Topic: The Nintendo Switch Rumor and Speculation Thread

I don't remember @Snatcher. Anyway, were you going to reply @skywake? I unblocked you.

So does the May 12th, 2023 TotK release date change anyone's opinion of when a Switch pro/2 may be announced and/or released?

I was thinking they were going to hold off launching TotK as a cross platform title with the Switch pro/2 being announced in late February and released in June but that May date for TotK has me questioning my apparent optimism.

@ProPAIN Personally no, I think it's going to be 2024. Backwards compatibility and support for both platforms are probably the biggest questions...If the next 3D Mario is a launch title, will it also be on the Switch?

Nope, I still feel Nintendo are going to extend the Switch's lifecycle as long as they can.

I expect the Switch successor in 2026 at the earliest, with no "pro" version between now and then.

@Magician If you're right, I wouldn't be surprised if they released a Lite OLED, retired the LCD original and lite models and lowered the OLED price.

I don't think it changes much. Worth remembering that the Switch wasn't announced until October 2016 and up until that point absolutely nothing was officially confirmed for it. I mean sure, it was pretty obvious that the Switch was the reason Zelda was being delayed. But they didn't say it was coming out for Switch until they showed it in that launch trailer. And they didn't announce the release date for BotW or that it would be a simultaneous release until January

The only thing that gives me some pause is that they've given an actual date for it. But I'm also of the opinion that there will be no "Switch successor" and these late Switch games will just run better on the newer hardware out of the box. And also, once again, anyone saying 2024 or even 2026 is completely delusional

@ProPAIN My general thought of it being a launch title for new hardware is unchanged but announcement timing I think will be different.

I feel there'll be a general Direct in November around the time of Prime's 20th anniversary with 1st party stuff being giving release dates for the holiday DLC/updates, more info on FE Engage, whatever's releasing in December/March/April, a release date for Advance Wars and the Direct closing with a Prime 4 teaser (where the game releases in 2023) as a way to remind people Prime 4 is actually coming to Switch much like Pikmin 4 was confirmed to still exist last week. No new hardware news here.

Then in January (maybe the week after FE Engage launches) there's a teaser for new hardware launching the same day as TotK with a big event in March. I don't see a teaser happening this year given it would harm Switch hardware holiday sales.

@skywake

And I think anyone expecting a 2023 announcement for any new Switch hardware that isn't an OLED variant is wildly out of touch. Why would Nintendo introduce a new product while they have the #1 product on market? Switch sales aren't slumping that badly to justify a move like that.

That'd still be a 'switch successor', if you do mean the actual next-gen Nintendo, @skywake .... But I'd certainly hope current games would be BC on that, too! The others have shown you don't need to stop making games for the previous system straight away, potentially
I'm not sure whether to hope you're right, @MarioBrickLayer, since I'd be a lot more tempted to buy a Lite OLED, lol but that'd certainly make sense

Other other thing to factor in there is, what would the sales numbers be if Nintendo could produce the volume of Switches they would like to? Sales are down, but I'm not sure demand is.

@Grumblevolcano I'm still hoping there is a Metroid Prime announcement for this year!! There holiday line up is a bit weak and I believe people like Nate The Hate when he says the game is done, he is certain of it.

@BruceCM It might make sense, but Nintendo don't always do things that make sense to their fans!!

@MarioBrickLayer

Sure sales are down, but industry-wide sales are down. Everyone is done riding the highest of highs from the pandemic boon as folks were staying at home and looking for distractions. Nintendo still sold more Switches from March 2021 to March 2022 than they did in the Switch's first year. I maintain that Nintendo won't pull the trigger on a new SoC until Switch sales fall below 10m a year, which won't happen for quite a while yet.

@Magician
If the Switch gets no significant internal hardware revision or successor until 2026 it would become the longest lived console on the market to never get a revision or successor. Which would be completely insane especially given the only console ever to last that long was the Gameboy. Which was, needless to say, a very different era

I expect the Switch brand to last for a fair while longer because, as you said, the Switch brand is very strong. Worth noting that Nintendo followed up the NES with the Super NES, the Gameboy with the Gameboy Colour and Advance, the Wii with the Wii U and DS with DSi, 3DS and New 3DS. So brands can last well beyond one generation. But Switch or not, Switch Pro or Switch 2, I don't expect Nintendo be selling just Tegra X1 SoCs paired with 4GB of DDR4 until 2026. And I think anyone who does expect that is delusional

There will be a hardware revision and one soon. The general precedent for new hardware based on previous generations would be in the window between early this year and late next year. We are right in the middle of that window now so I think it's fair to start wondering when rather than just blindly pretending hardware lives on shelves forever

Also a last point from your last comment there. You say that Nintendo won't pull the trigger until sales significantly dip, but that's not how this game works. A hardware launch doesn't happen overnight, there has to be a buildup for over a year before. Which means you have to guess in advance when sales are going to start falling off and meet it on the other side with new product. I don't think a company as conservative as Nintendo is is going to be playing chicken until late 2024. Hell, the OLED model was already new product designed to meet already projected slowing demand

@skywake

Just keep in mind that the seven-year console cycle hasn't been a "thing" in decades.

Console generations last closer to nine years now, and we're only in the Switch's sixth year.

Buckle up for the long haul, buckaroo.

@Magician
Console generations are most definitely dead but the only reason they're "dead" is because last generation Sony and Microsoft released significant mid-generation hardware refreshes. PS4 -> PS5 was 6 years but the gaps between PS4 -> Pro -> PS5 was more like 3. Same deal with the XBOne. I expect the Switch to get something similar hardware wise as a "successor"

Late 2023 pushes the Switch to close to 7 years. The only consoles that have lasted longer than that without any significant internal hardware revision being sold are the Gameboy (9 years), the XBox 360 (8 years) and PS3 (7 years). The Gameboy had an extended life due to it's fantastic battery life and huge success of Pokemon at the tail end. The 360 and PS3 were kinda similar, they got a second wind as a semi-post-Wii generation of console for a lot of people

The Switch has nothing particularly unusual going for it in comparison. The Switch basically exists in isolation and there isn't any reason to think at this point it's going to get its biggest hits in the next couple of years. 2026 would push the Switch to over 8 years. 2023 is a long life, 2026 is mental. I don't see that happening and I don't care how many sales charts and feelings you want to point to try and argue otherwise

@skywake

The trials and tribulations of my being a pessimist. To be fair, I would like for you to be right. That we'll get a half-step upgraded Switch that runs games a bit better. But I think Nintendo and Nvidia have something more for us a bit later down the road.

Regardless, 2023 should be good year for gaming despite our differing perspectives on Nintendo's possible near future.

@Magician
I don't really see it as a question of optimism or pessimism. It's more just a function of the fact that tech generally "doubles" about every 2 years, maybe a tad less but still exponential growth. So after around 6 years you're rapidly approaching being 10x behind what you could be selling at your original price

Just look at the Steam Deck. 4x the RAM, close to 4x the memory bandwidth and close to 4x the raw compute. It's not really a platform where games are as optimised as the Switch is but it has the guts to well and truly overcome that. Base model is only $50US more than the Switch OLED. That was this year, that's where we are right now. How far behind what it could be will it be by 2024? 2026?

I don't see how they don't release something compelling to get a second surge of interest that can push them through 2026

As a Switch owner, it's difficult looking at the Apple M2 SoC and its ability to run RE Village natively and not be a bit jealous.

@skywake

Just to swerve on the discussion a bit. How much would you be willing to spend on a half-step-up Switch? Honestly, I don't envision Nintendo lowering the price of the OLED any time soon. So shall we begin the assuming at...$400?

Hmm, PS5 or Switch Pro....? PS5 or Switch Pro...? I can't imagine anybody but the hardest of hardcore Switch owners making the upgrade. By comparison, how many GBA Micros did Nintendo sell against the overall GBA sales numbers?

Are we having fun yet?

@MarioBrickLayer The thing with the constant Metroid Prime rumours apart from being a thing for almost as long as Switch Pro (and that started before the damn console even came out!) Is that the rumours state a release to coincide with the 20th anniversary of Prime.

That's a nice idea, but there's something else coming out on that day that means Metroid sure as hell isn't.