Topic: *Switch 2: Nintendo’s Biggest launch ever?!*

It’s all there. The install base. The hype. We know the games are coming. Are we on the cusp of what could not only be Nintendo’s biggest console launch but THE BIGGEST gaming console launch ever?!

Let’s consider some things:

Supply and Demand
All the talk has been around Nintendo prepping massive shipping numbers to meet supply and undercut scalpers in 2025. We know the demand potential will be atleast 146M+. The tariffs are where this gets a bit murky as this will impact costs and supply chains in some form. Switch 1 sold appx 2.74M in its first month I’m thinking this number could be “trumped” 😝 by the Switch 2!

Launch Lineup
This is the key. Although there’s no BOTW equivalent at launch that we know of at this time, we know they’ve been cooking up bangers! The April 2 showcase will likely reveal Nintendo’s latest “must buy” launch titles. Mario Kart 9 makes for an obvious choice, we are due a new 3D Mario, Sakurai has been working on something, that secret online playtest? Nintendo will be there as always but this time around so will the 3rd parties. We could also be seeing Call of Duty, Elden Ring, Final Fantasy 7, Assassins Creed, Monster Hunter Wilds , Red Dead Redemption 2, Resident Evil, Cyberpunk etc…the list has mass potential! Just considering the return of franchises like Madden, NHL could help boost the sports genre offerings on Nintendo consoles. This could shape up to be one of the biggest and most varied software launches ever!

Features
We know it has mouse functionality and that opens up a slew of possibilities and games. I can see them using Star Fox or maybe Metroid Prime 4 as a way to introduce the mouse. The Mouse Pad Pro!….seems like a likely peripheral. Street Pass and a return of Miiverse would be welcomed return features, easy to promote via socials. What other Apps are they working on? Nintendo Music, a Nintendo Entertainment app could stream their expanding movie portfolio….Will Switch 2 communicate with Alarmo within some creepy Nintendo ecosystem? 😆 Will Switch 2 enhance Switch 1 games? All could be influences for early adopters. Theres still a lot we don’t know just yet.

Silksong 😆
This would be a massive W for Nintendo as this game is a system seller. Imagine they announce a Silksong edition Switch 2 with Amiibo.

Competition
It’s pretty much Nintendo vs GTA6 in 2025. If GTA6 can somehow be ported to Switch 2…it’s game over. Another system seller, so long as the compromises aren’t too great this would be huge for Switch 2. It’s a perfect time to launch new hardware for Nintendo.

Hype
The leaks and hype are extremely high for Switch 2. Ppl are obsessing over every detail they can find…down to the size of the game boxes!! The hype behind Switch 2 is real and will only continue into the launch, it’s annoyingly invasive for Nintendo but…it’s a ton of free advertising at the same time!

What do you think? Will Switch 2 launch to a resounding success or will it somehow fail to capture the same level of magic the Switch 1 achieved??

Let’s chop it up!

We might see this as a huge success, especially with people familiar with the Switch branding and Nintendo not using a confusing name like with Wii U.

My hype is a solid 6/10. Will I be a day-one buyer? At this moment, no. We'll see after the April 2nd presentation.

Primarily, I would like to know more about how back compatibility is being navigated. Simply insert-and-play, with improved performance through Samsung and Nvidia tech? Are we installing Switch cartridges to the on-board memory to take advantage of improved memory speeds?

Secondly, I would like to know more about the physical media for Switch 2 games. Publishers commonly cheapened out on OG Switch 1 physical releases. Often opting for 2GB or 4GB cartridges, requiring a download to experience the game itself. Use of 16GB cartridges is uncommon, and the use of 32GB cartridges...is rare.

So if the Switch 2 cartridge is using different tech, what'll the increase to the classic "Switch tax" be?

$100+ for a physical copy of BotW 4K? I wouldn't be surprised.

If the Switch 2 gets third party games that use more storage, Switch 2 cartridges will probably be at 64 or 96 GB, or 100 GB if possible, especially so then they don’t need to use multiple carts or have some of it be on the cart and the rest be downloaded.

Not to be a buzz kill but I don't think we need to expect too much of the launch line up. Nintendo launches never really had a big amount of games. Weight see two big games of Nintendo and some ports. To much games at launch can also have a negative effect, I know that sounds weird but giving people to much choice can backfire in sales.

Those leaks and all sound amazing that every big game is coming but most of them are just there so you click on the article or video. But let's be honest if you see those games on the title you want to see or read more about it.

They will most likely have enough stock for the launch window. However they will have a bad marketing en team if they are not going for those news segments that the switch 2 is sold out everywhere.

I'm sure the Switch 2 will be a success at launch, but not in the amount that is hyped up right now. The world is in a different state right now then in 2017. With the amount of toddlers rulling big countries and a possible trade war in 2025, people might not buy a new console at launch because of other cost.

@Magician I think tears of the kingdom was a test to see if the 70 price tag would be accepted. So it will be safe to assume the big titles from Nintendo will have that price, with the smaller titles and remasters at 50-60.

All Nintendo games will completely on the cartridge. Third party exclusives most likely to, mainly because they will be optimised for the switch 2. I fear with third party games there will be a download required, hopefully not though.

Excluding old examples, all console launches are very successful, even Wii U, that I loved. Realistically, I don't expect an impressive launch lineup, at all. Nintendo planned this launch based on the decrease of Switch sales and on the investors. Sadly, I don't think that the lineup is a priority. The president is an accountant. I'm not even sure that Mario Kart will be a day one game, because of what they showed, but we don't know what they'll show in April nor when the console will release. The most important thing is having stock for the launch period, because some people won't wait and is willing to pay scalpers.

Regarding launch games, I'd find insulting charging for a BotW or TotK "remaster", but some people are asking for it. If I were Nintendo, I'd release a new game in one of the least milked IPs, a remake of an old classic (Ocarina of Time) and, of course, a new Mario Kart game, since it was the best-selling game (port) on Switch.

Considering how underwhelming Nintendo's releases have been these last couple of years, I think they have an ace up their sleeve for the launch. Perhaps not at the scale of BOTW, but the Switch 2 won't even need it to sell like hotcakes.

I don't understand how a launch lineup with Mario Kart 9 can't be considered the most amazing thing ever. It can literally be the only game Switch 2 launches with and tens of millions of us would be happy for weeks.

The obvious reason Nintendo chose Mario Kart 9/10 for a short gameplay in the Switch 2 reveal trailer was because they know how insanely successful those games are. It literally moves consoles more than any other franchise Nintendo has, hence the near 70 million for MK 8 Deluxe. So I absolutely believe it’ll be there either day one or incredibly soon afterwards.

I think they choose to show Mario Kart in a short clip because it's a huge game and an announcement that it's coming is big noteworthy news... but it's not telling us anything we didn't already know. The biggest take-aways from it was that there's more racers (at least in some mode) and Donkey Kong has been reworked. Otherwise it's Mario Kart as we know (and we always knew a sequel would come one day).

I honestly think Metroid Prime 4 is the game they'll launch with. It's not Nintendo's biggest selling series but it is their visually most impressive series made by one of their technically strongest teams and it has a strong cachet with the type of people (us) who buy these consoles on launch day. It's a Twilight Princess or BoTW style "you can play this on the existing console and it'll be great but... it'll be a bit shinier and drop fewer frames on the new console..." release.

I'm also going to give a more ambitious prediction for the first 6 months: Hyrule Warriors 3. The time scales align for it and it would be another game that gets a dual Switch 1/Switch 2 release (with the Switch 1 release being "only borderline playable" in a way you wouldn't normally expect from Nintendo). I think we get that before a BoTW remaster or WW HD 4K and I don't think we get more than one Zelda game in 2025.

Third parties will support it - particularly at launch - but I don't expect much from EA (ever) so any of their sports games will be "legacy versions" (if they ever even come at all). They only want their games on devices that are always connected to the internet to best sell FUT and live service FOMO stuff. Switch 2 won't give them that so they'll sideline it.

For similar reasons GTA 6 will not release on Switch 2.

Silksong will obviously come but it's not a system seller in any way (not least because it's coming to every system and whilst artistically distinct isn't a technical showcase that you need new hardware for).

The showcase will include a teaser for CoD.

The showcase will also include a low stakes low investment game not based on any existing IP that highlights the new features of the console (the mouse if it is indeed one). I'd think more Snipperclips or 1-2 Switch than Arms but it could easily be something more on that level.

@StuTwo The President of Nintendo has said, reiterated and repeated that Metroid Prime 4 is a Switch title. It'll work on Switch 2 sure, but I strongly doubt it's a luanch title. It doesn't make sense.

With all the talk of game development becoming more and more expensive, I think Nintendo will keep the AAA games for Switch 2 and the 'smaller' games for Switch 1 with upscaling. That would be a healthy business strategy going forward so they can still release a game a month, retain how prolific they are and support both consoles in the mid term. (MP4 is AAA in context of Switch 1, not Switch 2 btw.) Their big ip needs to be 'only possible on Switch 2' their lesser ip (and Metroid is here I'm afraid) needs to look better on Switch 2 aaaand third parties need to do much of the heavy lifting to make folk transisiton untill we get the new Mario / Zelda etc.

I just want to pop in and say: I am SUPER encouraged by some of those Q&A comments where Nintendo acknowledged that "exclusive" software is important when launching a new system. (This is in the NintendoLife article about support continuing for original Switch.)

To me, that means we're gonna see some heavy-hitting first-party games that will ONLY run on Switch 2, NOT cross gen, which is what I've been hoping for.

Mario Kart 9, for instance, NEEDS to be Switch 2 only. That game alone will sell tens of millions of Switch 2s. But if it's cross-gen, nowhere near as effective.

New system = move on.

@rallydefault It sounded to me like a 3DS post-Switch type situation. Switch 1 gets ports/remasters/remakes and maybe some smaller games like how 3DS got Ever Oasis/Hey Pikmin/Miitopia meanwhile Switch 2 gets the big new games.

I'd be happy with that setup if it's the case.

@Grumblevolcano
Yes, I agree. I think that would be an excellent arrangement, especially given the backwards compatibility anyway.

Nintendo did double down this week that Prime 4 is coming to Switch 1. It's possible there will be a visually upgraded version for Switch 2, but I feel like at least one of their main launch games will be an actual Switch 2 exclusive (I realize there are potential parallels to BotW but that's a little different since only 12 people actually owned a Wii U).

The beauty of this moment of pure speculation is that it is pure speculation.

We know that Metroid Prime 4 will be playable on Switch 2 and we suspect that it will be visually more impressive than many games built specifically Switch 2. They might not badge it as a Switch 2 game but I still strongly believe it'll be available around launch time and it will look much nicer on Switch 2. In essence and practice it will be a launch game.

I stand by to be proven wrong in April though and amazed by something completely different and unexpected.

@StuTwo Haha, absolutely. I'm always wrong! And that's why I love Nintendo, they march to the beat of their own drum. Sony and Microsoft are far too cynical and predicatble. Those two companies make folk like Michael Pachter look like profit prophets, but totally out of their element when a company tries to be unique.

@StuTwo
I was definitely getting that feeling in the lead-up to the Switch launch with BotW before we knew officially, but I'm not getting the same feeling for Prime 4 this time around (in terms of Prime 4 being essentially a "launch" forwards-compatible Switch 2 game).

My operative word here, of course, has been "feel," but here is the logic I'm also applying: I've said it a million times on here, but Metroid games just don't do the numbers people think they do. Prime 4 would not make a good "launch" title for Switch 2, especially with a Switch 2 exclusive like Mario Kart 9 to further take away its thunder and sales potential. My guess would be that optimistic internal projections for sales by Nintendo will put it ahead of Dread, maybe landing around 4-5 million due to the internet hype the game has been getting and the long-awaited return to the Prime series.

So, I think Nintendo wants to put Prime 4's launch somewhere relatively clean and by itself after the dust settles from the Switch 2 launch to maximize its sales potential, but obviously still hitting the '25 release confirmation. It could even function as a great game for them to highlight and push any "upgrading" tech the Switch 2 may have for Switch 1 games once the initial Switch 2 launch is in the rearview mirror by a few months.

IF (and that's a big if) the Switch 2 comes out anytime April-June, I think Prime 4 is looking like a late summer game, maybe mid July through September, kinda like NES Championships last year. If Switch 2 doesn't come out until late summer itself, I think Prime 4 is gonna end up being a Fall game.

(I know BotW is a different beast because Nintendo pretty much steered that game to become a Switch game once they knew the Wii U was destined for an early grave, but Prime 4 is very different. It started as a Switch game and will end as a Switch game.)

@GrailUK Certainly!

I have no idea how things will actually shake down. It's just fun to speculate. Let's face it we're trying to predict the future of a company that in the very recent past has had major sales success selling a pilates ring attached to an RPG.

@rallydefault I think the thing with Metroid Prime 4 in particular (and the series in general) isn't that it sells huge numbers - it's that it's influence in concentrated in a very important set of demographics. It's kind of like the Sex Pistols concert at the Free Trade Hall - hardly anyone was there but... just about everyone who was went on to found a huge band and become famous in their own right.

In the modern world a game like Metroid Prime 4 that might not sell well compared to, say, Mario Kart but it will sell very well to influencers and taste setters for people who play far fewer games. It provides a bit of a halo effect for a console. If it's received poorly then you have a bit of a negative narrative around the internet about how one of Nintendo's top development teams can no longer handle AAA games etc. and that can seep into the more general discourse for people who would never ever play a Metroid game however good it was. The money it brings in directly is almost irrelevant compared to this.

Honestly I feel like in this respect Metroid is the series that Nintendo can put alongside Zelda.

Anyway - as stated above - I'm ready to be proven wrong (as I have been many, many times in the past), I just think there's likely to be a story in which Prime 4 functions like a launch title even if it turns out not to be.