Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

Looks like localization is holding the game up. That type of thing is exactly why Nintendo NEVER committed to a March launch date for Zelda or for it to launch alongside Switch.

Yeah, Laura Kate Dale and even the sometimes right Liam Robertson seem to believe that the 3D Mario game is pretty much done and ready for the Switch launch. Interesting. It would definitely give Skyrim some time to shine.

January 12th can't come fast enough.

What do you guys think the odds are of Red Dead Redemption 2 being on the Switch? If it were, the Switch would definitely get a lot more attention.

@KirbyTheVampire I think it will depend greatly on how easy it will be to downgrade the various assets etc to make it work on the Nintendo Switch and how much Rockstar saw the Switch as a worth while investment when ever they received the dev kits. As a developer they have never really supported Nintendo consoles with multi-platform games with the exception of Bully and Table Tennis though there were the odd GTA spinoff title for handhelds.

I don't think consumers care what the margin is. If they do what they want is for the company to be selling it at a loss if possible. Purely so they think they're getting a good deal. This is entirely a signal to shareholders. If they're selling at a loss they're going to lose a lot of money if the attach rate isn't great. If they sell it at a profit then as long as the hardware doesn't sit in a store-room they're making money.

To put an arbitrary measure on it, they want to be selling more than 30mill units lifetime. That's the low bar. In their first year they want to be over 5mill global sales. Remembering that in the first year the Wii U did ~3.5mill, 3DS ~15mill, PS4 ~13mill and XBOne ~6mill. If by March 2018 the Switch hasn't broken 5mill then it's time to get out the doom again. On the other hand if it has broken 10mill by then? We have a three horse console race

[quote=skywake]

Sadly I'd argue that if Nintendo can't sell 5mill+ in a launch year at a price of £200, with Breath of the Wild and a new Mario, there's not much hope for Nintendo in the console business anymore =/

@Buizel I'd have to agree with that. If Nintendo can't sell 5 million units in a year despite a low price and a lineup that includes Zelda BotW, 3D Mario, and enhanced ports of Splatoon, Smash, and Mario Kart among other games then they clearly have no business selling hardware anymore.

Honestly if $250 is not at a loss and it's decently powerful, color me impressed

It's easy to say that based on the hype. But let's not forget everyone just assumed the wii u was gonna be a huge success before launch as well. In fact the first month and a half it did sell pretty great. We'll have to wait until maybe after Christmas next year to really tell if the mainstream populace has picked it up.

Especially after the wii u didn't even break 15 mill, 30 million is a lofty, but still achievable goal for them.

@Buizel @BiasedSonyFan
Which is why I said they want to be above those numbers. I expect it'll do better but if it does worse then there will have to be some serious introspection at Nintendo. It would be a bit of a disaster if the Switch fails to hit 5mill in the first 12months.

It just needs to sell more than the wii u, and of course be profitable overall. At the very least then it would get rid of the gradual decline in their console sales, excluding the wii of course. Of course, 13 million is a very very low bar to pass.

@Whitewatermoose
Double is above.... basically:

Wii U: ~3.5 mill
Vita: ~4.5 mill
5mill sales in the first 12 months, Switch needs to be above this. Under this is a disaster
360: ~6 mill
PS3: ~6 mill
XBOne: ~7 mill
10mill sales in the first 12 months, above this and it's a real contest
PSP: ~10 mill
DS: ~11 mill
3DS: ~14 mill
Wii: ~15 mill
PS4: ~15 mill

A lot of people are gonna see this thing because, unlike the wii U, you'll bring it with you.

I find it incredibly interesting that people even think that a decline from Wii U is even remotely possible. It had absolutely nothing driving it at all, from day one every major factor that drives sales (3rd party support, strong 1st party lineup, no droughts, interest from casual and hardcore crowds alike) was clearly going to be absent, adding to that how expensive it was and how the major selling point (asymmetric gaming) did nothing either and you have a plethora of reasons as to why the Wii U ended up the way it did. Seriously you could go on about how Nintendo prioritised the 3DS, how they were hampered by HD development for the first time, the name, and how the next gen arrived and kicked itself into gear during the Wii U's most successful period. It's a cliche phrase but you could write a book on the missteps that system had. From what I can see, there's already clear signs that several of those mistakes won't be repeated, so for the life of me I can't see why people think that a better and more attractive system like the Switch will sell even less.

I've heard of pessimism before but yeesh.

@erv I hope there's some kind of carry care for the Switch is they want me to easily take it with me. I worry that it may get damaged more easily than the 3DS due to the design. It's why I am slightly hesitant about taking the Vita anywhere, though I have a case for it.

@Shinion To play devil's advocate, that's the same thing people said about the Wii U. In hindsight it's easy to tell why it ended up selling this poorly, but back in 2011/2012? Everyone expected the system to do a lot better than 13 million units. It you would've predicted that before the Wii U's launch, everyone would've laughed at you too. There's still a lot of things we don't know about the Switch. What if the price is equal or more than $399? What if the third party support isn't as prevalent as we thought it was? What if some of the technical specs are disappointing (only 2 hours of battery life for example)? What if Nintendo's launch line-up isn't as spectacular as we thought it was going to be? What if it's a combination of all those factors? Not saying it is likely, but it's definitely possible that it won't be a success at all.

@Octane Well that would mean that Nintendo releases a $400 underpowered hybrid system with no games ready for it after already delaying it once specifically in order to have a better software lineup. And coming immediately off of the Wii U too.

Again I get being pessimistic. I get not believing in any rumours that might lead one to think positively (though I'd hope you'd also treat negative rumours with just as much scepticism). I get feeling burned out by the Wii U. But I absolutely do not get the "Nintendo has learned nothing" school of thought that just comes off as being pessimistic for pessimistic's sake. If one is going to go that far then they might as well go all the way and just keep on insisting that the Switch will be delayed in light of all reason and logic.

It was funny seeing how many people were convinced that it was delayed across the interwebs before the video last month, and how they zipped up straight away.

I personally think that drawing parallels between the last two Nintendo systems is kinda fruitless at this point. Maybe the price will be higher than what has leaked, maybe the several insiders who have insisted for months that there will be loads of great games to play on the Switch were making mountains out of molehills, and I do expect the battery to be mediocre on this as some believe but we won't know those things for another 2 months nearly.

Though I have a bit of an inkling to think that it won't be doomsday, we'd have heard about the major issues by now I'd think if there were any.

@Octane The Nintendo Switch will sell 13.1 million units, which means it won't be quite as bad as the Wii U!

Considering the "bad start" of the 3DS was ~14 million sales, I think Nintendo would have to mess a lot up to sell around 5 million in the first year.

While some skepticism is healthy (especially since we don't know all the details so far!), I really, really, don't see how the Switch can do as poorly as the Wii U, and as said before, if it does, I don't think there's a place for Nintendo in the console business anymore =/

@Shinion I'm not arguing it will. I thought I made that clear. I think there's even a chance that it might do better than the 3DS. However, when things are still uncertain, there's still a possibility that the opposite might happen. It depends on a few key points. Just like how people assumed that the Wii U would become an instant success, we can't assume that either one is guaranteed.