Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

@kaisu and Overwatch

@kaisu I think it has to do with the servers not being NSO and not as "refined" for the console.

@Grumblevolcano i see, in that case better wait for Fire Emblem Engage/Legend of Zelda Tears of the Kingdom.

I just realized something. And it's so obvious, I'm not sure why it took me this long to see it.

Zelda Tears of the Kingdom is a spring release...

Think about that. Really, actually think about it. A game that big? Arguably the biggest release of the generation, and it's not a holiday title? Why? Why would they put a game of that caliber in the spring? Unless...

Unless it's launching with a new system, which, they have an affinity for releasing new systems in the spring (3DS launched in Spring, Switch launched in Spring, and I suspect Switch 2 will launch in Spring). There's no other strategy I can reason for slotting their biggest release of the generation into the spring window.

It's also the case that we haven't seen a new 3D Mario since 2017. Even if a new one released holiday 2023, that's still a 6 year gap. Are we really to believe there will be more than a 6 year gap before the next new 3D Mario? That seems far fetched to me. Ergo, it's reasonable to assume we'll get a 3D Mario next holiday, especially since we already got the next generation of Pokemon this year, and Zelda is in the spring. There's no way they release Zelda in spring but slot in a mid-tier game for the holiday. No. The only way they're releasing Zelda in spring is if they have another big hitter for November. Pokemon is out, Smash and Mario Kart are out. Animal Crossing is out. The only one left that would make sense is Mario.

And if we're getting Zelda in spring, and 3D Mario in November, well... you tell me. Does that sound like a release schedule for a 7th year of Switch, or for a 1st year of Switch 2?

@JaxonH Zelda is quite the evergreen title and will have legs. That game alone will keep the Switch's momentum going for the year. Sure, we may see new hardware, but I still haven't really seen an indicator suggesting Nintendo need one outside of next gen gamers wanting more. At the moment, it just sounds like they wish Nintendo would release a super expensive all singing all dancing model to me. So I'm still not convinced until we see a price drop.

@JaxonH you are not the first person who suspect, that Legend of Zelda Tears of the Kingdom release could be tied to a new hardware(be a new model of Switch or it sucessor) in the case of a Mario game for a holiday release, i could see 3 options, Nintendo will save the next 3D Mario for the Switch sucessor, Nintendo will release the next 3D Mario on holiday of next year, or Nintendo holiday release for next year is a 2D Mario game or the rumored 2D Donkey Kong game by Nintendo EPD 8.

@GrailUK The problem Nintendo are going to start facing is the question of how much more they can push the current hardware. I think the development of Zelda is going to be deciding factor as to how quickly they feel new hardware is needed. It’s going to be the biggest game they’ve created and I’m sure feedback from early stages would give a lot of insight into what’s needed in terms of hardware and when to release it.

@FragRed Last I read, they are projecting the Switch with a 10 year lifecycle. I'm sure they have a road map of how they are supporting it. I just think some folk are losing their nerve and starting to think more traditionally. Let's see how Switch sells this holiday. If it somehow underperforms, then I'll happily change my tune (coz I want one too!)

@GrailUK To be fair, what does a 10 year life cycle actually mean? The 3DS had a 10 year life cycle but it overlapped the Switch. I never take it to mean anything, especially as no company will ever say anything about dates of new hardware. Plus how far behind can you really allow yourself to fall in hardware, when cheap phones are starting to overtake you?

@GrailUK I think it's more about the longer gaps between new entries. It's a safe guess for example that the next Zelda after TotK releases in 2029, is a Switch 2 releasing then too late?

@Grumblevolcano That's another thing. With more powerful hardware comes longer development times. I wonder if Nintendo is ready for that? If the console is stil selling 19 million units a year, I would imagine they would want a period of prolific software sales first. Another 2017 type year with new Zelda and Mario games (especially on the back of the film) would be eye watering. For the record, I am always wrong lol. You guys probably know better than me. If they are sat on a new Switch upgrade, then I dare say some guys in an office getting paid more than me know when is best to release it.

@Grumblevolcano I stand by my opinion that Nintendo are releasing the next system in 2024. i just don’t see them being able to keep pushing it much further, especially with the dated hardware.

@GrailUK
I agree it's not needed and there is a lot of wishful thinking. Personally I'm OK with it not coming for a couple more years.

But I am trying to look at things objectively. While it's true Zelda could release in spring for no other reason, it doesn't seem to line up with historical precedent. If a new Switch doesn't come in 2023, so be it. But just looking as an outside observer, every piece of the puzzle seems to align pointing one direction.

@GrailUK I imagine it’s not as simple as just waiting for sales of current hardware to fall enough to then go ahead and push out the next generation system. It takes years to get all the stars aligned and an internal date is probably pretty much set even not to a specific month, a quarter is definitely being worked towards. They probably already know what the chipsets they’re using is.

@FragRed Metroid Prime 4 too, for the job descritions on Nintendo/Retro Studios site, it show that Metroid Prime 4 is gonna push the hardware to it limit, more then Bayonetta 3 and Legend of Zelda Tears of the Kingdom will possibly do, @Grumblevolcano Nintendo know the consequences of working in a PS4 level console(they gonna spent ¥300 bilion yens in order to expand it development studios and aquisition of new development studios(subsidiaries), @GrailUK Pikimin 4, Fire Emblem Engage, Kirby Return to Dreamland Deluxe, 2023 games for Switch confirmed so far

@FragRed Software sells consoles. We don't know what they have planned (apart from TotK - which is going to be huge.) It's a shame they can't give us a Direct tomorrow and let us know all the games planned for next year lol. But one thing they mustn't allow is kowtowing to third parties for starting to maybe get a little too ambitious on the system. The system, has succeeded on first party games, indies, ports of Gen 7 and the odd miracle Gen 8 (proven third party games to use what Nintendo said.). It will look more and more like it's struggling as folk try to bring Gen 9 games to it, but eyes on the prize, I don't think it's done yet. I would like to think Nintendo will release a new console when they have some new gameplay ideas. Like how they said they have an idea for Mario Kart 9 recently. My money is on that being a launch title they way the current one is going! And that's a couple of years away (again, more in line with 10 years.)

@FragRed Yeah, if sales tank then they missed the boat. But like I said, there are guys sat in an office somewhere with projected sales data etc etc and will have a more accurate idea of when to hit the 'price cut' button and when to pull the trigger on a refresh. Don't worry, I'm the first to admit I don't know what I'm on for hahaha. (and yep, Switch Pro day one for me please!)

And dammit, I want Metroid Prime 4!

@GrailUK I think it must be pretty unprecedented to have had a console out this long and not see an official price cut. That certainly tells a lot about how well it sells. Unless the Switch Lite was Nintendo’s way of lowering the price without actually lowering the price. Whatever happens, it ain’t gonna last 10 years without new hardware. But I certainly do think if it were coming in the next 12 months we would hear a lot of credible rumours by now. We always do with new hardware.