A little while ago we wrote about Pokémon GO being a surprising gift for Nintendo. Though it has a stake in the app and evidently had some senior level input into the app, it's a Niantic-developed game in which Nintendo is just one of multiple major investors. Nintendo was a brand on many lips around the release almost by default, and its resulting share price spike broke records on the Tokyo stock exchange.
Many of those investors were jumping on board in anticipation of big dividends, of course, as news of extraordinary downloads and daily revenues well in excess of $1 million were estimated even in the app's early days. Some reality has sunk in now, however, with Nintendo taking a calculated hit before it unveils its Q1 financial results for the year later this week.
With industry figures such as Macquarie Securities analyst David Gibson estimating Nintendo's financial stake in Pokémon GO (based on its ownership of stakes in Niantic and to an extent The Pokémon Company) to be potentially as low as 13%, Nintendo came out in a note to investors and said that any impact from the app's success will be "limited"; it won't be changing its revenue and profits estimates for the year, either, keeping them at the positive but relatively modest levels announced back in May. In other words, due to the big N's actual stake in GO and how profits will be handled and distributed, it's not expecting to make a great deal of extra money from the app this financial year, and has also advised that sales of the PLUS accessory were already factored into its original estimates.
Unsurprisingly this didn't go well in the Tokyo exchange - Nintendo shares plummeted around 18% (the most allowed in the exchange's rules) to 23,320 Yen, apparently the biggest one-day drop in the company's share value since 1990, and accounting for around $6.7 billion in overall company value.
They may fall further in the next day's trading, which will be something to take a look at - Nintendo shares are still more than 60% higher than they were before the GO boost, so it's a question of how much benefit they can hold once the dramatic slump in value ends.
In some ways reality is biting after a lot of hype, though clearly some financial benefit had been expected, even if not at levels to sustain the huge jump in share value of the last two weeks. In any case, Nintendo's next set of financial results will be revealed on 27th July.
[source bloomberg.com]
Comments 53
As was expected really. It's done it's job though, and the Nintendo name is out in the wild once more.
Well it's true. I think Nintendo get the least share of the profits from Pokemon Go but because Pokemon is associated with Nintendo and they're on the Stock Exchange people got carried away.
The upcoming mobile Animal Crossing and Fire Emblem games is where Nintendo will take a much bigger share of the profits. Though they don't have as big a brand name and awareness as Pokemon.
100% agreed with @Iggy-Koopa right there.
What goes up, must eventually come down...
No surprise here.
Not surprising but this has certainly shown the way for Nintendo. We're still possibly underestimating the impact of Pokemon GO on Nintendo as major movie deals loom.
I've been saying it wasn't a Nintendo game for a while now.... =_= but this is expected.
Goes to show that people buying the shares don't actually know anything about companies they take shares in
Once again proves most investors dont kown anything about the shares they buy. 2nd according to what I read apple/google takes 30% of the revenue, niantica another 30%, pokemon company another 30% (its 50% owned by nintendo) and nintendo only gets 10% of direct revenues.
EDIT: I mixed pokemon company with game freak. pokemon company is suposedly owned 32% nintendo and 32% game freak, which in turn is 50% owned by Nintendo.
Lets hope all this renewed interest in Pokémon will lead people back to the original series of games and boost 3DS sales a bit. The full games were always better than spin-offs, including PKMN GO IMHO.
It's all mental.
The media coverage will improve pokemon game sales, console sales and associated hardware and merchandising sales. Just imagine what will happen when we get Zelda go and Mario Go?
Stock markets are dumb.
There has to be some smart investor who saw Pokémon Go on the horizon and bought in just before its release only to sell immediately when Nintendo made the announcement. I wonder how much they would've made per share?
ok im starting to share the sentiment of others getting tired of hearing about pokemon go
Told ya.
Mobile hype is volatile in ways that can be scary. Best not to copy Konami and end up catering to whims of the fickle mobile creatures. I'm kind of happy this is coming down from something so hyped and out of line, it's good for people to come back to reality on this.
So their shares went up because investors were literally too stupid to realise who was actually involvemed in the game.
You can't buy the publicity generated by this game. Certainly given the big N some momentum indirectly.
I have a feeling their share value is going to drop even further once the next financial results are in. It was nice seeing Nintendo on top while it lasted. Hopefully their share value will still stay a good margin above where it was before Pokemon GO was released,
In other financial news, shares in Gucci slump to all time low as it's confirmed the emporor actually is naked as the day he was born...
This is exactly why I wasn't concerned about Pokémon GO's success pushing Nintendo out of the console business, They get so little of the money pie.
But Pokémon Go has caused increase sales in the 3DS Pokegames, which Nintendo dose get a nice fat slice of. This is what Iwata wanted from their mobile games.
Well it was nice while it lasted. U.S. stocks likely to return to normal starting today as well.
But hey, at least the world remembers Nintendo exists again, so that's a plus.
@abe_hikura They get a slice if its a new copy, not the used. They'll see a small boost, but not huge.
@Pres_Shinra make another edit: Nintendo owns nothing of Game Freak, they own part of Creatures.
@Yoshis95 Well you can go outside to avoid the...oops no there are a bunch of GO players outside.
@GrailUK Another plus is merchandise. I've noticed Pokemon sections of stores emptying out
To a gamer this is no surprise, but to a investor with little or no gaming knowledge, this is shocking.
The important thing is this greatly help raise brand awareness for both Nintendo and Pokemon which will translate into more direct sales for them.
It will go back up with the release of that wristband.
@Yoshis95 Would you rather have the return of RumourLife NX Edition?
@Crushermach3 - about 60% on my investment in a little less then a month after fees and taxes.........which if I could do every month I'd own an island in about 2 years
I don't wanna say duh, but I did so... Nintendo may be associated with Pokemon because they have a stake in the companies that program and produce it, but their name isn't even on the software, this stock build-up was based on hype alone, Apple stands to make more money than Nintendo does on GO.
@RoomB31 It depends. Pokemon Go may bring the brand to a mainstream audience and thus increase the sales of the TCG, merchandise, and new games, all of which Nintendo gets royalties from.
@Lzeon Absolutely, in terms of brand awareness. I was mainly referring to the point that in terms of who makes bank for GO itself, and for how many players exist on the project, Nintendo gets the smallest piece.
Bollocks, they earn lot and lots of money because of Microtransactions. Kimishima and company are drunk on the Sake all day because of this!!!
This is just another example of why the stocks are flawed, as their value is determined by what people believe they are worth, and not tied to any actual tangible value.
Nintendo still got Mario and Zelda, 2 very recognisable IP that will sell really well on smartphone.
Rebranding Pokemon Go into Zelda Go could be fun. Instead of monsters you go around looking for treasure boxes. Gym can be turned into a dungeon...
@DarkKirby Stocks are always about growth. The value is growth. Actually for some people who sold at the top there, the stock benefited them greatly. It's so misunderstood because when it's reported readers and even the story somehow seems to intimate the stock price as some sort of company rating or value. It does suggest confidence of traders in growth for whatever that's worth to anyone besides traders.
Companies like Apple and now Nintendo get in these weird situations where massive success causes a tension between what would make the company healthy and what would make the stock "healthy". If Apple doesn't break historical records of sales one quarter, it's a disaster. Only because there was massive bump from pent up demand satisfied the year earlier, though. Nintendo has had more serious issues, but Wii puts things in a similar albeit more long term light.
Anyhow, this is just fine. The affect on the public is not changed here unless somehow they read stories about plummeting stock and decide to stop enjoying Pokemon GO (?) I wish that was outside of the realm of possibility but... well, "the public" astounds me with its ability to emulate sheep on a daily basis. :/
These investors weren't aware that Nintendo's share in pokemon GO was limited?
I bet Nintendo is kicking themselves thinking: "Damn we should've made the Pokemon game ourselves instead of that Miitomo thingy."
@arojilla Creatures Inc is a private company. Nintendo doesn't own any of it.
That brings up the question: how much does Nintendo even get from the main series games, particularly retail copies?
@Flanktwo with amiibo nintendo originally wasn't prepared for people's want of amiibo then and with pokemon go they arn't exactly the ones making it so its really not their fault with go plus.
@Lzeon lol ahahaha XD
@Grumblevolcano i guess the big issue here is really nintendo not giving much to report on
@IceClimbers Depends on the deal they have with Game Freak and Creatures. I'd imagine it'd be a little over a third since Nintendo is covering for marketing, manufacturing and distribution.
Blame Bowser.
And so the roller coaster went down again (stocks)
@XCWarrior
Here is the Pokémon games in this weeks UK's Single format chart.
16 (40) 3DS POKEMON OMEGA RUBY (NINTENDO)
19 (32) 3DS POKEMON ALPHA SAPPHIRE (NINTENDO)
22 (__) 3DS POKEMON Y (NINTENDO)
35 (__) 3DS POKEMON X (NINTENDO)
39 (__) 3DS POKEMON SUPER MYSTERY DUNGEON (NINTENDO)
As you can see below Ruby has jumped 34 places, Sapphire 13 places and Pokémon X and Y have re-entered the top 40 at 35 and 22. Obviously for them to appear on this list they have to be shiny new retail copies so no downloads, No preowned and no game trading/lending
@Lzeon Plus platform holders fee and I imagine they also get the "retail" cut from eShop downloads
I said about a week ago that this bubble would burst. This thin excuse for a Pokemon game is nothing but a short term novelty. As a "game" it just does not have any lasting value. Once the OOOH WOW wears off, it will be dead in the water. It's sad because this had tremendous potential, but like miitomo, it's a joke. There's no real game here. So it can't hold anyone's attention past the initial novelty aspect. Hopefully at the very least it will make people want to buy/play the Pokemon sun/moon games coming out. But anyone (who isn't already a true Pokemon game fan) who played Go will probably be lost and frustrated with the meaty gameplay of sun/moon. The difference between them is like night and day (pun absolutely intended).
@LeRaposa You have it backwards. Ape formed inside Nintendo and developed Mother and Earthbound (Iwata assisted them while at HAL), then the staff from Ape moved to Creatures. Go ask Reddit or GAF if you don't believe me. Heck, even the Wikipedia lists Creatures as a subsidiary while Game Freak is listed as partner just like other studios that don't exclusively work for Nintendo like Platinum, Level-5, Sega or Atlus (look up "List of Nintendo divisions" there).
Not surprised at all. At least people can't use this as an example against Nintendo in terms of their current quality of games. So there's that...but there's still that issue of Star Fox...
@abe_hikura They didn't crack the top 5 for the week. I don't know EU gives exact numbers, but my best guess is that anything out of the top 15 basically gave Nintendo some pocket change so they could maybe go to Subway instead of McDonalds for the week.
Boost yes, so it's positive. But it wasn't stock changing positive.
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