Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

@Buizel
What's the point of making a prediction if it's not at least a bit of a gamble? Probably the safer bet would be to say that it will overtake the XBOne by the end of 2019, which I think is far more likely. But where's the fun in that? I'm only saying by the end of 2018 because my gut feeling is that it might come close. I'm not at all confident that it will actually manage it.

@skywake "have a larger install base than the Wii U by the end of 2017"

I think it's definitely possible too.I mentioned a while back that launching in March could work out great for them.They'll have the dedicated Nintendo fans who'll buy day one or in the first few weeks but this time they have both the home and handheld console fans combined,possibly 5 million plus straight off.There's the former fans who maybe haven't bought a Nintendo console for a while but are interested in Switch and may buy early,a couple of my mates fit that description.There's those that have been influenced by the mobile games and Mini NES too,might not be much but there'll be some.Then say Mario 3D launches within the first couple of months there should be a huge spike in sales with that so it could be at 6 or 7 million sold by the time E3 comes.Surely they'll have loads to show us at E3,which will increase sales further.Then with ports and 3rd party games arriving frequently and Pokemon possible in fall they'll be going into the Switch's first Xmas with a really stellar line up.It'll be a far easier sell to the public than the Scorpio too.With no new Sony console arriving for Xmas that we know of,the Switch could well be the "hot" item of the holidays.

I think it all really depends on the price.

If Nintendo brings it in at less than £200 then I think they'll sell a lot very quickly. I think that the games media (and fans "in the bubble") completely underestimate just how many parents buy kids cheap Android tablets for playing games on and they completely misunderstand both why the kids ask for them and why the parents buy them. I think the Switch could own that space if it's cheap enough and the games selection is right.

That combined with a moderately successful pitch as a more conventional console or handheld could easily put them over the Wii U total by the end of the year.

Over Xbox One by the end of 2018 though... I still think Microsoft might break compatibility - making Scorpio essentially a new system that plays all old XBox One games but meaning that existing XBox One consoles can't play all new Scorpio games.

Don't you think that 2 million Switch units sales target is a bit ambitious? If the release date is early March, then they might hit that target. Otherwise, I don't think that it can be achieved.

It wouldn't even need to be doing astronomically well to overtake the Wii U this year. All it'd need to do is hit around 14mill units assuming Wii U sales grind to a halt. Which isn't bad by any means but it's not ridiculously huge. For context in the last 10 years the Wii, DS, PSP, 360, PS3, 3DS and PS4 have all sold above 14mill units over one full year at least once. So I think it's very possible

The way it's looking I think it's going to end up being Nintendo vs Sony vs PC. If the Switch fails to overtake the XBOne I don't think it'll be because Nintendo failed. It'll be because managed to turn things around and started to pull people away from PlayStation. The longer it goes on though the more content gets developed for the PS4. Which makes the XBOne look less and less appealing.

I think a very key point here will end up being how important VR is in 2017. There was a CES leak from the AMD booth basically showing the focus of Scorpio to be 4K gaming and VR so you have Microsoft and Sony going full on into the VR space meanwhile Nintendo's focus is of course the Switch being both a handheld and home console. That said, there is the Switch VR rumour so maybe Nintendo's jumping in too.

@Azooooz Well looking at both ends of the spectrum of this generation- the PS4 and Wii U- should demonstrate that 2 million in 2 weeks is not an unrealistic target to meet at all, as IIRC the PS4 as an attractive product sold 1 million in less than 24 hours (and despite the disastrous unveiling even the Xbox One was almost as quick to break the 1 million mark) and the Wii U sold over 1 million in the launch window too.

Obviously both the PS4 and Xbox One went past 2 million not long after they were on sale and have continued to do well since, with the Wii U obviously not achieving the latter part there.

But yes consoles do tend to sell well at launch, especially when they are an attractive proposition. If the Switch is such, 2 million is definitely a target that will be hit before the end of March.

Yeah, all things considered, I'd be more surprised if it didn't.

@Azooooz No, If anything I think it's a very modest prediction. The Switch should be able to sell that on the first two or three days on the market.

Every news post brings a smile to my face. Nintendo seems to be very serious this time.

@Grumblevolcano
Of course those are the things that Scorpio is about. That doesn't mean that the average consumer will care about those things. And even if they do it doesn't mean they'll go to Microsoft to get their fix. Content is king, content chases the larger install base and Sony has the largest install base. Things could turn around for Microsoft but with the trends as they are? The XBOne isn't exactly gaining ground on the PS4.

I do wonder when specs will become more superficial than necessary. I heard the argument about certain systems needing all these specs to complete visions, but I don't really buy that argument.

@TheLZdragon TLG told me that we're still not there. AI is really taxing, and better AI requires more computing power. In terms of graphical power, I don't see much reason to go beyond 4K. Sound quality has been perfect for a while now. I think that resolution and framerate come next, after that it's only necessary to create more detailed worlds/levels and to improve AI. But there also comes a point when there's no use in trying to create bigger/more detailed games, since the man hours that go into them will reach a point where it's not sustainable anymore. Fortunately, indie games have also proven that you can make amazing games with little resources.

I heard about the AI too, and I don't have much to say since I'm no expert there.

I wanted to emphasize the last point. Small games have proven to be just as memorable as these giant AAA games, so why do we really need the latter? Do companies feel obligated to shoot for the sky...with rickety wooden ladders?

@TheLZdragon I like music too, so why do I need games?

Options are always good I think. This year I've enjoyed various ''smaller'' games, from ABZÛ and Firewatch, to Unravel and Hyper Light Drifter. Yet I'm still looking forward to some of the ''bigger'' games like Zelda and Horizon Zero Dawn.

I think it's more complicated than that. They don't necessarily chase the larger install base (if they did then every big AAA third party game would be released first on iOS) - they look at where their products are likely to be most successful.

For example in the previous generation online focused FPS's were likely to sell better on XBox 360 than PS3 and JRPGs with Japanese schoolgirls saving the world from demons could sell well on PS3 but would sink like a stone on the 360.

If the audience in the PS4/XBox One space makes their purchasing decision primarily on "which version looks better" then it's easy to see that Scorpio could shift momentum towards Microsoft.

I think it's also important to note that although PS4 is getting far more games (and far more good games IMO) than XBox One that game sales on those formats are absolutely dominated by just a handful of games and not necessarily the ones that people on this site are likely to be enthusiastic about. Getting those games and presenting them as well as possible is the key. So if Microsoft is able to supply Scorpio versions of Madden and FIFA that are clearly better than those on PS4 that's likely to have more of an effect on the mass market than a dozen exclusive games like The Last Guardian, Persona 5 or even Uncharted.

They can get EA (for example) to do that in a number of ways - taking a smaller percentage of EA's margin is one but they can also agree to prominently promote EA games in XBox One bundles, pin EA games to front of their digital store or offer EA other features that Sony won't (like when they originally wanted XBox One to have always online DRM - something that would have been very attractive to EA and other publishers). Through a combination of these approaches they can make XBox One a potentially more profitable and appealing platform for some publishers than the PS4 - even with a much smaller install base.

The same is true for Nintendo with the Switch but, likely, in other ways.

@TheLZdragon
It depends on the genre and style of game to I think. The same as with any other art form that's tied to technology in any way. Some genres and styles of games can be just as good on old hardware as they are on the latest and greatest. As tech has improved that's become true for more and more styles of games. There will always be something that pushes the envelope a bit more but that list shrinks with every generation.

@StuTwo
Yes, they look for the platform where their game is most likely to be successful. But install base is one of the largest factors. All things being equal if the same game on Wii U, XBOne and PS4 you'd expect ~60% of sales to be on the PS4, ~30% to be on the XBOne and ~10% to be on the Wii U. That's based purely on the install base size of each system relative to each other. So if a dev is going to make a game exclusive to something? It'll be the PS4.

I do think we're nearing the point in which we will have dimishing returns from increasing specs. I mean, sure Project Scorpio looks all nice and dandy, but if they have too high specs its going to cost a lot.

And the crowd that spends a lot on hardware is in PC, not with videogame consoles. PS3 already demostrated that.

That doesn't mean we won't keep getting better tech, but I feel that at some point it will slow down. What comes after 4k if the eye can barely see 4k? What comes after high fidelity sound? What comes after VR? And we can keep asking this question everytime they announce something new.

This. At the end of the day, Nintendo time and time again have shown they can step away from higher end hardware and make it cool to have a Nintendo product. Game Boy beat the other handhelds of its time. The Wii dominated the competition.

The reason is simple. Nintendo cares more about making fun and exciting games and innovation than powerful hardware. So when the day comes as Luna says where our eyes can no longer see the difference. When sound can not become more heightened. Nintendo will be able to stand on its own two feet due to their great ideas.

The Switch has shown that with all its hype. A portable Wii U (or greater) powered console. Such a simple idea but never done before. And now, less than 3 months stands in our way.

100 million vs 80 million and 80 million. You should've used the 3DS as an example (or the PS2), that's what domination looks like. All things considered, hardware sales were pretty close to the 360 and PS3, yet the Wii is always used as an example of a sales juggernaut, when there are clearly better examples. Especially when you take into account that the 360 and PS3 had better software sales than the Wii did.