
So yeah, I'd like rates to be disclosed.
Sounds fine to me but I’m not fretting and will keep playing either way. It makes a good exercise app and never felt the need to spend money on it.
@carlos82 @RupeeClock I mean... Players already know what is in each egg at a given time, there’s guides online for that. I just don’t see how placing a disclaimer with that information within the game itself will somehow solve the problem of “this one Pokémon is super rare to hatch”.
If you ask me, making it possible to discard unwanted eggs would be more helpful. But not by that much.
Unless of course the idea is that would be a deterrent for players, to stop them from focusing on hatching X Pokémon with a .01% hatch rate.
@Eel
Okay, the specific problem with the past event was that Niantic advertised Deino as being available in eggs, that "If you're lucky, you might hatch one" via in-game notifications and update articles.
This statement is intentionally vague and ambiguous, provoking players to try their luck, without discouraging them with a hard figure that you might only have a 0.1% chance of getting the thing.
Niantic will never give players an option to abandon eggs, because they want you to buy incubators to clear out space. That's also why you're limited to carrying nine eggs at once.
Disclosure of egg hatch rates would force Niantic to produce favorable odds that do not discourage players from trying. There are players willing to spend certain amounts of money as long as they believe it can achieve what they're aiming to get.
Going by Silph Road's chart, they hatched 130 eggs that were collected on that first day (the contents are determined upon collection), and none of them had Deino.
Although keep in mind each day's results are collated from multiple players.
To hatch 130 7KM eggs will need at least 15 rounds of incubating. Premium incubators can only be used three times each, so for 15 rounds you'll need 40 premium incubators along with the infinite use incubator.
Incubators are typically available in sales boxes, like the current Adventure Box that includes 16 Super Incubators and 2 Egg Incubators. This box costs 1480 Poké Coins.
So if you were to buy two Adventure Boxes for 2960 coins (roughly $30) and spend all that time and money hatching and collecting eggs, the rate of success is so low that you could still not get a single Deino out of it.
This is on top of constant pressure from Niantic to participate in limited time events that focus on getting rare or exclusive Pokémon from eggs, or participate in raid battles for similar. At least with raid battles, you are guaranteed an encounter with the Pokémon you are vying for, if you win the raid battle. Catching the Pokémon, or a shiny one or one with good IVs, is another matter.
@RupeeClock what was the exact notification? I remember seeing it but I assumed it was talking about the research-based encounters.
I am under the impression that it said 'caught' not 'hatched'. But of course I could be misremembering.
@Eel
I agree entirely with Rupee's post above. It's genuinely quite predatory behaviour against people who just read the in-game news, and buy Boxes, thinking they will have a strong chance at pulling two or three Deinos.
The other issue is the fact that players should not have to rely on outside sources to get information about what is and is not in eggs at any given time. I'm fairly active in my local community, and a majority of the families that play, and occasionally turn up to raid, don't read online guides about it. Why should they have to?
The information about what is and is not in eggs at any given time should be readily available in the game. If a young player really wants an Archen, for example, and knows that they were in 7km eggs two months ago, they may be desperately trying to hatch 7km eggs because they think there is still a chance for an Archen. I use that example because it's actually something that I've encountered, and I had to explain that sometimes the pokemon moved about between egg colours, and that they would have to try and hatch 'the purple eggs', and not 'the yellow ones'.
There is literally no excuse for not divulging egg contents. Fire Emblem Heroes does a... slightly wordy, but functional version of this, and it owns up when it makes mistakes. Without the statistics, Niantic is free to change the egg rates as they choose, and by watching the research groups, they very clearly did change them due to backlash. This isn't the first time they've done it either.
Shiny rates are a different matter, but the actual hatching rates should be public knowledge. It still counts as a lootbox if you have to buy a 'key' (Incubators) to unlock them at a faster rate.
Or... and this is going to be controversial to say...
Don't engage in applications with predatory gambling mechanics.
No reason not to. I've never spent a cent on Pokemon Go, and TBH, that's been more loose with what it gives away recently with the lockdowns. I know people do though, so it's fair to ask about how worthwhile it is to put money on the table.
Spending money in the game never really felt worthwhile because it still feels like what you catch is heavily limited to what Pokemon is on rotation for the day. I might do it sometime since I've had a good time overall with Go, but I've never felt particularly pressured to do it.
Out of 80 7k eggs, not one Deino
Like last year, ultra bonus is literally a scam
They’re going out of their way to screw over non paying players.
That’s going to be hard, the whole pokemon business model is based on addiction, or “engagement” in corporate talk.
You do not NEED to spend money on this game for it to be fun. Anyone who needs "odds" needs a new hobby, i have been a die hard Pokémon fan since red and blue debuted, and have played PoGo since day 1, but i never felt PRESSURED to spend money. Have i? Yeah, But on my own accord. Some people go WAY too hard at this game like it means something. Why can't people just play the game and have fun? The pokecoins you get per day is reasonable, the level up rewards are reasonable, they give you super incubators for free! It's your own fault for using them on garbage eggs that arent 7k or 10k or saving them for something worth while like an event, which there are plenty.
I would love to see the odds. I'm one of the unluckily players; in our group I see one shiny to the rest of my group's five. I have yet to get a shiny from a raid but on the other hand I find 5x more four star Pokemon then everyone else. I understand how odds and random number generators work and have a feeling something isn't quite right.
Deino was so damn disappointing. I hatched some 70 or so eggs. Not a single one. People run round the clock maps in my area. 31. There were only 31 in the whole city during that week that popped up naturally. Even the most hard core fellows who ran after them at 4 am didn’t get a shiny. You know who did? A lot of spoofers.
Since eggs are free and cost no really money there is no gamble you merely need to walk to open them, they needn't reveal the odds as people have pretty much, you are not required pay anything to access the things inside only thing you buy is incubators to speed up the opening and that doesnt affect odds only amount of chances, so this cannot be considered predatory assume that rares are ~2-5%
I’m probably the odd man out here; but to me the whole point of the game is the chase... knowing the odds (for me) would take away from the thrill and experience of hunting down to “catch ‘em all” ...
I love Pokémon Go. People these days expect to get everything handed to them (including stupid yet fun games they play). I think that it makes it more fun if not EVERYONE gets it. Do I want to get special event shiny Pokémon or rare Pokémon in general? Of course I do.... sometimes I do and sometimes I don't. I don't feel like Niantic needs to answer to anyone. It's their game, their rules. Stop crying because you didn't get a participation trophy. 😭😭😭😭
Thanks for giving this issue a wider platform, as every bit of awareness helps. I don't have a strong opinion one way or another on how Niantic chooses to set their various RNG parameters for Pokemon Go, but I'm happily on board with holding them accountable to some kind of transparency regardless. Silph research has repeatedly turned up data sets on RNG manipulation in the game that raises awkward questions.
If nothing else, being officially informed about certain odds will help reality-check my own occasional "RNGesus, have I wronged you?" moments. =P
This campaign is completely misdirected... eggs, raids, lures and incense do not actually qualify as loot boxes...
Eggs are free to obtain in game... incubators help you to hatch them quicker, but the probability is still determined by the free item.
Raids are also free to participate in one a day... premium raid passes give you additional chances, but do not change the probability.
Lures and incense merely give additional Pokemon spawns (which are, again, already available for free)... they typically use the same odds as regular spawns... occasionally certain Pokemon will have an increased chance of spawning as part of an event, but these would be considered a free bonus in addition to the items normal function.
What the campaign should be directed at is the premium events, such as the recent GO Fest... the tickets to access them are paid items that grant access to an exclusive set of spawns, with both specific Pokemon and the chance of getting shiny Pokemon mentioned in their marketing... they fit the description of loot boxes perfectly, so the odds for them should legally be disclosed.
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