Topic: *Switch 2: Nintendo’s Biggest launch ever?!*

Even with all of this, I feel like I’m already setting myself up for disappointment because I keep thinking the Switch 2 will bring back themes even though it’s possible they still only do black and white 😭😭😭

@MrCarlos46 Maybe they will have a third color.

@FishyS Which is why MP4 will be before

@rallydefault

It doesn't take a genius to realize that the single player aspect of Mario Kart 8 is barebones, and nobody can claim otherwise with a straight face. Of course if you love the game you can get dozens of hours from the single player, this doesn't mean it's good.

As for your question, Wii launched with Twilight Princess and Wii Sports, Wii U launched with New Super Mario Bros U and Nintendo Land, and Switch launched with 1-2 Switch and Breath of the Wild. Not all of those are huge, I just listed the first party games.

Another observation that can be made from this is that Nintendo always launches new consoles with a meaty and fleshed out single player game, not mostly multi-player games.

I don't think its out of the question that Mario Kart 9 will be the holiday tittle and they just showed it to create buzz and hype, as it is a huge franchise. And whatever single player first party tittle they have ready for release will be announced at the April direct, about 2 months before the release of the console, which I believe will happen on June.

@alexwolf
We're obviously not gonna see eye-to-eye on the single player, so hey, whatever floats your cynical boat lol

It is indeed entirely possible MK9 is actually a holiday title, but the reason I think it's the launch title is because nothing else fits: The next 3D Mario is almost certainly not ready for the Switch 2 launch because not even the rumor mills have whispered about it, nor is anything else in their single-player major franchises.

Frankly, nothing else makes sense, and Prime 4 is a Switch 1 game - they're not gonna use it as the launch title for the Switch 2.

@rallydefault

Having the next 3d mario ready could be the reason they delayed Switch 2 so much in the first place.

And we still have 4 months left until June, so I think that the new 3d mario being a launch tittle is a very possible scenario.

I would be interested to see Nintendo's stats on hours played in various modes, but if I were to guess, I would think couch co-op was king for mario kart, with various online modes a strong second. That said ... I'm hoping the new Mario Kart has a strong single player campaign which is more interesting than 'do all races'.

No one is questioning that there will be multiple first party games day-1. The 3 pairs you mentioned were all one big title and one 'showcase' title for new features (as I mentioned above Wii Sports evolved into a huge IP but still started as a showcase title). I would guess Switch 2 will have a game using the mouse-function on day-1.

Mario Kart is often a launch year game but has never been a day-1 game. If you had asked me in December I would have guessed that 3D Mario would be the launch game and Mario Kart would be the family holiday game. Technically that could still happen, but it would be a little odd if their reveal game wasn't a launch game. tbh, the 'launch window' is almost certainly going to be packed so what games are day-1 versus month 2 may not make a huge difference.

That third color will definitely be red because that’s Nintendo’s signature color. Still no UI music tho.

At the very least I wanna see animated backgrounds on Switch 2 like Xbox dynamic backgrounds.

@alexwolf
Yea, I just don’t see it.

I listen to rumor casts like every day, and nobody has the next 3D Mario as a launch title. I think it’s the big Holiday title, and honestly, it may not even be ready in 2025, as crazy as that seems.

I think Nintendo would have preferred to launch the Switch 2 in 2026, all told. I get the feeling they’re not quite where they want to be with everything.

@rallydefault I think they are exactly where they want to be. Not every generation gets 8 years to get the next one right lol. Switch 2 Direct is going to be amazing.

I don't necessarily disagree about the timeline but I also think the rumour mongers don't actually know anything. Nintendo may have leaked their hardware everywhere but they've been keeping a tight ship on Switch 2 games.

@FishyS
I used to say the same thing: these rumor people have no idea what they're talking about, they're just random people trying to get attention, etc. But if you pay close attention to that community, you start to see patterns, and more importantly, a few people who do seem to have some real knowledge and connections. If you only look at leaks around the major junctures, then yea, it's easy to write them off, but if you stay tuned-in all the time, you can see the consistencies.

@GrailUK
It is going to be amazing, I don't disagree. But I really, really think they wanted the Switch 2 in 2026. Yea, not every console gets 8 years, but they knew within the first 6 months of the Switch's release that they had a hit on their hands - the second-biggest console of all time, in fact (and maybe one day will be the best-selling, period). They probably thought they could hit the 8-year mark without too much drop off, but within the last 3 years they had to speed up their plans due to sales declining quicker than they predicted.

@rallydefault Hmm. Are you sure you aren't over exaggerating the decline. It seems pretty normal to me (I mean, 11 million consoles this year is not a drop off by any stretch lol.) But it's easy to see it as one due to the maybe heightened peaks of Covid. Probably needs adjusting in some way. I don't know, just a gut feeling that folk are just reacting to what they see without any context. Maybe (I'm the first to say I have no idea lol!)

@GrailUK
I mean, they had to downgrade their hardware sales forecast twice in the last fiscal year. By 12%, I believe.

Software forecast was also downgraded by nearly 7%.

And Furukawa said, "While we think sales of hardware and software are solid for the eighth year, we did not achieve our plan."

I don't know what more you'd want to support my point lol

Their "plan" was clearly about 12% and 7% better than what they got, which is a heck of a lot when you're dealing in tens and hundreds of billions in dollars and yen.

I just went and checked again, and not a single home console of Nintendo has ever launched without a massive single player first party game, all the way back to NES.

So, I really doubt this time will be the exception, further strengthening the possibility of a 3d Mario as a launch tittle.

As for your rumours argument, there have been plenty of first party releases that weren't rumored before, and rumours in general should be taken with a lot of grains of salt, so I wouldn't base anything solid around them.

@alexwolf
I wouldn't consider Super Mario Bros. U a "massive" game. Just being real. That series was on autopilot at that point.

I get your point, I really do. I'm just telling you: the next 3D Mario is not going to launch with Switch 2. It's just not. It doesn't make sense.

Massive is arguable...

3DS had Nintendogs + Cats which sold decently but not amazingly and didn't review all that well. It was also technically multiplayer though obviously not totally built around that. And it obviously wasn't a particularly long lasting Nintendo IP.

DS and GBA had Mario as their main release games, but they were both remakes so nowadays would definitely not be considered truly big games.

GameCube had Luigi's Mansion which was a success and is now a pretty big IP but was an untested spinoff at the time.

Nintendo definitely doesn't always lead with their biggest games.

Edit: I realized after the fact you specified home console, but I feel like that distinction is moot nowadays.

@rallydefault Well, that is a good point.

@FishyS

The distinction is definitely not a moot point. Portable systems always had games of smaller scope, and Switch's first party games are definitely not treated as games for a portable system, but as the definitive best versions coming out for the best Nintendo has to offer, a home console, which happens to also be portable. Games are built with TV output in consideration, and adjusted a little bit to fit on the smaller screen, but the portable play is an afterthought, the main way they design and program games is based on the docked version.

I exaggerated the "massive part" but the point still stands that Nintendo always launches their home consoles together with a big single player first party title. This title may not be a new Mario 3d but Luigi's mansion 4, or something else, who knows, but there is a reasonable chance the launch title will be a 3d Mario.