Topic: Mario Kart 8 Deluxe

Chances of getting dlc tracks in online races (if all tracks weighted equally for online randomizer)
Wave 1 dlc tracks = 14% of 56 total tracks
Wave 1+2 = 25% of 64 tracks
Wave 1+2+3 = 33% of 72 tracks
Wave 1+2+3+4 = 40% of 80 tracks
Wave 1+2+3+4+5 = 45% of 88 tracks
Wave 1+2+3+4+5+6 = 50% of 96 tracks

Ok one more post about this leak from me: If I had to pick the final remaining stages for the games that I care about, I would go:

@StarPoint Following up a port of an old game with all old courses with DLC 5 years later that consists of more old courses is the last thing we needed. Mario Kart is in desperate need of new content, we basically (there is Tour, but that's 90% old content too) haven't had any in 8 years. 8 YEARS!!! Usually there's only a 3 year gap in between new and original entries, and even counting 8D separately, we still should've had MK9 in 2020 going by that pattern. Previously the longest gap was 6 years between 64 and Super Circuit, we're past that now. So we're definitely in an extraordinarily long and unprecedented drought for the series as a result of them not wanting to put MK9 on Switch. DLC at this point, especially DLC that's just recycling old content, just doesn't cut it when you put everything in perspective.

If they didn't want to make Mario Kart 9 yet, there were better alternatives to hold us over, such as creating a new spinoff/subseries that's different enough not to cannibalize MK8D (a Diddy Kong Racing/Forza Horizons would've been a good choice for that) or a new mode of some kind that gives us a glimpse into what MK9 might be like (similar to what Bowser's Fury is for 3D Mario). Again, something new that experiments with new mechanics and covers new tracks instead of the same tired old tracks we've been playing for the last 5-8 years. I mean, I guess it's better than nothing, but that's probably the only thing that this is actually better than.

This is what I'm expecting based on the prefix datamine.

Rock Cup: London Loop, Luigi's Mansion, Cheep Cheep Island, Rock Rock Mountain
Moon Cup: Vancouver Velocity, Mushroom City, Merry Mountain, 3DS Rainbow Road
Fruit Cup: Amsterdam Drift, Koopa Cape, Airship Fortress, New Nitro Track
Boomerang Cup: Singapore Speedway, Daisy Cruiser, Yoshi Desert, Berlin Byways
Feather Cup: Los Angeles Laps, Toad's Factory, Sunset Wilds, Bangkok Rush
Cherry Cup: Unreleased City Track, Dino Dino Jungle, Vanilla Lake 1 or 2, New Nitro Track
Acorn Cup: Unreleased City Track, Maple Treeway, 3DS Bowser's Castle, New Nitro Track
Spiny Cup: Unreleased City Track, Waluigi Stadium, New Nitro Track, Wii Rainbow Road

Obviously positions of the tracks are mostly uncertainties except for a few that I touch on later but generally feel good about the guesses.

I think Rio and Cairo are very likely city tracks to still come to Tour to represent South America and Africa, respectively. Not sure what another possible city could be. Maybe Beijing or Mexico City.

Datamines have suggested GBA Yoshi Desert and GCN Waluigi Stadium are coming to Tour.

Given that each wave so far has a track that has not been remade previously, Mushroom City and Yoshi Desert fit this requirement. I could see Toad's Factory as another not previously remade track. But that means cutting one of Koopa Cape, Maple Treeeay, or DK Summit. DK Summit is less iconic than the other two so I'm cutting it. I think Wave 6 will have two nitros to end on a high note, though.

I put almost all question marks as new nitros. I did add 3DS Bowser's Castle, though, because it would make sense here since MK8 Deluxe has no retro Bowser's Castles.

Vanilla Lake and Dino Dino Jungle are in the Coconut Mall ad. Rock Rock Mountain in the Rock Cup and 3DS Rainbow Road in the Moom Cup and to end the year on a beloved track make sense. Wii Rainbow Road will be a great sendoff to the DLC.

In contrast, these are the not so good predictions I made before Wave 2 when I did not believe the data mine: https://youtu.be/UTz1gmA1C-0

I do agree that Nintendo's disinterest in putting out a single new racing game has been a bit disappointing and kinda weird.

That being said, there is something worse than nothing, its called free to play mobile games! That's where some of these tracks were stuck on, so that alone makes this a noble decision (that and its actually cheap, compared to average Nintendo pricing). I mean, these tracks are new to me, since why the **** would I want Mario Kart on my phone? And I genuinely don't think its an excuse to not have a new racing game, since I doubt this DLC has a full HD video game team behind it, to say the least.

2003: Nintendo releases Kirby Air Ride, F Zero GX and Mario Kart: Double Dash! in a few months (arguably 1080 Avalanche too)
2017 - 2022: Mario Kart 8 again and more stuff in Mario Kart 8. Also a real toy thing...that's also Mario Kart.

I think there's a reasonable middle ground, Nintendo.

@Bolt_Strike The gap between 64 and Super Circuit was around 4.5 years (December 1996 - July 2001 for Japan and similar gaps for the other regions), not 6 years. The gap between those 2 games were still the longest gap though (close 2nd was between SMK and 64).

@Grumblevolcano Huh, I thought Super Circuit was 2002, must've misread. Anyway, even worse. This is by far the longest drought in Mario Kart history.

@kkslider5552000 Tour actually isn't that bad. The controls are a bit simplistic and limited, but otherwise it works fine as a Mario Kart game. Meanwhile, it actually does a lot of things to the gameplay and mechanics that I wish we'd have seen on the Switch. It has an actual shop to by characters and karts instead of a dumb system where you unlock a random kart after a particular coin total. The tracks all have R, T, and R/T variants which feel like entirely new courses. Special items and missions are back. You can perform frenzies. There's a score system which changes how you race (not sure I like this as being the primary method of competing, but this would be great as an alternate Score Attack mode or something). This is the kind of stuff I would've loved to see on a Mario Kart 9 around this time (along with a wave of new, full featured courses designed around the Switch instead of the barebones Tour tracks that feel like they belong in a SMK remake instead of a proper MK9). But nope, they had to take some of the worst aspects from Tour for this DLC.

I haven't seen it myself (and don't plan on doing so in the slightest) but I'd just like you to answer a question I have: is Double Dash getting representation? We haven't had a single GCN track so far between the first 2 waves and I'm getting a bit antsy since those are some of my favourite tracks in the entire series so if you could confirm that for me, I'd greatly appreciate it!

@Fizza It does get representation, and I shall say you will probably be happy with the number once they're all out. I've been clamoring for more DD and Wii tracks myself, and I'll just say that I was pretty happy when I saw this list.

The Japan trailer kind of confirmed this but N64 Kalimari Desert has a different route each lap including the Kalimari Desert 2 Lap 2 layout from Tour where you drive on the train tracks.

@Grumblevolcano I remember when I played the track for the first time in 7, I always wanted to drive through that section so this pleases me immensely. I really hope other retro tracks that were modified in Tour keep their modification when they come over to 8 Deluxe because it can make it so much more exciting to revisit them when they aren't quite the same (kind of like Choco Mountain and Shroom Ridge from the first wave).

@Grumblevolcano So how many laps does it have? I hope it isn't 2 instead of the standard 3..

@vio Given what we've seen in the trailer, I'd guess 3 laps. Something like:

• Lap 1 - Normal Kalimari Desert route
• Lap 2 - Kalimari Desert 2 lap 1
• Lap 3 - Kalimari Desert 2 lap 2

I called Mushroom Gorge coming back literal months ago so let's see if my clairvoyance comes into effect once again. Here's my prediction for the upcoming tracks in Wave 3:

Rock Cup

• Mario Circuit (DS)
• Dino Dino Jungle (GCN)
• Ghost Valley 2 (SNES)
• Maple Treeway (Wii)

Moon Cup

• Daisy Circuit (Wii)
• Luigi's Mansion (DS)
• Bowser's Castle (7)
• Rainbow Road (Super Circuit)

I think, since it's the halfway point of the entire Pass, they'll put in a Bowser's Castle and Rainbow Road from previous games to cap it off and thus, I went for the two I thought were most likely/reasonable at this point in time (I will be SHOCKED if Super Circuit's Rainbow Road doesn't get in). The rest were either thematic to the cup, ones that are likely to come back in some way, shape or form and ones I personally want to see return (I loved Daisy Circuit so I hope that one comes back especially).

I had never realised Wario Stadium & Waluigi Pinball had the exact same music all this time. Kind of disappointing, lol

List of tracks prior to MK8 with the same music:

• SNES Mario Circuit 1-4
• SNES Donut Plains 1-3
• SNES Ghost Valley 1-3
• SNES Bowser Castle 1-3
• SNES Choco Island 1-2
• SNES Koopa Beach 1-2
• SNES Vanilla Lake 1-2
• N64 Luigi Raceway + Mario Raceway + Wario Stadium + Royal Raceway
• N64 Moo Moo Farm + Yoshi Valley
• N64 Frappe Snowland + Sherbet Land
• GBA Peach Circuit + Mario Circuit + Luigi Circuit
• GBA Shy Guy Beach + Cheep Cheep Island
• GBA Riverside Park + Lakeside Park
• GBA Bowser Castle 1-4
• GBA Boo Lake + Broken Pier
• GCN Luigi Circuit + Mario Circuit + Yoshi Circuit
• GCN Peach Beach + Daisy Cruiser
• GCN Mushroom Bridge + Mushroom City
• GCN Waluigi Stadium + Wario Colosseum
• GCN DK Mountain + Dino Dino Jungle
• DS Figure 8 Circuit + Mario Circuit
• DS Waluigi Pinball + Wario Stadium
• Wii Luigi Circuit + Mario Circuit
• 3DS Toad Circuit + Mario Circuit (Koopa City is a remix)
• 3DS Wuhu Island Loop + Wuhu Mountain Loop

Is there any word on what time Wave 2 will drop? I just checked Nintendo's maintenance site and there is a "distribution of update data" scheduled from 6:30 to 7:00pm tonight here in US Pacific Time! Curious indeed.. Could this possibly be the DLC? Doesn't seem right though as this is Tuesday August 2nd and Wave 2 is of course advertised to drop Thursday August 4th.. I'm really hoping, hoping it is a simultaneous worldwide release this time because if I'm not mistaken that means it would actually go live BEFORE the 4th here in the states if that happened. The way they released Wave 1 with different regions going live at different times and then having to also wait days after that for the new courses to finally enter the online rotation on top of that really blew!

@vio I was just looking that up myself, so far I have not seen any sort of release time. There is a chance that it could be released at the same time as the first wave was; midnight CET. https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2022/03/mario-kart-8-deluxe...

@vio The UK and US trailers say August 4th meanwhile the Japan trailer says August 5th so we're probably looking at mid to late afternoon UK time.

@TowaHerschel7 I'm here responding pretty late... but hey! We got the Wave 2 announced ready for Thursday right? I'm pretty hyped, always great racing with the friends I did see a couple screens of the courses, and I love the ones they picked!