Topic: Next Nintendo Direct?

@PikaPhantom If Switch 2 releases after March 2025, they could pull a trick where a July 2024 game is announced in May 2024 and then they have the usual general Direct in June 2024 (probably late June like last year) being dedicated to Switch 1.

Could be just coincidence but I find it odd how all the reported changes like Switch 2 delay seemed to suddenly follow the whole Xbox situation where the Xbox community reacting very badly to rumours of Xbox 1st party exclusives releasing on PS5 resulted in Xbox business update getting moved forward.

@skywake I guess those two examples have been the most prominent, but there have certainly been plenty of rumours and speculation since the initial Switch Pro rumours, which I remember Bloomberg in particular, were certain it was coming, and when it didn't it was quickly forgotten or there were rumours it was cancelled or coming the following year etc.

At this point with all the apparent hardware leaks it feels like there's a lot of speculation built-up around an announcement at every 'next' Direct. Admittedly that's probably more down to forums, 'leakers' etc than any mainstream reporting, but it still exists. Nintendo said at the last investor meeting that there would be no new hardware in the financial year, so that cooled it a bit, but then everyone assumed/speculated a Feb24 announcement in the 'usual' Direct slot and late '24 release. When that didn't happen it was quickly reported as being 'delayed' to 2025 - I'm not sure how you delay something that hasn't even been announced yet? I guess the speculation will die down a bit at least until the next investor meeting as the 2025 delay claim seems to have been accepted as fact by the general media at least. If they repeat the "no new hardware this financial year" that will 'confirm' a 2025 release for some and the anticipation for an announcement around Feb 2025 will go through the roof again. My point was more that it isn't just randoms on the internet that are reporting these things as fact, but seemingly 'trusted' non-gaming media as well. They've got history when it comes to getting these things wrong just as much as the leakers and YouTubers do.

@GrailUK Recall that Nintendo stock dropped significantly in the Tokyo Stock Exchange the second the rumour of a 3 month delay hit. So even if Switch is selling well in Japan, their financials will be hurt by more delays. I imagine if they said there wasn't new hardware coming out this fiscal year during the May financial meeting, the stocks would go down pretty massively and Japanese investors would not be happy.

@FishyS The thing folk miss with Nintendo is, they are so cash rich, they don't really have to kowtow to investors as much. If they did, then the Wii U might have had a rethink lol. Remember kids, share prices can go down as well as up. Most Western companies operate in huge amounts of debt, and it's much more key to their operating strategy. Now I'm no Michael Pachter, and I'm not saying that means they would go out of their way to make investors unhappy (that would be a knee jerk reaction if ever) but Nintendo have the freedom to do what they want and take risks, despite the West begging for them to be more predictable like Sony and Microsoft. Remember, they steer on different waters because they can't compete with spec races. Anyone foolish enough to invest on the premise that they can influence them to become more like Sony / Microsoft is throwing their money away. I think most are just hoping they strike gold with a new gameplay idea.

@FishyS @GrailUK I think last year showed there’s easy workarounds like it went from “Where’s new hardware?” to “Wow, a Zelda movie!”.

@Grumblevolcano Indeed. Nintendo are trading as there own seperate entity (like everyone else really, just some are in more direct competition than others.).

What ever happened to that so called investment Nintendo put into Forever Entertainment? Did we ever hear anything from that?

@FragRed Nope, unless the Switch timed exclusivity of the Front Mission remakes has something to do with it. Considering they rarely put out anything that doesn't get tepid reception, I kind of get the feeling that if anything was in the works with Nintendo IP, they weren't satisfied with the quality at all

@FragRed That's a very good question and I wondered that myself the last couple of Directs. I believe not. Half of me hopes nothing came of it lol. But, if this year is going to be a remake year, then they may be someone bringing another ip back.

@PikaPhantom @GrailUK It was such a bizarre thing for Nintendo to make a big noise about, which is the only reason I remember it ever happening. I’m getting the feeling Nintendo has quietly axed whatever it was in development and hopes everyone will forget it ever happened.

@FragRed It's coming up to 3 years since this news. My money would be on a Starfox (snes) remake using the Panzer Dragoon engine. It would take skill not to bring that up to date. (It's a bloody good job I'm not a betting man!) But it's an ip they seem happy to give to other folk to have a punt on. And if Nintendo are closely involved with direction, then who knows.

@GrailUK There's actually evidence Nintendo is working on a new Star Fox being made in-house. Nintendo Switch Sports has some unused internal data referring to Star Fox elements like the Wolfen (this wouldn't be the first time leftovers leaked something like that - Kirby Fighters 2 had some internal data tied to "Kirby3D" if I remember correctly, which tipped us off that the next entry would be 3D). They've also recently applied for brand new trademarks for the series instead of renewals (at the same time as new ones for Princess Peach, incidentally).

@PikaPhantom Oh! Honestly, the more ip they can get out there while their profile is at an all time high, the better I reckon.

@dmcc0
That's such a flawed way of reasoning, though, as @skywake already pointed out to you. You can say that for almost anything and anybody. It's just not a reasonable way to approach a serious discussion.

The other problem with what you're saying is that when the reputable, big news companies like Bloomberg were reporting on a Switch Pro back in 2020-2021, they were probably right to some degree that Nintendo was trying to put out new hardware, but the pandemic messed with all of those plans and set everything back quite a bit. We got the OLED instead, and time will tell us how much of the Pro was actually true.

And finally, if you want to lump Twitter leakers in with this discussion, I would argue you're not giving this debate a rational ground to begin with. I don't get my reporting from social media, I get my rumors from social media. There's a big difference, and the latter shouldn't be used as "proof" of any sort of rational counterargument.

@GrailUK The 'they have tons of cash so don't need to worry about stocks' argument just as easily applies to 'they have tons of cash so who cares if Switch is still selling well'. 😛

I still think it is at least slightly plausible that instead of the Switch 2 we are all expecting, Nintendo will pull out something weird so is stocking up on cash just in case they run into another Wii U situation.

Virtual Boy Pro U Attach anyone?

@rallydefault we're discussing the possible release of games console, so hardly a serious subject! It's fun to read the speculation and I find it quite interesting how easy it is for the rumours to be presented as 'fact'. I wasn't really 'lumping' anyone in with the discussion though and I don't get either rumours or reporting from social media - this forum is about as close to social media as I get, but I've seen threads on here where someone has made an educated guess as to what they think might appear at a direct, and a few days later in another thread someone mentions the same game "I've heard rumours about...".

I saw loads of articles on the recent speculation of a late '24 release and they were all quoting each other "a report by.....suggests a late 24 release..." and I don't recall any of them pointing to an actual source - even it was all "rumours suggest.." etc. it's the same with recent "delayed to 2025" reporting. Even the more reputable outlets are using twitter as a source for all sorts of news, so it wouldn't surprise me if they are using it as a source for gaming news as well. You might not get your reporting from social media, but some of them do.

@FishyS Holograms are the future!

@rallydefault You know what the old saying is about assumptions. Again, no debate that it's highly likely, but there's a difference between highly likely and confirmed. "Bonkers" is still a mathematical possibility until Nintendo comes out and says when the thing is coming. Until we get that confirmation, we shouldn't really be saying that it will absolutely, definitely, positively be coming in 2025, because that's incorrect.

While true, I don't think this difference is significant because again, the reveal phase is what matters most.

I agree, and beyond the likelihood that the existence of next gen hardware will be confirmed much later than it has in the past, as I mentioned above I believe they won't wait until January this time to have a presentation or reveal key aspects of the console such as the price and launch lineup. My reasoning for thinking the June reveal is incorrect go much farther than "the Switch did it". I do think the reveal cycle is going to be far closer to the Switch than other past consoles, but repeating the Switch's reveal cycle is not the sole reason for a Fall reveal, a Fall reveal just makes more sense under the current conditions.

First of all, Nintendo seems to have nothing of significance planned for this Fall. They probably don't have nothing, but it's very telling that they opted not to have a full February Direct and instead only did a Partner Showcase. If there were a big Holiday title for this year that is most likely when we would've heard about it. Odds are they just have remakes/remasters and smaller titles until the Switch 2 launch (which makes sense because the Holiday was originally planned to be the launch, so they probably expected these smaller games to only last the first half of the year and then the second half of the year would focus on big Switch 2 launch titles), so that leaves a giant dead spot during the Holiday. If they were to blow their load in June like the rumors suggest, Nintendo would likely be forgotten altogether during the Holiday as other companies have actual games to sell. But if they wait until Fall, Nintendo can steal that attention away and keep the Switch 2 fresher in people's minds during the Holiday and that would better convince people to save their money for or preorder the Switch 2 and its launch games instead of buying games from their competitors. If they need to have a dead spot in their marketing/release pipeline, Summer would be much better than Fall/Holiday.

Second, Nintendo typically has a major Direct in September so having a big Switch 2 reveal in place of that would be more convenient for their marketing schedules.

Lastly, and related to my first point, Nintendo's biggest problem right now isn't hardware. It's software. The Switch is selling just fine for now, there's a few niggling issues with third parties but for the most part there's no immediate urgency for stronger hardware for the sake of stronger hardware (medium and long term, yes, but short term the Switch is still selling well and as the Switch could probably continue to sell well for at least another year or two). The problem is that Nintendo hasn't had a lot of big games lately, and that's what people are most waiting for. And in a situation like this one where they can't do much about having big games because development has likely shifted to next gen, the next best thing to releasing big games is revealing big games. Revealing the console in June when they're probably not going to be ready to show off the games (because they're all 9+ months away, and Nintendo doesn't typically have much to show that far out) is relatively pointless in the current situation. You're showing off a device that maybe might do some cool stuff, but without the games to show them off it's going to feel like a glorified paperweight. There's no practical applications being shown off. They're going to want to align the reveal of both hardware AND software this time and past patterns have shown software mostly isn't ready until about 6 months away.

There's a bit of a misconception here and I think this is probably my fault for confusing you. To be clear, I do not think the codename is that important. It's just what Nintendo is going to put out for the time being to communicate that they're setting things in motion and keep people from abandoning them in droves. The main event is going to be the full reveal.

As for the impact on OG hardware sales, BC and cross-gen are great things but they're not going to help keep OG Switch hardware sales up. They're going to help keep OG Switch GAME sales up. Doubly so if you're focusing on the hardware more than the games. The reveal of new hardware spreading around every corner of the internet and social media is inevitably going to cause people that were considering buying an OG Switch to hold off, so you're already shooting yourself in the foot for this Holiday. And then if they don't like what they see from the Switch 2? Then you didn't get them to convert to Switch 2, you pushed them away from the Switch ENTIRELY. They need to strategically time the reveal so that the Switch keeps selling before they're ready to reveal and then when they do there's immediate interest in the Switch 2 and desire to buy it and its games. And a June reveal just doesn't seem like it's it.

You're putting too much stock in lifetime sales, there are other factors involved here. Yes it's sold close to 150 million, but how many of those 150 million are still playing now? And how many would still be playing in a year or two? That success can't last forever, and Nintendo should know that. They've seen the same thing happen with the Wii and if they're smart, they won't wait too long to release their successor and see Switch sales totally collapse. And there is one big reason (besides the general feeling of "this console is old") to think that sales could collapse, it's because the competition is copying them. There's the Steam Deck which is a direct competitor, mobile whose hardware is getting more powerful and can make the Switch seem less appealing as a handheld, Microsoft and Sony are pushing for stronger and stronger hardware and now are rumored to be dabbling in handheld. The Switch may lose its niche in the next year or two because there's too many other devices that are too close to what Nintendo is currently doing, so now would be the ideal time to make their next move.

That 10 year cycle might not actually mean 10 years of the Switch being the primary console on the market. No gaming console has lasted that long and with the factors I've mentioned, I don't see even the Switch being an exception. Nintendo has not said anything that directly deconfirms a successor launching next year (saying vague statements that don't deconfirm anything is PR 101). I could see 10 years meaning the Switch sticks around for a few years getting cross gen games like the 3DS did in the early years of the Switch, but I highly doubt we're going to be waiting until 2027 for the Switch's successor.

Well there's third parties, but it seems like even the first parties might be running into limitations on what they can do with the Switch's hardware. We've seen this with some of the performance niggles some recent first party games have suffered. Additionally, they may just be running out of creative gameplay ideas for what to do with the current hardware and want the new hardware gimmick to open up new ideas for them. I don't think it's just the third parties pushing for it now, first parties feel ready to move on as well.

From the investor side of things, this. If Nintendo announces that the Switch is going to be the primary console for the foreseeable future and there's no new hardware announced or coming in the next fiscal year, Nintendo's stock is going to plummet. Meanwhile from the gamer side, no games and near radio silence on major new games in the next 6+ months is going to encourage them to look to Nintendo's competition. It's going to be a major dropoff in userbase if they don't say anything on new hardware in the next 6 months or so.

The 770s of “Next Nintendo Direct” will forever be remembered for its generous amount of Tl;dr’s

@Bolt_Strike
Honestly I agree with the vast majority of your response so I'm not going to labour the point. But I will respond to this bit in particular just to highlight a miscommunication here:

Yes. 100%. A new console launch would put a handbrake on hardware sales as people put a handbrake on buying Switch hardware waiting for Switch 2. But as I was saying, with ~140mill consoles out there and closing in on 8 years on the market? Hardware sales are not really a huge concern. Software sales are the big game here and, as you said, if there's backwards compatibility and cross-buy implemented well and well communicated? I don't think there'll be much of a dip on Switch software sales post-announcement. If anything there'll be a boost in Switch software sales post-launch

The problem I have with the very, very short lead is that it doesn't give much time to communicate these things. People will fill in the gaps themselves. They'll fill it in with what will be unfavourable assumptions. They'll decide that rather than waiting for a Switch 2 that will seemingly never come they'll grab a PS5 or Steam Deck or maybe by years end an XBox Portable. To be clear, I don't think an announcement as late as even October falls into that category because the bulk of sales are in November/December. But if they drag it as far out as January next year? I think at that point they're protecting Switch hardware sales, which at this point don't really matter, at the expense of a better Switch 2 launch

My guess at the timeline
A very general guess. It's impossible to say but I think there are some boundaries that do exist. I think they do have to say something at their investor meeting in May. That could be as little as just a confirmation of existence and a timeframe. There could be a full on April Direct reveal showing it off but, frankly, I'm with you here and I think if this thing truly is Q1 2025 now is way too early for that. I'm not ruling it out but I think it's unlikely

The other boundary that exists is Black Friday. I think they need to announce Switch 2, in the proper announcement sense, before people start making their big purchasing decisions for this year. They want little Jimmy to be saying to their parents that they want to wait for Switch 2, they don't want little Jimmy to be talking about the PS5 Pro. They're not selling over the holidays but they are selling holiday-adjacent, they want Switch 2 to be in people's minds over that period

The last bounding box is the hardest one to guess because it depends on when the hardware actually releases. My gut-feel is that you do a proper reveal ~6 months before launch and you can't really get that much tighter. Yes, the Switch was marginally tighter but E3 2016 was basically just used as platform for the big Switch launch title. But the problem we have is..... when will it launch? If it's March/April then they could push it as far out as October and still have a fair gap there. If it's as early as January then something like a July reveal makes more sense

All this is to say.... your guess is a September full reveal with the Investor meeting in May being nothing more than just confirmation? That tracks. That's a middle of the bell-curve prediction I think. I'm just.... still open to the possibility of something as early as June with the investor meeting giving us maybe as much as an intended date. And my other feeling is that if they refuse to mention Switch 2 until very late in the year these Nintendo Directs are going to get very empty very fast