Japanese Analyst Claims NX Could Launch As Early As October, Will Eat Into Wii U And 3DS Sales

whatever, i'm still getting it

i grew up with Nintendo and it would just feel strange to NOT own the latest Nintendo system

E3 is too late for a full system reveal if its releasing this year, to me if this ends up true its launch will be like the Wii U (weak launch title quantity).

@FullbringIchigo Same here, I've never missed a launch day Nintendo console (bar the Virtual Boy but I bought that at a later date) and I won't start now. I'm praying that this will be the lift they need and that the NX can bring back the Nintendo domination from the SNES days.

Come on Nintendo, you've ruled a number of console generations before, you can do it again!

I still don't see it launching this year - Nov 2017 is still my bet going from previous launches (home consoles that is). They will show it this E3 with a few game demos, than do a full focus on it at E3 2017 with lots of ready games to show off. I'll be very surprise if it is launched 2016 but I won't be disappointed. Still have plenty of games still to get through.

I am just so excited for a new Nintendo console. Now let's hope we get a bunch of new and unique games and not just the same cycle of games. I feel the Wii U's short lifespan has implications on peoples need and want for games like Mario Kart, Smash, Zelda etc. As they have recently been released and updated.

@Damo I totally agree. The Wii U is dying fast. They need to breathe new life into their company! I reckon we will have a new Nintendo Console for Christmas!

@Damo Yeah, there's a risk of public anticipation cooling between a E3 2016 reveal and a late 2017 release, especially depending on what Sony and Microsoft do in the meantime.

The main thing is that Nintendo need to have a decent launch line-up and titles in the pipeline. There's always going to be droughts no matter how much they try and say there won't be this time.

oh i'm also hoping that the NX will be fully Backwards Compatible with all Wii U games and accessories

Im confused where the release of october-november this year comes from. The quote from the analyst says that they expect the console to release in 17/3, i.e March 2017.

What if Nintendo have been secretly working on a plethora of launch titles for NX and reveal it at e3? Like some remixes, remakes, remasters, and sequels. Maybe they launch it with a surprising new EPIC entry of Kid Icarus?? Maybe they finally bring mario galaxy3, and a new metroid, or maybe zelda and starfox for Wii U get an NX rollover? maybe they hit us with an F Zero while they're at it, just for good measure. What if the NX only has like 10 official titles at launch, but they are really GOOD titles. I mean, we all should remember that the n64 had less than one fourth the amount of launch titles as Wii U, and it did pretty good. I know I sound like a broken record when I say this but I honestly wish that the NX is as impactful / successful as the SNES was, and I am looking forward to it with a very positive mind

Really they should be following Sony/MS with how they announced PS4/XO; press conference February/March focusing on the system and it's features (perhaps this is what they will do when they confirm the 'concept') with a couple of tech demos and perhaps a big game announcement (probably Zelda launch title), with a promise of E3 being entirely game-orientated with plenty of new announcements in store.

This seemed to work quite well with MS and Sony (more so Sony) so I hope Nintendo follow suit. Build up a nice bit of buzz throughout the year and get people talking. Laying their cards on the table would - assuming they are holding a decent hand - also help with investor confidence and further investment.

@Damo I think you are very right with that statement there.

2016 feels like it could be the year nintendo presses the big "company reset button" and pops out very different from what we know it to be.

@Grumblevolcano that used to be the case. Nowadays, it's incredibly hard to keep attention and hype at adequate levels for a long period of time. A shorter timespan between showoff and getting it in consumers hands would benefit it. Nintendo hints as much, with them stating they'll now focus on what you can buy soon, instead of years down the line, within their media presence.

Ummm... this is a very tough one. In general, it makes sense, as the Wii U is rapidly proving for Nintendo to be not reliable for steady income, and while the 3DS is currently doing pretty well with a promising 2016 lineup on the near future, it won't be reliable for them in 2017 at all, so I expect Nintendo to let go of the 3DS this upcoming E3, where they are gonna announce the last exclusive 1st party games as a final bang before moving on.

Star Fox Zero will be an amazing game no doubt, but it won't be a console seller, that job was already done by super mario maker, splatoon, super sm4sh U and MK8, there simply is nothing left to sell the Wii U, except the upcoming Zelda title, but I believe that will be released for both the Wii U and the NX, hence why Twilight Princess HD is being used simply to appease fans while they do the transition, so an early NX move makes a lot of sense.

@Damo It's a similar situation they had with the Wii where they had that lean year in 2011 with only Skyward Sword to cover them. I see Zelda WiiU covering them is Xmas 2016 with maybe a couple of surprise unannounced titles for 2016-2017 (and entering the mobile market). Nintendo aren't doing too badly - they're not selling the same amount as the other two (doing well in Japan though) but financially wise they're ok.

@Judgedean I also always thought November 2017 makes sense. It seems like NX dev kits are too recent to get any third part AAA launch titles before then.

@Yobreeze I'm pretty sure thats him referencing the financial year as in the NX would release from april 2016 to march 2017. Its also why he says it won't boost profits until 18/3 when it will be on sale for a full year which would be april 2017 to march 2018.
Kinda weird way of saying things but I suppose his comments are aimed for investors instead of gaming websites.

@NaturalGus I agree on some level with you. I don't think the NX launch will be as majestic as you think it will be, but I believe that nintendo has been secretly working on NX games for months now, hence the lackluster recent titles COUGH ac: amiibo festival, mario tennis ultra smash COUGH to put all their 100% on this new console that will have at least 3 or 4 impressive 1st party titles all ready on launch day.

@NaturalGus Nintendo only has a handful of dev teams and it seems third party devs have only recently gotten dev kits.

@Damo @FlashmanHarry Thank you for the clarification

How is nx not positioned to be a successor to either console? It must be, surely.

This means absolutely nothing. We all expect to see the NX this year. And it is a replacement for the Wii U, why else would Nintendo be neglecting the Wii U? Also how long can they dangle the new Zelda game at Wii U owners? Zelda will be a duel release?

@MadAdam81 Agree - it takes 2+ years to develop decent games. Launching this year smacks of Sega Saturn happening all over again. If I had to put money on it, I'll still say 2017 (shame NL doesn't have a betting option available).

I think this will be pretty spot on, especially with the leaks coming out of Foxconn (along with the suicides) and other sources. Not to mention the fact that Nintendo's end of year schedule is looking suspiciously empty.

Also, the old tried fashion of taking more than a year of build-up doesn't really work anymore. If you announce it when it's fully ready and tell everyone it'll be ready before the end of the year - that is how you can get maximum interest. But that is assuming the console has a clear identity, new IPs as well as old ones and can compete with other systems in terms of power and functionality.

@Damo My thinking is more along the lines of the system itself being focused too much at E3 if full reveal then instead of the actual games. What I'd hope from a console announce same year as release situation would be something like the XB1 reveal (get the boring stuff out of the way at the initial reveal and then focus on the actual games at E3) but with the actual initial reveal being good.

@erv I wasn't meaning traditional Nintendo console reveal (announce E3, release holiday of the following year) but rather doing something along the lines of Microsoft/Sony timings for XB1/PS4.

@Grumblevolcano Assuming the first dev kits were actually distributed around October/November, yeah, we're looking at a very poor launch line-up if we're getting a new home console this year. The Wii U's dev kits were released a year and a half before its launch, and we all know how poor its launch was. Distributing the dev kits a year before launch and I think we're looking at a launch line-up that could be even worse.

If Nintendo briefed that analyst under NDA then I can see the end of those briefings in future. However, most firms don't realise that briefings aren't automatically under NDA.

Wasn't it said on this sight last year, that the next Mario adventure game would be on their next console? If that's the truth, then they're probably just about done with the game and ready for a launch on their next console. It also makes you wonder (with the fact that there's not a lot coming to the Wii U or even really the 3DS this year), that they've been working on games for their next console. Hopefully they start to show it off, they have the hype train rolling right now (the internet is flooded with NX related stories), and if they keep it going until the launch, they could have a fast-selling console again. If they end up waiting too long, the hype dies down. They just need the launch library to be good and showcase the games that are coming to it (not just indie downloads and/or the same IP's) but something new. I'm actually excited for the system, as I haven't really been excited upon hearing about the Wii U (like the console, but never got too excited for it). Nintendo needs to get back into the competition...I've owned all of their systems since day one (Still love my Gamecube and NES), and I don't want to see them with another failure.

I don't think I really care when it's released. The real questions are what's the gimmick? How powerful? How much? Disc, cartridge, or download medium? A follow on from the way Nintendo have made consoles in the past, or more similar to the XB1/PS4? What will be the release titles?

When is the last worry on my mind.

@Octane It depends on what nintendo themselves have in store for a launch game or games. Other than that, it'll probably be more re-releases that are stale from the other systems from those other companies. The launch for Wii U was of the worst and the 3DS was pretty poor. Don't forget that the N64 only launched with 2-3 games, but it had Super Mario 64 to back it up, and the console sold (not the best, but sold). I think if nintendo themselves have a great game, the system will do fine...it'll depend on what they have in store for the later months. I remember when the PS2 came out, the launch games were horrible (bad sound FX, no sound FX, bad graphics and horrible games), but the system was one of the highest selling systems and the games got better in a few months. Nintendo can do something like that...as long as they advertise the heck out of it.

@MrGawain I think we can pretty much guarantee another disc/download console.
If it is a hybrid system so much more than the Wii U, my guess is that the gamepad would have internal memory and handheld games would be installed from disc.

I wish the Wii U let you install VC games to the gamepad, as there is possibly enough memory in it for one VC title.

@JLPick PS2 and N64 were from a different Era and people nowadays put more stock in the launch title selection than 20 years ago.

Nintendo has always had the ideas on releasing the system first and working out the problems later. The 3DS launched and the store wasn't even available until months later, and the games didn't start pouring out greatly until almost a year later (after the big price drop). N64 launched with only a few games, Super NES with only a few, Wii with about 5 games, Gamecube only had 4 at launch. The thing was, is that they at least had one really good game with it, which made it worth it at the time. I remember myself being really mad at getting the 3DS, but having to play old DS games on it (not what I wanted to do with a new system) and having to wait for the store to become available.

@MadAdam81 3rd parties will probably be doing re-releases...like Batman Arkham Knight or more...just with a little more added and full price (while the other consoles' versions go down in price). I'm sure the next Just Dance, Skylanders, Disney Infinity and Lego will be available on day one, like it's other consoles, but it will be few until months into the system's lifespan.

I think Nintendo, at least, have been preparing for NX for more than 2 years. The Wii U has been a 'failure' since the get go, and they've stuck by it... so they probably already feel like they've avoided a SEGA-like situation.

Remember, they also said they've got a new Pikmin game finished... that'll surely be a NX launch title. Also, didn't Kimishima let slip that there's a Mario Galaxy 'team' at the moment? Why would there exist a team for a game that isn't being made?

I think Nintendo are going to have a fairly good line up of games for launch.

@JLPick Yeah, in 1996. 3 launch games isn't going to work in 2016. 25-30 games is the norm these days. Well, the thing is, Wii U only sold 11-12 million units so far, because it appeals only to Nintendo fans. If only Nintendo will be releasing major games for their new home console, how is that any different from the Wii U? In fact, it's even worse, because third party will be absent during its first year as well. People want the NX to sell, you cannot sell a system with Nintendo games alone anymore. The situation a lot different from 20 years ago.

Even the Xbox One has trouble, despite its third party support. On top of that, releasing the system in the same year as when the PS4 will absolute dominate in terms of software and hardware sales. And assuming the dev kits are only out for a few months, meaning third party will have less time to develop games for the NX than they did for the Wii U. That only spells disaster. I want a succesful console just as much as any other guy on this site, but releasing one, with the current situation, in 2016 isn't going to do them any good.

@Grumblevolcano ah ok. I'm very curious about the way Nintendo is going to handle this one. I guess our friend right now is time

In all seriousness, why wouldn't they release it this year? 3DS and Wii U are fine, but they definitely aren't 'thriving', and unveiling a brand new console wouldn't magically boost interest in either platform, but just the opposite.

They wouldn't be lifting the lid on this thing if it wasn't almost ready to push out the door and when you consider how both platforms have been slowing down lately software-wise, it would seem that most resources are being poured into making games for its launch.

Not saying it won't launch in 2017, but it's certainly plausible that they could actually release this by the end of the year.

I really don't see the purpose of reporting on some prediction an analyst said as there's no hard evidence to base it on. It's nothing but speculation.
As always, I'm going to get the NX day-one whatever it is. Just like it's always been the case with every Nintendo console since the GameCube.

'We had previously thought that the NX launch would have only a limited impact on 3DS and Wii U sales as it is not being positioned as a successor to either console'...

I'm sorry, but for an analyst, that really sounds rather clueless.

@GoldenGamer88 ''I really don't see the purpose of reporting on some prediction an analyst said as there's no hard evidence to base it on. It's nothing but speculation.''

But it sure generates plenty of ad revenue.

@Octane That's true lol ;P

Unless the NX somehow works with the Wii U/shares content I cannot see a launch purchase unless it really wows me. I don't game on the go much so I have little need for a hybrid machine (though I acknowledge that could change if it has that capability) and my Wii U works fine.

A Q1 launch next year building towards a better release catalogue for year-end holiday sales seems more sensible to me than a console with no software at year-end - unless Nintendo is porting the most popular Wii U software over for launch and hoping initial sales will be to people who don't have Wii U?

"Will Eat Into Wii U And 3DS Sales"

What Wii U sales is he talking about?

It was heavily rumoured they shared specs with devs at E3, and got dev kits out before the end of 2015. That's plenty of time for publishers to get NX ports of Q4 PS4 and Xbone games done. They're not going to get many if any 3rd party exclusives at launch no matter how long publishers have had the specs.

They can do what Sony did. They had that early event but didn't show the box off til E3. You can't reveal a console 18 months before launch anymore. It needs to be announced and launched in the same year. No big AAA game has been announced for the Wii U since E3 2014 so I think it's pretty safe to assume all their main teams have been working on NX games for quite a while now.

This will be the first Nintendo system I will not be buying at launch. I just don't trust Nintendo at the moment.

I bought a gaming PC and two Xbox Ones recently, so I am all good. I will wait a year or so before I decide on the NX, especially if it comes out this year.

@electrolite77 By concept between March and May I was picturing Nintendo being very limiting in what they actually talk about (e.g. you won't even know the controller until E3) and then going on about the controller a lot at E3 to hide their very poor launch lineup like with Wii U.

Expect to hear first NX details next month.

i always wait a year or so to buy the new console because that way i can save some mony for it and launch games suck anyway plus the last years of previous console always gets some really good ones.so im not in a hurry but i will get it for sure.if its completly mindblowing i buy when it comes out but i better start working hard:) goddamn bills keep coming

@Peach64 I am sure Nintendo have negotiated at least one exclusive third party AAA title for launch or not long after. The Wii U had a few, such as Zombie U and Lego City Undercover. Zombie U was just thrown together from something they had already been working on, but still changed from being an alien shooting game to a zombie game for the Wii U.

@NaturalGus man, here's hoping...coz that all sounds pretty dope!!!

@FullbringIchigo What he said.

And wow Investors. Nintendo didn't even do anything to warrant that drop. Why are you listening to outside analysts who may or may not know what they're talking about?

Okay, so here's what I think will happen. Before I start, I have as much evidence as the analyst in this article, namely none.

There'll be a diect in March where My Nintendo is the focus, alongside other games, and at the end, they finish off by showing the NX, its capacities and one or two "minor" games (AKA save the big guns for E3).

At E3, we'll get lots of more information, like price, release date and a lot more launch games (probably including a Mario game).

One week before the launch of the system, they'll have a NX Direct where they talk about the console in great detail and about its launch lineup and give a look at what comes in spring for the console. You know, to build up even more hype.

That's at least how I would do it if I had something to say at Nintendo.

I think it would be incredibly wise to reveal the concept 1st before showing it off at e3. Seems like they've learnt from the wii u e3 debut where some didn't understand what it was. You can never assume that your audience has at least a semi functioning brain if their own or the ability to actually pay attention...

As I have said since the beginning, my money is still on a 2017 launch. I think they'll spend 2016 revealing and hyping, and then they'll launch it sometime in 2017 (probably towards the end of the year - November, like usual).

I don't k ow of the NX will launch this year or not but I don't see nintendo cutting it through two E3's as usually. The Wii U's concept was thoroughly ripped off between its 2012 and 2013 showings, seeing as nintendp is keeping quiet due to fears of the others ripping them off it wouldn't make sense to show it off twice before launch

Yeah...I'm sorry, I still don't see it happening this year.

It's sensible, but boring predictions. The analyst's predictions could easily be correct this time, but Nintendo does often do things that's completely unexpected.

I doubt I'll buy the NX at launch, though I'll probably buy it at some point. I only buy a console when there's enough games I'd consider as absolute must haves to justify the price.

October? Really? They showcased the WIP thing a few weeks ago behind closed doors. And you expect games to be ready by October? Come-on.

@Damo "Dev kits are out there already, so it's not like developers don't know about the console already. It's just the press / public which is in the dark ATM."

Oh, but no one has told poor old Pachter that they have a dev kit, so they can't be out yet! Haha ;p

@FRANKLIN_BADGE I had thought this too. We're getting Twilight Princess as an appeasement for when Zelda U is launches on both systems. A good final title for the Wii U and a good launch title for the NX... kinda like how TP did the same for the GameCube and the Wii. Hey... wait...

@zool "We all expect to see the NX this year."

No, not all. Since day 1 there have been about 20% of people saying 2017, and there still are, so this is for them.

What I don't understand is why people think a 2017 launch is too soon after the announcement. The announcement was already made in March 2015, so that will be about 18 months until launch.

https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2015/03/nintendo_working_on_new_dedicated_game_platform_codenamed_nx

And then Reggie says NX at about the 10:40 mark of the E3 NDE basically telling people it is coming in 2016.

http://e3.nintendo.com/videos/#digital-event

And those are facts, straight from the mouths of Ntinedo bigwigs, not rumours or hearsay. But there is also indirect info as well. The Wall Street journal reported on it back in October. That's not some kids basement gaming blog.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/nintendo-begins-distributing-software-kit-for-new-nx-platform-1444996588

So there has plenty of time that we've been hearing about NX. Both in the gaming media and in the general press. There may be reasons for a 2017 release - manufacturing issues, natural disasters, shipping strikes - but lack of awareness is not one of them.

And realistically,the only people who pick up a new console at launch are gamers anyway, not the general public, so those who are likely to pick one up in 2016 already know about it. People who don't know about it yet will have plenty of time from E3 until launch, and they probably still won't pick one up this year, there are only so many "early adopters" in the world.

So, I like the analysis in the comments section here.

I especially like how the need to announce closer to release is being acknowledged. This is a trend that tech industries have been very slowly taking to after Apple, for one, has had great success with it. There are far too many options nowadays to keep a sustained interest in a new product more than a year. I remember with the Wii U that the first reveal felt pretty stunning and interesting and then a year later at E3, Sony and Microsoft were carefully showing how they'll have the "same thing" with tablets and smart phones and then the disaster with EA and third parties came and the whole year-later E3 was problematic... and then the launch was still six months later.

This hardware will be a clean break from the Wii name. (The president sharing this idea means It's going to be a console at least in part! That was a nice official confirmation.) The concept is hopefully a little more direct and easy to understand. Reveal in March, build real excitement at E3. Launch by end of year. Not a bad plan at all.

I will caution on a couple of things. People are using the lack of games for Wii U and 3DS in later half of 2016 as evidence, but Nintendo has been keeping dates and announcements of future games largely secret. This could be just an attempt not to disappoint with more delayed games after announcements have been made after the two high profile delays.

It's maybe better evidence that those two lackluster games were squeaked out for the end of the year. They both just seem undercooked and aimed to be small projects that wouldn't tie-up development teams too much... as they are probably needed to transition over to some bigger upcoming projects.

As for people worried about 3rd parties only getting dev kits recently. One scenario is that the new hardware platform is more in line with what developers are used to. Perhaps standard shader languages are being used and other development tools are familiar and the power of the system is on par or close to XB1 and/or PS4. Nintendo could be banking on a few big third party games in the launch window that is doable because a year is long enough to port.

In addition, this kind of knowledge could have been shared in that E3 timeframe to prepare publishers for the possibility. Deals could have been struck as well. Nintendo has been throwing the cash around lately and that would be money well spent.

It's not all roses, though. Nintendo has been trying to avoid a complete drought of games on its waning systems. Dreams of Metroid and a huge Mario game and Zelda and more all at launch are bound to be shattered. Of course, this is why the notions of Zelda launching on NX are so enticing. That the architecture and development platform may be easier for third parties gets in the way of that theory however as it also means backwards compatibility and porting of a Wii U title wouldn't be easy.

I want to have it all, too, but Nintendo is faced with many harsh realities.

All that being said, I think the Wii U has been on Nintendo's official chopping block for about a year now. Splatoon and Mario Maker gave it new life but it's just too late to have a turn around and Nintendo is probably just happy to be making some money with it while still anxious to give it another go.

I see replacing the 3DS as a much less risky proposition and the benefits of a combined development platform to be tremendous. The sooner that launches the better for Nintendo and its fans.

@rjejr To further your point, the president in his forward looking financial statement for 2016 mentioned NX, the account system and mobile. He didn't even give a nod to Wii U and 3DS. That's a pretty clear message and if 2016 isn't the transition year he is setting up investors for major disatisfaction.

Seriously, how does someone who thinks the Wii U and 3DS will carry Nintendo until end of 2017 account for a statement like that from the highest executive at Nintendo?

@sandman89 "How is nx not positioned to be a successor to either console?"

Because it's a successor to both. And I'm only half joking.

If NX is a successor to both - One console to rule them all - then it really isn't a successor to either, it is a "new" thing. While some tablets can play on TVs, and whatever Nvidia Shield is, for whatever reason there has always been a divide between home and portable consoles.

Look at Sony. They made PS3. Then they made Vita to basically play PS3 games on the go. Then they made PS TV to play Vita games on TV (but not any of the good games b/c PS TV lacks touch controls). Why nto just make Vita w/ TV out?

Nintendo made Gamecube and Gameboy. Then they made the "Gamecube Gameboy Player" to play Gameboy games on the TV. Then they made the DS and 3DS, neither of which have TV out. Then they made Wii U VC which can play some Gameboy games on the TV.

So as obvious as it sounds, if they made one console that played games on the tv and on the go, it wouldn't be the successor to either b/c it would be a new thing. Though I suppose if they made an NXHome and NXDS it would be very much like the PS4 and Vita, so then it wouldn't be new. But that we have to wait and see.

@Octane And they said they don't want to rush it. And if they distribute dev kits to the others one year before, the launch would be rushed. The Wii U launch was ok, but the 3DS one... It was horrible. I bet they made the dev kits as fast as they could and sent them to the devs after that launch so they would have a more decent launch. The problem is that most people who talk about the NX forget about the most important part: the games. If those rumours about the dev kits are true, it should launch in 2017. All these rumours are so confusing, and what bothers me the most is that every rumour 'leaks' the announcement and release date, but never talks about the console itself (they talked only about its power), titles aimed for its release and the unique part of it.

@aaronsullivan "until end of 2017"

That's a really good way of looking at it that I haven't really thought of before.

I understand the "not in 2016" arguments. Wii U will likely have Zelda U for holiday 2016, and you wouldn't want that game to crash and burn. And Wii U still hasn't seen a significant price cut to $199 yet. Or a red Wii U Mini. And they still haven't launched a budget line like Player's Choice or Ntinedo Selects - and Lego City Undercover really needs to be $19.99 by now. And Wii U probably had a decent holiday on the back of SMM and Spaltoon. So there are reasons to keep Wii U around for 2016.

But what could there possibly be to sell Wii U in 2017 while waiting for the NX that wouldn't be better served by moving to NX? And I hope Nintendo learned from it's March 3DS launch that consoles are made to launch during the holidays, not in winter or spring.

Good stuff sir. Of course the 1 big "if" is Nintneods complete and utter lack of rational thinking. They do what they want, when they want, logic is out the window with them. Hence my recent long post about the new President as an "X factor. How will he differ from Iwata? Will Nintnod change? No matter what you, I or anyone else thinks, Nintneod never ceases to surprise.

Serious question for the "Nintendo will hold out until end of 2017 with Wii U and 3DS as its major hardware platforms" crowd:
@NintendoFan64 @SanderEvers @ElkinFencer10 @MadAdam81 @Judgedean @Parkour_LMan

How do you account for the new president's first update to his message for shareholders and investors not even mentioning Wii U and 3DS? He mentions Nintendo IP spread around to theme parks, amiibo, mobile and NX as the dedicated hardware strategy going forward. Why is he using this as his launch statement right before 2016 if he talking about something not coming until the end of 2017?

(Here is the link so you can read it in its entirety: https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2015/12/nintendo_president_tatsumi_kimishima_has_published_a_new_message_for_shareholders_and_investors )

@aaronsullivan
Good point, but he also said a day or two ago, I believe, that development was "progressing" and that Nintendo wasn't going to "rush [the NX] to market." Nintendo almost ALWAYS releases their hardware between August and November, so unless they're going to break that several decade long trend, "not rush to market" means "fall 2017, not fall 2016" to me.

I won't be getting it at launch, but I am really curious to see how it works. If it's replacing both the Wii U and 3DS, then I'll get one eventually.

@rjejr
Right? I wonder sometimes if people are thinking about how Nintendo would be needing two years more of titles. How many multi-million dollar games that the fans demand is Nintendo going to risk developing to sell to (maybe) a 12-million weak user base?

On the other hand, Nintendo seems to keep finding ways to profit and you are right that it can be hard to see the logic in some of Nintendo's decisions. They are fun because surprise but also frustrating. There are cultural differences of course, and I'm sure Nintendo Japan can get a bit miopic. I shudder to think what an increase year over year in Wii U sales that beat PS4 over the holidays might say to them!

@ElkinFencer10 I missed that statement. My first thought is that the feeling that the Wii U is still a valuable investment has to persist for awhile so statements like this are necessary, but I need to see what he said in context.

It's still early January! People are still spending Holiday cash!

@Grumblevolcano na I don't think so. I imagine the a teams have been working on something while the b teams have been making ultra smash and what not. Also remember with the wiiu most of Nintendo had never worked in hd and a lot of the early titles doubled as training

@ElkinFencer10 well what does rush me to you and what does rush mean to him. Are they the same?

@faint
Neither you nor I can know precisely; that's the point of speculation.

@rjejr
Nintendo doesn't care about selling Wii Us anymore. There won't be any large price changes or special editions. There certainly won't be a players choice line. Their only goal with Wii U is to stay profitable and bridge to the NX now.

Suffice to say I don't know much about the NX, but if there is no gamepad and it's a budget console it could come at the $250-300 price point. Hexk you could buy an xbone for $250 this holiday season so that should be a target price for the NX. Based on the current economics of the Wii U it can't be a budget alternative to the NX.

Nov 2017 is still my guess ☺

@Parkour_LMan: Indeed, that why I am and will remain skeptic about the entire idea. Rumours based on rumours, based on rumours, that's all we have at the moment. Then again, they could release a home console this year, but I expect it to flop commercially worse than the Wii U if that's the case. I've said it before and I'll say it again; I want their next home console to be succesful, with all the third parties and such, but that's not going to happen if this system comes out this year. Releasing a new home console isn't going to bring back a large userbase either. They effectively start at zero again. Home consoles aren't their priority anymore (or shouldn't be at least). It's why Sony doesn't bother too much with the Vita and it's the reason why the GameCube had a lifespan two years longer than the GBA, despite selling a lot less units. The 3DS is winding down pretty fast, whilst the Wii U sales have remained stable over the last years; The 3DS is also 5 years old by the end of this year, so I expect a new handheld sooner than later as well. We'll see soon enough I think.

@aaronsullivan: Do you expect Nintendo theme parks this year? I don't think so, he was obviously talking about a long term strategy. Nevertheless, he NX could release this year, I'm just not expecting a home console. 3DS is getting old too..

@Damo You should make an article on how nintendo tries their concepts with their current technology to fully implement it on the next generation. The motion controls with the game boy advance, the dual screen for consoles with the gamecube/gameboy advance, the portable used as a controller for smash bros wii u, its all there... the evidence i mean..

@cleveland124 "Based on the current economics of the Wii U it can't be a budget alternative to the NX."

Well one way to make a budget Wii U happen would be to sell the Gamepad separatly. Which they could do if NX is a Wii U 2 w/o the Gamepad and they sell the Gamepad separtly. Also since Nintneod still sells the Wii Mini for $99, and Sony sells the PS3 for $199, it's possible Wii U could go for $199 even with the Gamepad if NX is a $400 monster of a console that has a portable Gamepad along w/ the home console.

And it would make sense for a budget line of Wii U games if the NX is backwards compatible and can play Wii U games, this way there will be games to play to launch for all the people who passed on Wii U. And lots of people passed on Wii U with only 11 million sold.

But we don't know what NX is. But I wouldn't rule anything out until we know more. And then I still wouldnt rule anything out b/c you just never know with Ntineod, they make some really head scratching decisions on a regular basis.

But if I had to choose a side, Wii U will continue alongside NX at a lower price and there will be a budget Wii U line announced in Feb or March.

People wanting it to be released in November 2017 don´t realize they have nothing to survive with for this two whole years except for Zelda... theres no point in investing in games for a console that didnt sold well at all, especially to release it just before the new one will be revealed.. most normal people that have a wii u wont buy games as soon as the NX is revealed, we have to look outside the fanbase.. we are a lot but not enough..

@rjejr I dunno why people is stuck with the idea that the gamepad is THAT expensive, it is not. It has really out dated technology, even the battery is mediocre, Nintendo systems are not expensive to make, the thing is that them as a company have a phylosophy of making a lot of profit in every unit they sell.. thats what the investors expect I guess..

I'm certainly curious about the NX, whenever it comes out, this year or next, but I can't say I'm excited for it. Besides not truly knowing what it is or how it will work (we all have some ideas but no one knows for sure) Nintendo just hasn't been doing it for me lately. Not just in the last few years but in the last decade. Growing up Nintendo was my life - with the NES, SNES, N64 and GameCube. But then with the Wii it all changed. They catered to casual gamers, tried to be experimental with their unnecessary motion controlled remote which hindered the gaming experience for me. PS3 satisfied my gaming needs last generation but Wii certainly didn't. In fact, if I got rid of my Wii I wouldn't even miss it. And with Wii U it looked like it was going to return to the glory days at launch but fell short very fast. There are some really excellent games for the system but there's just not enough. And I'm tired of buying two consoles and a handheld every generation if I want to experience all (or most) of the best games each generation. I can't play both the newest Elder Scrolls or Final Fantasy AND Legend of Zelda or Mario games if I only buy one console. I have to buy two and a handheld. The Wii U has not only been underperforming in sales, it is easily my least favorite console I've ever owned. For one, I hate the gamepad, not because it's bulky and because of the touch screen but because it's unnecessary and needs to be charged every 2 or 3 hours, so basically I stay plugged into the wall as I play. Wii U has literally zero third party support. They really underestimate the value of third party games. And while I enjoy the 3DS I really don't think I'd miss it if I sold it off. The games I've played for it were fun but ultimately forgettable. I feel like Nintendo has been focusing too much on gimmicks and throwaway games just to make a sale rather than modern classics that will be played over and over again for years to come. The way I see it, NX will be no different.

So I'm definitely curious about the NX because who knows it could impress me. But it would take a lot of effort on their part. With the clear fact that Nintendo has given up on Wii U (and 3DS to a lesser extent) it's in their best interest to get the NX out sooner than later. It won't matter to me if NX launches this year or next year because I already feel burned by their lack of support for the Wii U.

As much as I'd love the big N to suddenly say hey look guys we've got all these top games (F-zero, waverace, a dual Zelda release etc) ready for a new home console launch this year it ain't gonna happen. Although a big part of me wants to be wrong on that. I'm in the 'if Nintendo release any new hardware this year it will be some handheld NX device' camp. I'd easily buy Pikmin 4 on a handheld NX. They could grow an install base then next Xmas release the home console base unit thingy that does some extra Nintendo magic that we poor mortals can't even begin to imagine... Or at least something that's not too gimmicky plus a lot of finished quality games. What d'ya guys think?

@aaronsullivan "I shudder to think what an increase year of year in Wii U sales that beat PS4 over the holidays might say to them!"

Hopefully it says - "1 week blip" - as that's all it was. ~40% DROP week over week.

New 3DS LL – 73,778 (107,374)
PlayStation 4 – 65,427 (53,023)
PlayStation Vita – 63,811 (73,163)
Wii U – 53,547 (92,801)

Japan seems like a well educated lot, they'll be waiting for NX from this point on. Though I do expect a nice uptick for Pokken Tournament. Maybe Starfox. Not TP HD though. And Zelda U will be too late. Considering Japan's fascination with mobile if it is a TV out hybrid it should do just fine there. I wonder if Gamefreak is silent on the "We all know it's coming" Pokemon Z b/c its on NX? And we all know it's coming, though my kid is hoping they just skip it for Gen 7. MHX can sell some hardware as well.

Software sales
[3DS] Monster Hunter X (Capcom, 11/27/15) – 130,063 (2,521,859)
[3DS] Monster Strike (Mixi, 12/17/15) – 91,572 (699,436)
[Wii U] Splatoon (Nintendo, 05/28/15) – 60,447 (1,153,989)
[Wii U] Super Mario Maker (Nintendo, 09/10/15) – 52,753 (726,885)
[3DS] Yo-kai Watch Busters: Red Cat Team / White Dog Squad (Level-5, 07/11/15) – 49,533 (2,124,427)

Thats the top 5. How good would a system sell that had all 5? Let'er rip tater chip.

@rjejr

I guess I'm skeptical NX will be backward compatible. I think they are really trying to redesign their OS which will make BC harder and most makers are skeptical of the sales benefit anyway.

I think the Wii U is destined to end in the 13-15 million range and I don't see Nintendo pushing it hard to get over that range. I don't believe there is any significant manufacturing of the Wii U going on now and I think they'd prefer to keep thier margins higher on the remaining units than to sell maybe a million more units at a break even price.

It's possible that the NX is a beast and will be expensive but that would be a big shift for Nintendo and really unexpected. Some leaks are pointing to sub PS4 power which to me looks like they are trying to undercut competitors and is consistent with their recent strategies.

Once the NX comes out selling that will become priority #1. The reason you sell a budget console is to pick up gamers that won't spend the money on your new product. I think the Wii U would have to be in the $100, maybe $150 range to be a budget console and I just don't see that happening. At $199 I think it's a direct competitor to the NX. Plus it isn't popular and is regarded as a financial failure unlike the Wii. So I think they will bury it the first chance they get.

@FreakFerrett "It has really out dated technology"

And some of it they never even really used. TVii button? Video camera? I'd like to see a poll about how many people use video chat b/c very few games use it.

If they made it into a portable 4DS it could go for $200 though. And the base another $200. So that's $400 for NX.

But I am hoping if the new Nintneod President is serious about making a go of NX he' swilling to sell it at a loss to be comptetive. Xbox One and PS4 will be $249 by Nov 2016. Another reason NX can't wait until holiday 2017, they will be $199 by then and people will be talking about PS5 with 4k resolution. Sony like to bring the hype early and often. In late 2017 Sony would make NX DOA with lower PS4 prices and PS5 promises. 2016 it has a chance

I really hope for backwards compatibility with the Wii U (although I see that that as being highly unlikely) as I've still to get that console and it'd be a shame for games like Bayonetta 2, Super Mario Maker, Splatoon, Mario Kart 8 etc to be forgotten about.

@cleveland124 "I guess I'm skeptical NX will be backward compatible.

That is a very big "if" isn't it? If it's built on PC architecture like the other 2 then it can't be, but that's the only way to get 3rd party support, so there's the trade-off. Unless it's BC with the 3DS, and NX is more in line with a handheld, thus being less powerful than PS4 but maybe powerful enough for Nintneod games.

Though if it isn't BC with Wii U games then they might as well drop the price of existing stock to sell it while they can. And I agree, if they sop making Wii U, as they probably should, and there is no BC, then no budget line makes sense. But this is Ntineod and they almost never make sense. Which is why its really hard to predict what they'll do next.

It will be fun though, watching everybody be wrong yet so many people will be saying "that's exactly what I said they will do".

Does anyone know how much input Iwata might have had with this new console?? I hope he was involved heavily in the decision making leading up to his untimely death. It's still hard to know what Nintendo's new president has planned, can he live up to Iwata's legacy?

@rjejr I totally agree with you. They must march at the rythem of their own drum to succeed. Sony is mostly making hype, not games.
The TV functionality was never really used, it is already shut down. The camera was never used in first party games, not that I remember. The only one I have that takes your picture is Tank!Tank!Tank! and its third party. What Im worried about is that they do with NX what they did with the Wii U, release a half baked console, with updates on the first months to add the functionalities that should be out of the box. That is not good at all for early adopters. I never get a console unless there are at least 15 games out that I really wanna play, but I can see hwo this things hurt a console at launch, specially with reviews, considering how important reviews are for the gaming community.

@FreakFerrett "with updates on the first months to add the functionalities that should be out of the box."

That's just the way it is now though. Xbox One getting backwards compatibility after a year or so. PS4 sitll doesn't have folders on it's menus. And some other stuff that PS3 had. It's all about getting things out the door these days, companies getting peopels money, and then fixing things later. It's like hardware DLC.

What Nintnod needs to be really good at though is explaining and hyping and coming out with the killer game app. Wii Sports was killer, Nintendo Land was not. "asymmetric gameplay" is not a marketable slogan.

http://www.1up.com/features/what-the-hell-is-asymmetric-gameplay

And it shouldn't look like a Wii, or a Wii U. Enough with the white already, make it red or black.

But what is and isn't ready at launch doesn't matter as much as Nintndo spending money on advertising and having a really great game to market and NX having a reasonable price. But Nitneod really needs to market the thing.

3DS is 5 years old at this point and it's not weird for it to get replaced by a successor. Especially more so because it used relatively obsolete tech in terms of mobile at launch with a crazy high price tag (price is still ridiculously high now considering what's in it, but they're finally able to get away with selling ancient tech for high prices), which would've been fine in the DS days when no one was gaming or had decent alternative mobile devices. However that just doesn't really fly nowadays, seeing as how dev support is already dwindling. Compare that to Vita, which has a HUGE JP release schedule and potentially has the PSP's long lifespan ahead of it in terms of dev support (even if sales aren't so good).
Wii U was dead out of the gate and while it's starting to see better sales in Japan, it's already time for it to go. Which is sadly too soon. Only 4 years before getting replaced marks it as the failure that it is and even with a high price and old tech like the 3DS, I think it deserved 5 years.

Sigh, for handheld I wish Nintendo would go back to the GBA days in terms of console design. Give us something relatively affordable, reasonably powerful, and with great value that's designed to include the newest, standardized advances in gaming instead of shoving in short term gimmicks that go mostly unused and serve only to jack up the price of the device to ridiculous levels. Basically give us what Sony has been giving us this past decade IN YOUR PLACE (without the stupid proprietary memory cards), especially since Sony will mostly likely no longer make portables.

Unless Nintendo has a stellar lineup of games ready to go for launch this year, I don't see much point in trying to compete with the established success of XB1 and PS4. Better to wait until early 2017 in my opinion and get a jump on the next round.

@AVahne Right on the money.

@AVahne
You know that every Nintendo handheld had dated hardware the day it launched with the competition blowing it out of the water.

Every Nintendo console was dated at launch with the exception of Nintendo 64.
I mean Xbox was easily more powerful than Gamecube at launch, with PCs passing both in a few months.

Every Nintendo system to date has featured what people have called "gimmicks" on the controllers with the competition making them industry standard in the next gen.

@Li_Bae
You know every Playstation console has launched with mediocre games only to become the dominant system within six months out (PS3 is the exception).

PS4 proved you can have just multiplats and easily sell 36M in ~2 years, including a mediocre launch selection.

Wii U, Wii, Dreamcast (West), Gamecube, SNES had the best launch software of their gen.

Hell Wii U had 23 games from practically every genre with most being decent 3rd party games.

@Xenocity
There's a difference between weaker and vastly outdated. Xbox was strongest of its gen, but the Gamecube was still very respectable against it and is considered the second most powerful of the 6th generation, beating out PS2 and Dreamcast when it comes to graphics. Every generation before, Nintendo has always had respectable amounts of power for the time and were considered some of the best. Your point can be considered for the original Game Boy and GBC, but GBA saw a change in that Nintendo had really respectable graphics power for a handheld. Their main competitors were the SwanCrystal and NGage. Maybe the Tapwave Zodiac as well. AFAIK GBA is more powerful than SwanCrystal. NGage might be more powerful than GBA, but barely so as the majority of its 3D games had horrid framerates and the ones that do run well don't look much better than a 3D GBA game. The Tapwave Zodiac is more powerful but it also came out a couple years later and had a way higher price since it doubles as a premium PDA for businessmen.
So aside from the original GB AND GBC, Nintendo has always made relatively powerful and well designed hardware prior to last gen. The gap between them and their most powerful competition was never as huge of a gap as the ones between the DS-PSP, Wii-PS360, 3DS-Vita, and WiiU-other 8th gen consoles.
And heck, even the GB and GBC were able to easily one up their competition by a massive margin in terms of battery life, which they can't even do nowadays.

So this is what pass as news nowadays? guessing and conjectures?

@KingofSaiyans Tell It to my Vita, I love it totally, the only console I bought games for lately besides the Wii U...

And considering that first party games for ps4 they released about 8 (I dont count remakes, hd versions etc as they are available in other systems) I feel free to say that they are selling more hype that games.. I love Sony really, but thats the impression I get from dropping the Vita and announcing games that are 20% -40% in development...

@rjejr 2016 is launch year. Otherwise there would be a few more Wii U games lined up for this year. Even Twilight Princess had to be rushed to fill the Zelda gap and keep gamers happy until the NX and the new Zelda arrive towards the end of the year.

Ok some disaster could happen and the launch has to be postponed but that is not the same as saying the launch will be 2017.

@zool

Tell that to the Wii 2 year drought prior to the Wii U. Simply being in a drought doesn't mean there's a rish of games in the pipeline.

No rush for me. I'm enjoying my wii u now more than ever. We picked up Splatoon, Yoshi's wooly world and captain toad over the holidays and my family and I are loving them. Not to mention I still haven't played bayonetta or xeno x. The wii u may not have as many games coming as the leading consoles but it has games with tons of replay value that are pure jems.

@AVahne
That's not true either.

Sega Master System, Amiga, and a few others blasted NES out of the park in terms of CPU power and RAM.

Genesis had 2x the CPU of SNES
Turbo Graphic 16 blasted SNES completely out of the water.
3DO and NeoGeo were 1 gen ahead of SNES in power but highly expensive

Nintendo 64 was the only time Nintendo blew the competition out of the water in consoles.

Gamecube on paper had much lower raw spec sheet than PS2 and Xbox earning it the nickname as N64+ in the gaming media.

Wii purposely was made as the last SD console, while Microsoft lost $4 Billion plus on Xbox 360 and Sony lost over $6 Billion on PS3 nearly bankrupting the company.

Wii U was still bound by the contract with IBM signed in 1999 for multigenerational processor development.

NX isn't bound by the IBM contract.

As for handhelds:

GB was vastly weaker than Atari and Sega's handhelds but outsold them.
GBC was weaker, but was more successful than Nintendo expected.

N-Gage was vastly more powerful than GBA, but the power was used for it's full OS, multimedia functionality and phone part.
GBA wasn't a weakling, but it wasn't top of the line either.

Sony took a huge loss on PSP hardware for the 3 years in order to sell it at $250.
Sony only made marginal profits in the end on PSP.

Nintendo broke even selling DS for the first 6 months, then made huge profits.

Sony was able to price Vita so low, because they used the parts in Vita for their phones and other electronics. Though memory cards prices and lack of interest from Sony's Western branches killed it.

The Point being: Nintendo consoles are traditionally weaker than the competitions more so since Microsoft can easily eat the loss on hardware and Sony can get cheap prices because they use most of the parts in their other divisions.

Nintendo cannot compete financially against the massive size of Microsoft and Sony.

@rjejr I thought the same thing as you (that you can't have 3rd party support AND BC), but since Microsoft introduced BC for Xbox One it looks very much as if it's possible to have an x86 NX (for 3rd party support) with BC. Xbox 360 was a PPC architecture as well and Microsoft managed to pull off BC on the One, which is an x86 system.
Maybe they even manage to get some patent deal with Microsoft to pull this off. They're already working together (Minecraft).

The only way I will even consider an upgrade is if the console is digitally backwards compatible and let's me move my games to the new console.

These are an analyst's predictions. They don't mean squat.

@Spakiness
That will probably happen for VC and small eShop titles.

Though Sony didn't allow it with PS4 for any games, forcing you to rebuy them all.

Why you guys have to rip on the Gamecube? It's very different architechure than the Xbox which makes it tough to compare. I've read articles that give a pretty convincing argument that Gamecube is more powerful. People get too tied up into numbers. It would be like me arguing my 3.6 ghz p4 is better than a 3.2 ghz i7.

The proof is in the pudding for me. The best graphical games on the Gamecube matched the best on the Xbox. Where Xbox has an advantage was the architecture was easier to use and they were handing out lots of moneyhats back then. So almost all 3rd party games turned out better on Xbox.

@rjejr They learnt the hard way with the Wii U, if they dont fix everything with the NX they are really dumb, no other explanation. But we really can´t blame them, they tried to do everything that worked for the Wii on the Wii U. I would do the same I guess considering how much they sold.
Also agree with you, the Wii was advertised mostly through the people, when they invested on advertising for the wii u it was too late. If you think Nintendo Land wasn´t a good launch game and "killer app", can you imagine Game and Wario instead, that was their original plan, at least they swiched to a game with acceptable graphics, something most people where expecting from the Wii U after what we got with the Gamecube 1.5 ermm.. Wii.

@aaronsullivan In reply to your "serious question," it may be true that nothing of the Wii U/3DS was mentioned, but then the NX wasn't mentioned, too. In fact, Kimishima was merely commenting on what the future might hold for Nintendo. That includes the theme attractions, use and development of IP, and, yes, even amiibo. The only major (and mentioned) thing linking Nintendo's video game business is the My Nintendo account, which "which should work as a bridge between our dedicated video game platforms and other devices ..." (more evidence towards an hybrid, methinks). Of course, shareholders and whatnot always want to know where their money is going in the long run, so Nintendo is going to talk about the future. But then, he didn't say anything about the NX. Doesn't really mean anything about the Wii U/3DS unless we want to start assuming things, if you ask me.
I'm also seeing myself in the "NX - 2017, hybrid" camp. I'm not really going into details as to why as I've mentioned it so many times, but I don't get why some people in the other camp (NX - 2016, home console, or something similar) just start to freak out when they hear a "NX is releasing in 2017" speculation/opinion. We're all Nintendo fans and we're excited to see what Nintendo has under their sleeves, so there's really no need to attack others based on opinion.

@aaronsullivan

" I shudder to think what an increase year over year in Wii U sales that beat PS4 over the holidays might say to them!"

You should really look at the global sales. The PS4 was almost 4 times the sales of the Wii U over Christmas week....

I'm guessing the release date being 2016 could easily be explained by the type of console NX turns out to be. I'm expecting that porting to it will be significantly easier than for the Wii U, so launch titles could easily be ports. With the Account coming, I'm wondering if it's not something like the Shield, but with a Nintendo twist, of course (hybrid, streamed games)

I make the same point every time when this discussion comes up but I can't in anyway see Nintendo waiting till 2017 to release the NX. Peoples only evidence is that it correlates with prior release cycles. There are almost no games slated for the Wii U this year. I count 6. Marvel Avengers, 2 Zeldas, Pokken, Star Fox and Fire Emblem Cross. It is unlikely Nintendo will release anything else in the next 6 months outside of these titles. Third parties are finished until next Christmas when we get the usual multi-platform games. When you consider fire emblem x is finished in Japan, Pokken is an Arcade Port, Twilight Princess is a remaster and Zelda, Avengers and Star Fox are all delays from last year, then Nintendo currently has ZERO original games in development for the system (that we know off)...Ok that is a bit far fetched, but you can see what I mean. The idea of this trend lasting another 18 months is impossible to me. Nintendo will do well to release this year. Something to run up against Sony and MIcrosoft/facebooks VR sets.

Premise: I'm an analyst.

I predict that the end of the world will happen in October.

Conclusion: Since I'm an analyst, the end of the world will definitely happen in October.

If the launch is late 2016 then it makes most of the rumors about NX true

@rjejr In response to #74, the difference is an NX Console and an NX Handheld would be two form factors of the same platform. PS4 and Vita are two separate platforms all together. That's what makes NX new.

Have the NX Handheld and NX Console use the same architecture (ARM most likely), the same services, the same OS, and of course most of the same games.

For launch period, it will be BOTH 2016 and 2017. Have the NX Console launch in the west and the NX Handheld in Japan in October/November 2016. Then, in Spring 2017, have the NX Handheld launch in the west and (maybe) the NX Console in Japan.

One advantage of having the NX Handheld and NX Console being under the same platform is Nintendo can list sales as "NX sold __ million units", allowing them to cover up sales when the NX Console inevitably struggles

@Damo It is a rumor that the development kits have been released. Also, the 3DS family has increased sales this year, thanks to the new 3DS. The analyst was dead wrong. I think Nintendo launched the New 3DS just so they could rely on it for a few months until 2017. Why else would they release it?

@ikki5 Right. My point is I shudder to think what Nintendo makes of that success in Japan. Do the higher ups weigh that higher because it's in Japan? I wonder sometimes.

@amiiboacid The 3DS is WAY down on 2014's figures, even with the extra models. And 2014 was WAY down on 2013's figures.

@cleveland124 what else does it mean then? Nintendo have decided not to make games for this year, just rely on the income from Amiibo's?

@shani if you think that, then I guess you would believe it to be true

@aaronsullivan They attribute it to Splatoon being a hit there most likely. They know damn well that home consoles are borderline dead in Japan.

I'm curious, is this an actual rumor or just an industry analyst saying their opinions?

@epicmartin7 Analyst saying his opinions.

@zool

They are still making games, but I don't expect them to flood the market with games. I think they'd like to make 6 games a year and have you buy those. They basically use the only AAA game strategy for consoles.

They said themselves they won't bring Fire Emblem to consoles because it would need to sell 750,000 copies. We don't have a new Metroid because Metroid's never been a top seller for them. We don't have a new F-Zero because it focuses on a niche market. They won't focus on VC because they think you should buy their new games.

Sure they may not have said all those things but they know people want those and they haven't delivered them. I think the Wii U is what you get when there are no 3rd parties. Nintendo is never going to try to fill the 3rd party gap. They just want to create something as engaging as Wii Sports so people will buy their product anyways.

@zool

Alright.....time to fire up the old controversy wagon...
It's coming this year, no doubt in my mind. Anyone who thinks otherwise should remember that Nintendo aren't your friend, they don't give a damn about you or the false promises of a 5 year Wii U life cycle you expect in your imagination. They just want what's in your wallet. Like any business.
As for games....It wouldn't surprise me if Reggie came out & said something like "Nintendo fans have been eagerly awaiting footage of the first NX titles.....yet you've been looking at one the whole time......" points to the new Zelda game. Which imo has looked waaaay too good for a Wii U game since the first trailer (sloppy game awards footage aside)

@Vee_Flames Certainly not my intention to attack anyone.
You must have read a different statement than me, though, if you are saying he didn't mention NX.
"For our dedicated video game platform business, Nintendo is currently developing a gaming platform codenamed "NX" with a brand-new concept and our unique software-led hardware-software integrated business will continue to constitute the core business for Nintendo."
I hope you aren't including me in the camp that is freaking out and attacking anyone. I'm just curious what scenario is being imagined by those who are thinking 2017 in case I've missed something.

@Octane I do expect Universal to develop additions to its theme parks with Nintendo. It was in May when it was announced and even if we don't get a whole section of the park with complete rides, I think you'll see some parts of it come together in 2016, yes.

Typically, company leaders don't give forward statements that cover long stretches of time with any detail. You don't want to give too much fuel for shareholder panic as the markets and intentions necessarily change. I mean this is pretty general stuff, but still...

Would I be mentioning the new hardware in the statement and neglect to mention the strength of the current hardware now if I was planning on waiting until late 2017 to release it?

@aaronsullivan Oh, so he did mention the NX (must have missed that sentence), but I'd argue that strengthens my point about Kimishima talking the future, so he does have to talk about NX, especially to investors. When I didn't see the NX myself, I was kinda surprised... so thanks for clarifying that.
And I should have made myself clearer regarding the 2016 camp. You definitely bring up good points (I still stand by my opinion, though), but believe me, there are some people out there (heck, even on this very site) who I'm starting to believe think they're in some war with the people of the 2017 camp and just want to start unnecessary arguments. I guess the tone of your comments just reminded me of that and I just decided to say my mind, so I apologize if looks like I'm accusing you of attacking and if there's any misunderstanding. One more thing, though...

"Would I be mentioning the new hardware in the statement and neglect to mention the strength of the current hardware now if I was planning on waiting until late 2017 to release it?"
But then you're assuming it automatically means a home console is arriving this year (all speculation, but still). Besides, the fact that he didn't also mention the 3DS means... that it's still a home console? I don't know about that line of thought. But I'll still say it again, maybe it's weird that he didn't mention the 3DS and Wii U, but I'm not seeing the hard evidence that it's a home console.
I'm more of the thought that the NX is a hybrid, with the new handheld system releasing this year, and the home console component releasing next year (I've already said something about this on this site). Nintendo's handhelds perform much better than their home console counterparts, and as you and I know, Nintendo's current business (well, mostly their home console business) is dwindling. Do you really think Nintendo has a better chance of springing back to usual business with a lone home console in the long run? I don't think so. Their handhelds are stronger. Let them out into the wild first, methinks. All just speculation, however.
So yeah, maybe we will be playing the NX this year. But I believe it's what most people seem to think it is.

@Ichiban My thoughts exactly. Most people here are very passionate about Nintendo not letting their fans down, but money is money, and they know that the Wii U is already dead, I mean, it is not going to move more units in the foreseeable future, not unless the new Zelda comes out, but as you pointed out, it will come at the very end of the Wii U's lifespan and serve as the first step towards the NX.

I still say it makes no sense for a console to launch only a half year or so after the concept is announced. What other console has ever achieved that? A 2017 release is much more likely in my books.

@FRANKLIN_BADGE Well, if the NX doesn't come out until 2017, Zelda U won't be at the very end of the Wii U's lifespan and therefore be in a position to shift a lot of hardware.

October? That's a strange time to release a console. November is much better, since it capitalizes on the holiday sales.

That said, this does sound like a possible scenario, if Nintendo wants to replace the Wii U sooner rather than later. (Which indeed seems to be their goal.) Nintendo still has more to do with the 3DS, but they don't seem to have anything beyond 2017 lined up for it, so I'm sure they want to get NX out at the end of this year. They offloaded their online infrastructure work to DeNA, so maybe they can pull it off.

@Judgedean Nah, the Saturn was surprise released immediately after E3, because the American branch of Sega in the mid 90s thought they were so clever that they could one up the PlayStation in timing. None of the other big guys would be stupid enough to make such a mistake.

@aaronsullivan

The success is the over priced console right now and their love for shelling out amiibo.

@aaronsullivan Well, that's something we'll have to wait for then..

Anyway, I'd like to see anyone adress my concerns, because I cannot see Nintendo releasing a new home console succesfully in 2016. People suggest something similar to PS4, but that means that when PS5/Xbox2 release two years after NX, we're in the same boat again. People suggest that the console is even more powerful, yet expect it to be a lot cheaper than PS4/Xbox1. Dev kits have only been out since October/November if the rumours are true, what do people expect for the NX launch when the Wii U dev kits were released a year and a half before its launch and that didn't gain a lot of traction either? Late ports of old games aren't the solution. If people are mainly expecting Nintendo games at launch, how do they expect them to win over non-Nintendo fans? It'll be the Wii U all over again in terms of userbase. How do people expect it to compete with one of the most succesful home consoles of all time, the PS4, in its peak year in terms of software and hardware sales? What about the 3DS? Hardware sales have been on a decline ever since 2012-2013, software sales are slowing down as well. The Wii U on the other hand isn't selling amazing, but it's not slowing down either. They need to adress their handheld issues sooner than later as well. They effectively have to start at zero with their home console userbase. Whether they're going to do that this year or next year doesn't matter, it does matter that it's going to be a lot more difficult to do that this year. Everyone expect the NX to do the impossible, but nobody has given realistic explanation of how and what Nintendo should do. Until then, I remain skeptical. Launching a successful new home console in 2016 is nearly impossible.

@Octane Maybe Nintendo had them a year and a half before launch, but most thrid party devs only had them for around 6 months before the console actually released.

Criterion were almost up in arms at the thought of having to create NFS Most Wanted U in just 6 months. Turns out they shouldn't have worried after all, with how the game turned out.

@Octane

I doubt Sony and MS will be releasing the PS5 and Xboxnext within 2 years (or 3). Those systems are only 2 years old now an both Sony and MS have stated that these are systems for 10 or so years. Plus with how well the PS4 is selling, they shouldn't need a reason to launch so soon.

@Octane The Wii U was so difficult to port to, they could have had dev kits for 3 years and it wouldn't have made any difference. Porting to Wii U meant games would have needed to sell millions just to break even.

Having been briefed of specs 18 months in advance will be enough to get ports at launch as long as they've not made the hardware drastically different just for the sake of it again. People say Nintendo shouldn't make their machine similar to the others, but what advantage did they get out of with the Wii U? They could have had the Gamepad and all the same first party games with a console where the CPU and GPU function like other machines.

They admitted with the N64 they purposefully made the console awkward because they thought people would make games for it and then struggle to port to other machines. That backfired. After the 100 million sales of the Wii it wouldn't surprise me if they tried the same trick again with the Wii U.

@zool "Ok some disaster could happen"

I just like to cover all my bases. PS3 was delayed about a year after Sony wanted it out b/c of the manufacturing of the blu ray drive of all things.

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/report-sony-admits-ps3-delay-possible/1100-6144963/

So while I think 2016 is the goal and makes the most sense, I wouldn't be shocked if it actually came out in 2017. Perhaps we should be more shocked if it did actually come out in 2016 - see Zelda U, Starfox Zero, Miitomo, My Nintendo, Pikmin 3 "launch window" that came out 10 months after launch.

@manu0 "Microsoft introduced BC for Xbox One"

People the world over may hate Windows, but Microsoft accomplishing something software based is probably a lot easier than Nintendo accomplishing anything software based. Look at the slow roll out of games on VC. Just b/c BC might be doable on new hardware doesn't mean anybody at Ntinedo would actually know how to do it. If they did we would all be playing VC Gamecube games like Nitneod said we would over 3 years ago.

I think it's BC or 3rd party, and knowing Ntinedo its probably BC. And I'd beok w/ that, if Nintneod developed a hybrid system that played all of their games, and the system was cheap enough, and Nintnedo understood they aren't in competition with the other 2, they are something compeltely different. though they do need some 3rd party support,Sega and all of the toys to life games, and Monster Hunter. But I dont' see the mature AA games ever rtruning, though Madden and FIFA would be nice, COD and Assasins Creed isn't the end of the world if Nintendo positions itself as the family rom-com console among a world full of testosterone.

But they have to be up front about it, don't market Batman and Mass Effect and an unprecedented partnership w/ EA only to backpedal and offer only Just Dance. "Think Different" from the get go, to steal a page from Apple. Apple doesn' ttruly compete with Microsoft on PC, so they developed the iPad market. Nintendo needs to be THE hybrid market, handheld on TV, TV games on the go. They don't need Destiny for that, just 30 years of Nintnod game VC.

@electrolite77 "Mario 64 or Wii Sports"

I like your seemingly diametric choice of games. Goes to my biggest question about NX - who is Nintneod going to market it to, the 90 million causal Wii owners without a Wii U, or the 80 million PS3 and Xbox 360 gamers who still haven't purchased a PS4 or Xbox One? I think they went after both with Wii U - casuals w/ Nintnod Land, which failed miserably b/c nobody could understand "Asymmetric gameplay", and gamers w/ old ports of Batman and Mass Effect. I think they'll pick one to focus on this time, and I don't think it's gamers.

@akaDv8R Nintendo started distributing Wii U dev kits in early 2011, more than a year and a half before release.

@ikki5 With 2 years after NX, I mean two years after fall 2016, so they are effectively 5 years old at that time. Both the PS4 and Xbox1 aren't the best of the best when it comes to their specs. The PS3 and 360 were relatively more powerful for their time than their successors are. If developers already have trouble running games on 1080p and 60fps (even 1080fps and 30fps is difficult at times), then I cannot see those lasting for 10 years, of course that's what they're saying, that what they've always been saying. They certainly won't last as long as the PS3 and 360. PS4 sales; Well, they're probably going to peak this year, 2017 might be another good year depending on the software, but 2018 will definitely mark a decline, and that's usually a good signal for a new console.

@Peach64 If porting is easier, then sure, less time is needed, but it's not as if porting to the Wii U takes a year. It could be done quicker if porting is easier, but developers are still left with less time. But then again, we're talking about multiplat games only. A year is definitely not enough for new games.

The problem with a powerful Wii U is that it would've been more expensive than it already was at launch. Imagine PS4, but with an additional $50-$75 to cover the GamePad manufacturing costs. You can't have both; expensive hardware and an expensive controller for a low price. Well, unless Nintendo is going to sell hardware at a loss, but I don't think that's what they're going to do. I wouldn't mind that though...

@FreakFerrett "Game and Wario instead"

That's the first I've heard of that but it does make sense. I've only played it a bit b/c I got it free, and it isn't nearly as good as Nintnedo Land which I don't even like, but I can understand why they would consider it for name recognition.

Wi U had at least 2 dozen problems I could probably name off the top of my head, but for this conversation I'l just focus on the apparent lack of communication between the hardware and software developers. Wii U was nowhere near as powerful as it was meant to be. We never got dual Gmaepad support even though they were talking about it a lot around launch. Wara wara plaza is a white wasteland, not even themes like 3DS, which I honestly believe was conceived as the hub world in Ntinedo Land. I think all those little floating icons in wara wara were meant to be the doors in Ntineod Land and we would walk our avatar into them to play the games we wanted. But the Wii U was so weak they even came up with a "quick start" menu to do away with it completely. And then of course there's TVii maybe not a power issue, but a disconnect between the hardware and reality. And Vid Chat. Remember the Wii U non-specific action figure? How many games make use of the camera? Heck, how many games actually even make use of the Gamepad screen at all? DKCTF surely doesn't. And maybe that is a power issue, can't have graphics on both unless it's just the same screen being out putted twice.

So Nintendo came up with some interesting hardware in Wii U, and developers came up with games, but the hardware coudln't handle the games. So yes, NX needs to work as intended, as the game developers intend, not the hardware people. If there is going to be such a huge disconnect between the hardware and reality again they might as well go 3rd party. But I'm ok w/ the system being out the door and then minor enhancements being added later. I think in this day and age, no matter what firmware a game console launches with, people are always going to expect more - themes, folders, Spotify, etc. What Nitneod needs to be able to do is follow through with their promises, which they failed to do on several occasions with Wii U hardware. And the distance between the Gamepad and Wii U console was completely unacceptable for the US market where people live in multi-floor homes. I doubt they lost any sales b/c of it, but they might have been able to gain a lot more sales if kids could have used the Gmaepad in their upstairs bedroom while the console was in the downstairs living room, a whole house tablet for Miiverse, Netflix and web browsing. I think that could have been a big selling point in America if the distance was WiFi like.

@rjejr The reason we don't have more VC games or them being rolled out faster is that only a handful of people are working on them. I don't know why they don't put more people on this team, but it's not a technical issue.
I also suggested that Nintendo and Microsoft might talk about how they achieved BC, given their existing relationship that has been revealed by Minecraft being on Wii U.

@IceClimbers Simultaneous releases of opposite hardware?

That's both brilliant and insane at the same time. I really like the idea, but at the same time I seriously doubt Ntinedo could pull it off. Even the internal emails would get confusing I would imagine. Not that I woudln't put it past them trying, 2DS never sold in Japan, new 3DS I think was still that 1 shot HDD bundle in the US. But to release 2 nw systems that way? I like it, but I'm not convinced they could pull it off.

Of course I'm also not convinced that's it's separate hardware. NX has me flip-flopping more than a politician running for office. But I do like your idea enough to incorporate it into my own muddled thoughts. NX Home and Away (that's what I started calling them around Thanksgiving) launch at the same time as separate hardware, $250 Home and $200 Away, but the marketing push in the west would be for the Home and in Japan for the away. It's possible there would be no game integration between the 2 systems - like FFCC - until later, so they wouldn't need to sell them bundled and people wouldn't need to buy both. Well unless people with Home wanted a 2nd controller for $200, or people with Away wanted to spend $250 to play their games on TV.

So much potential, I hope Nintnedo impresses us, whenever or whatever NX is, and the NX Home doesn't immedialy bring this to mind for too many people.

@manu0 Minecraft on Wii U is simply to make more money on a game Microsoft paid $3.2B. I don't see any gain for MS from helping their Xbox One rival gain BC. I really don't know what Nintendo is waiting for with their back catalog. Maybe their new Nintnod president will start a subscription service. All those indie developers who can get their exact same game to run on PS3, PS4 and Vita hardware, surely Nintneod could get their NES, SNES and N64 games to run on new 2016 hardware?

@rjejr I'm not talking about neighbourly help, lol. I'm talking about patent deals. I know that Microsoft filed several patents regarding the BC and probably Nintendo has some patents Microsoft wants to use.

@manu0 ah, well that makes more sense, a little quid pro quo. Microsoft will give Ntinedo access to Perfect Dark and ask for the entire NES back catalog in return.

E3 window reveal in 2016, late 2017 (November) launch. Calling it.

Launch lineup will be stronger than Wii U, but still will not satisfy fans, because fans are never satisfied. My fever dream is that we get a "Monster Hunter X Ultimate" or some such at release that shows off the interoperability of the "family" of NX systems while also showing strength of third party relationships. While it seems like a long shot, remember that MH3U was a very early title for the Wii U that still remains one of the best games to show off the system's online capabilities and the interoperability with the 3DS.