@VoidofLight I don’t think this proves that there won’t be a Direct. It is very short, not really much info we didn’t already know. If it was a full-blown trailer then a Direct would seem less likely, but at this point I don’t this points towards there not being a Direct.
@PikminMarioKirby There is no reason to think there won't be more trailers for Mario and Luigi; trickling them out seems to be what they are doing with Zelda and they did a whole long series of trailers for games like Peach earlier in the year when there was no general direct.
I do agree they have to reveal another game or two for Switch for early next year. They could do it a few ways — have a combination direct plus Switch 2 reveal. Or have a mini general in September or October, or just reveal one small game in a random announcement and have a bigger direct in January rather than February.
@PikminMarioKirby
When they did this for Switch there was the September 3DS Direct. Then the October reveal. Then a couple of game specific presentations to tail out the year
January was the full Switch press conference, February was Indies for 3DS/Switch, March was launch, April was a general Direct
So.....
August: Switch Indies/Partner
September: Reveal (extended?)
October/November: Random drops for NSO etc
February: General Direct
March: Indies
April: Launch
I don't see the supposed gaps here that need to be filled. Also yes, the first half of 2025 is currently light on Switch games. Perhaps there is a reason for that which could be explained post Switch 2 annoucement
Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
An opinion is only respectable if it can be defended. Respect people, not opinions
I'm just surprised that Nintendo is skipping over the perfect time to reveal a new Tomodachi game. This lull in-between systems is the perfect time to release it for a quick "filler" month.
"It is fate. Many have tried, yet none have ever managed to escape it's flow."
@FishyS Yeah there should be 1-2 more main trailers for Brothership (aside from the overview trailer). If there is a Direct it is almost guaranteed Nintendo will want to save a trailer for it. If not, it'll probably have a similar marketing route as EoW or Peach Showtime like you said. I don't think this short trailer really makes a potential Direct less possible.
@skywake What I meant from there being gaps was more of gaps for games. If we're talking about the time around Switch's release (in 2017), there were many 3DS games:
Yoshi's Woolly World port in January/February
Mario Sports Superstars in March
Team Kirby Clash Deluxe in April
Fire Emblem Echoes of Valentia in April/May
Hey! Pikmin in July
Kirby's Blowout Blast in July
Metroid Samus Returns in September
Mario & Luigi Superstar Saga remake in October
Pokemon Ultra Sun/Moon in November
Mario Party Top 100 in November/December
Kirby Battle Royale in November (January 2018 in North America)
This list shows that even though the Switch took the spotlight, 3DS was still being heavily supported by Nintendo. Even in 2018 and 2019 Nintendo gave a little support to the 3DS. I don't think Nintendo will immediately drop support for Switch. 11 published (maybe more if I missed some) 3DS games in 2017 is a lot considering the focus was on Switch. I am not expecting 11 Switch games next year (Nintendo might want it's casual fanbase to move away from Switch sooner), but it does show that Nintendo probably has more in store for the Nintendo Switch in 2025 other than just Legends Z-A, MP4 Beyond, and DKCR HD. Specifically, 1-2 more games should fill in February/March slots. A September Direct has often been the time for Nintendo to announce titles for those months.
November 2024 is also technically available, since the huge 'Pokemon' week isn't being taken advantage of right now. I doubt a major new title would be announced so close to release, but a remaster of sorts could certainly fill in that slot (New Leaf please!)
And like @Croctopus said, Kirby has been oddly silent recently. We get them fairly frequently but it has been about a year and a half since RtDLDX. I think that a Kirby game could fill in some random time this year, or maybe the February/March slot next year.
I think your timeline is accurate if we don't end up getting a Direct in September. However, if we do, here's my prediction:
August - Partner Showcase/Indie World
September - General Direct
October - Switch Successor reveal
January/February - Switch Successor Presentation/Direct
May - Switch Successor release
The best timeline possible (in my opinion) would be getting a Switch Successor reveal, followed soon after by a Direct that ends with a 3D Mario 2025 tease. Not likely at all, but would be grand for sure.
We probably won't be getting a general direct in September because every big game that Nintendo could do reveals for has gotten massive reveals. The only game that hasn't is Mario and Luigi, and they could just drop a trailer at any time for it.
"It is fate. Many have tried, yet none have ever managed to escape it's flow."
The biggest thing missing at the moment is the monthly NSO Expansion Pack games. If you look at this year's timings:
January 17th - Golden Sun + The Lost Age
February 21st - Blast Corps
March 29th - F-Zero Maximum Velocity
April 24th - Iggy's Reckin' Balls + Extreme-G
June 18th - Metroid Zero Mission + LttP/Four Swords, Perfect Dark + Turok (all 4 as general Direct shadow drops)
July 12th - Starfy 1-3
August 9th - Red Rescue Team
Taking that into consideration, the gap between games is 4-5 weeks outside of the situation where they stockpiled 4 games for a general Direct shadow drop. So a normal situation would mean release this week or next week.
@PikminMarioKirby
I didn't misunderstand you, I know you meant gaps in the release calendar not gaps in the Direct. But your confidence in a September general Direct pre Switch 2 reveal is based on a belief that they need to fill out these gaps ahead of time. Which in a usual year would be true, but this isn't a usual year
If Switch 2 is April/May next year then the release calendar for the first half of 2025 will be dominated by Switch 2 content. Either cross-gen or Switch 2 exclusive. That's the content that fills those gaps. I'm sure there's still going to be Switch only stuff but most of it will be Switch 2 in some way. And they can't really talk about any of that untill they announce Switch 2
Consider this possibility. DKCR January, February maybe just some NSO goodies, March maybe Pokemon. Then April Switch 2 with Prime 4 cross-gen. Would there be enough there to cover Switch interest? Probably. Especially if there's also something like a general February Direct
So I don't see how there is any reason for a general Direct before they announce Switch 2. If that happens soon. Which it could well given there are only so many months left
Some playlists: Top All Time Songs, Top Last Year
An opinion is only respectable if it can be defended. Respect people, not opinions
@skywake What I meant from there being gaps was more of gaps for games. If we're talking about the time around Switch's release (in 2017), there were many 3DS games:
Yoshi's Woolly World port in January/February
Mario Sports Superstars in March
Team Kirby Clash Deluxe in April
Fire Emblem Echoes of Valentia in April/May
Hey! Pikmin in July
Kirby's Blowout Blast in July
Metroid Samus Returns in September
Mario & Luigi Superstar Saga remake in October
Pokemon Ultra Sun/Moon in November
Mario Party Top 100 in November/December
Kirby Battle Royale in November (January 2018 in North America)
I had some time to dive into this a bit deeper and I think this comment is worth making. The claim was that the 3DS lineup in 2017 had enough content that it needed the September Direct. And that the same is true for the Switch at this moment. Basically the idea is that there are gaps in the 2025 calendar which can't really be covered by a Direct in February or April next year because that'd just be too late. The above list was the rebuttal to make that case
However, this is when those games were announced:
Yoshi's Woolly World - September 2016
Mario Sports Superstars - September 2016
Team Kirby Clash Deluxe - April 2017
Fire Emblem Echoes of Valentia - January 2017
Hey! Pikmin - April 2017
Kirby's Blowout Blast - April 2017
Metroid Samus Returns - June 2017
Mario & Luigi Superstar Saga - June 2017
Pokemon Ultra Sun/Moon - June 2017
Mario Party Top 100 - September 2017
Kirby Battle Royale - September 2017
......... I don't think the relative strength of the 3DS lineup and how it was announced is a strong case for the need for another general Switch Direct this year. I think it's a reasonable case for a February or April Direct that includes Switch. Or announcements for cross-generational games. Or for Switch to still get mentions deep into 2025. And I think all of those things will happen. But I don't really buy this idea that we're sitting here with this huge gap in the early 2025 calendar that can't be filled by just a new console launch in April or May
Honestly, if anything we have more games announced for 2025 on Switch than we had for 2017 on 3DS after that September Direct. The medium term for Switch is looking quite a bit better than 3DS did in October 2016. So I don't really see the argument that there's not announcement space for most of the rest of 2024 to be not-Switch
@skywake I believe that the one who started these rumors, Brazil, stated that even though the Partner Showcase/Indie World were moved up, that a reveal isn't necessarily in September, but it was more clearing the way for the Switch Successor reveal. That makes perfect sense to move up a late September presentation to give more room for an early October reveal like I was saying.
No matter when the Switch Successor reveal is happening, I wonder how far in advance Nintendo will let us know it's happening? I doubt they'd shadow-drop it but I guess they could if they really wanted XD
Nintendo probably could go a while without a Direct, although Nintendo ideally wants a big Mario Party trailer before October and a Mario and Luigi trailer well before November, since both games are expected to at least have 1-2 more major trailers before their release. I can't recall a time where we went into a year without knowing a February/March title, so I think that is nearly guaranteed to be announced before the end of 2024. And as I've mentioned before there are many other things Nintendo would potentially have in this Nintendo Direct, and things Nintendo probably would rather announce sooner rather than later.
This was actually the closer of the September 2016 Direct. It was pretty much just called Pikmin for 3DS at the time.
Personally I think Metroid Prime 4 will be backwards compatible but not actually cross-gen. I'd say a 3D Mario and a new multiplayer IP are likely contenders for launch titles.
If we get a Direct week of September 16th, then that'd give about 3 weeks until the Switch Successor reveal if I had to guess.
This doesn't have to be a spectacular Direct, either. September 2023 was good and all, but it was a lot of what we already knew, 3 remakes/remasters, and a 99 game. I expect only 2-3 new reveals, along with trailers for Mario Party, Brothership, NSO, DKC Returns, and possibly Metroid Prime 4 and Legends Z-A (I could see Nintendo waiting a bit for those two though).
@Grumblevolcano that could definitely be a good indicator about getting a Direct. If we get an NSO drop, a Direct will seem less likely since those often get announced at Directs if a Direct is happening.
@PikminMarioKirby
I still think a Switch 2 announcement either this month or early next month with maybe a NSO drop here or there is all we'll get for the rest of this year.
Obviously a Switch 2 announcement has to include new games so there's that. A Switch 2 announcement very possibility puts a date on Metroid Prime 4 for example. But I don't see why we need more Switch Directs. Not if the first half of the year has Switch 2
Then the next general Direct would be early next year. Which would likely fill out the Switch calendar for the first half of 2025
@skywake I could see the Switch Successor reveal being like the Switch OLED where it shows upcoming games being played, like Metroid Prime 4 and maybe Legends Z-A . I think they’re going to show more than just someone playing Metroid Prime 4, so there’s probably going to be other games. Is it possible that the Switch Successor reveal could reveal some exclusive game(s)?
I think week of September 16th is going to be big, whether we get a Direct or Switch Successor reveal. Early October can be a good time for announcements/releases for Nintendo, so I’m leaning on early October for Switch Successor reveal.
I don’t think a Switch Successor release would fill an entire half of the year. Nintendo probably wants more games out by the end of the fiscal year (end of March) to maximize yearly profits.
Speaking of, when the Switch Successor gets revealed, it’d probably be in Nintendo’s best interest to either price cut the Switch or give us something similar to Nintendo Selects. Less people will probably get a Switch when the Successor is revealed, so lowering the price would be a great way to convince some people on the fence (or perhaps those who want a 2nd console).
@skywake I don't think we can dismiss the possibility that both are true at the same time, a general Direct which contains the Switch 2 reveal. Kind of like what happened with New 3DS (Nintendo's only system at the moment in the past 20 years which was just "previous system but more power").
@Novamii I foresee most of the big name publishers having one title. Monster Hunter Wilds from Capcom, Squeenix revealing Kingdom Hearts 3, Bamco with Elden Ring (published by Nintendo) seems super likely, CD Projekt Red with Cyberpunk 2077 is a maybe... but this is starting to feel rather packed. And of course Microsoft / A-B with Call of Duty. EA is hard to predict but... I'm thinking Mass Effect Legendary Edition if they show up at all.
But looking at that list, it doesn't have enough all-age games. So on top of Nintendo's internal reveals (I'm guessing Mario Kart 9/10, New 3D Mario, at least one brand new IP, and Animal Crossing will feature), we're also going to get one more surprising 3rd party title...
I'm going to go out on a limb and say a new Bomberman from Konami will show up of all things.
tldr; I think that unlike the 3DS situation, we're going to see Switch 1 support maintained via cross-gen releases, not via a totally separate set of exclusives.
@skywake I think that's a likely reason why they're holding off on showing what the schedule is for next year as well, without it being 'they're abandoning the Switch 1'
@skywake I don't think we can dismiss the possibility that both are true at the same time, a general Direct which contains the Switch 2 reveal.
To clarify, my position here isn't that there won't be another Direct this year
I'm not at all discounting the possibility of a general Direct that includes a Switch 2 announcement. One that then goes on to talk about Switch 2 games, cross gen games, BC, NSO, continued Switch support. I think it'll be more focused than that but I don't think such a thing is impossible
I'm also not discounting the idea of more Switch announcements. If anything I would be surprised if the average 2025 Direct doesn't spend a fair chunk of time talking about Switch. I think they will almost surely fill out that calendar. At the very least they need to date games like Prime 4
What I'm saying is that after the Directs we just had and with H1 2025 fairly well covered if Switch 2 launches? It seems very improbable that there's a Direct in September just for Switch games. Switch 2 at this stage is almost surely holding up game announcements. I expect they'll want to clear that out of the way before they start doing 40min presentations again
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