Topic: Help me understand your certainty around the recent Switch 2 leaks :)

By now, we've obviously all seen the recent "leaks" supposedly showing the Switch 2 pcb, console and joycon shells, along with cad renders of the console's form factor: https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2024/09/rumour-supposed-swi...

I've seen a lot of fairly convincing arguments in the favour of this being legit, manly around the pcb being very hard to fake, why anyone would bother faking a pcb, a source at VCG validating it matches the expected design, digital foundry and every pretty much Nintendo youtuber under the sun saying that they think this is real, etc, etc.

I'm really trying to keep an open mind to this being real also, and perhaps I simply have a bias based on how I have perceived Nintendo's actions throughout history that makes it hard for me to believe this, but I'm struggling to get behind the idea that Nintendo would release something so similar to the Switch 8 years after the original's launch.

Several things about the design and images just feel off to me, despite almost everyone I see commenting on the "leaks" essentially saying there's no way they could be fake.

So rather than asking you to explain why you think this is real, I'd like to ask how you square the comments from Nintendo President Shuntaro Furukawa in Feb of this year (three months before they announced that the console would be revealed this fiscal year) when asked about the successor console, since this is probably the number one item giving me pause of the legitimacy of this leak right now: https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2024/02/nintendo-will-offer...

The main quotes I am referring to are here:

"Every day, we conduct our business with a great sense of urgency. Generational transitions of platforms for the dedicated video game business are not an easy task. Since we have often experienced hardship in the past following a good-selling platform, we never automatically assume that our current position is solidified"

"Our business is constantly subject to fierce competition. When we take a broader perspective and look at entertainment as a whole, our competitors are not just other video games but also various other forms of leisure, making it a very tough industry. All this makes it even more important to continue offering unique proposals that make our brand an appealing choice for consumers"

To me (and I'd love to hear your interpretation if you think differently) there's a couple of key takeaways which are:

1). Nintendo believe they cannot rely on the success of the Switch to drive the success of the successor console

2). To help with this challenge, the new console will offer unique experiences that aren't available anywhere else

Personally, It feels like these key takeaways fly in the face of the supposed Switch 2 design. This seems to suggest a few possibilities:

1). I've misunderstood Furukawa's quotes and he isn't suggesting that unique proposals and a clear difference between the new console and Switch are required.

2). He's purposefully misleading Nintendo's investors and the public on their plans for the system

3). The unique proposals aren't clear from the design, but this system will still offer unique experiences not possible elsewhere.

4). The "leaks" are fake.

5). Maybe some kind of combination of the above or something else entirely

If you do believe the leaks, I'd really appreciate if you could help me understand how you interpreting these comments and why you don't think they point towards the possibility of the leaks being fake.

I'm not here to argue with your views here btw, I'm just genuinely interested to get thoughts on the matter and see if I can be a bit more (or maybe completely) convinced that this is the real deal.

Thank you!

I still don't see any incentive for Nintendo to reveal the Switch 2 before January, since revealing Switch 2 would eat into Switch console & game sales for the holiday. If Switch 2 did get revealed before the holidays, I guess the reasoning behind it will become clear, but I'm highly skeptical.

I'm not putting any stock in leaks. If the console leak is real, I don't think it's necessarily an indication that they're not going to try to do something unique & innovative with the console. But being weird can shoot themselves in the foot, as we all know. So, I wouldn't blame them for keeping the physical form conservative. There could still be something unique built into the console, controllers/pro controller, or something new with software/user interactivity.

I think Nintendo's philosphy & games are special and unique enough that we don't need weird Wii remote controllers or another weird Wii U console that scares console buyers off. I mainly want a console that isn't so drastically under powered as the Switch - I don't like missing out on so many new modern games so consistently. I think having to buy TWO consoles because I like Nintendo games AND modern games is ridiculous.

@WoomyNNYes I totally agree that we don't need another Wii or (especially) Wii-U like console - I've been expecting something along the lines of what made the Switch so unique and special, rather than some off-kilter gimmick that as you say, would likely scare buyers off rather than draw them in.

I guess I'm struggling to see what would be unique about the console if the form-factor is essentially the same - I guess it could be something on the dock, an add-on to the top USB port, or some sort of casting for two-screen gameplay - but it still strikes me as odd that they would intentionally make their new generational console look so similar to the previous console, baring in mind Furukawa's comments about never assuming that the current offering will be popular forever (paraphrasing here but you see what I'm saying).

I guess we shall see! Thanks very much for answering

Not that it matters much at all to me, but it's probably safe to say that the Switch 2(V1) will not use an OLED display, and instead an 8" LCD or LED possibly with FALD if we're lucky. With the final 3rd version most likely to boast a QD-OLED screen if prices come down by lets say 2029. I already game on a 65" QD-OLED 99% of the time anyways, so even by 2029 with the possible bump up to a 9"(From the Switch 2's 8" display)QD-OLED portable display, it still feels like nothing to me.

But do you think Nintendo will best The Duel Sense's Haptics & Adaptive triggers? Will they finally incorporate Gyro Motion, or whatever, with an actual reference/Advanced Sensor bar? Hope their next Pro controller has lower latency like the Duel Sense as well. Pro Controller is pushing 12ms of lag, where as the DS is just less than half with about 5ms.

The leaks don’t matter. It doesn’t matter if the leaks are fake. Here’s what matters: whatever the console looks like, it’s still just a video game console. Mario will look a little better, but you’re still going to tilt an analogue stick to make him move around a little world like we’ve done for ages. Switch 2 - voilà.

@KingdomTears

This does not have to be interpreted as being specifically about hardware. Whatever the Switch Successor looks, sounds and smells like, it will (likely) still be the only legitimate platform for playing the next Mario Kart, the next Animal Crossing, the next Pokémon (possibly), the next big Zelda, the next Splatoon etc. These are Nintendo's unique proposals, regardless of the hardware.

I will though take this opportunity to repeat myself for the umpteenth time and say that I hope that Nintendo delves deeper into VR with Switch Successor. A device that can offer 4k (upscaled) TV, tabletop, portable AND VR play in one purchase, with the support of all those IPs I've listed, will be unique enough a proposition, I reckon.

@KingdomTears
It's like during the NX speculation days when some were completely and utterly convinced that NX was going to be a dedicated home console. Something with an architecture similar to PS4/XBOne and potentially similar levels of power. When the leaks started to come out of a tablet like device with WiiMote like controllers attached to the sides? These people didn't change their position. They dismissed the rumours because they didn't fit with their idea of what NX was

To be blunt, I suspect you're doing a similar thing here

@KingdomTears To me those comments imply that Nintendo wants to be very conservative this generation-- "never automatically assume that our current position is solidified". Trying crazy things hardware-wise and assuming it will work is very much taking success for granted. Giving people what they specifically ask for (e.g. a Switch but without all the performance issues people complain about and more AAA ports) is more trying to carefully balance their position.

As for the second point I agree with @gcunit that by unique experiences they very much mean games. Games can be unique without hardware gimmicks; recent new games like Zelda Echoes of Wisdom, Peach Showtime and Mario Wonder show how much creativity Nintendo can produce. Even their small games like Nintendo World Championship is a very unique experience.

@gcunit this is a fair comment, I guess the way I'm reading it is that when they say they can't assume their position is solidified with the current gen hardware, and that they will offer unique proposals to combat this problem it means (even more than having something unique compared to their competitors) that the new system will offer something that cannot be achieved through the existing hardware, be that gameplay-wise, or how you actually interact with the system. The Wii U had all of these things you mention and failed miserably - these comments clearly stem from wishing to avoid a similar situation.

Interesting view on VR - I would love to see Nintendo's take on this, at this point however, I'm not sure if Nintendo have identified a cheap enough, and accessible way to make this technology appeal to the masses. I think they'll probably attempt it in future, but I would be surprised if it's this generation.

@skywake I suspect I may be doing the same (which I hope I alluded to in my original post) however, the difference here is that in the example you've given, people dismissed the NX leaks out-of-hand, while I am referring to a direct quote made by the president of Nintendo earlier this year which (to me at least) appears to entirely contradict what they are going for with the design in the leak - which is why I asked for help understanding how the community interprets these comments.

@FishyS - I agree that Nintendo are probably being more conservative with their plans this time around, I'm certainly not expecting any wild gimmicks, but I would expect something that makes your average consumer want to upgrade from Switch to the new system, and generates some level of hype and excitement. Now you can argue that more power is all that is needed, but the Switch's biggest audience by a fairly wide margin is families with young/teenage kids - the way I see it, power alone isn't going to convince this audience to shell out another $400 for a new system when all of the Nintendo games they want and enjoy are already on Switch.

@KingdomTears
That's the thing though, the people who had those positions regarding NX also read into Nintendo's statements and used them to justify their stance. By interpreting them in the ways that they wanted. It was only when the product was in their hands that they conceded the point, or at least stopped arguing their position

The thing about the leaks and information we have is that at this point they're fairly solid. We had shipping data which told us the specs, we had accessory leaks which suggested the attachment mechanism, then this photo which tied it all up. And not just in a compilation of believable theories sense. In a they actually got the numbers, pinouts and other such things technically correct

It would be foolish I think to discount it on the basis that it wasn't what you saw it being

@skywake I cannot comment on any Nintendo statements used to justify the stance of people who didn't believe the Eurogamer NX leaks, since you haven't provided any examples (perhaps you could provide some/one?) however, you infer that I'm "read[ing] into" these statements, but surely this would require me to have taken Furukawa's comments out-of-context or to have misconstrued them? In terms of out-of-context, this seems extremely unlikely unless the original articles were also out-of-context, but since he references "Generational transitions of platforms for the dedicated video game business" it seems very clear that he is talking about the Switch successor. With regards to me possibly misconstruing Furukawa's comments; that is the question I have come here to ask - am I misunderstanding his comments? how does the community weigh up this statement (which to me seems fairly clear) against the plausible leaks? I would also like to understand your thoughts on this since you haven't answered this directly.

I agree the leaks seem fairly solid, but this does not mean conclusive. Your comments around the numerous leaks are actually the second biggest item that makes me doubt the leaks - either Nintendo have allowed information about the console to leak out left, right, and center over the past few years to the point that almost all of the new features were made public even prior to this "leak", or (and I think more plausibly) someone with some design and engineering background who also frequents Famiboards has looked at these previous "leaks" and decided that they like the sound of them and that it would be a fun project to design out how they might imagine the system (including the pcb) would work and look like.

Ultimately, I could pose to you that you might be doing the same thing that you have suspected of me in your original reply: that you believe the rumours simply because they fit with your idea of what the Switch 2 will be, and that you appear to be discounting any evidence to the contrary out-of-hand. I would like to be clear also that I'm very much in the middle here - I'm not outright dismissing the supposed leaks; I am skeptical but open to having my opinion changed, which is why I opened up this conversation in the first place. At this point I remain unconvinced one way or the other, however.

Can I also respectfully mention that I find your comments a little on the aggressive side. Saying things like "To be blunt, I suspect you're doing a similar thing here" and "It would be foolish I think to discount it on the basis that it wasn't what you saw it being" feel like you are trying to incite a rise out of me. This may just be your personality and I certainly don't wish to offend you by bringing this up, however I would very much appreciate it if you could be a little more respectful in your responses. I won't be engaging with disrespectful discourse here.

The Wii U wasn't portable, and didn't have a mainline Pokémon or Animal Crossing game, and only got its repeatedly-delayed big Zelda game at the point its successor launched with the same game.

If the Wii U had been portable (with the gamepad presumably designed differently to better accommodate portability) it would have sold multiple times better than it did, and it would likely (assuming The Pokémon Company and Game Freak were able to produce an HD Pokémon game at the time) have got a full Pokémon, Animal Crossing and Zelda release of its own. It would have been the Switch, pretty much.

Nintendo's core market, history suggests, is the audience that wants portable gaming hardware and the type of software that Nintendo produces. That's its unique proposal right there. No other company in the world offers legitimate Nintendo software on portable hardware.

I believe Furukawa's statement you refer to is a fairly safe, non-commital statement, and that you're interpretation of it is a projection perhaps of what you want/expect to hear.

BTW, I think Skywake is Australian. Down there they call a dunny a dunny, they're not here to **** spiders 😉

@gcunit I don't disagree - if the Wii U had all of these things it probably would have been much more successful, however, you're just re-enforcing my point that it's not just the right games that matter. It's the combination of the right games and the right hardware.

If the Switch 2 turns out to be the same proposal as the original in terms of design (i.e. they believe they have hit upon a winning combination of hardware and software that can sustain them through at least one more generation), then wouldn't that suggest that Nintendo now assumes their current position to be solidified?

And just because someone is Australian doesn't excuse inciteful behaviour - calling a spade a spade is one thing, being intentionally rude or disrespectful is quite another.

@gcunit also on this comment: "I believe Furukawa's statement you refer to is a fairly safe, non-commital statement"

It would be appreciated if you could please further explain the specifics of how you have come to this conclusion based on what he stated about it being important to provide unique propositions and never automatically assuming that their current position is solidified. I'm not trying to attack you here btw I'm trying to understand your position so that I might learn from it. I do appreciate and thank you for your responses.

@KingdomTears I think it's as simple as the fact that many games released in the past 10 years either won't be ported to Switch for performance:cost reasons, or have struggled with performance on Switch. So if Nintendo wants its hardware to continue to receive as much third-party support as possible, and to develop first-party games that can still stand toe-to-toe with the rest, it needs to release more powerful hardware.

Nintendo probably won't now release the next Mario Kart, for example, because it needs to support the successor, to give third parties confidence in the successor. So Mario Kart 9 or whatever they call it will be a proposition unique to Switch Successor. Simple as that. Switch Successor hardware doesn't have to be any different to Switch other than have what's needed to support another 5-10 years of new games.

If Nintendo believed its position was solidified, they wouldn't be releasing a Switch Successor.

Re. VR - did you ever try LABO VR? Proof-of-concept was right there. A portable screen that can slot into a cheap headset can give enough of the VR experience to be worthwhile if the games and hardware are strong enough. The fact that Switch Successor (in its initial iteration, at least) seems like its going to be bigger than Switch is a bit of kick to my hopes, but I'm not ruling it out yet.

@KingdomTears
Ok, then. I would content that this first quote you've taken is merely a statement of fact:

"Every day, we conduct our business with a great sense of urgency. Generational transitions of platforms for the dedicated video game business are not an easy task. Since we have often experienced hardship in the past following a good-selling platform, we never automatically assume that our current position is solidified"

Generational transitions are difficult, Nintendo knows this better than anyone. You're essentially throwing out your existing user base and established library of software and starting again. Nintendo need to find a way to either expand their audience or drag their existing userbase to their new platform. Furukawa has spoken multiple times about the importance of their accounts system in terms of giving users continuity between generations

The leaks we have seen thus far do not go against this statement. If anything I would argue that the relative familiarity of the design suggests a kind of continuity in and of itself. As do the strong hints of backwards compatibility from some of the things found in the Switch firmware and the similar cartridge pinout on the leaked photo

Your second quote is also, I would argue, just another statement of fact:

"Our business is constantly subject to fierce competition. When we take a broader perspective and look at entertainment as a whole, our competitors are not just other video games but also various other forms of leisure, making it a very tough industry. All this makes it even more important to continue offering unique proposals that make our brand an appealing choice for consumers"

Nintendo does compete with entertainment and leisure products more broadly. That has been one of their core beliefs for lack of a better descriptor for a long time. Your reading of this is that the unique proposal they will offer would have to be something different to the Switch. It's a reading of it but.... it's a very narrow reading of it. I don't see what you see here.

I would argue that what he's saying here is that Nintendo needs to continue to offer products that are unique in the marketplace. Not unique in their lineup, unique in the marketplace. I would argue that a Switch but more capable is still a unique product in the marketplace. Because it is a hybrid console, which is still a unique product when you sit it alongside PS5, XBox, Laptops, Music, Movies and TV. And I'd also add what @gcunit has said here, their product is unique not just because of the hardware either. Nintendo has their IP. That also makes their product unique in the marketplace

My opinion on what the Switch 2 will be is based on the following:

• The NVidia hack in 2022 which outlined the specs of its SoC
• Famiboards sleuthing which uncovered details about RAM, storage, case sizing etc
• That leak which suggested JoyCons but a different latching mechanism
• This PCB/Case photo leak which included so much detail I'm happy to be fooled by it
• The way that some fairly reputable sites said it matched what they knew
• The fact that the Switch is on the way to be the most successful gaming platform of all time

What evidence do you have for your belief?

Although that is the largest audience it's also not really the audience which tends to upgrade day-1. There is overlap, but fundamentally 'families with young kids' from 2017 is largely different than families with young kids in 2025 because kids age and new ones are born. As long as Nintendo stays a go-to device for kids, parents will buy whatever the latest version is. For people or families which already have a device? The games are the selling point. Maybe the second child will beg for Switch 2 in 2027 because they want to play the new Animal Crossing or Pokemon with their friends. Maybe the older teenager will accept a Switch 2 rather than a PS5 because (unlike Switch) it can run the third party games they want to play. I'm not saying Switch 2 will have no gimmick, just that it won't be the main selling point or even a particularly important one long-term.

Fundamentally Nintendo is at a Gameboy -> Gameboy Advance type transition. Sure GBA had a different shape but that wasn't really a gimmick; the selling point was more power and good games and it sold a ton of devices if not quite as many as Gameboy.

@gcunit personally, I think that you're putting too much stock into what you would like in their next console vs. what the majority of the current Switch's audience would want.

I would say that it's almost certain that the new console will be powerful enough to play games like Baldur's Gate 3, Elden Ring, and Red Dead Redemption 2 that missed out on Switch, which will be great for a certain percentage of the audience (including yourself I'm guessing), but I think a far larger part of the audience either don't care about these types of games or have already played them on other systems. Nintendo are much more likely to focus their efforts on the wider market (blue ocean), rather than the whims of core gamers who mostly abandoned Nintendo back in the 90's and have never fully come back.

And then sequels to Nintendo's own proprieties - My question here is: functionally what will Mario Kart 9 do that Mario Kart 8 can't? Sure they'll probably add more Nintendo IPs into the mix, but will this help convince families who already play Mario Kart 8 on their existing Switch that they should fork out for a new console to play a game that plays almost identically? This is why I believe unique proposals are important.

I'm struggling to see the hook especially when Nintendo says they are concerned about handling hardware transitions - relying on more of the same for more money seems like too much of a risky proposition in Nintendo's case and the quotes that I have highlighted appear to back up this thinking.

With regards to LABO VR - no I didn't play it, I only know that it didn't sell especially well. I do own a PSVR2 though and what I would say is that VR has it's own inherent costs and boundaries to play since it is quite a claustrophobic experience, being blind to the real world around you (something Nintendo attempted to get around with LABO VR by not having a head strap so the headset could be easily removed when needed, but had the negative side effect of being less immersive).

To get around these issue I think Nintendo would need to embrace AR so the real world spaces can be integrated with the virtual worlds - but if you look at products like the Apple Vision Pro that rely heavily on AR tech, the cost is just way too high. Generally Nintendo doesn't cutting edge technology but instead using laggard technology in innovative ways as a cheap way to generate excitement around their new products, so when I say that I would be surprised if they adopted VR tech in this generation it's because this tech is generally too recent and expensive to make it an obvious choice for the time being. I can 100% see them looking at this again in future and I'd be happy to be proven wrong about them adopting it this upcoming gen, it just seems unlikely to me. I certainly won't argue with you that you're wrong on this front however.

This isn't true. They released demographic information of Switch owners in 2021. And while almost surely there would be a bit of a skewing of demographics based on people misreporting their age the huge bulge of players in the 20-40 range can't be ignored

I think you're carrying a belief here that isn't reflected in the data itself. The biggest audience for the Switch, and especially for a premium device like the Switch 2 will be, is going to be people in their 20s and 30s. Without a doubt Nintendo has some dominance amongst kids also but it's a fraction of their userbase. And also, I would argue, one that is served mostly by cheaper devices like the Switch Lite. Something that will probably not immediately change on the release of the Switch 2

@KingdomTears I'm not predicting VR, I'm just hoping for it.

And I'm not asking for more power. You look at my post and comment history - nowhere will you find me asking for more power, a Switch Pro, a Switch 2 (except in relation to my VR hopes possibly).

I'm all in on Switch. I love Switch. I own about 15 Switches. For real. While my username is gc(GameCube)unit, and I love my Wii, Wii U and 3DS, Switch is where I'm at. From a certain perspective, I couldn't care less if Nintendo never releases new hardware again - Switch does everything I've ever really wanted in a gaming device (except for embedding VR into its games, which it doesn't really have the screen resolution to do the games justice, despite how valid an entry I find the Breath Of The Wild experience).

I don't particularly want more power, performance etc. But as Skywake has previously conveyed in other threads, its just logical for Nintendo to release more powerful hardware, the costs of updated tech get too close to the costs of the old tech. The only thing they sacrifice is install base, but they gain another 5-10 years relevance in the ever-progressing tech scene.

I don't know what unique differences Nintendo will bring to Mario Kart 9, but all they really need to do is make sure the racing experience is as good as or better than MK8D, and squeeze all the extra beauty out of the graphics that they can. Then they'll likely end online support for MK8D and MK9 will just naturally become the default Mario Kart experience that everyone wants for the next 5-10 years.

Do I expect MK9 to sell as many copies as MK8D? No. But I don't expect Switch Successor to sell as many units as Switch either. But they don't have to.

I'd have thought Nintendo is best off planning for lower sales next gen, as part of the natural lull after a blowout gen like Switch's, but in the background they'll be preparing for hopefully another blowout gen in 5-10 years time. This is why it's important that Nintendo flags the difficulty of transitioning seamlessly and maintain momentum, because its impossible to guarantee after a gen like Switch.