@Bolt_Strike Turned out I made a mistake about Fire Emblem announcement timing (it was January, not February):
But it was still far in advance.
I do think the key factors for Direct type and timing would be Prime 4 and if Nintendo’s going to mention new hardware at the early May fiscal year meeting. My thinking of April general Direct is an outcome where Prime 4 is Fall/Holiday 2024 for the current Switch. Even if all the other 1st party announcements were ports/remasters/remakes, I think Prime 4 would make it a general Direct.
There will be a AAA title this year, but it's not going to be released in summer lol. But whatever it is, I'm already not looking forward to 'why didn't they save it for Switch 2!?' .
I mean... I couldn't help but think about how Peach Showtime would have run much better and been even more gorgeous on Switch 2. If all the annoying people hadn't been complaining about how Peach is a kid's game without bothering playing it, they would have been talking about it on Switch 2 instead. 😛
Remember that the Switch wasn't revealed until October, we might be waiting until the Fall to fully lift the lid on this thing. We could be sitting on next to nothing for the next 6 MONTHS.
Yes. But they also confirmed its existence in early 2015 and made it clear in early 2016 that the biggest Wii U game (BotW) was going to be cross-gen. Not to mention it was following the Wii U/3DS era meaning Nintendo was in a very different position than they're in now. Not to mention that the "Switch 2" will be architecturally similar so cross-gen will almost surely mean something different than it did for Switch
How that impacts the way this plays out? No idea. But I think it's fair to say the Switch timeline is probably not a timeline they'll follow to the letter here
@skywake Maybe, but even aside from the Switch's release schedule there's other reasons I'm skeptical a full reveal is imminent. Nintendo hasn't even started discussing new hardware (aside from generic PR responses of "we're always working on new hardware" when people ask) or giving us a codename. I think we'd probably be stewing on that for at least a few months before they're ready to give us a full reveal, they don't want to fully lift the lid too early or word will get out to casuals and competitors too soon and they'll struggle to sell their remaining OG Switches and possibly jeopardize the transition. I'm going over possible timelines for the reveal in my head and I'm struggling to pin down exactly how they would do it and whether or not it would make sense to completely repeat the Switch's reveal timeline. But one thing I am confident about is that June feels too soon for them. Maybe they'll do Fall again like the Switch, hell maybe this time they could cut it even closer and not say anything until like, January or something, but I'm more inclined to believe it'll be later than what the rumors say. I could see us getting confirmation that it's in development and a codename at the Earnings Release in May, but that might be all we know about it by the time the calendar turns to July.
@Bolt_Strike
I don't necessarily disagree but I would say I think people seriously overestimate the supposed risk to the current Switch. Or the extent that it would even matter assuming decent cross generational support. I fully expect the hype cycle to be short, it's already fairly short given we're likely already within a year and know nothing. But I'd be very surprised if we don't hear something before August at the latest
And I'm not entirely sure what the point of a codename reveal would be. The reason they did that for Switch was to calm down investors because Wii U was imploding. They don't need to do that for Switch
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@skywake I can only go from Japanese sales data because that is the most transparent (and besides, it's a Kyoto company so it's a good metric) but I think Switch will need to sell way less units for a new console to be announced before Christmas. Usually, we see a price drop before an announcement, and this could be a reason why Nintendo are hoping the Japanese bank takes some action later in the year. If the yen is strengthened, then they can sell something cheaper but make the same in real terms? It would leverage such a price drop in their home territory (maybe, I'm no financial expert!) But that said, I'm talking (like most people do to be fair) like it's something they have to do because that's how it's done instead of being able to look at their sales data and act from that and their forecast. I mean, what was it, 12 million this year? Who in their right mind discounts that lol. Usually a console is struggling to sell 300,000 units in a calender year (Japan - not worldwide) before a new console is launched. (Which kinda also pours water on Mr Ryan's 160M PS2s figure.) Whilst the Switch is selling around 60K units a week...it's hard for me to see where they go lol. (I've said it before, I am soo glad I'm not the CEO of Nintendo - I am profoundly underqualified for the job hahaha!)
@skywake Bringing up the next system in some way at the early May meeting would be solely about informing shareholders that new hardware is happening in the current fiscal year. “[insert codename] releases in [insert release window]” would just be one possible way of doing that.
@GrailUK
I'm no economics major but, broadly, a stronger Yen will mean Nintendo will have to pay more for imports but will make more money from exports. I'd imagine for the Switch as it stands that won't really make much of a difference in terms of timing because sales and stock are very stable. But for Switch 2? It's a new platform, it's volatile, timing will make a difference
The period just before a console launch involves buying up a large inventory. The stronger the Yen gets the more expensive that becomes for Nintendo. But during that period they're not selling any of that new console. They're making no money on it. And when they finally do pull the trigger there'll be a rush of hardware sales. Switch sold ~1.4mill units in that first week. What the exchange rate is like around launch? It won't be insignificant to Nintendo
But to get back to my point, how that launch impacts OG Switch sales? I think people are VASTLY overestimating how much that matters. I don't see how it matters that much at all. Switch will keep selling ok even after Switch 2 is revealed and out I suspect. And even if it doesn't it's nowhere near as important and certainly won't be as dramatic a shift for Nintendo's balance sheets as whether or not the Switch 2 does well
They will, and should, do anything to make Switch 2 launch well. That's the only thing that matters
@Grumblevolcano
Yeah, I can definitely see that. It's just not quite as necessary as it was for Switch when they announced "NX" two full years before launch. Which.... is something that doesn't really need to be said because I think we can all agree we're far closer than two years from launch
I don't necessarily disagree but I would say I think people seriously overestimate the supposed risk to the current Switch. Or the extent that it would even matter assuming decent cross generational support.
But to get back to my point, how that launch impacts OG Switch sales? I think people are VASTLY overestimating how much that matters. I don't see how it matters that much at all. Switch will keep selling ok even after Switch 2 is revealed and out I suspect. And even if it doesn't it's nowhere near as important and certainly won't be as dramatic a shift for Nintendo's balance sheets as whether or not the Switch 2 does well
They will, and should, do anything to make Switch 2 launch well. That's the only thing that matters
Nintendo needs to hedge their bets because they don't know exactly how the Switch 2 would be received. We all know that not all of their ideas have been winners, there's a possibility the Switch 2 might fall into that category depending on the concept. The one scenario they have to avoid is that the Switch sales start to decline and the Switch 2 doesn't take off. THAT'S what they're going to be planning the Switch 2 launch around.
I fully expect the hype cycle to be short, it's already fairly short given we're likely already within a year and know nothing. But I'd be very surprised if we don't hear something before August at the latest
So you agree that the hype cycle is shorter, but if it followed this schedule, we'd know more about the console for longer? This is practically a contradiction.
The cycle from full reveal to release is the part that matters the most. Before then it's all purely rumor and speculation and dealing in hypotheticals, I'm sure they do like that but depending on how right or wrong the fans are that's volatile. When they've actually confirmed what the console is, that's when the hype cycle REALLY starts. That's when they're ready to actually market the thing, when they want the information on this console to start spreading to every corner of the earth. If they want a shorter hype cycle (which would make sense if it is a next gen Switch as we expect, as most people would already have a good idea of what the console is like and they just need to focus on marketing the improvements), then the time between full reveal and release needs to be the same or shorter as well.
Yeah, I can definitely see that. It's just not quite as necessary as it was for Switch when they announced "NX" two full years before launch. Which.... is something that doesn't really need to be said because I think we can all agree we're far closer than two years from launch
Most of the fanbase and analysts agree, but we don't know that for certain. Nintendo needs to CONFIRM for their investors whether or not hardware is coming in the next fiscal year or if they're planning on sticking with the Switch for longer than we expect so that their investors can make an informed decision based on fact and not just rumors and speculation. That's the point of a codename reveal. It's for when they need to communicate to investors when they're ready to move on soon but they're not quite ready to show the full concept.
Thinking about it some more, there is one part of the reveal cycle that I could see being different from the Switch. I don't think they're going to wait until January for the presentation, that already felt way too late for the Switch (although it ended up not mattering) and in this case the circumstances are different enough that it could hurt them if they repeat it. Back in 2016, no one really had any expectations for the Holiday. Nintendo was pretty much bottoming out, they didn't have much success in hardware sales (they had some with the 3DS but even that was lower than many of their past handhelds), so it was more okay for them to coast just on the Switch's core concept through the Holiday, that already was so refreshing. Now? Not so much. The Switch is more successful, it just hasn't had games lately. Games are what we need most right now. So if they have little for the Holiday as I expect, they can't just sit out the Holiday without at least giving us a glimpse into what games are coming shortly after. At the very least they'll want pre-orders for the Switch 2 and its games, or for at least to convince gamers to save up for the Switch 2 instead of splurging on their competition. So I do think we'll be seeing a Switch 2 presentation similar to the January presentation for the Switch, but this time during the Fall in place of the typical September Direct (not necessarily in September, but I do think we'll be getting this and not getting a full September Direct).
@Bolt_Strike
Again, the hype cycle is already short. At this point in any of Nintendo's previous consoles we had already seen the hardware and had been told some of the key launch games. The Wii was first mentioned in 2004, shown at E3 2005 and had the controller unveiled at TGS in 2005. Wii U was confirmed to exist in early 2011 before being unveiled at E3 2011. 3DS was announced in early 2010 and property revealed at E3 2010. And Switch was confirmed in early 2015 with confirmation of BotW being a launch title in 2016 and a full reveal that October
We are undoubtedly in a tighter full timeline than any of these. We're likely less than a year out and Nintendo hasn't even confirmed it exists. It's shorter. No disputing this
But the idea that it therefore will be compressed to the point where we hear nothing at all this year for the sake of saving holiday Switch sales is quite a leap. Again, even with your ramblings here, we both agree that how the Switch 2 lands is FAR more important than how the Switch tapers out
Again, the hype cycle is already short. At this point in any of Nintendo's previous consoles we had already seen the hardware and had been told some of the key launch games. The Wii was first mentioned in 2004, shown at E3 2005 and had the controller unveiled at TGS in 2005. Wii U was confirmed to exist in early 2011 before being unveiled at E3 2011. 3DS was announced in early 2010 and property revealed at E3 2010. And Switch was confirmed in early 2015 with confirmation of BotW being a launch title in 2016 and a full reveal that October
We are undoubtedly in a tighter full timeline than any of these. We're likely less than a year out and Nintendo hasn't even confirmed it exists. It's shorter. No disputing this
Again, you're putting too much stock in the codename phase being part of the "hype cycle". The codename phase is far less significant to the marketing and hype than the reveal phase and IDK why you're obsessing over it so much. During the codename phase they're not really giving any concrete information on the console, just saying that some form of new hardware is coming. Which helps to keep people from jumping ship before the end of the generation but doesn't really do anything to sell people on buying the new device. The reveal phase, where we actually know things such as specs, features, price, and launch lineup, that's far more important to generating hype and marketing. And in that area, the Switch is actually an outlier as well. Notice all of the other console reveals were a year or more ahead of the release. The Switch's October reveal was a mere 5 months, by far the shortest yet. That implies that the market position of the incumbent console isn't why the hype cycles are getting shorter, that seems to be more due to factors such as the diminished (and now fully extinguished) relevance of E3 and the desire to keep their cards closer to their chest for longer (possibly to avoid competitors planning around them).
Side note, how do you know that we're less than a year out? And I mean KNOW, as in 100% confirmed fact, not 99% likelihood. We do not, so you shouldn't really be talking in absolutisms such as "no dispute". It doesn't reflect well on you if the unthinkable happens and we are in fact sitting here a year from now and there's still no Switch successor out yet (doubly so if it isn't because of a delay, it's just because Nintendo didn't agree with the rest of the industry that a Switch successor was needed this soon).
But the idea that it therefore will be compressed to the point where we hear nothing at all this year for the sake of saving holiday Switch sales is quite a leap. Again, even with your ramblings here, we both agree that how the Switch 2 lands is FAR more important than how the Switch tapers out
It's not about saving holiday sales as much as a smooth transition and a contingency plan. They want the momentum from the Switch to continue on to the Switch 2 instead of pulling the plug on the Switch early, if the Switch is still succeeding then in an emergency situation where the Switch 2 isn't selling like they want they have the Switch to fall back on while they go back to the drawing board. The only thing that should be slowing the Switch down is the success of the Switch 2.
To be fair, Nintendo is sitting on 11 billion in cash and no debts. They are definitely ready for emergency contingencies if the next console has an issue.
Got a little worried about the fate of a Direct soon when I first saw that an Endless Ocean trailer had rolled out, but it was just around 4 minutes of showcasing footage with no voiceover, only featuring the audio from the game. I still wouldn't bank on one for this month anymore, since the rumored Indie World still hasn't materialized, but they still need to explain more about Luminous's gameplay loop, and since Nintendo's been on a roll with demos lately, I imagine they'll want to put one out, especially because it's a revival of a relatively niche IP (one of very few Nintendo IPs to not get anything in Smash, even). I'd at least check it out.
@Bolt_Strike
I think he's just (safely) assuming what pretty much all of us are assuming: The Switch successor is coming out within a year. It just is. Anything longer than next Spring is just bonkers. I mean... come on. Reputable sources, not just leakers, have backed the reporting that the launch was delayed until 2025. We're talking mainstream operations like Bloomberg and CNBC along with the big gaming operations like IGN and Polygon all saying the same thing: There comes a point when you're just plugging your ears willfully if you don't want to admit this thing is coming out in 2025.
@rallydefault I'm not saying it won't come out in 2025 (I think it probably will), but some of these same sources also insisted it was coming in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024...
@Bolt_Strike
My original response that set us on this path was in response to your post where you, correctly, pointed out that the Switch didn't have a full reveal until just over 4 months before release. All I was saying was that while that's technically true it's a bit apples and oranges. The NX announcement was well before then and we haven't even had that for "Switch 2" yet. And I don't remember the exact date but we definitely knew before E3 2016 that BotW was going to be on Switch also. Which hasn't happened for Switch 2 yet either
And sure, you can argue the point that we don't know the date yet so we can't tell from this side of the timeline whether or not the announcement schedule is compressed or not. It could in theory end up being a fairly typical cycle with an announcement imminently for a release in late 2025. It's possible. It's just not very likely. In any case, I think we can be super confident that the Switch 2 reveal is not a parallel of the Switch reveal. The Switch isn't the Wii U and 3DS, the Switch 2 is not NX, the transition won't be the same, the strategy won't be the same. We don't know much but we do know this. With a lot of confidence. Lock this in
The other wrinkle in the crankyness that has unfurled onto this thread is the bit about the reveal of the codename and how much it matters or not. How much a full reveal will impact the sales of the Switch itself. But again, I'm not particularly fussed about any predictions of when the codename comes out. I don't think the reveal of the codename matters. What I'm saying is that I think people are putting WAY too much weight on this idea that Nintendo would be super concerned about hurting Switch sales closing in on 8 years into the console's life with ~140mill units sold and a new console that probably has not just backwards compatibility but a fairly significant library of "cross-gen" titles
People are putting out this idea of teasing out a codename to quiet investors while keeping the masses happily buying Switch consoles deep into 2024. I think people are seriously overestimating how much OG Switch hardware sales matter to Nintendo going forward. What matters is how well the Switch 2 launches. Doubly so if it also plays original Switch games. I can't see them putting the Switch 2 launch in a tighter spot for the sake of holiday Switch sales
@dmcc0
The "people have been saying it's coming every year since ___" bit is a bit of a meme at this point. I'd argue there were only really ever two timelines that have been put out with much weight behind them. The Switch Pro timeline which was for September/October 2021 and ended up morphing somewhat into Switch OLED. Still not clear how much of that was OLED but I think it's fair to say it was mostly wrong
The second one was fairly recently when people were talking late 2024 before it fairly quickly slid to early 2025. Which is more or less where the general consensus is now. It is still early 2024 so we have no idea if this one is on the money or not yet. But at this point it's the best we have and, frankly, there's a lot of smoke this time around
Everything else is just people yammering around on forums and youtube vids. Admittedly a non-trivial amount of it from yours truly. Honestly most of the concrete talk has been around the hardware not the timeline. The hardware is the thing that actually leaked around 2022 and that's been most of what has fuelled a lot of the discussion. When it leaked there was no leak or sources saying dates
I don't know why people think a Switch 2 so late is bonkers. Again, I can only go by Japanese sales because they are the most transparent) but the PS4 was sitting on about 1.3M units prior to the PS5 launching. The Switch is currently on track for above 3M this year. The need for alarm is clearly manufactured by Youtubers hoping they get something new to talk about (easy 'content') and make their channels look shinier (again, easy 'content'). It simply doesn't reflect the state of the forecasts. It's currently number one in Japan, titles as 'niche' as Princess Peach hit number one. But to nurture this narrative that Nintendo desperately need a Switch because it's outstayed it's welcome is bonkers to me. They have a userbase approaching 150M. It's not surprising they have a game a month so far this year (and I've seen people suggest it's a quiet year.)
I dunno. I wouldn't be surprised if there was no delay and this is all part of Nintendo's 10 year life cycle road map (which they were transparent enough to say a couple of years ago!) After all the years of hyping a pro / 2 model and practically self willing an announcement last month...it just sounds like a get out of jail card to me for many of these rumour mills. (And let's face it, there is only one that everyone echoes really lol. - Pyoro is in another league of his own like 3D Mario games.)
And yeah, I get there will be some people quick to say that's just Japan and has the momentum in the West. And I'll agree...but look how businesses are struggling trying to maintain that. It's not like Switch has disappeared lol. And the more AAA titles that release, the more "proven third party titles" we'll get for the next hardware. Sony and Microsoft let the third party AAA tail wag the dog decades ago. Look at how they fought over Activision. Nintendo don't let that happen and it is increasingly infuriating hearing folk discuss how they should (it not only would be disasterous for Nintendo, but it also betrays their Playstation bias.)
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