
Stock markets and investing in shares can be a strange affair. Though business acumen and experience can go a long way, aspects of the process can resemble a casino; even just taking Nintendo as an example, the company's share prices soared in March 2015 when the partnership with DeNA and the existence of NX were revealed. The former was the big ticket deal talked about by investors, as it signalled that Nintendo was moving into the smart device market; it had been an ongoing demand from those with financial interests in the company.
The share prices - and therefore Nintendo's value - soared solely on potential, then, which is surprisingly common. In the internet age start-ups can be valued at hundreds of millions of dollars (or more) based on potential alone, before they even turn a real profit, as attention shifts to future monetisation of a concept. On the flipside share prices can drop drastically off the back of one set of underwhelming financial results or even an announcement that doesn't take investor's fancy. It's a capricious part of the world's economy.
As recently as November 2015 Nintendo saw approximately $4 billion slashed from its company value - about 9% - as a reaction, primarily, to the reveal and delay of Miitomo. The fact it wouldn't arrive in 2015 was one complaint, while investors and analysts seemingly lined up to highlight that it wasn't a Mario game, and therefore wasn't what they hoped to see. Again, we had share values spiking or drastically falling off the back of speculation and gut instinct, as opposed to actually seeing whether Nintendo knows what it's doing with the upcoming social app.

Though Nintendo's share price stabilised at the time, it's since continued to dip downwards, and at the time of writing it's sitting at 15,160 Yen (via Bloomberg), which is the lowest it's been since 16th March 2015, right before the DeNA deal saw the share value skyrocket. In the most recent day's trading in Tokyo it lost 1250 Yen per share, or about 7.6% of the company's value. Why was this? A report issued by Nomura Securities, one of Japan's leading financial services groups, shared a belief that the NX could launch as early as October, but the kicker was the assessment of its potential impact on the 3DS and Wii U markets.
Below are the comments from Junko Yamamura, an analyst from Nomura Securities.
We had previously thought that the NX launch would have only a limited impact on 3DS and Wii U sales as it is not being positioned as a successor to either console, but we have now altered our view because 3DS sales have been weakening a little recently, particularly in terms of software, as the machine enters its sixth year, and to factor in a harsher competitive climate and what happened to other existing consoles when new machines were launched in the past.
We still expect the NX to launch in 17/3. We have lowered our estimates for current consoles to reflect the present situation, fiercer competition, and what has happened in the past when new hardware is announced… We have reduced our operating profit forecasts for 16/3 by 5.7% and for 17/3–21/3 by 30.0–32.7%.
To clarify for those that interpret "NX to launch in 17/3" incorrectly as a date, that's referencing Q3 of the 2016 / 2017 financial year, which ties in with the 'October' estimate being given.

In any case, we still find it surprising that there's a perception of the NX existing - at a mainstream market level - alongside a notable 3DS and Wii U presence. We may not yet know the final form of the system, but the clear decline of 3DS sales and the continued limited success of the Wii U means Nintendo will need to direct its most vital resources into ensuring NX succeeds. Close followers of the company will already know this just from assessing trends in game announcements and future releases on the systems, and it seems to be common sense that Wii U and 3DS will fall back to 'last-gen' status when the new hardware arrives. As was the case with DS and then Wii in 2011 / 2012 there'll be some legacy sales, but their time as Nintendo's primary products will pass.
Yet that doesn't stop Nintendo's share value tumbling when this is stated out loud by a respected financial services group. It plays into the bizarre attitude the collective stock market takes - bet big on concepts that meet exacting demands, downvote anything else whether it's been released or not, and believe in evergreen sales despite all logic of the markets and technology sector. The reality is that the 3DS is getting old and the Wii U is still selling a long way below the numbers of its rivals - the idea of NX supplanting the systems and cutting into their sales should not be a surprise.
It's understandable for fans, meanwhile, to want their current systems to be at the forefront for as long as possible; that's especially understandable with the still-young Wii U. Yet let's look at cold facts, and why Nintendo needs to move forward with a new product to help return it to handsome profitability. Below are Nintendo's own numbers that show the continual drop in demand for 3DS, and the ongoing flatline at low levels of the Wii U.
3DS Hardware Sales, per Year
2010 / 2011 - 3.61 million units (accounts only for a brief launch window of one month in Japan, one week elsewhere)
2011 / 2012 - 13.53 million units
2012 / 2013 - 13.95 million units
2013 / 2014 - 12.24 million units
2014 / 2015 - 8.73 million units
2015 / 2016 (6 months) - 2.28 million units, Nintendo is targeting 7.6 million units for the full financial year.
Wii U Hardware Sales, per Year
2012 / 2013 - 3.45 million units (accounts for launch window of November 2012 to end of March 2014)
2013 / 2014 - 2.72 million units
2014 / 2015 - 3.38 million units
2015 / 2016 (6 months) - 1.19 million units, Nintendo is targeting 3.4 million units for the full financial year.
The Nomura Securities report also talks about declining software sales, so let's also put that into numbers.
3DS Software Sales, per Year ('New Titles' varies per region)
2010 / 2011 - 9.43 million units with 20-21 'new titles' (accounts only for a brief launch window of one month in Japan, one week elsewhere)
2011 / 2012 - 36 million units with 86-92 'new titles'
2012 / 2013 - 49.61 million units with 77-97 'new titles'
2013 / 2014 - 67.89 million units with 89-129 'new titles'
2014 / 2015 - 62.74 million units with 78-101 'new titles'
2015 / 2016 (6 months) - 19.2 million units with 29-50 'new titles' , Nintendo is targeting 56 million units for the full financial year.
Wii U Software Sales, per Year ('New Titles' varies per region)
2012 / 2013 - 13.42 million units with 20-44 'new titles' (accounts for launch window of November 2012 to end of March 2014)
2013 / 2014 - 18.86 million units with 30-50 'new titles'
2014 / 2015 - 24.4 million units with 25-30 'new titles'
2015 / 2016 (6 months) - 12.37 million units with 10-16 'new titles' , Nintendo is targeting 23 million units for the full financial year.
These are all figures that have been available since late October 2015, and show us clear declines, particularly with the 3DS. It's worth noting, too, that the portable family is still on a downward trend despite the excellent New 3DS models arriving in Japan and Australia in late 2014, and then Europe / North America in February 2015. They are still, for our money, impressive results for the system considering the market in which it finds itself and its increasingly limited capabilities, but numbers are nevertheless dropping.

As for Wii U, there's some minor growth and a levelling out for the coming year, with the system seemingly having a festive upturn in general sales based on Media Create figures from Japan and limited evidence in North America. Even so, let's be blunt - those Wii U numbers are not good, and will never be perceived as such. We may admire the system and some of its terrific games and feel that it's not had the sales and popularity it deserves, but the figures don't lie. It's a hardware release that simply hasn't delivered for Nintendo, and is unlikely to get even close to matching the momentum of PS4 and Xbox One - especially in the West - with which it's supposed to be fighting for shelf space.
With all of that in mind, the idea that the two current-gen systems will happily and successfully co-exist on the market - where retail space is more limited and competitive than ever - has always seemed rather fanciful. The 3DS may have a bit of long tail into 2017, but retailers (and a small number of remaining developers) will likely drop the Wii U once the NX is revealed. Whatever form the hardware takes - whether it's a hybrid of home and portable gaming, or something entirely different - it'll need to be the main show in town for Nintendo.
The comments of Junko Yamamura regarding the Nomura Securities aren't the prompt for this article; they've done their job in looking optimistically at the market and then adjusting expectations. What frustrates is that investors and even some fans behave as if it's a surprise. As if Nintendo was going to keep three systems ticking along into 2017 and beyond. It makes no sense for the company to do that; we suspect the Wii U is already in the process of being wound down to minimal levels, while the 3DS will likely be catered to beyond this year as a budget device. Neither system has the sales or momentum to justify any effort beyond that.
Whatever the NX is, we'll need to get used to it; it won't share much of the stage with Wii U or 3DS.
[source nintendo.co.jp]
Comments 131
I doubt that the NX is a 'hybrid' device, or if it is, that functionality is being overstated. It'll be a successor to the Wii U, while mobile phones (iOS and Android) will be the de facto 'new' Nintendo handheld format.
Well, considering the hype around it, it's probably going to.
The 3DS will probably stay in the market for another year or so though, much like the GBA and DS. It's just something Nintendo does with their handhelds. Even if the 3DS doesn't really compare in lifetime sales.
I think it should be as strong if not stronger then the ps4 and Xboner so it attracts more developers but still have their own style of games. Also have less gimmicks as a main feature would also help.
If nintendo is planning to take the wii u out this year they at least better have some promotion for those who own wii u. Hopefully backward compatible, Transfer download data etc..
All of this points to the NX being a hybrid mobile and home console system. If phones and tablets didn't exist, this would be a dumb idea because it would cut out the double dipping that people do with owning both a handheld and home console. Because of phone and tablet gaming, Nintendo is forced to combine their handheld and home console into one. This will make it easier for Nintendo to sell their consoles and games and lead to an increase in game sales.
Simply put the Wii U is dead, never mind the shrinking 3DS sales. That's why it's needed. A new console is the only hope of getting third party support back.
While I am eager to hear what the NX actually is and when it will launch, I am almost equally eager to hear about the future of the WiiU and games coming out for it.
This past Christmas, I know of more people that bought the WiiU (with either Super Mario Maker or the Splatoon/Super Smash bundles) than either the PS4 or XBOX one. I think that is due to the age of my kids, their friends and my neices and nephews. In almost all the cases, they are not huge gamers and probably have no idea that they are buying a system that is near death. Most all had the wii and recently started to hear about the wii U with Super Mario Maker coming out.
If NX does come out in 2016 and the WiiU ends abruptly as many feel, there will be a lot of dissatisfied casual gaming families who will have a bad taste in their mouth regarding Nintendo. For those who bought the WiiU on or around launch, we have been enjoying the WiiU for a while already and have heard about the NX coming so the end is not as much of a shock.
Nintendo is in a difficult place - they need to move to the NX fast, but then they also need to be very careful not to abandon the many people who just bought the WiiU.
"In the most recent day's trading in Tokyo it lost 1250 Yen per share, or about 7.6% of the company's value. Why was this?"
The Tokyo market as a whole has lost 4.5% in the past 3 days due to China's slow down and the N Korean madman setting off a nuclear bomb. You can't talk abut any 1 companies share price without looking at the market as a whole, you just can't.
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/.N225
The decline in November was well deserved. Miitomo was delayed and it has a stupid name for the west. And Nintnodo Account was delayed. And Starfox was delayed. And Zelda U was already delayed. All good will from the DeNA announcement earlier in the year was long gone as Nintendo solidified itself Delaydo. Stock investors don't like delays any more than gamers do.
As for what NX "needs" to be, well it needs to be whatever Ntinedo wants it to be, and they aren't telling us yet. But it was envisioned at least in part by Iwata, and he's gone, so who knows if his vision will even hold. Tell me where QOL is and we'll know how well Iwata's hold over Ntindo is, well, holding.
Anything is possible in Ntindo land, they do what they like. Maybe after the Wii U's failure they believed home consoles were finished as a going concern, then BOOM 35 million PS4 sold in 2 years, so maybe home consoles aren't so done after all? Maybe Sony pushes Microsfot out this gen if Xbox One can't keep up so Ntineod has a shot at being #2 next gen with NX, or even this gen if NX gets out fast enough and cheap enough with enough games?
But Ntinedo is going to do what they want. They launched the $100 Wii Mini alongside the $350 Wii U, they took the 3D screen out of the 2DS. Who knows what they are capable of doing, or not doing. They might not even know, or be capable of agreeing on a course. Miyamoto seems to have a lot of sway. What if he DEMANDS Pikmin 4 on Wii U? Who stands up to Miyamoto? We just don't know.
I've followed the videogame industry on a pretty much daily basis since the Atari 2600, and here's my personal take on this: I find discussion of things like sales figures, market share, and stock value nauseating and meaningless as a hobbyist, especially when those things invade a presentation like, for example, E3. No, I'm not ignorant of the fact that these things are important, but the bean counters who place such emphasis on them are putting the cart before the horse. Show me a superbly designed platform with well-rounded, innovative features (online and off) and outstanding game software support (first and third-party) and I'll show you all you need to make those things fall into place. Make GAMERS interested in your product and the investors will follow.
Actually this analysis is why the NX needs to be released in 2017 rather than 2016. Doing everything investors want is a careless option, it'll lead to Nintendo being a third party company like Activision, EA or Ubisoft.
@MrRaven1972 " they need to move to the NX fast, but then they also need to be very careful not to abandon the many people who just bought the WiiU."
But how many people did just buy a Wii U? Or bought one ever? 35 million PS4 in 2 years, 11 million Wii U in 3 years, 100 million Wii in 5 years. The Wii U install base, even if they did get mad and swore off NX, still leaves a lot more potential customers than who haven't purchased a Wii U yet.
Here's the big question - who is the NX for? The 90 million Wii owners who still haven't purchased a Wi U, or the 40 million PS3 owners who still haven't purchasd a PS4? (Xbox360 to Xbox One has similar numbers to Sony.) Are they going back after the casuals, or back after the gamers? We won't really know that until we hear the launch games and 3rd party support. But either way, there are a lot more people out there who don't have a Wii U yet than who do, so mad or not, they can be written off as long as Nintnedo can get 30 million other folks to buy one. And the reality is, most Wii U owners ar eNtinod fan boys, maybe half, so they are going to buy an NX regardless of when it releases, so that's only about 5 million jilted customers. They can withstand that. And people have short memories, if NX is good they'll buy it in 3 or 4 years anyway.
While out on Lunch at work today I was thinking about the idea that maybe the NX isn't completley replacing the WiiU...until 1 or 2 years after the NX launch and even after that it may still receive VC support. The 9th gen Nintendo hardware will use an OS based on the WiiU(although not the hardware) to make sharing assets/games/features across handheld and console easy for devs.
Things designed for WiiU should be easily transferrable/usable to NX. What this could mean is that when the NX releases WiiU software doesn't have to stop. The WiiU's Virtual Console for example could be updated alongside the NX until the 10th generation if its just the same thing. It also means the NX may just have every single WiiU VC titles released from the get-go.
Potentially any WiiU software made to be released released in 2016/2017 could be developed with porting to the NX in mind although not the other way round. Additionally the pricetag of the WiiU is a sign its not on the way out yet, if the NX releases this year I don't think Nintendo will even drop the WiiU's price(it might even work in their favour to make the NX look more appealing and show people they aren't going to drop the NX's price soon either).
tl;dr - Nintendo's not ready for mobile yet nor do consumers want to buy a Nintendo-branded phone, so better to merge the portable/console hardware.
@rjejr I hear you on those points and my family is a Nintendo family so we will likely get one at launch or soon after. It is interesting hearing all the talk about backwards compatibility as well because I am just as content if they don't worry about being backwards compatible. Since we have a WiiU and it is backwards compatible to the Wii, we will be keeping the WiiU likely regardless, and a brand new console is fine in my books.
My main point was that if people who just bought the WiiU don't have any games to purchase this year, that will be highly frustrating for them. I do feel for those people.
Even if they make a bunch of HD remasters and things like that and keep the VC bringing out new content, that will help. But Nintendo has been so bad at that during the WiiU lifespan.
Inb4 weak launch with mostly Wii U ports and another New Super Mario Bros game
Why do people keep bringing up the hybrid idea? PC's, Apple and Android devices come in different specs but the software and OS is backwards compatible across them. Nintendo needs to take the same approach with its future devices: different specs, but technically similar and running under the same OS. So yes, they should still release separate portable and console devices.
What the analyst's are predicting seems mostly like common sense. Supporting two consoles at once has been a tough job. Nintendo just wouldn't be able to support the Wii U, 3DS and the NX all at once.
The Wii U has had a very disappointing amount of sales. Nintendo might be able to do things to make small sales improvements, but it's never going to reach decent figures. The 3DS has sold a good amount, but it's becoming an old console. A lot of people either would have already bought the 3DS or don't want it at all.
Shelf space is another factor that greatly applies here in the UK. Most shops I see selling games have a good amount of space for PlayStation and Xbox, but only a small or non-existent Nintendo section. Most shops here wouldn't stock Wii U, 3DS and NX games.
All things considered, it makes business sense to focus on the NX once it's released. Since I have a 3DS and Wii U, it'll be slightly disappointing for me when support for them dries up, but that was always going to happen eventually. I hope the NX becomes a great success and is full of games that I want to play.
Looking at the half way numbers, they're not nearly half way there. Meaning, they'll miss target.
Investors respond to the downward possibility of profitability. Thus, they make more sense than this article.
I have faith in Nintendo and may hold some stock at these prices. They're cheap and Nintendo could release anything and still be better off than it is today, so it's one way to beat the market as a fan.
@yuwarite Yeah I seriously don't understand the idea that there could even be hybrid. Their new operating system would be rendered completley pointless if there's only going to be one piece of hardware instead of two differently specced ones(Console and Handheld).
If anything Nintendo should always be considering a potential third type of hardware running that OS, not consolidating into a single piece.
If the share price is going down, that just means it's time to invest!
I think people forget that nintendo's console life-cycles tend to be arount 6 years. Ms and Sony were gunning for 10 but they were forced to release their successors due to the announcement of the WiiU. 3DS has been around for 6 years now and, although it's had the 2DS since, is still on it's way out. It seems more likely that NX isn't so much a hybrid, but rather a portable gaming device but with TV connectibility. Does that make it a 'home console' as we know them? Maybe. But it would explain the lack of an optical disc drive. Likewise, would help it to connect to the DeNA service a lot better whilst still hosting big budget gaming. On top of that, with TV connectibility we could see some form of gaming technology which may not be entirely new but is certainly fresh. It could cause nintendo to compete on both the portable side as well as having a strong attack on home consoles too, especially if it's capable of HD graphics and can support processes that the current gen home consoles are supporting.
@MasterWario your frozen caverns mario maker level was great, but just remind me not to let you be in charge of my investments!
I'm kinda sad to see the Wii U go. I do love the hardware and the few games for it. I'm just disappointed in how Nintendo has handled the system. I think if they had done better advertising it would have help. It has been pretty much non existent. The really disappointing virtual console. Crappy online functionality.
I don't think I will bother getting a NX unless it has better specs than the XBOX One and PS4. They could really outshine those systems and have better looking games. I also don't want to upgrade unless all my Wii U software is 100% transferable and playable on the new system. Then it better have better online support. Purchases tied to an account rather than hardware. Better friends list. Be able to voice chat with people and have party chats with friends.
@MrRaven1972
But, just like most didn't realize and/or care that the Wii U came out (They just kept their Wii), the majority of casual gamers such as you mentioned will not care and/or realize when the NX comes out (they'll just keep their Wii U).
It's not like as soon as the NX comes out, there will be nowhere to buy Wii U software. I'm sure itll still be on store shelves, if even in a small bargain bin section, plenty long enough and strong enough to satisfy those casual types.
It's time to put to bed the speculation of a hybrid console. In Iwata's own words-
"In contrast, the number of form factors might increase. Currently, we can only provide two form factors because if we had three or four different architectures, we would face serious shortages of software on every platform. To cite a specific case, Apple is able to release smart devices with various form factors one after another because there is one way of programming adopted by all platforms. Apple has a common platform called iOS. Another example is Android. Though there are various models, Android does not face software shortages because there is one common way of programming on the Android platform that works with various models. The point is, Nintendo platforms should be like those two examples."
NX will either be the first of multiple form factors in a family of products or Nintendo may simultaneously launch both a new portable and console with a shared OS in the same year. Both DS and WiiU need to be replaced and the company needs to entirely move away from dual screen designs.
@rjejr
How come you intentionally misspell Nintendo every single time you spell it?
NX needs to take over, but as two (or three ) separate STANDALONE devices that are capable of interacting with each other and contain a standardized OS and store and development platform so games can be played across all devices.
Of course there will be still be exclusives to take advantage of the differing processing and graphics capabilities of each machine and whatever gimmicks they may or may not contain, but Nintendo should release NX as a platform where developers can release games that work across the various hardware configurations that Nintendo will release (like with Android, iOS, PC/Mac/Linux).
In short, the Wii U is a failure and the 3DS was using outdated hardware when it launched.
And don't give me that "graphics don't make a game great" crap, because while a game isn't great because of graphics alone it's not like they don't matter, otherwise we'd all be still playing on the NES and Gameboy.
@BlueSkies NX is both devices most likely - an NX Handheld and an NX Console. Do a staggered release to cater to regional tastes (remember, Japan likes handhelds and the west likes consoles). November 2016 - NX Console in the west, NX Handheld in Japan. Spring 2017 - NX Handheld in the west, and maybe the NX Console in Japan. Then a year or so later an NX Handheld XL
I think it will be next gen home hardware with a pack in controller that realises what the GameCube invented 15 years ago.it will be next gen hardware with the Wii u Gamepad being assymalted into a 3ds successor.
Think a PS4 with vita in one bundle, but the handheld is infinitely better.
The smartphone integration is for distribution and account services aswell as Nintendo apps and comms.
I'll die laughing if this ends up not being the hybrid system everyone is assuming it'll be. Just because everyone has come to the conclusion that "it has to be, because look at the sales" really makes no sense at all. Even if you think the whole concept is a good idea, it doesn't mean it'll end up being. Unless there is some sort of proof, at this point these massive articles are just ridiculous angry nerd clickbait. Whoopie if we get the hybrid system anyway, just lol @ the "I'VE GOT THE FACTS" conversations that even staff take part in.
NX shouldn't have any trouble getting some Japanese 3rd party support.
Western AAA blockbuster and M rated support is gone for good unless Nintendo targets NX console at the 15-35 males who buy shooters, M-rated games, and sports games.
This would mean Nintendo would need to kill nearly all E and T rated games. Nintendo would also need to end it's own stable of 1st party games and focus on making M-rated games.
In order to win full 3rd party support back, Nintendo need to subsidize their development and send their employees over. Nintendo also needs to drastically scale back their internal 1st party development and releases.
Sony has released less than 15 1st party developed retail games on PS4!
Microsoft released less than 20 1st party developed retail games on Xbox One!
None of their 1st party games compete directly with 3rd party games and release schedules.
Nearly all of their 1st party games are M-rated and/or shooters.
Though with a unified OS and development architecture it would free up a ton of resources. It would also sped up development.
NX should have a big library of mostly cross platform titles. Though it would be left up to the developers.
The launch should consist of a few must have 1st party titles showing of the systems exclusive features on top of the 3rd party ports (it's rare to get exclusive 3rd party games at launch)
NX needs compelling features and content you can't get anywhere else.
@yuwarite
Short answer, the reason why everyone is high on a hybrid system is because the Wii U is already a hybrid of sorts and rumors and company statements seem to point further development in this direction.
Potentially there is more money to be made for Nintendo in smart phone gaming. Already this trend has marginalized the market for the Wii U and 3ds. It makes a lot of sense for Nintendo to consolidate their home console with their handheld as one product and sell that to the gamers while putting their attention to making billions off of smart phones.
i suspect that the nx will be a hybrid handheld/home console by providing a portable way to play home console games. that way, it won't directly compete with their own 3ds. that portable is probably buoying them up right now. it wouldn't be that good an idea to replace it just as they updated it and promote replacing your old one with the new one. it's possible that the nx can play 3ds games at higher resolution and 3d if the tv supports it, in which case, it still won't replace the 3ds, it'll fill a space in the 3ds lineup, from vanilla and xl, to nx. n that case, i'm naming it now: the 4dx.
without a disc drive, the nx might dock with the wii u so that it can use it's optical drive for legacy disc games and keep the nx much cheaper, simpler, and more reliable. new games for the nx could possibly be via cartridge that holds the lower-rez portable versions of the game. anybody who wants the home console version can download it via the internet or transfer the data at the store via kiosks like the old disk system.
@iflywright
Don't expect Nintendo to make billions on smartphones. The mobile market is extremely volatile and reaching global saturation. Very few companies have been able to make decent profits off of mobile gaming. The two most profitable companies in mobile gaming are Rovio and King (now owned by activison). All the rest are lucky to hit $10 million in a year.
In regards to 3DS: Pokemon. Important to the dedicated gaming handheld market the 3DS is mostly alone in. Doubtful the next main gen entry is going to 3DS
The NX needs to be as powerful or more than the Wii U to replace it as the new home console. While iPads and Android Tablets can mimic the home console games, they don't always match those type of caliber games. So either, we really do get a new super NX that is the next home console, or a partial dumbed down version of one. Just like the 3DS is new, but essentially runs N64 & GameCube games.
For those who skipped out on Wii U, oh well, they don't know what they missed.
@Grumblevolcano third party? The could put out three or four more failures and still be far from sega broke. They turned a constant profit for over thirty years but they have two bad ones and it's like none of that money ever existed. In the end Sony will become an app and Xbox will become an app. Nintendos lack of interest in keeping up with these guys and technology in general solidify s my opinion that they will be the last ones to put out a real console.
Whatever it is and whenever it comes out, I'm not upgrading until a year after launch. After buying the Wii U the first year, I learned to wait 1-2 years when I bought a 3DS and had tons of stuff to play as opposed to having to wait. Also, the 3DS and Wii U have so many good games coming soon, I wont need to upgrade for a while.
@Xenocity I don't understand the whole go mobile thing people have with Nintendo. Not one mobile company has pulled in as much in a year as Nintendo even during the years they had a loss.
Those Wii U numbers are terrible but at least they get close to 100% of the software sales!
I have no faith in NX to be a big seller but I am looking forward to MK9!!
Without GTAVI, FIFA17 and CoD35 the NX will fail harder than Wii U.
@DreamOn The next main series game will definitely be on 3DS, as they're still not done with Gen 6. The first Gen 7 games will be on NX though.
Based on what I've seen so far, two of my predictions will be coming true: Wii U will not outsell GC, and will top off at 12~15 million units total, and NX will indeed launch this year--exactly as I've been saying for the last year.
I also expect NX to be technically weaker hardware than the PS4.
Its pretty obvious where they are going with the NX. Cant believe people aren't thinking outside of box The days of a controller to a box to a TV are long gone.
@IceClimbers Yep just like Black 2/White 2 on DS, Z will be a 3DS exclusive.
@Dr_Lugae Does apple have an empty app store every time they release a new phone? I think nintendo will learn from this.
@Grumblevolcano Exactly.
Anyways, my big prediction:
NX sells 40 million units lifetime (35 million of the NX Handheld, 5 million of the NX Console). That's probably realistic, if not slightly optimistic.
I'll be buying the Nintendo nx at launch with a stack of games no matter what. I doubt it will completely replace how my wii u is on 90% of the time our tv is on. It is our media device. Netflix, YouTube, Internet and gaming all on my gamepad or 54" hd. My 3ds goes in my pocket when I get home from work daily. It's my main gaming device. Our ps4 is used for rocket league and bloodborne. I would like nx to replace my need to have a iPhone and 3ds in my pockets.
Only reason to buy consoles at launch is if there is a game what you really really really want play soon as possible, or you are a nerd and want to get newest toys right up. Think about if you buy PS3 now, you would get console and games very cheap and you could pick best games on the top.
For me, the NX better be a Wii u replacement and it better be comparable with what is already there is power and support. if it's not, it's ready a dead system to me. I also know that if it is what I want, i know I won't be getting until until a year after release because A) It will drop in price and B), better bundles and more limited editions.
@Protocol_Penguin I'm not sure that they would replace dedicated handhelds with smartphones. Historically, each generation's handheld has greatly outsold their own home consoles. Even in the age of smart devices, a parent is more likely to buy their kid a cheaper, portable console. And anyway, Nintendo would never be able to permanently stay at the top of the charts. All the big mobile games of a couple of years ago have been forgotten about and replaced with new trends. Also, if the 3DS's F2P titles are any indication, they would never be able to go full out money-drainer, like King and Supercell. Which is probably for the best.
No way. The combined unit would be sold at a high price and Nintendo needs to keep the NX price well below the Xbox and PS4.
Attach a 3ds, that's fine for those who want to play games from main screen to handheld. But this combined unit sounds like another gamepad gimmic which did not work.
@ThomasBW84 thanks for the coverage; those nauseated by the content need to get over their compulsion to read nauseating things.
the fact is that to me, as an investor and a gamer, it's interesting to get facts from those more tapped in than I in either realm. that's one of the reasons why i pay attention to the news.
i'm glad this organization is about the big picture; it's exactly what'll keep me coming back.
It pains me to say it but Nintendo performance this year has been poor! And I worry that the company is just moving in a direction which will fail to see them arrive back on top.
The lack of arcade, FPS and voice chat in thier games will allways mean that the sales of the NX will be from fans not converts. And as the fan numbers stand this is the total number of Wii Us sold todate. So I'd expect the NX numbers to be the same.
If Nintendo go high power and voice chat they could attract the other crowd but may lose a few core followers.
And then we have the digital purchases, if all games are available digitally only in a playing field where the competition still have pyshical they may fail to convert or even get fan sales.
THE FUTURE IS ROCKY AND CAREFUL STEPS ARE REQUIRED.
@faint
That's because the profits made from mobile is literally split between Apple who makes 92% of hardware profits and Samsung who makes the rest.
Software profits are driven by IAPs and ads, not actual software sales.
People just see big numbers and do not understand them.
King is the most profitable mobile company of all time and was seeing their profits shrink each passing year as people grew tired of the Candy Crush and other F2P games.
This is why they sold the company to Activision a few weeks ago for a huge mark up.
Long term King is screwed as is Rovio.
No mobile game developer has a sustainable long term (5 years from now) model.
@KingofSaiyans
Very few.
I don't care for most violent games.
The only M rated games I have this gen are Bayonetta 1&2 and 007 Legends.
Last gen I had a few more, but I don't care for most shooters, violent games and others.
Most of the games I own are E, E10+.
I own plenty of T rated games too.
But what I said about "hardcore" gamers is based on NPD market data and their buying habits are clearly defined.
Removed - inappropriate language
NX (if a home console) will not be as powerful as PS4 or Xbox One but I do think it will be a similar par to the capabilities as the two other consoles, be it, a little worse. But there is nothing wrong with this. Also think NX won't be released until 2017 at the earliest. But I do think NX, Wii U & 3DS will all exist in the same timeframe for a year or two.
@Quorthon where the HECK have you been?!
@LetsGoRetro it's not intentional, I can't remember exactly why but I do remember @rjejr mentioning it in the past. But it's not intentional, and I'm sure you didn't intend to offend but be a bit more careful in case you cause offence... 👍
@AtlanteanMan Amen. I've been plating since the 2600 as well and I couldn't agree more with your statement.
@Quorthon: Where have you have been?! I missed your logical arguments towards the Nintendo loyalists ( including myself early last year).
I do think the NX must come out this year. Nintendo is not associated with most gamers tastes anymore, console wise. They need to drop something new with more games than expected. I get hate for playing my N64 and Gamecube more than my Wii U. But to me, there was an intangible fun to those systems, and it was a lot more than just Mario and Zelda. I hope the NX does that, and I hope Nintendo brings back their Sports Division. I don't want Mario Strikers. I want Ken Griffey Jr. Slugfest.
As long as I have my Super Mario games from then until now, Nintendo can do whatever.
These numbers were recorded before the holidays, which are the most successfull times.
Am I the first to predict the Nintendo watch running the NX operating system? If so, you can thank me later.
@belfastgonzo ok
I just hope Nintendo continues to have the 3D screens for it's handheld whether its a new stand alone device or it's part of this NX hybrid theory. I've grown quite fond of the 3D effect in my 3DS games.
@IAmDeclanJay no thanks
The merging of the handheld and console development divisions into one, coupled with all the recent rumours, would certainly suggest that a hybrid is on the cards.
In terms of sheer numbers I can see why people would think this a wise move. Sadly some people might not make the jump to the new hardware. If 50 million 3DS' sold is compared with only 10 million Wii U sales, that's 40 million that aren't guaranteed to be on the NX bandwagon.
@westman98 Not really, the trend of Nintendo console sales excluding the DS/Wii would predict those numbers. That's not pessimistic, rather realistic.
This guy from Nomura Securities deserves a Nobel Prize in Economics. He basically says the the next Nintendo will hurt sales of the old one. Genius. No-one would ever have thought that.
Next week: new iPhone spells sales disaster for old iPhone.
@Xenocity What are you talking about? Samsung is ahead of Apple in the market share when it comes to mobile...
Well at least we know and should be thankful that the NX isn't a VR device given how the Oculus price announcement has gone over like a lead balloon.
All I know is whatever the hell they do with the NX I better NOT have to buy my VC library over....again.....ill be quite pissed😡
ANOTHER POINTLESS SPECULATION NX ARTICLE 2K16 YEAH
@Grumblevolcano
Selling 40 million NXs in a presumably 5-6 year period is most certainly not within the trend of Nintendo's sales trajectory. Nintendo has sold about 60 million handhelds (GBs) + 50 million SNESs during the 4th gen (1989-1996), about 58 million handhelds (mostly GBCs) + 33 million N64s during the 5th gen (1996-2001), about 80 million GBAs + 20 million GCNs during the 6th gen, and probably around 70-80 million 3DSs and 12-15 million Wii Us during the 8th gen. Nintendo selling 40 million NXs is a cataclysmic decline. Like I said, unless Nintendo only keeps the NX on the market for 2-3 years before releasing a successor or they really, really, really, really mess up, selling that few would be difficult.
@Grumblevolcano Yup. I mostly based it on a few things:
-The dedicated handheld market continues to shrink. The young kids demographic is the main loss here, but college kids, Pokemon/Yokai Watch/Monster Hunter fans, and enthusiasts buy into the NX Handheld. Numbers would be lower, but the Vita converts make up some ground.
-The number of Nintendo fans that buy both systems is smaller due to them playing the same games. A necessary hit.
-Nintendo fans that decide to jump ship completely.
@IceClimbers
The dedicated handheld market has definitely shrunk, but has it shrunk to the point where Nintendo can only sell 35 million handhelds in a typical? 5-7 year generation. Barring so scenario in which all of Nintendo’s first party games as well as Monster Hunter/Yokai Watch/Dragon Quest experience a drastic decline in popularity, I can’t see your projection coming true, especially with the prediction that Nintendo will only be able to sell 5 million NX consoles...
Now, of course, none of us know what the NX is. I am going with the assumption that the NX handheld and NX console will both abandon the aging and increasingly less popular DS and Wii brand names and will feature more a modernized hardware architecture and online infrastructure (and screen resolutions, for the handheld) to better compete, or at least stand out, in this current market. If the NX handhelds is literally another 3DS and the NX console is literally another Wii U (thus signifying that Nintendo has not changed their business strategy whatsoever), then yes, your sales prediction is definitely reasonable.
@westman98 Fair enough. My prediction is just that after all - a prediction. I think the hard thing to figure out is just how much the dedicated handheld market has shrunk - I do think it has shrunk more, meaning the next handheld won't sell quite as well as the 3DS, but did it shrink a lot, or only a little?
Also, does the NX Console do better or worse than the Wii U? It's really hard to say.
The 3DS had a sucky lineup in 2015, which might be partly the issue. But 2016 looks a 100 times better. The Wii U lineup looks about the same strength in 2016, which means some hits and probably several misses.
Either way, the NX better be backwards compatible with both systems. Particularly because i dont want to not be able to carry FE Fates on me at all times
@MJKOP Thanks for sticking up for me, but it's not necessary, people are always asking me about my inconsistent Nintendo typos. Why anybody thinks it's on purpose though I'll never know, it's just a hard word to type, it has more than 4 letters.
@IceClimbers
I think the launch of the NX handheld will reinvigorate Nintendo's handhelds market from its current state given that 1) it's a new Nintendo handheld and 2) it will probably be their first modernized, HD portable, which should generate a decent amount of attention that the 3DS never got. However, in the long term, the overall handheld market will likely stagnate and decline (the almost certain lack of a PS Vita 2 will contribute to that as well).
The NX console should perform better than the Wii U as long as it doesn't have the words "Wii" in the name. Selling a mere 5 million NX consoles would be a spectacular failure. A truly, spectacular failure.
Article on Forbes covering the news:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2016/01/06/analysts-now-projecting-nintendos-nx-announcement-in-june-retail-release-in-fall/?utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix
My favorite part - Nintendo, king of delays,
What has Nintendo done in 2015? Not much. They were suppose to have a replacement for the Nintendo Club, that didn't happen. Their in-house releases for 2015 lacked a lot of the quality fans expect. Nintendo has pretty much phoned it in for most of 2015. As a Wii-U owner I'm kind of miffed. Two years and out to pasture for the Wii-U isn't instilling a lot of confidence in the company. I'm not sure what the NX tagline will be, maybe "Trust us this time".
How is the 3DS not making profit for Nintendo? It sold nearly 60 million units.....
@ThomasBW84: ''These are all figures that have been available since late October 2015, and show us clear declines, particularly with the 3DS.''
I have no problem with the argument you're trying to make, but I cannot see how you'd call the Wii U hardware and software sales on a decline, they've been steady for the last few years, a drop of one million in software sales is irrelevant in that case. I can agree on the 3DS, but you make it sound as if the Wii U sales are on a decline as well.
@MrRaven1972 I get your point, but honestly this happens every console cycle. People get the console late in its life, perhaps due to the price cuts and great bundles, when new hardware is about to release. If people are going to spend that much money on a system, they should do a little research on it. Nintendo's only job is selling units and entertaining people with the great games they have released over the years for wii u, probably all for much cheaper now. It's not their fault if folks purchased their machine too late, ya know? Either way, itll be a difficult task for them.
I still think the price of the Wii U played a major role in it failing so bad.
That and lack of proper advertising.
I hope they've learned to advertise.
NX is going to need all the advertising it can get.
I won't be surprised if the NX is aimed at the casual market. I mean, there are only a billion signs pointing to that scenario...
Sure hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it. The evidence pretty much speaks for itself unless Nintendo are about to do a massive U-turn. Again, doubtful.
I believw it will certainly take over from wiiu, i'm less certain about it taking over from 3ds but lets see what happens.
@iflywright They could still do that with their handheld through HDMI out and a plastic dock. The home console needs to be something that technically competes with the PS4 and gets 3rd party console support, otherwise there's little point to it replacing Wii U.
If NXes will have the same OS for handheld and home console, hardware sales per iteration won't matter since Nintendo could release hardware every time there's a need to like every two or three years. It's the number of install base that matters. It's like iPad 1, 2, air, mini, iPhone 123456, Samsung S1233556, etc. They can all play old "versions" of games in the newer devices with some few restrictions depending on the OS version and hardware capabilities supported by these games.
Just give me Pokemon NXYZ
@Protocol_Penguin Nintendo doesn't see mobile (IOS/Android) as a dedicated gaming plateform nor should they, it's not. They believe there's a market for a dedicated gaming device which is not the same as mobile users.
So no, they won't abandon their handheld business with NX in favor of mobile. Nintendo on mobile will be its own thing.
BUT you are kinda right on one point. Handheld business will be much closer to their home console business.
@Monkey_Balls which signs ?
I had a dream I had an NX last night..it was a virtual reality based console, with quite a few games. The most interesting was like an open world game set in Mushroom Kingdom, where I was trying to work through a grass maze and avoid wigglers. The other games were ports of Mario Kart 8 and Smash Bros Wii U, and Splatoon 2. The VR headset looked pretty standard, when you switched it on the nintendo logo game up in silver and sprung up around you, it looked great!! Hopefully my dream will come true!!
So many great posts here for such an annoying topic, because the NX and its launch date are still anyone's guess.
I love my Wii U and I've got Devil's Third and Mario Maker in my backlog. With Zelda and Star Fox coming this year, and Mighty No. 9, I'll be enjoying my wii u regardless through 2016.
(That is until MK9 or Splatoon 2 launch!)
I do not see why N should replace 3DS with something new. Wii U? Yes, I see. But 3DS? I bought mine on day one and still happy with it. It has games and 3rd party support is well. May be some sort of new technology will me introduced. But still 3D effect did not become system seller for 3DS.
Pretty big year coming up - I think Nintendo have to follow consumer demand a bit more than they usually do - The company tends to try giving potential customers something they never imagined wanting - And that has payed off in the past. But it is getting to the point where features Nintendo ignore are becoming basic requirements - crossbuying, state of the art visuals, software for a broad palette or demographic of tastes.
Rumblings in the air suggest that the NX will address these issues + more but the confused messages of whether Wii U will continue alongside, whether Nintendo intend to release a Mario mobile game etc are bound to make investors nervous. It's like being onboard a sinking ship, hoping that a brand new sparkly 21st-century-plus boat is being built and will be available to hop aboard before everything sinks.
I know that's a little over- dramatic but this is a company under pressure to deliver more, And they probably will - we learn from our mistakes and despite how great Splatoon and Mario Maker are, they are tied to inadequacy - The Wii U was a glaring mistake in so many ways that needs learning from and not repeating.
@Octane Yeah, fair enough, though I do make the point that the Wii U figures are poor regardless, so are never going to be enough for a long term future. The system deserves better, but sadly it's not doing the business.
Nintendo are not replacing wii u and 3ds anyway they will be supported for a quiet a while to come especially the 3ds. We don't even know what nx is yet and remember Nintendo with that dena company are putting together that network that encompasses nx wii u and 3ds as well as pc and mobile. Analysis are debating wether nx will be shown this year or not i am with the ones that think it won't and if they do i think it will be the end of the year reveal with a 2017 release.
@AmyGrrl the wii u is going to be supported for the next few years at least. Besides Nintendo tend to do backwards compatibility the right way so i would imagine wii u games will play on nx i will be surprised if they don't
@rjejr
The real question, imho, is why it upsets people so much. I get a kick out of seeing the various incarnations in your posts.
We seem to be in a 'serious phase' here lately and those of us with a dryer sense of humour aren't always appreciated when discussing important topics such as these. The tongue in cheek approach seems to lead to garbled understanding rather than laughs.
If it wants to succeed and compete with the latest generation, then the NX need to be everything that the Wii U isn't.
It needs to have at least one solid title to draw people to it that isn't another New Super Mario Bros. title. Looking back, the Wii u launched with 32 titles. The only interesting one was ZombiU... and that wasn't special enough to draw anyone to the system.
The marketing needs to be significantly better as to associate it as a separate and new system. I'm still encountering people that think the Wii U was just a $300 accessory for the Wii rather than being an entirely new system.
As far as hardware goes, it needs to compete with Sony and Microsoft and function similar to how they do. It needs way more internal memory and it needs to not be weird about adding more.
@LetsGoRetro "intentionally misspell Nintendo"
I guess you'll just have to trust me that it's never intentional, I just can't type it correctly for whatever reason. I do think I can spell properly it if that makes you feel any better.
@k8sMum Happy New Year! You are correct about the "Serious phase". Those "Censorship" articles get comepeltly out of control. And when NX is finally announced it could get worse, as it's either going to be a cheap console for causal gamers and no 3rd party support so people will complain about the lack of that, or it's going to be a PS4/Xbox1 clone, but be too expensive so people will complain about that. But I imagine it being a very divisive console, and after the Wii U failure everybody around here is already on pins and needles. I am hopeing for the best though.
@Cyberbotv2
Busy, I suppose. I had a very rough year for most of 2015, and meandered elsewhere. I have two primary hobbies--gaming and Transformers, and they tend to go in cycles. I'm a bit more focused on the robots lately. A bad break-up soured my 3DS use as she and I did that a lot together, and things have been pretty light on the Nintendo front overall. Blah blah blah.
Also, after releasing our game on Wii U to no sales (despite positive reviews), we got approved for PS4 development. In the process of starting another game focused on PS4 (also for Wii U), the unexpected happened, and we passed Steam Greenlight, so we got sidetracked yet again modifying our game for Steam. There was a lot going on. That released just before the Steam holiday sales, and we outsold the Wii U version almost instantly, sans reviews or attention.
A lot going on, as it were. Life was all curve balls and knuckle balls and change-ups over 2015.
@Quorthon : Sounds like you had a turbulent 2015 my friend. I hope 2016 is better for you. And I'm glad your game sold well on Steam. The user base is so large now, and they've made it a snap to purchase games. Any non first party publishing on Wii U faces an uphill challenge even with advertisement and promotion. That's a shame.
My only concern is about the last 3DS games (probably refined RPGs) who will be released in Japan and will never make it to the West because, you know, old devices games localization can't bring money.
I think the point being made here is that even if the console goes off in a drastic new direction, In the eyes of the general consumer and retail, it will take over from the Wii U and 3DS. As Nintendo cannot support 3 devices fully, and retail will basically only want to display the newest and best thing Nintendo has. Thats why Nintendo sections in stores these days are basically just amiibo shops.
I imagine most people outside the hardcore Nintendo fan base want 'an' Nintendo Item in their life so they can have a Mario Zelda fix. They will just buy the newest item available, not all 3.
If Nintendo struggle to support two consoles, it makes no sense to introduce a 3rd into the mix. It will also just confuse the consumer further as they try to see the difference between them all.
I also don't see why it would be more powerful then the PS4.That system is so successful and is not going anywhere. Activision, EA, Ubisoft etc will optimise their games for PS4 (and XBOX) and then port to the Nintendo Platform. If Nintendo makes a console more powerful then the PS4 EA are still only going to make the next FIFA as good as the PS4 can handle. And Nintendo has proven that their first party games are no overly reliant on processing power.
The current state of development by Nintendo shows what they can produce for 3 platforms at once......not a lot. Once the thing actually releases this is likely to worsen
A final thing to note, is that I imagine a lot of people have got a wii u in the last 18 months and are writing their comments of it lasting into 2018 in hope more then expectation. Skylanders and Infinity will probably come out until those dates on the wii u. and you might get a new dance party game each year. But no big budget Nintendo game (that we don't already know about) will be released on the Wii U from now on. Much in the same way that in 2011 Skyward Sword was the Wii's swan song.
Now the Wii u is coming to the end of its life. I think Nintendo should port over to PS4?Xbox some of the better wii u games, MK8,Splatoon etc. Doing this would not harm sales on wii u, would get some decent free interest in the NX, and make loads of much needed cash for nintendo. win win for gamers and nintendo.
@Quorthon What game did you make? Congrats on your Greenlight success, man!
This article is asinine to say the least. I don't even know where to start when even wrapping my head around this article.
The 3DS didn't have any stellar non-niche (aka system seller) titles in FY 2015-2016 (March 01, 2015 to Feb. 25, 2016) nor even a decent price cut nor bundle to even help with sales momentum. (BTW I'm under the opinion that, Yo-Kai Watch is too Japanese to sell in the West) With the Wii U, god help the Wii U...
The problem with that logic assumes that the customers' 3DS and Wii U just magically stops "working". It doesn't work like that Mr. Whitehead. Nintendo needs to STOP dropping off legacy systems like did the N64/GameCube/Wii. Heck even Sony does a better job with this then Nintendo with God of War 2 being released in 2007 after the debut of the PS3. Your viewpoint is very anti-customer.
@mjc0961 Written better than anything that I could have written. Thank you! I'm getting sick of let us write about nothing and pretend we are making a statement.
I would personally like it if the NX came out in 2017 or later, merely so that Nintendo can say that the Wii U had a full, solid 5 years or more on the market before their next project was released, and so they can milk the Wii U for all its worth to bring in those sales and let more people enjoy this gem of a console
@ThomasBW84 If you want to do an update - the NASDAQ (NY stock exchange of predominantly technology stocks) - is down about 3% today, it's getting hammered, but Nintendo is UP about 2%. How the heck Nintendo is up 2% while the entire stock market world is down over 2% I'll never know. And I've looked, but I can't find a single reason for it to be practically the only stock on the planet to be up, but it is. Maybe your article on 2016 optimism inspired investors?
Does CNBC let foreigners (no offense) view it's website?
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/NTDOY
Oh, for the record, I don't know if Nintendo is actually part of the NASDAQ, but check any finical website anywhere, practically the entire world is in the red, except Nitneod which is up 2%. That's optimism at work. Wish I could figure out why though, then you could write another article about the uptick.
@Sceptic
I deliberately kept what I did unmentioned on here so as to not confuse my attitudes as a gamer with my hope for some level of success as a developer. We averaged around a 7/10 for the game initially. No Steam reviews yet. We did a soft release to make sure we could address any bugs. One Achievement may still be buggy.
But, I haven't been around here much, so it's likely many forgot past conversations.
http://store.steampowered.com/app/403300/
@rjejr Bloomberg has the closing day climb on the Tokyo Exchange (which is what I follow) at 0.43%, which is good but not enough on its own to really point to anything, unfortunately.
@ThomasBW84 No, I wouldn't have taken up your time for 0.43%, but the green 2.01% surrounded by a sea of red seemed interesting. Nikkei 225 (which Nintendo doesn't seem to be part of that either) is down 2.33% today, 6.65% for the week. So if Nintendo is down ~6.5% for the week on the Tokyo exchange that puts it right in line where it should be, relative to the rest of the falling market. Not to say you aren't correct in your argument that those analyst comments had some affect on Ninteod's stock, just that it was a tiny blip relative to the market's movements as whole. And sitll, up .43 is still better than down 2.33. But it seems to have balanced itself out.
Have a good night TW, time to go.
@rjejr While I love reading your commentary, and this is slightly off topic, I just gotta ask if you are constantly mistyping Nintendo incorrectly on purpose? Ha. I just find it funny because you seem like a good speller and typer in general, and quite intelligent...but, on Nintendo dedicated website, it's sort of humorous that you frequently type that company's moniker, even multiple times in a single post lol. Not trying to criticise, just genuinely curious is all...
I'm on my tablet so I can't type out very much, but I'd like to add that the Japanese economy in general has been in a period do steep decline due in no small part to the slowly crashing Chinese stock market. Investors are wary of many powerful and traditionally successful companies, including Nintendo. Combined with the very poor sales numbers for Wii U, the delay Miitomo, the rise of mobile gaming, and the 3DS reaching the end of its natural lifespan - along with the uncertainty surrounding NX - and you can see why Nintendo's stock would have likely declined anyway.
As for NX, I'll go on the record as stating that the system will probably be some sort of hybrid, but will not be in the sort of way that everyone is expecting. The system will be more a gaming PC than would be expected of Nintendo. I'm also going to predict that backwards compatibility with the Wii U will NOT be a part of the console at launch, but may be added (digitally) at a later time. Nintendo will not make the Wii U a large part of their legacy. They will drop the Game pad on the NX entirely, not to mention a completely different architecture all but ensures, to me, that Wii U will not factor into NX much at all, especially not at launch...if ever.
That might tick off a certain dedicated sect of Nintendo's consumer fanbase...but, I think they're going to cut their losses and unceremoniously drop Wii U by the end of 2016. And I can't really say that I'll blame them! Especially since I strongly expect the NX to launch this year.
Also, I'd like to note my own theories on the significance behind the NX codename. I'm not sure if these have already been mentioned elsewhere, but here are my personal thoughts on it anyway...
I guess we'l find out soon.
@rjejr When the entire exchange is down, that means either very large companies, or most companies in general, are down. There are a ton of possible reasons as to why a company's stock might be up or down on any given day, but just because there's a bad day on the stock market for most companies, or just really big companies, doesn't automatically mean all companies are having a bad day at the market.
As for the article itself, financial investors are doing exactly what you'd expect them to do. I find it strange to be complaining about Nintendo's /share price/ being down of all things. If you're gonna discuss things like stock price fluctuations, I would've expected a more technical analysis.
What's really going to hurt is when consumers (real ones, not the 'fans' that will buy any nonsense Nintendo puts out and rate it 10/10) weigh in about how much confidence they have in Nintendo delivering more than short term support on their investment. I mean, even ignoring the WiiU, look how Amiboo has predictably turned into nothing more than a quick cash grab. Like the 'gamepad focused' content they announced for the WiiU, they have yet to deliver on the promise of any meaningful use of the things beyond milking their ever-foolish fans for cash. Amiboo remains a gimmick at best. You get more out of any Skylanders figurine.
And where's the talk about the grand strategy of QOL? Dead and gone it seems. Not a word anymore of this alleged cornerstone of the New Nintendo. It was, again, just talk, apparently. And unlike Amiboo they didn't even bother delivering anything at all here so far because it was just for the investors briefing.
Now that the sales numbers on WiiU are hopelessly below even the drastically revised target of last year, I wonder what the next, "I can't say much about it now because it's so great everybody would rip us off, but we are going to totally turn things on their head, blablabla" is going to be this spring.
@andywitmyer I think you're the 3rd person to ask me that in this thread. Must have been a popular thread. No, it isn't intentional, my typing is so poor it would be impossible for me to type it incorrectly all the time, there is just something about that combination of letters that my fingers don't like. And for whatever reason, my auto-correct just wont' fix it, it either wants it to be "Nitrated" or "Tinned" and as bad as my typing is I'd rather have whatever I type than Nitrated or Tinned, b/c I'm not sure those are even real words.
@rjejr
Can we get a like button on our comments? I guess I'll just say I want more time to discuss things on here with a couple conversations hanging that I'll probably not get to and then this provacative article... too much to do in the upcoming week.
Anyway, I read your comments and they were solid so I'm less likely to go wall-of-text here! So, here. Take two imaginary likes to paste on your comments.
@LavaTwilight ha ha ha, I'm just saying if you believe Nintendo will make a comeback in the stock market (if you believe), you want to buy stock when it's at an all time low, right? It's a huge gamble, but you'll make the most money that way if the winds blow in your favor!
@Grumblevolcano Especially when investors only care about money and not a company's well-being or gamers who play video games. They basically tend to be leaches who attach themselves to whatever will make them the most money and then move on, much like the aliens in Independence Day.
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