Bloomberg recently published a story about Microsoft setting its sights on Japan as the next console battleground. Fortunately, according to one game industry consultant, it's not expected to have any impact on Nintendo - at least in the near future.
As noted by Bloomberg, Nintendo's current-generation platform the Switch "enjoys dominance" in its homeland right now with its "family-friendly" portfolio of games, which leaves Xbox to duke it out with the PlayStation. Serkan Toto, a game consultant who works in Tokyo, explained how "for the next years" Nintendo will remain in the top spot within Japan.
"All signs point that for the next years, Nintendo will stay king in Japan, and I really don’t understand why Microsoft is still so obsessed with Japan.”
He also notes how "Microsoft will continue to have a hard time in Japan" and can't see the PS5 outperforming its predecessor anytime soon. According to Famitsu data, Microsoft's Xbox One made up just "0.1% of console sales in Japan this year through Nov. 1", while PlayStation 4 claimed 10.1% and Switch accounted for 89.8% of sales.
If Nintendo wants to maintain sales momentum and overall interest in the Switch over the coming years, it could be as simple as releasing a hardware revision - like that rumoured pro model. The more affordable price of the hybrid system (in its current state) compared to Microsoft and Sony's next-gen hardware is also likely to be a major selling point.
How long do you think Nintendo can hold off the likes of Sony in Japan? Do you think the Switch will continue to reign supreme over the next years? Share your own thoughts down below.
I could have told you that and I'm not even an industry consultant.
WOW REALLY SUPRISING.
Pretty obvious to be honest, where the Switch has surprised me is it's universal appeal in the west too.
It's very interesting, the situation with Microsoft in Japan. I do think that their lack of any major RPG franchises makes them less appealing to the Japanese market. I remember when they made an attempt to address this on the 360 with Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey, although that didn't seem to last very long! I do wonder how things would transpire if they did purchase Sega, and if they had franchises such as Phantasy Star and Shining Force as xBox exclusives... along with other series which are popular in Japan, like Yakuza and Shenmue. That would be interesting, although maybe excessively difficult, as Sega come with so much in the way of extraneous baggage. But it does seem that Microsoft realise that they need to do something about their standing in Japan. Something. But they have failed to do this for three generations now.
If this is how excited people are about the PS3 3.0 and Xbox 4.0, then imagine the buzz that will surround the Switch's successor. The novelty of the Wii had long been exhausted by the time that Nintendo had launched the Wii U, but the Switch will still be on top of its game even when its successor is on the market, and that is something to look forward to.
“This just in..... also the sun is hot, the universe is vast, and water is wet.”
I think next gen will be surprisingly slow outside of the initial spec heads. I am always wrong lol, but I'm just not seeing huge levels of hype for it, outside of Youtubers who probably got free stuff to big it up lol. To me, it looks like the demand for more traditional video games is on the up and AAA experiences are starting to become unsustainable (more so with each new generation).
Japanese gamers loves Kawaii games like Sanrio games, Sumikko Gurashi, Disney Tsum Tsum, Cooking Mama, Story of Seasons, etc.
That's the secret recipes to please Japanese gamers and Nintendo have a lot of Kawaii games in their menu.
Edit: If Microsoft want to sell their Xbox machines very well on Japan, Microsoft have to throw away their ego "I'm too cool to make Kawaii games".
Japanese gamers want Kawaii games, not Western FPS games.
Has Nintendo ever failed to capture Japan? Their handhelds have always been pretty ubiquitous over there and no one’s outsold them on that front yet
Nintendo have always been king in Japan.
@NinChocolate thats a good point. It would be interesting to see the breakdown of Switch vs Lite sales in Japan as I would imagine that the Lite has sold really well over there.
Nintendo has been outselling everything in both Japan, Europe and North America... the only people who keep pretending otherwise are fanboys. "But the ps4 is dying that's why the switch is selling" we'll see how long that narrative lasts 6 months into next gen and the switch still topping the sales chart.
Yup, can't see the PS5 making huge waves in Japan considering the heavy Western influence. This will also be the first PS system to launch since Sony has moved HQ to here in the States. It won't do terrible, but I'd be surprised if it comes close to what the PS4 did over there.
If Nintendo embraces cloud gaming as it seems it is starting too, then, even those AAA games with super wow pixels from PS5 and Xbox Series will also be available on the Switch. This will mark the first time where impossible to port games will be in Switch's library as well. I find that a succesful strategy for even greater Switch sales. After all Switch is not only handheld, it is a console too for millions of people who will not own another console or don't like playing on PC.
Yes I agree, but Nintendo need to get some games out the door! The 2020 line up due to Covid was very weak. And only saved by animal crossing prior to Covid.
The 2021 line up isn’t looking strong either, with a lot of TBC. I’m worried that if Zelda 2, Metroid 4, and Bayo 3 don’t land in 21 people will feel they need to move on.
The speed that retro works at really makes me think that Metroid 4 is 2022 release.
You've gotta hand it to them, they're killing it. Though, I can't see the momentum staying exactly where it is unless they've got some great unannounced games at the ready.
There won't be a major PS5 system-selling game for the Japanese market until FFXVI, which likely won't launch until 2022. That's awful.
Let's not even mention Xbox.
So yeah, expect Switch to maintain its Japanese market dominance for many years and generations to come.
@Lord I don't think Zelda 2 will release until 2022, given delays
I still believe they're the king of gaming! Just think about how many of you probably wouldn't still be into the hobby or even got into gaming to begin with if it wasn't for at least one of Nintendo's systems. I'm betting quite alot!
The switch's offering is fundamentally different to that of xbox and playstation. So I think next gen will continue to evolve different to Nintendo Switch.
Waiting for Phil Spencer to purchase and set up Japanese game studios.
Game industry consultant says something negative about Nintendo: "That guy doesn't know anything! How does he even have a job?!"
Game industry consultant says something positive about Nintendo: "He's 100% right!"
@Cosats If Nintendo embraces cloud gaming as it seems it is starting too
A fantastic dream of which will go nowhere in the cloud. Someone whom has no understanding of Switch success.
@okimoki I don't think Zelda 2 will release until 2022, given delays
Only NintenDoomed fandom would make such comments.
It only takes Switch 4 years to Dominate and yet we get NintenDoomed trying much as possible to disparage Nintendo success. I can only image what else they would say when a Switch Pro/? get released next year.
@Anti-Matter oh that may explain why the Animal Crossing franchise is so sucefull with japanese.
this analysts seen to forget how monstrous PS5 is, PS5 will destroy Switch everywhere specially when Marvel Spider-man 2 and God of War Ragnarok is released, Nintendo enjoy your nearly 3 and a half dominance in the Market until PS5 DESTROY YOU(i been realistic here), everywhere i see, i see people mentioning how amazing the PS5 is and they plan to buy/play it and forget about they Switch if they have one, unless Nintendo release a big game like Legend of Zelda Breath of the Wild 2 during the 2021 holiday season, they are doomed.
Not just only that.
Maybe only Japanese audiences know but Sanrio-X franchise is really popular in Japan and thus Nintendo Switch got Sumikko Gurashi games annually after on 3DS.
I believe some of Japanese peoples will not buy those Western games from PS5.
I think they wait for something appealing in Japan during pandemic.
Nintendo runs on innovation rather than power and I believe it's the most important thing to lead the industry.
I don't see the PS5 destroying the Switch for at least 2 years after launch. Most consoles seem to always have a lackluster launch library for the first 2 years, even though several games were showcased before launch.
@Collette lol price cut lol that's funny
@ChaosBadger777 suprisingly Switch sold more then Switch Lite in Japan(Famitsu Sales Charts information), that suprising considering Handheld usally sell more in Japan then in others regions.
@Giancarlothomaz God of War sold just over 10 million copies and Marvel's Spider Man like 12.5 million, both released in 2018 on a console that had sold around 90 million units and hit the 100 mil. mark the next year. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate released even later in 2018 on a console that had just crossed the 30 million sold units and has already sold over 21 million copies. No exclusive on the PS4 ever sold even 20 million and on the Switch two are about to hit the 30 million and the Switch is just around 70 million sold consoles. Demon's Souls will be successful but souls games never sell much more than 5 million copies. The games you mentioned are sequels to games that released on the PS4 exactly when the Switch started dominating in 2018. None of them will lead to the Switch getting destroyed. It takes way more. For example a cheaper console (300$) that has dozens of good and great exclusives, what will not be the case with the PS5 the next two years for sure. The concept and backlog of the Switch will continue to sell. I can't believe there are still people saying Nintendoomed after all their success.
Nintendo have 1 year’s grace where they won’t struggle to maintain their momentum. I still think they’ll be on top through 2022. By 2023 I think we’ll see sales levelling out with PS5 and XBX/C claiming large swathes of the market.
Switch’s successor will launch in late 2023 to Q2 2024.
Four more years! Four more years!
"yet we get NintenDoomed trying much as possible to disparage Nintendo success. I can only image what else they would say when a Switch Pro/? get released next year"
WHEN did @okimoki actually say anything like that? Where was the disparaging of success? Delays are a real thing. The current pandemic isn't helping with that.
This isn't the first time you've taken what someone has said, turned it into something that they haven't actually said, just so you can fit it into your own delusional agenda.
Stop being a troll.
The switch's massive popularity and sales are down to the fact its both nintendos console and handheld this generation so its catering to two markets instead of one.
If the switch was purely a home tv console then I'd gamble its sales would be around half of what it is today
If I was Nintendo I would the handheld/TV hybrid design for future consoles aswell, at some point technology will be at a point where the best graphics/ram/power can fit into a device the size of a switch, so all multiplats can come to Nintendo and finally get a full proper fifa on handheld and Mario and zelda in 4K, now that would be a special day indeed
I mean its pretty obvious. The switch constantly dominates the Japanese charts and it already outsold the PS4 there as well.
If you’re a Nintendo fan, you know how different Japanese games feel compared to Western games- game systems, art styles, music, stories, controls, humour- they’re night and day. Nintendo is home to Japanese games, Xbox Western stuff. PlayStation straddles the two and mixes the styles in their games to varying degrees of success.
@MrGawain Well, Sony is neglecting Japanese games with censorship while Nintendo is embracing it. Sony is moving towards the western market. Sony will have a tough time with the PS5 in Japan and Asia in general while Nintendo will be the more successful one.
@BTB20 that true, i was socked that all big major Sony exclusives dint managed to reach 20/30 milions units sold in a console that have a install base of 100 milions consoles, i always hear for Sony fans, PlayStation have the best exclusives and considering they have been the Market leader since the PS1, i expected they major franchises to reach 20/30 milions units sold by each entry of they franchises, the fact Nintendo that 6 of Switch top 10 selling games reached 20 milions units sold and two have nearly 30 milions units sold,is very impressive not bad for a underpowered tablet.
Ah, thank you Toto, for you're incredibly overpaid analysis that someone with common sense could've told you from a mere glance at sales history data. Elitist. 🧐
@SwitchForce cloud gaming isn't unrealistic per se - Remote Play alone proves it (for all the hijinks of my experience, I've comfortably beaten Dishonored and Stories through a stream). But nowadays, as Remote Play's initial 360/544p are getting more awkward to sell to the crowd of 4K Joneses? I've repeated ad nauseaum that it's not enough for Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft, Google or anyone else to embrace cloud gaming until ISPs embrace cloud gaming. Even afterwards, I would personally prefer legit offline ports (especially since I see zero necessity in catching up with current gen AAAs until Switch's successor - there are TONS of older games that still haven't been portable or even re-released/localized outside their long discontinued launch platforms) - but if cloud gaming aspires to be a viable option at all... it's NOT really in the hands of the gaming industry yet. Unless Google or Nintendo go strike some kind of fantastic deal with Elon Musk and start providing their own internet subs.😅
Your average gamer could tell you that Nintendo will remain "King", not just in Japan but everywhere! Mind you, your average gamer three years ago said the Switch would sell less than the WiiU and be a total flop. We also had high paid consultants saying the same thing. What does this tell us. Nobody knows nuffink!
I have been a die hard ps sony fan for many years and i was complaining about the lack of games and software from Nintendo.Last i started thinking that sthing is wrong with (us) ps die hard fans.More and more trash games were coming the prices where too high the microtransactions where crazy (pay 80€ for game pay another 20+25+25 for dlcs) and the gameplay was the same on every game.I never cared for graphics or for frame rates (ps1 ps2 good old days).Since i bought Nintendo switch i think it s the best buy i have done since ps2 on consoles.I really do no think that ps5 is going to get real far and i am laughing with all these guys who think that they are going to see sthing new from sony except a liitle better performance on graphics(stupid People)
Eg.Switch has room for development and can can give much more still
@Collette the Switch Lite is sort of a price cut.... But still impressive.
If SEGA had to sell themselves off to one of the big three: This alone is enough to tell you that Nintendo is a much better fit for such a acquisition.
@GrailUK I agree with you there. Maybe it's just because I'm older and new console launches aren't as exciting as they used to be, but it's seemed to me like next gen is highly anticipated by the community, though not as passionately as past launches. Personally, I'm looking forward to getting a PS5 sooner or later, but I'm not in any real rush to get one ASAP.
It'll be interesting to see how the new consoles are received. Obviously they'll sell out at launch, but how long will it be then before we're back to 'business as usual'?
@Giancarlothomaz I suppose the switch is a handheld that can link up to the TV rather than a home console and you do get a larger screen than you do with Lite.
I personally prefer my Lite as it feels more comfortable and the D-pad is much better than using the 4 buttons on the joycon.
Sales are probably helped by most households having multiple switches as opposed to a single home console.
I've bought 2 switches and a Lite vs 1 PS4
Dr. Serkan Toto is one of the few reputable analysts who gaming outlets invoke, unlike a certain professional troll. And fwiw, he's probably right.
Portability in Japan is a big key to Nintendo's success. They've had the best handhelds on the market for decades, with little to no major competition. Sega and Sony could never keep up, and Microsoft has simply never cared to try.
The focus on power kind of forces the Big N's competition to go all out with a next gen console, so portability isn't possible unless there are compromises with the hardware. It'll work out for Microsoft well enough, but it feels like Sony's been losing ground in their home land because of the big push to attract western audiences. Japan's not as big a market, but it's a market nonetheless that Nintendo's going to take from them. Not sure if Microsoft can even dream of putting a dent in that either, they simply haven't been able to figure out how to cater to Japan.
I have to wonder what could've if Nintendo waited to release the Switch during the holidays. Come to think of it, all it's other consoles were released during the holiday season. Why'd they not just wait to release then? Would there be a different outcome, or more of the same like how it is now?
@westman98 I wouldn't say UNTIL FFXVI per se
I expect Demon's Souls to really move a lot of units especially in a post-Bloodborne world where that game was seen largely as PS4's first must-have exclusive game and the original game garnering a sizable following after positive word of mouth spread. Spider-Man will also obviously sell on brand recognition alone. I'd also 100% expect DMC5 SE to sell better on PS5 compared to Series X and Sackboy being there to balance the more ambitious mature titles with something lighter and more Mario-esque will probably be eyecatching
Xbox's Bethesda buyout also changes everything because if you didn't know, franchises like DOOM and especially Elder Scrolls have massive followings in Japan nearly on par with several JRPG series like Final Fantasy and Persona, so this is probably a major incentive for them to take an interest in Xbox, especially with the advent of xCloud contributing to their culture around handheld games.
The major Japan following around Bethesda might also give some push to buy PS5's for stuff like GhostWire and Deathloop since they are timed exclusives.
sWiTch pRo cOnfIrMeD
Demon Souls, Spider Man, and Sackboy will sell fine but they aren't the million seller games the PS5 needs to experience meaningful success.
DMCV isn't a new game.
We will see what happens after PS5 comes in.
Another analyst would say “Nintendo could be god if they made games only for the PS4 and Phones.”
They failed in the fifth and sixth generations in terms of console sales in Japan. The Nintendo 64 came in a distant last place (even the Saturn outsold it two to one) and the GameCube was utterly destroyed by the Playstation 2. The Wii U flopped there, too.
@westman98 I think Demon's Souls will sell more than "fine". It's literally among the top 10 most successful JRPG series in history. It's even more successful than series like Tales and Persona. That's your killer app right there
These analysts. They either make insane claims that are so ludicrously unbelievable that you'd think they've never read a single piece of data related to console sales (like when some claimed the Switch may only sell 3 million its first year and likely sell less than Wii U overall) OR... we get things like..
"Breaking news! Analysts believe in a year's time, water may indeed still be required for the human body to function!"
I mean, come on. Not only is the Switch insanely on fire in Japan with no signs of slowing, Japan as a territory is INCREDIBLY slow at adopting new platforms. The PS5 may turn into a MASSIVE success in Japan in a few years time, but it's not going to go screaming out of the gates. Especially during a pandemic. And especially during an irregular console cycle where Nintendo is sales king (currently) and I'm the middle of their system's life rather than transitioning.
Microsoft really has only one direction to go in Japan and that's up. They're an utter joke over there. When I first started teaching in Japan, I showed a picture of the Xbone, PS4 and Wii U (this was pre-Switch) and the kids were confused why I actually showed the Xbone at all.
Demon Souls sold 320,000 copies in Japan on PS3. It's not even close to being one of the most successful JRPGs in history.
Preorders for the remake are not very high at all in Japan.
@westman98 Yeah Demon's Souls initially sold badly due to initial negative reception towards its difficulty. That's why SCE opted out of publishing the game in the West and Atlus/Bandai Namco stepped in to help. Nowadays Souls is actually way larger in Japan in a post-Dark Souls world. In its first week alone, the recent remaster of DS1 sold over 100,000 copies in Japan on just PS4 and Dark Souls 3 broke 10 million after DS2 got reasonably close to that figure
Demon Souls Remake isn't going to sell 1 million copies like FFXVI, which is my point - the PS5 needs the mega-blockbusters to succeed in Japan, and it seems like it won't get any until 2022.
@westman98 I think after Dark Souls 2 and 3 both broke a million and well exceeded it in addition to Bloodborne which was also PlayStation exclusive and developed by a lot of the same staff, Demon's Souls probably has a better shot. The way Japan looks at that series now is radically different than when Demon's Souls originally came out, and it actually got around to selling better in Japan after positive word of mouth spread on how good the game is, becoming a cult classic in that region while it ended up selling 2 to 3 times better overseas. Now that Souls actually has a proven reputation, remaking the original as a launch game will probably be even more attractive now that the Japanese audience has a softer spot for the series which it would spawn. It would also probably garner significantly more attention given it's the one PS5 first party launch game that's ONLY on PS5 unlike Spider-Man and Sackboy since Astro is a pack in game.
In my opinion, Microsoft's outreach is less about market share inside Japan, and more about drawing in Western gamers who like the Japanese aesthetic. Sony has these gamers on lock with the PS4, and Final Fantasy XVI's initial exclusivity to Playstation is proof that the perception that a platform is great for Japanese gaming is not only for Japan itself, but also for market share in the West.
@TheRedComet in japan you can’t ignore the portable console as a legitimate unit of gaming hardware. For many there that is how video games have been best enjoyed. Nintendo has been first in gaming there because of that. Match Pokémon sales to sales of any game on PS2. Nintendo does quite favorably
PS4: first official price cut in the USA was in October 2015 (23 months after the initial release date)
as you pointed out, the Switch sales performance is really impressive.
I think the kids on Japan were thinking "Xbox One ? Nani sore wa ?" 🤣
@Anti-Matter Oh, no, they do know what it is, it's the inferior western PS4. To them it was kind of like saying Coke, Pepsi and store brand cola. Lol
For Microsoft, I think the focus on Japan is simply that they want to win Japanese developers for their platform worldwide, and Japanese developers won't pay attention to them unless they have a reasonable foothold at home. It's not really about sell through in the Japanese market, it's about a demonstration to Japanese developers that they're serious abut Japan, and thus win support from them, knowing there's a large worldwide audience that wants Japanese content.
Considering Sony is flipping Japan and Japanese developers off, all at once, they may actually get a winning strategy there.
@Heavyarms55 I thought PS5 was the inferior western PS4 to them?
@TheRedComet Any so-called flop was made redundant by the Nintendo handhelds that were going at the time. This, plus amazing software sales even on the flopped machines, and all the Nintendo merchandise that Sony cannot even dream of getting a piece of. Nintendo was king even during the N64, Gamecube and Wii U days.
@NathanTheAsian lackluster lauch with this games?
They are bound to hold players over for... some amount of time. Outside of that library, it's all just waiting.
Given that many of Nintendo's 2020 games were announced ~2 months prior to launch (and in the case of Mario 3D All-Stars, 2 weeks prior to launch), I don't think we should make any specific predictions about the quantity or quality of Nintendo's 2021 software lineup beyond what has already been announced.
With that being said, 2021 is the 35th anniversary of Zelda and the 25th anniversary of Pokémon, so some Zelda and RPG Pokémon title should be expected for release next year barring some delay (Breath of the Wild 2, Zelda 3D All-Stars, and Diamond/Pearl remake are my predictions, alongside the already-announced New Pokémon Snap).
@Nephestinus......first party line up
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