Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

@Luna_110
Ray Tracing is the next step. Basically with the way games are rendered currently the game works out which elements are visible in the current frame. It then adds textures, lighting, effects and so on to those objects. You work out which parts of each object correspond to which pixel and draw the scene. That's not how ray tracing works.

With Ray Tracing what happens is each pixel shoots out a beam into the scene. That beam will eventually hit an object in the scene. That object will have various properties which will impact on what the beam does next. What angle it will reflect off on, what amount, how many beams it will split into, what colour the object will add to it etc. It then does this for however many steps the render allows. Then it goes onto the next pixel and does the same.

What you end up with is no aliasing and super realistic shadows, reflections and so on. Because what was done was a quick simulation of how light would behave in the scene rather than just an approximation based on cheeky maths and good art. Would be fantastic for certain kinds of games, particularly some of the more atmospheric games. But it's not going to happen for a while yet.

DS says hi

Install base is a huge factor.

In practice game sales are rarely in accordance with the exact ratio of install base between the consoles for other reasons (such as the ones I highlighted in my last post).

If nothing else once a console becomes like the PS4 and attracts more and more exclusive games those games become increasingly difficult competition for the next game that comes along. Eventually the competition becomes such that a game would be just as profitable (or more) on a console with a smaller install base if that install base is receptive to the genre.

So a game like Cuphead that might be lost in the mix on PS4 can expect to sell more as an XBox One exclusive than it would as a PS4 exclusive. Especially because on XBox One it can expect to be prominently advertised in their digital store.

Rare Replay would probably have sold more on Wii U than it did on XBox One - despite the smaller install base.

I'm not disagreeing that install base is a probably the biggest factor influencing publishers, but there are plenty more levers and considerations that might not be instantly obvious to us as consumers in the way that install base is.

We aren't seriously trying to downplay the success of the Wii are we (heh) now? Just take a look at the profits Nintendo took for the fiscal years in 2007/8/9 to see how ridiculous that is. The Balance Board scored past the PS3's LTD with ease, Mario Kart Wii sold 35 million and NSMB Wii 30 with them all managing to flog many millions more controllers on top of those ridiculous numbers.

Numbers ended up closer than perhaps they should've been because of the turnaround the PS3 had and the terrible transition Nintendo had from one generation to the next but for a large chuck of that generation it is absolutely fair to say Nintendo were top of the class, especially as the DS was just as successful, if not more. Maybe not as far as 'AAA' games were concerned but they never have been the be all and end all of the market, not for the NES, SNES, PS1, PS2 or even the PS4 now.

Why else did Sony and Microsoft in particular pour millions and millions into their motion control attmpets?

Saying 100 mill v 80 mil v 80 mill and PS3/Xbox sold more games (I don't quite know how emphatic this may have been, considering the Wii pushed closed to 1 billion software sales what were the other two like?) is extremely, extremley reductive, and I'd imagine deliberately so.

The true way of looking at it would of course be Nintendo = 250 million (Wii + DS), Sony 160-70 (PS3 + PSP) and Microsoft 80 (Xbox 360) if we're talking about dedicated platforms of that generation.

I think the 'winner' is obvious, numbers which even the most optimistic people at Nintendo couldn't have even dreamed of in 2004/5 and people downplaying it because of the trite "lol casuals" or "100 million v 80 million is like really, really close you guys!" is just desperate and pointless when taken out of context.

Nintendo would be lucky to get even a third of the revenue they achieved in that time again.

@Shinion Nobody is trying to do that. And looking at Nintendo as a whole, yes the DS was huge too (although one could also question if we should look at Sony and Microsoft as a whole then?). But he specifically stated that the Wii dominated the competition. I'm not sure sure of that. Yes, it sold more units, but I think that the 3DS or the DS would've been better examples of ''dominating the competition''. The 360 and PS3 sales are nothing to scoff at either and they're relative close to the Wii's sales. I'm not trying to argue that the Wii sold badly, all I'm saying is that all three consoles had incredible sales last generation.

@StuTwo
Except that the XBOne has half the install base of the PS4 and continues to sell at half the rate. It's also a console marketed towards the same audience with relatively similar specs. So you'd expect games to sell about half as well on the XBOne as they do on the PS4. Which is what you see when you look at sales data. Games will sell 30-70% less copies on the XBOne, most are at ~50%.

That gap in potential sales means less games are going to appear on the XBOne because of it. Publishers want to maximise their return, if they're going to develop for one platform it'll be the one where they can sell 2x as many copies. So less games. Which if nothing changes will mean less people interested in the XBOne compared to the PS4. Because gamers buy consoles for games. That'll slow sales, reduce the rate the install base increases. It's a slightly less extreme version of what the Wii U encountered but it's still a downward spiral

But then in comes the Switch. A different product with a strong developer and collection of IPs behind it with Nintendo. Potentially a rate of console sales matching the PS4. There's not necessarily the same negative spiral that the XBOne is finding itself in as a result. So there's a potential for the Switch to overtake the XBOne in terms of install base at some point. With the rate the XBOne is selling currently? That could be in just a couple of years.

Laura Kate retweeted this image from the UK Metro newspaper:

I read another person saying that it's £250. It'll come with a game and there are no multiple SKU's. Kinda making me think that I should jump on the Gameseek pre order before it changes(£198.50).

https://www.gameseek.co.uk/pd/Vidww4tgNSwitch/Nintendo-Switch...

That's if the rumours are true. Both Mario and Zelda are said to be launch titles.

That's a little under the € 300 threshold. Seems reasonable to me.

Wow it's below the 300 mark. Might just get it cause it's cheap.

If it's £249, then it'll be €299 and $299.

I suspected $300 or above. Especially after that "we won't sell at a loss" dashing expectations of a cheaper console. Not bad, anyway. I'm looking forward to having all the official details next week

Anyone want to play Nintendo Bingo? I made a bingo card for the switch event You can download the word document here.

@SLIGEACH_EIRE Laura also states that that's not the price she reported (she said it would be lower), and apparently Metro are using her as the source. And £245 does sound a bit of a random number.

I never trust what a free newspaper on public transport reports on stuff like this

Pretty cool! Though I think based on the screen size the 4 player splitscreen is unlikely.

I hope €299 is gonna retail it. That makes sure it'll sell. I'll pay more, just not sure if others would too. I still hope it includes a sim card slot for mobile connections. If there's a 50 euro premium for that, I'd buy it.

Kingdom Hearts 3. If the Xbone can get it i can see the Switch getting it as well.

@Grandpa_Pixel: I agree, but I put it on there because it was in the recent patents. Thanks, though!

Using the word document, you all can fill in the squares with your own predictions.

@Nicolai

I'm really really really hoping for a pikmin 4 announcement. It'd make my year

I do believe I have spotted the Bingo.

If the BG&E2 exclusive is really a thing, I feel like it'll be saved for E3. Don't expect anything about KH3 either though I'm pretty confident it'll come to the Switch.