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Topic: Switch's Momentum going into the Holidays - 2018-19

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MasterJay

I just read this article:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-27/nintendo-s...

Does anyone agree with this? I think it's a huge exaggeration, and that the Switch is actually on track for a great holiday season with let's go and smash looking to sell great. So what do you guys think?

Especially with news that the switch was the 3rd best selling item of Cyber Monday...

Edited on by MasterJay

Well excuuuse me princess

My Nintendo: MasterJay | Nintendo Network ID: SuperSnapshot1.5

SwitchForce

This will always be a good time for Switch as it has new releases with SSB coming out that will boost sales more along with hardware. And I think Bloomberg is bias already from the getgo on Nintendo. The mere fact Nintendo has made it this far must bind their britches. Rather then commending on how innovative the Switch is they take a archaic mindset that if they can't reach what they think the sales figures should be that the Switch is dead. That's why the paper is going away and had little relevance in today's gaming world.

Edited on by SwitchForce

SwitchForce

Cobalt

@ReaderRagfish said : ""With few attractive titles for the holiday shopping season"...

I stopped reading here. Pokemon Let's Go was one of black friday's biggest sellers, and Smash Ultimate pre order numbers are reportedly some of the highest Nintendo's ever had."

So Pokémon Let's Go and Smash U doesn't mean "few attractive titles" ?
Two games means "a lot" for you ?

Cobalt

JasmineDragon

It sure sounds like somebody didn't read the Black Friday or Cyber Monday figures. Black Friday is one of the biggest indicators of holiday season success. I would be absolutely floored if Switch sales suddenly dropped off a cliff, especially with Smash coming in two weeks.

Longterm, they may not be completely wrong. It seems like the Switch has lost some momentum and may not sell like Nintendo keep saying it will. But it's still going to sell pretty darn well. They are acting like it's a failure in the making, when in fact it already succeeded. Nintendo is hot again. That wasn't the case before the Switch.

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Remind yourself that overconfidence is a slow and insidious killer.

Toy_Link

This article use quotes from when Micheal Patcher said the Switch would sell 10 million “with a price cut”. Yet this article uses updated predictions that are more than double of what Patcher predicted without a price cut (8 million vs 17 million).

Legal threats that have gone nowhere: 1

HunterLeon

"Few attractive titles for the holiday season"

Oh dear... Have we forgotten Pokemon and Smash already?

And if we're gonna ignore just how big they are anyway and say that they're "only two games" let's not forget third party releases, Mario in January, Mario Party/Tennis and all of last years' games.

Will Nintendo hit their target? Who knows. But I'd put that down to an overly optimistic target / slow summer more than anything. I'd don't doubt that Christmas will be huge for Nintendo.

Edited on by HunterLeon

Previously "Buizel"

MasterJay

Yeah, I know multiple people that just got switches this week, and these are people that consider themselves "hardcore" gamers that play on PC. This just goes to show how the switch has something for everyone, and it has the advantage where, unlike xbox and playstation, it's a great secondary console for on the go

Well excuuuse me princess

My Nintendo: MasterJay | Nintendo Network ID: SuperSnapshot1.5

Balta666

@JasmineDragon I am not so sure that switch has lost is momentum (yes, it had a light year in terms of software and could have sold a bit more) as even they don't correspond to their predictions I don't see them doing less than 15M+ this fiscal year and that is a lot in any normal conversation.
It will achieve close to Xbox 1 sales in two years time and with a bright 2019 ahead of it (and I also believe next year we will see more AAA same day releases or exclusives as they now got some time to see the sales and work on something new(

Balta666

linq

People keep underestimating the portability factor and the fact that Nintendo is finally bringing more mature games to their platform. It's not just Mario and pokemon. There's mainstream appeal with Fortnite and Warframe, etc.

I skipped the Wii and Wii U but the Switch hooked me. I've been buying and playing far more games than I did on any previous system. I don't know if they will hit their sales goals or not, but I think it's safe to say that the Switch is going to keep selling well enough to keep nintendo afloat. I don't care if the greedy shareholders are satisfied with the sales numbers or not.

linq

nocdaes

I think the Switch is in a fantastic position overall, but a few tidbits that I've thought about lately.

1. I do think retail in particular missed an opportunity over BF/CM to put a Switch + 1 big game on sale for £250.
2. The fact VERY and AO via eBay offered the best deals (£300 for Switch plus 2 big games) is a great move by them, but then seriously disappointing that GAME, Argos, Smyths Toys, Tesco... heck even Amazon, didn't do something as good, or even better. GAME and Amazon getting beaten on a deal by VERY and AO is just ludicrous... I really can't understand it.
3. So yea, a great result for BF/CM for sure, but I can't help thinking what could have been... £250 for console plus Pokemon would have literally flown off the shelves so fast. I'm convinced there's a big group of parents in particular that won't put down £300, but would be tempted by £250. It'll come in 2019, of course, but perhaps it should have been now.
4. Anyone that already owns the console has been well and truly spoilt in the first year. It doesn't matter how you position it, how much of a Smash fan you are, or even a Nindies supporter, a year with Mario Kart, Mario and Zelda is legendary, and it was always going to be impossible for Nintendo to follow up on it for us, the early adopters. BUT, what an offering it presents to those that haven't bought yet.
5. So 2018 was a little disappointing perhaps... it feels that way to me. Since Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze, I've been eagerly waiting for something big... it never really came, sadly. NSMBU Deluxe would have been a big boost if it came this side of Christmas, but certainly something great to combat those January blues (I genuinely think it's one of the best 2D Mario games, so if you haven't played it before you are seriously in for a treat).
6. Last point as this is long enough already... but 2019 is VERY promising. Can it be as big as 2017? Absolutely. And I cannot wait! I mean seriously... just look at this list of genuinely possible releases for 2019...

Yoshi, Fire Emblem, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Super Mario Odyssey 2(?), Bayonetta 3(?), Pikmin 4(?), Metroid Prime 4(?), whatever Retro Studios has been working on(?!), Star Fox Grand Prix(?!), Grand Theft Auto V port(?), Zelda Skyward Sword port(?), Super Mario 3D World port(?) - and that's just the stuff we either know about or can point towards with some logic... There's bound to be some surprises too!

Edited on by nocdaes

nocdaes

Mountain_Man

ReaderRagfish wrote:

"With few attractive titles for the holiday shopping season"...

I stopped reading here. Pokemon Let's Go was one of black friday's biggest sellers, and Smash Ultimate pre order numbers are reportedly some of the highest Nintendo's ever had

It's an ignorant statement because anybody buying a brand new Switch today is most likely buying it because of the entire library and not just for one or two new releases.

The Mountain Man

SwitchForce

Mountain_Man wrote:

ReaderRagfish wrote:

"With few attractive titles for the holiday shopping season"...
I stopped reading here. Pokemon Let's Go was one of black friday's biggest sellers, and Smash Ultimate pre order numbers are reportedly some of the highest Nintendo's ever had

It's an ignorant statement because anybody buying a brand new Switch today is most likely buying it because of the entire library and not just for one or two new releases.

People are likely to have Foot-in-Mouth disease for making such comments. Two games for a Switch isn't going to sell it alone or put it over the top in charts.

SwitchForce

GeoChrome

@Mountain_Man @SwitchForce This would be true if the titles were not Pokémon and Smash. Both are huge system sellers that many people have been waiting for. This has even been shown earlier in the Switch’s lifetime, with the Switch selling 6 million in the period of time that Super Mario Odyssey was released (this data was from the linked article).

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SwitchForce

@PolarExperience timeline won't matter here the Switch has been on the market since March 2017 and you make it sounds like the Switch just this Month is starting to sell. And there are reasons why they wait till certain dates knowing full well it will do better and get more interest during the major Holiday season. All makers do this and to suggest it was only just Nintendo doing this is also incorrect.

SwitchForce

Magician

Nintendo is going to fall short of their projection of 38m Switches sold by April 2019. But that's fine; investors will frown as the Switch easily passes the lifetime sales of the Atari 2600 (30m), Sega Genesis (31m), and Nintendo 64 (33m) in less than two years on the market. And the Switch's 2019 lineup of games is already looking better than 2017's.

Their stock price might be down, but Nintendo hasn't looked this strong since the Wii and DS were printing money a decade ago.

Edited on by Magician

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GeoChrome

@SwitchForce How did I suggest that Nintendo was the only console manufacturer to do this sort of thing? Christmas is obviously a time where all companies push their products to get high sales. I used SMO as an an example because it was another game released towards the holiday months and was from a beloved franchise. I was mostly trying to combat the statement that someone today would buy the Switch for its already existing library rather than the new and upcoming games it has, as @Mountain_Man had stated.
But yeah, I don’t really think Nintendo will be able to reach 38 million by March. Considering they are at around 20 million now, I think late spring/early summer would be a better estimate for sales of around 35-40 million.

Edited on by GeoChrome

Reading: The Climber
Watching: Monogatari Series
Playing: Xenoblade Chronicles Definitive

Switch Friend Code: SW-6148-2681-7704

Heavyarms55

@MasterJay I thought their goal of 38 million by the end of their second year was ambitious to say the least when they first announced it. While the Switch has done very well, I still wont be surprised if it doesn't hit that number. I've bought a lot of games this year. More than I can play. But overall, Ninendo's two biggest drops this year, Pokemon and Smash, are dropping now. What major release did Nintendo have this year before them? Octopath Traveller? Mario Party? Great games, but nothing like Mario Odyessy, BotW, Xenoblade 2, Splatoon 2 and Mario Kart 8 DX last year.

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MasterJay

@Heavyarms55 Yes I agree that the goal is a little ambitious, and Nintendo does to, and that's why they picked it. But as others have said, people don't just buy a switch for pokemon, they buy it for botw, mariokart, splatoon, odyssey, smash, and pokemon. So the collective amount of games from year 1 and 2 are going to push quite a lot of people into buying this thing.

Well excuuuse me princess

My Nintendo: MasterJay | Nintendo Network ID: SuperSnapshot1.5

Mountain_Man

PolarExperience wrote:

I was mostly trying to combat the statement that someone today would buy the Switch for its already existing library rather than the new and upcoming games it has, as @Mountain_Man had stated.

That's not exactly what I said. I was simply refuting the notion that the only compelling reason to buy Switch right right now is because of newly released and upcoming games when the Switch currently has a large and deep library. I bought mine earlier this year not for any one game but because it had reached a "critical mass" of games that I was interested in playing.

Edited on by Mountain_Man

The Mountain Man

Heavyarms55

@MasterJay Don't get me wrong. It's not as though I think they'd miss it by a lot. I figure they can hit the 35-36 million range easily. I would be surprised if it's any less than 34 million. And of course we all know they don't buy the Switch just for Pokemon or just for Smash, they buy it for those games and many others that are already out. But a lot, likely a majority of the people who were going to buy the Switch for any of last year's games, already have. So it's about convincing mostly people who thought last year's games weren't enough to warrant the purchase. For some people Smash and/or Pokemon is enough. But others might still be waiting for games like Animal Crossing, Metroid Prime, an actually new 2D Mario, or even something totally new. The Switch's most significant totally new IP, Arms, while not flopping per say, didn't catch on that much, and people might be waiting for the next out of nowhere new IP to come close to, or even surpass, Splatoon's breakout success. Other people are dissapointed by the favoritism shown to indie devs over having a virtual console with classic titles. A significant number of people were very excited over the possibility of N64 and Gamecube games, plus GBA, GB and SNES games all on the go on one device. That hasn't happened.

My main point is. There are still a lot of people out there, waiting for things that Nintendo hasn't given yet. Now obviously Nintendo can't do everything at once, but a lot of us do think we could have seen a bit more from Nintendo this year. NSMB U Deluxe, for example, a simple port of a Wii U game, could easily have already come out for the holiday season. Or any number of other Wii U ports could have filled some of the dry spots they had this year, in order to have continued last year's excellent trend of one very notable Nintendo title a month.

I've got over 50 games on my Switch, and I love the vast majority of them. But I know a lot of them are smaller titles, more niche titles, and not the kinds of titles that really generate much news and drive console sales. Next to no one is buying the Switch for Cities Skylines and Civilization 6, even though I was positively thrilled to get those on the system.

Edited on by Heavyarms55

Nintendo Switch FC: 4867-2891-2493
Switch username: Em
Discord: Heavyarms55 / SW 4867-2891-2493#1475
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