I think this is a really critical assumption to make. Especially with Zelda Wii U coming. Nintendo doesn't treat E3 like everyone else. They release Nintendo Directs sporadically and are likely going to announce something big before then. The NX won't even be shown off until next E3, which gives Nintendo (according to your estimations) almost a full year to start development on completely new projects, while there may be stuff they haven't even announced yet. I just think it's a bit of a stretch to say that E3 has indicated that Nintendo is shifting away from Wii U right now.
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Re: Talking Point: E3 Highlighted Nintendo's Development Shift Towards NX, and Away from Wii U
I think this is a really critical assumption to make. Especially with Zelda Wii U coming. Nintendo doesn't treat E3 like everyone else. They release Nintendo Directs sporadically and are likely going to announce something big before then. The NX won't even be shown off until next E3, which gives Nintendo (according to your estimations) almost a full year to start development on completely new projects, while there may be stuff they haven't even announced yet. I just think it's a bit of a stretch to say that E3 has indicated that Nintendo is shifting away from Wii U right now.