Topic: Is Nintendo Too Big To Fail?

Hey folks! Thanks to all the Switch 2 talk that's been going around for the better part of a year at this point, I've been pondering about how the eventual launch of it will fare a lot lately. And with all the sales reports we've gotten of the Switch's continued success, it's got me thinking: is Nintendo too big to fail nowadays?

Of course we've seen all too well how quickly massive success can be turned into dramatic falls with stuff like the transitions from PS2 to PS3, Xbox 360 to Xbox One and, from Nintendo themselves, Wii to Wii U. However, I think we're an age nowadays where it genuinely seems impossible for a future Nintendo console to ever get sales as low as during the Gamecube/Wii U era ever again due to just how successful the Switch is; EVERYONE is anticipating the next system and, with the insane growth in social media over the past decade or so combined with the amount of utterly iconic exclusives Nintendo has under their belt (so many to the point where a ton of people will genuinely buy an entire system just so they can play the latest entry as soon as possible), it does make me wonder if we'll ever get another Nintendo system that does poorly at market again.

I'm definitely curious as to what people think though so please share your own thoughts on the topic below if you have any!

Wasn't it stated somewhere that they have a money reserve big enough to allow them to go through multiple Wii U-level failures in a row?

I don't think they're too big to fail, but I do feel like they'd need 2 Wii Us in a row to be in trouble. They're experts at making a lot of money without spending a lot of money in ways that more companies should be jealous of.

of course they’re too big to fail , people are super biased for nintendo

I think Disney is in the process of proving no one is too big to fail

I suppose it depends on whether you define ‘failure’ as ‘putting out an unsuccessful console’, ‘declaring bankruptcy’, or something in between.

The Wii U proves that you can’t take success for granted. The meteoric success of the the Wii and DS didn’t guarantee the immediate success of their successors (we must remember that even the 3DS struggled at launch). However, it did financially soften the blow of failure, and the company bounced back one generation later.

My understanding is that Nintendo’s coffers are currently in a very healthy state and brand recognition is as high as it’s ever been. What goes up must come down and there’ll inevitably be failure waiting somewhere down the road, but it would surprise me if the company didn’t (comfortably) survive the next fall.

Nintendo has been around for 134 years at this point and I don’t see it being snuffed out any time soon.

No company is to big to fail. Usually the ones that think that end up failing.

Rome failed.

@EaglyBird I hate discovery with a fiery passion

If your definition of "failure" includes the transitions from PS2 to PS3 and 360 to XBOne then no. Nintendo can most definitely "fail" if that's all it takes for you to call a console a failure. Those transitions involved the next console moving about 55-65% less consoles

Switch is going to comfortably land around 150mill, maybe a tad more. It's the third best selling console of all time. A "failure" by your definition here would end with the Switch 2 struggling to.... sell better than the Wii......

But for a more sensible definition? I mean, I don't see them going bankrupt anytime soon. They are well and truly profitable enough and have incredibly strong IP. Even if they have successive massive console failures and leave the console space they still have Mario and Pokemon. And we know those IPs are money printing machines

From a slightly more middling definition of failure? Do I think Nintendo could have another Wii U? Again, 100% they could. The thing about the Wii U is that it wasn't so much a misstep by Nintendo it was more Nintendo being .... a bit too Nintendo and being blissfully unaware of the shifting market

During the tail end of the Wii/DS eras you could kinda see the writing on the wall for Nintendo. Motion controls were on the way out, HD gaming was on the way in and Microsoft/Sony were pushing for a new console generation. Then on the portable side while the DS was massive a lot of those sales were on the back of titles like Nintendogs and Brain Training. A market that was no longer interested in dedicated hardware because they had Candy Crush and Words with Friends on their phones

Right now? There are similar movements happening. I don't think they are quite as dramatic but they are certainly there. On the one side of the Switch there's Valve pushing into the portable space. A lot of people brought into Switch so they could play Skyrim, Doom and The Witcher on the train. Frankly those people are currently better off if they got a Steam Deck. Then on the other side smartphones continue to get more powerful. I mean, do you buy a Switch or get an Android based portable console that can run legitimately acquired Gamecube ISOs? And why pay for the cloud version of a new RE game on Switch when the new iPhone can run it natively?

@EaglyBird starts crying

@EaglyBird I don't even care he plays it "safe", he's doing what's best for a top company, the LA Zelda movie is probably a good movie then.

the LA Zelda movie will probably be PG-13.

I think it's very easy to fail and Switch to Switch 2 will probably be the hardest transition of them all to get right because of having to balance supporting the current Switch and giving people reasons to buy Switch 2. All while there's an increase in devices people will compare Switch 2 to (e.g. Steam Deck OLED) and Microsoft are using share manipulation tactics to try to force a merger.

Though as long as they don't do really stupid stuff for Switch 2 like have no backwards compatibility or delve deep into microtransaction territory, they should be fine.

@EaglyBird it helps that you can actually find and afford a Nintendo Switch, unlike the other big fish in the pond.

@EaglyBird Hopefully the trend of Nintendo being cheaper will continue.

saw the trailer for that new Apes movie and now I have faith in an LA Zelda movie.

@EaglyBird I just want backward compatibility and some slick new shiny look and I'm happy.

Metroid is next, I can see the headline, Live-Action Metroid Directed By Ridley Scott Whom we paid a lot of money

@EaglyBird I have trust issues then... But the chance of it happening is above 50%

I'm not sure what mistake you mean by this or what lesson they had to learn re BC. I mean sure, backwards compatibility is important and definitely something I really want to see. But in terms of sales the level of backwards compatibility has seemingly no correlation to sales

I mean go down the list of the best selling pieces of Nintendo hardware of all time and look at the BC that there was. The DS? The DS had it... but then they dumped it with the DSi and frankly I doubt the majority of people ever played a GBA game on their DS. The GameBoy? I mean sure, GB/GBC was solid so I'll give you that. But Switch was a clean slate entirely, not just physical games which made sense but also digital purchases which made less sense and controllers which certainly didn't

And with the Wii? I mean aside from charging a fee for "upgrading" Wii VC titles going to Wii U and them eventually dropping GC support late in the Wii's cycle? The Wii was great both forwards AND backwards. Were they rewarded for it? Well, Wii U sales suggest not

Yeah, long term this is an issue, possibly an even insurmountable one to the point where I'm not sure if dedicated consoles can survive (I do think eventually Nintendo will need to bite the bullet and create devices that are more than just for video games if they're going to survive), but I don't think it's that bad yet. Maybe we need to have this conversation with the Switch 2's successor, but I don't think Nintendo should be desperate to reinvent the wheel right now. Just enhance the Switch 2 with better graphics and a non-intrusive gimmick and it should do reasonable well. By the end of the decade when it's close to the time for the Switch 2's successor? Then maybe they can re-evaluate based on where they stand in the industry by then. But at least for this next generation, as long as they get it right it shouldn't be an issue.

@EaglyBird