The Nintendo Switch is selling amazingly well – so well, in fact, that Nintendo is struggling to keep pace with demand after more than three years from launch. Switch sales up are up 95% in the first half of the current financial year, and that has seen Nintendo's share value rise 30% in 2020 alone.
Much of the current confidence in Nintendo stock is down to the Switch's astonishing success, but in the eyes of more cautious investors, the firm is now at something of a crossroads; the Switch isn't going to be around forever, and the circular nature of the video game hardware arena means there's the risk that the Kyoto-based veteran could fumble its next machine, just as it did with the Wii U, which followed-on from the insanely popular Wii.
However, there are some which believe Nintendo has learned its lesson and that instead of creating an entirely new hardware platform, it will follow Apple's iPhone model by simply upgrading the Switch and keeping players firmly rooted in its current software ecosystem.
Speaking to Bloomberg, Toan Tran of investment manager 10 West Advisors said:
With every console generation, the install base resets to zero and their earnings power essentially resets to zero. They can continuously have an install base of say 100 million consoles out there, that just moves along over time.
The logic is sound – by keeping people tied to the Switch, Nintendo can ensure that its consumer base remains reasonably consistent. Players will benefit from having their entire library on-hand for years to come, and won't have the added cost of having to purchase new software when a brand-new system is released.
However, this approach does fly in the face of Nintendo's desire to create new and innovative consoles; no other hardware maker has been as active in this regard. Nintendo is behind machines like the motion-sensing Wii, the touch-based DS, the 3D-powered 3DS and the Virtual Boy. While not all of the company's hardware experiments find a wide audience, the firm has a history of tearing up the rulebook and starting over with each subsequent hardware cycle – and that's why investors are uneasy.
Nintendo's share value recently passed through the 50,000 yen barrier and could overtake the all-time high marker of 73,200 yen, but there's always the worry that another Wii U could be around the corner, bringing that value down to earth and losing investors a lot of cash.
However, Ryan O’Connor, portfolio manager of Kansas City-based investment firm Crossroads Capital, agrees with Tran's assessment that Nintendo has gotten wiser over the past few years. He tells Bloomberg that the Nintendo of today is different from the company that existed pre-2017, and he feels that the Japanese firm has given enough indication that it's looking to establish a perpetual platform rather than kick-start a new hardware cycle with its next system.
Nintendo is reported to be working on an upgraded Switch for release next year, but that doesn't necessarily mean the company is going to stick with the concept long-term – it has traditionally refreshed its portable hardware in the past, hence the fact we have the Game Boy Color, GBA SP and New Nintendo 3DS. It has also stated that its next hardware platform will be much like its previous ones and that it "still plans to expand its business around the creation of unique integrated hardware-software products" that create "a positive cycle" and forge "positive long-term relationships and increase our points of contact with even more customers."
I wouldn't be opposed to this and it makes a lot of sense, just don't release incremental upgrades every single year and system updates that slow the 'older' generations like certain other fruit-named companies.
Hmmm, sounds like a good idea
I honestly wouldn't be mad at this at all. I absolutely adore the Switch and it's portability helps so much when chipping away at massive rpgs.
only if they fix the joycon drift first.. barely use switch in handheld mode since both joycons are living their own lives, tired of replacing..
I've always been a big fan of how Nintendo tries to innovate and change things up but at this point I'd be happy for them to settle with the current design and just improve on it. They basically own the handheld gaming market at the moment and that's how I prefer to play my games so I'd like to see them build on what they've done with the Switch and continue to just make the best handheld devices possible. The dual screens handhelds were a really genius design and offered some great gameplay functionality but going back to a single screen was the right move for making the system easy to port to for third party and indie studios.
Switch is fine fubctionality wise as it is now, they nailed that part.
Just fix the joy-cons and it will be even better (meanwhile I wait for my package to arrive so I can fix my analog stick for the 3rd time in 2,5 years, and probably need to fix the one on my partner their Switch for the 4th time in 3 years, sorry if this sounds like a rant but it slightly is)
Rant aside I also hope they put larger storage in the Switch, SSDs are cheaper than ever nowdays and 128gb should be possible for the Switch (plus keep the micro SD card slot)
I really pray for a "eternal" backwards compatibility (from Switch to the future). I would be very happy to not lost a digital game again having only one console. But it's Nintendo...
I am all for this. Switch was my entry point to the nintendo family so I respect people loving nintendo for their inovations but if the next Nintendo console won't be a better version of the switch and will just try to tie me down to a couch in front of a tv again I don't think I'd buy it.
@snusmu you don't need to replace or even open the switch to fix Joycon drift. It's a less then 5 minutes procedure with a eletrical contact cleaner, like WD. I use this process and it take months until I needed to do it again. Yes, they need to fix this, but it's not the end of the world
I hate the idea. Because with just the release of one upgraded Switch we'll start to see games exclusive to the new model and games that perform worse on older models. And not everybody has the money to keep purchasing newer models. Even if you sell the old one -and we would have to see the way we keep game data-, the amount you can get back for it isn't going to cover the new one.
DS, Wii, and Switch were all created under Iwata's leadership, no? So it would make sense to say Nintendo is different to how it was 15 years ago and this could well extend to how it plans its hardware development.
BUT... the Wii U was pretty much an iteration on the Wii - everything (assist from the base unit) developed for the Wii was compatible with the Wii U, but the Wii's 100 million 'install base' meant precisely **** during the Wii U years. I loved the backwards compatibility and still play Wii games and use Wii Remotes all the time on my Wii U - the BC and the off-TV play were the reasons I bought a Wii U - but it obviously wasn't really enough for the market generally.
So, in conclusion... I'mdunno. But the market only seems to be increasingly based on ports and remasters of older software. Iterative hardware releases kinda go against that trend. But, Sony and Microsoft are going against it right now, so... I'mdunno.
This wouldn't surprise me, I don't see them returning to the old home/handheld split again after going through the effort of unifying their teams. Plus, the Switch uniquely allows for some modular means of playing, so it's not like their bent for innovation would suddenly disappear. Stuff like Labo and Ring Fit show that there are a lot of unconventional avenues to explore, and they can have that without sacrificing the ordinary means of conventional play.
I think Nintendo will run with the current model with some minor and cosmetic upgrades within it's lifecycle.
Then Nintendo will release a new form of Hybrid console, may even go with the Switch 2.
Yes to that. The Switch is too good as a concept to just get rid of completely.
Also the way they do the virtual console with NSO, points to a more long term thinking with a cloud that might stay.
@gcunit Wii u is not a exemple about what they saying. They mean the games launched to the next console should work on Switch (at least for a while). Wii U had backwards compatibility, but Wii Don't have "forward compatibility". That's what they mean: almost everything that work on a iPhone 11Pro works on a iPhone XR and even older phones
well the joycons are already just as fragile so theyre on the right track as apple id say. but id love for them to continue expanding with the switch
@RCGamer it depends on the case, in the very beginning compressed air helped a bit, then it stopped, so switched to electrical contact cleaner which also helped a bit , but then it didnt. Then i replaced the joycons. Now it is happening again with newly replaced joycons.
Same is happening both with my switch and my girlfriend's unit. Our units are 2 year old.
We usually play Switch in the evening when we are both tired after workday. It's not when i want to bother with more repairs or cleaning, and re-discovering the drift issue again and again in the middle of the game just makes me not want to touch it eventually.
It could, it should, and I think they aren't the only ones. Sony will attempt to retain the old model as it has been good for them. But MS are looking to break that cycle too.
The Xbox Series itself already seems to be modelled after phones and even MS' own Surface hardware, and its cross system support with Xbox One. Hence the 'series' naming. With X being high end and S being budget, I fully expect to see an xbox series 2 in 4-5 years. If not sooner.
You won't be required to upgrade with every hardware release, but there'll be power benefits from doing so. You can upgrade when you feel you want and need to. It's a much better ecosystem and is more beneficial to both companies and customers.
Yeah I really would love to see them do this. I thought I was done with console gaming until the Switch came along. Handheld + multiplayer + a buoyant indie scene is everything I want from a games machine.
And the general Switch structure allows for endless hardware innovation with new controllers and add-ons. I can't see any reason to ditch the format, but to get back in the graphics arms race, which they clearly have no appetite for.
Nintendo continuing to upgrade the Switch for eons and continuing to innovate don't have to be mutually exclusive. In fact, they have a long history of doing both at the same time. Things like GameBoy Color games with extra features when played on a GBA kept games available to older hardware while giving a reason to get the newer devices. Both the DSi and New 3DS had exclusive games that could only work on those upgraded models. Monster Hunter 4U could play on both the OG and New 3DS while taking advantage of the New 3DS's features like a better framerate and the control nub. The 3DS, Wii U, and Switch had amiibo to bring extra content. Even the Switch has had stuff like Let's Go Pikachu & Eevee where you could use a controller made specifically for those games and Labo to literally DIY yourself new controllers. Nintendo is probably the best suited company to continue innovating with the Switch. They just need to innovate a real fix for Joycon drift first. And when we do eventually get a New Switch make games like MH4U that work on both, but better for the New. Ease people into the transition so they feel like it's their idea to upgrade instead of feeling forced into it with a New Switch exclusive right away.
I love the Switch. This makes so much sense. I hate the short life span of consoles.
Considering the switch is now both Nintendo's console and handheld division in one, are the sales numbers that impressive still? I mean let's forget about the wii u, imagine merging nintendos last great main console (the wii) sales with the last handheld (3ds family) sales, then you will see that the switch, which takes up both of those markets is still lagging way behind in sales
@Valhalla91 interesting angle. But, is that still true given the Switch is only 3 years old and both those consoles have completed their cycle?
I hate this idea, it will kill innovation. iPhone was the last innovation made by Apple, and that was 13 years ago
I can understand how people enjoy the current iteration of Switch, but imagine if they decided to do this back in the DS days, we would just have a better resolution/memory/gpu device instead of something new and exciting like the Switch
The Switch is a great and unique concept unlike the iPhone which is just an overpriced glorified Sony Ericsson P910 with monetised Linux depot.
There is no way Nintendo is going back to a competition with Sony and Microsoft and since all consoles now have half gen and devs are forced to make their games compatible across generations, why not make a new version every 4 years with backwards compatibility since the architecture doesn't change anymore from one gen to the next
I love this idea!
I wouldn't mind upgrading to a newer model every 3 years or so as long as every Switch game remains playable on the newer model.
I believe Xbox is going to do the same for their home consoles going forward.
I've always had the thought that when this new generation of consoles comes, generations are going to get a few years longer as we hit a plateau at technological improvement.
Switch and PS5 will last around 8 years minimum.
Sony and Microsoft have followed the iPhone model for years. We know the next five Sony consoles will be PlayStations. Could work, Nintendo, just make them backwards compatible
@RCGamer Yeh, you gotta point. I knew I was confusing something, but wasn't in the mood to work out what. Thanks.
@Rhaoulos Soon it will just be Sony to "compete" with. I don't see Xbox continuing its hardware after this generation sadly, I think the Switch and Ps5 will kill it and force them to move to software like Sega.
Works well enough for phones, where people are conditioned to upgrade every couple of years, could work here too.
But much like phones, surely after a few iterations, the internal architecture will have evolved enough to be incompatible with OG Switch games, which undermines the “maintaining the 100-million user base” concept, surely? It’s less of an issue with phones because games there are a bonus feature, not the core, and tend to be more disposable.
I think it is a good idea.
And, they can still continue innovation as they have shown with Labo, Ring Fit, Mario Kart RC, etc.
@Valhalla91 Yes it is impressive. The Switch is portable yes but does not touch the DS's portability and ability to fit in your pocket so it has slightly less appeal for commutes.
Lets not forget the Switch is competing against the PS4 one of the best selling consoles of all time and soon the PS5 (don't see Xbox as a threat to its momentum), the 3DS competed against the failed PS VITA and the Wii had core gamers and casuals on board so it just dominated early, with the PS3 having a bad start.
So what you're saying is that 10 years from now we'll be buying $100 adapters to plug in headphones?
I have been telling my friends for 2 years now its high time Nintendo shelves their habits of feeling like they need to start over as if stuck in a time loop of success<>failure. They have their console that is the merge of handheld and TV console that has made a strong install base. Now fine-tune their console!
If in question that sticking with current console and fine tuning will not work as a business model; observe and take notes of recent Xbox and PS5 preorder consumer purchase activity!
To quote Star Wars Nintendo: "stay on Target, stay on Target..."
@gcunit The big difference is that probably 90-95% of all Wii owners only had the console to play a handful of party games like Wii Sports or Mario Kart, and to them the Wii U would be wasted money because "it's just a more expensive Wii". The Switch doesn't have that problem because people who have a Switch have it to play 'real' games, so to Switch users, buying a new Switch eventually makes sense.
Nintendo can still innovate while keeping an iPhone-esque model, they just need to focus on keeping the base design similar while expanding on it with peripherals and additional features. I'd be in favor of an iPhone model, then they can just upgrade the hardware whenever they have a new idea instead of whenever they need to keep up with the rat race.
@Octane No no, just the €100 mandatory Bluetooth adapter for wireless headphones.
Problem is the content. Unless Indie developers start pushing up their game and start developing games that can keep up with larger studios. Their won’t be long support from 3rd party.
Nintendo should rethink a subscription for games. This could change things.
And for the love of god stop rebooting the approach to online every generation. Just keep improving it.
@Moroboshi876 developers will support the older version for a couple of years because the user base is huge, they’ll want to tap into that.
The new console will get beefed up graphics, and games that wouldn’t be possible on the current switch.
As long as they don't slow down older models overtime and they fix Joy-Con Drift, I think that I'd actually like that.
@Scrubicius You are wrong. There are hundreds of awesome indie games on the Switch at the moment. And indie games are just that, indie games. Never should they start developing games that can keep up with larger studios because this would defy the whole meaning of what an indie game and an indie developer means.
I would love that to happen
There just one problem.... where the heck am I supposed to find an SD card that can hold such a huge libary!? I already archive a bunch of games...
@asmi8803 That's precisely the problem. With the New 3DS we didn't see many exclusives, but some games performed worse on Old 3DS. That's as logical as unfair to early adopters.
Of course Nintendo and developers want the new Switch to happen, but not all current users will have the money to buy a new one.
I have completely broken my joycon trying to fix the drift by spraying it w/ contact cleaner. The L1 button ceased to function and I had to replace the whole pair.
I mean the Switch hasn't even started being a console yet
No features beyond playing games and a friends list, filled with ports, they haven't fixed the online yet, also NSO has no incentive beyond being drip fed 30 year old games
The poor thing has been in its launch window for nearly 4 years
At the rate Nintendo are going, the Switch would need to exist for at least 10 years before being half as good as the Wii
"With every console generation, the install base resets to zero and their earnings power essentially resets to zero."
I have an opinion on this statement - BS!
I'm somewhat torn on this. Next gen feels like the most boring gen yet because it's using that model but then again when Nintendo resets for each generation usually something ridiculous happens regarding legacy content like this time we're nearly 4 years into the Switch's lifespan and we only have 1 1st party N64 game (Super Mario 64) and 2 1st party Wii games (Xenoblade Chronicles and Super Mario Galaxy).
In either case though, backwards compatibility needs to happen.
Personally I'm all for this, especially if it would mean continuing backwards compatibility. The Switch has some of my favorite games ever on it, and it'd be a bit frustrating to not have access to them on the Switch's successor. I think they've found the perfect hardware model and just need to focus their innovation on the games.
@Hagemaru 5-7 years as usual would be OK, that's life. But if they want to adopt the iPhone model and release a new Switch every 1-2 years, that would be the point where I get off the circle of video games and stick to the systems and games I already own.
Anyway, being able to redownload (or introduce) games already purchased on future Nintendo consoles, whatever they are, thanks to backwards compatibility, would be great, and a first. We better not hold our breath.
@Richnj I love my Microsoft Surface. 😆
I think they are not looking at WHY the Switch is selling so well right now which is because 1. the pandemic happened 2. ACNH came just at the right time to connect people who are shut-in. How long will it last?
That being said, I’m not sure if this is a good or bad business model. What I do know is that there’s a lot of improvements that can be made on the handheld aspects of the Switch, or the next thing up from the 3ds. Having owned every handheld since GBC and also having a real Game&Watch since birth, the Switch is a step backward as far as their portable consoles go...
Newer tech will make the switch look obsolete. The hardware already stuggles. I don't see how this would work. Why doesn't every console just upgrade and keep their install base? I don't see it happening.
The idea that the next Nintendo home console won't be an hybrid is indeed strange. As already mentioned, they dominate the portable gaming market.
If the newer models are more like a jump from Nintendo DS to Nintendo 3DS than from Nintendo 3DS to New Nintendo 3DS, seems pretty good to me.
"Nintendo is reported to be working on an upgraded Switch for release next year"
isn't more "rumoured to be working"?
@Cosats well I see the definition in Indie like in the movie industry. Star Wars for example was a indie project. Cuphead, Hellblade or No Man’s Sky are good examples.
But I wouldn’t say I am wrong when you consider what content sales consoles. And at the moment it’s not a indie game that is only available in the eShop.
@Kezza64 I see where you're coming from but since I've been gaming on nintendo (gamecube onwards) Nintendo have always had a console and an handheld going on at the same time both bringing in some big sales figures when combined (100 million plus), even the ds on its own sold 154 million then the wii sales at around the same time are currently at 101 million so in total nintendos handheld and console sales for that generation were 255 million sales total!
But the switch is now both Nintendo's main console and handheld so should realistically atleast be aiming for 150 million sales total
But who knows there's still some time left maybe the switch will reach those figures
The NES is an example of this. A longer hardware cycle enabled accessories and a plethora of games to flood the market and it became one of the best selling consoles. The Switch can do this easily if they do it right.
I’m on board with this for sure.
I have no idea how I’d ever go back to a non-hybrid system ever again.
This is just far too convenient and has totally changed the way I play video games.
If the next system WASNT fully hybrid, I would vibe very unlikely to pick it up.
I’m hoping the switch isn’t just a blip in history.
It all boils down to if its worth it financially for Nintendo
For example hardware sales for
Handheld (DS) 154 million
Console (wii) 101 million
Hybrid (none) 0
TOTAL: 255 million
Handheld (none) 0
Console (none) 0
Hybrid (switch) 63 million
TOTAL: 63 million
In my opinion, as much as I love my switch and switch lite, I think they benefited more from having a proper home console and a seperate dedicated handheld.
Makes sense, digital and subscription services around the corner... Permanently. If be surprised and disappointed if the next Nintendo system is not backwards compatible
@Valhalla91 God it's clear you haven't studied past high school or you're still there. I'll introduce 1 variable to you're logic. Manufacturing cost. Just one. #stayinschool
This is the path that Microsoft are already trying to go down with the Xbox Series X|S, and people are criticising them for holding back the new hardware by still catering for the old. Whether Nintendo (or Microsoft, for that matter) can get by that mindset of the gamers or not is yet to be seen, but it's definitely the future of consoles in my opinion
@Willsy @Valhalla91 I could be wrong but I've heard there isn't actually much money in the system hardware anyway. The money is in the games. They want a large "active user base" buying software. If they can achieve that with 1 device instead of 2 then they're quids in.
@Willsy lol even if they break even in teh manufacturing then there's still a way more bigger user base buying games for both the handheld and console
@Bydlak wow, I never heard something about that! I didn't know it could happen and I did this a lot. I'll keep it in mind, probably I'll need to do it again soon.
@Valhalla91 ... that was one variable... Here's a second... R&D... A third... Advertising... Maybe a fourth... Margin... Heck a fifth... Attachment rate...
Go read through their annual report... Otherwise just enjoy the games you're playing
I'm sure what they'll be aiming for is a continuation of people being able to play the same Nintendo games, whether at home on the TV our out and about.
Even if the Switch does get replaced sooner or later, or a new home console is launched, I suspect the software and hardware architecture will be closely aligned to the Switch.
Yeah. N hates to not be able to sell the same games each gen.
I'd love an infinitely backwards compatible 'Switch' with upgrades say every 2 years. Eventually the old ones won't do new stuff but that's just console life.
They will need a substantial boost in performance from a new model in 3-4 years once NextGen 3rd party games start utilizing the full potential of the new consoles. The Switch will need an upgrade as it's unrealistic to think they're not getting one in that time frame, and Nintendo said the same thing about 3DS going along side the switch and they basically bailed on it right away when the switch there to doing really well. Hopefully they just call it switch 2 or switch next.
@Valhalla91 I mean, you were pretty selective in that data. The Wii was surrounded by 3 underperforming home consoles.
Those failures is what an iterative release model tries to avoid.
Interesting idea, I am not opposed to it as long as the cycle isn't yearly and Nintendo opens up their catalog so that we can have a lot of their past games available. If they did this then I would buy in each time to enjoy Nintendo's offerings. Nintendo's strength is in their software and if they keep their device plan with all of their software, no cutoffs, then this could benefit them greatly.
i would love it if Nintendo would keep doing what they do best, and keep inventing new ways to have fun/play games. Theyre very innovative with how they do things, and i think its great. Not every invention is a success, but they all are cool and unique in their own right.
Oh god no that's a terrible idea because you limit what games can be offered on later upgraded versions by needing to have them still run on all previous versions. If increasing polygons and texture resolution and better particle effects and better lighting and more environmental detail and so on was just a matter of dialing up some values then it could be done, but thats not reality.
There won't be continuous iterations on the original Switch. There will be a next gemn Switch 2 in a few years that allows for a large spec leap instead and lets the new system handle newer more demanding games, as always happens in a generational leap. It should have full backwards compatibility and the same but improved online services to allow for a smooth transition from Switch to Switch 2.
@Moroboshi876 tem burro? Man, If Nintendo creates a New console the same thing Will happen
Your comment just
Don't makes sense at all
I can’t see them taking the gamble involved in ripping it up and starting again. Financially too much of a risk without another System generating revenue.
Let’s face it they would have to be insane. They can iterate on the Switch for years and the way they’ve set up the Account system on it and NSO-as well as how many of their games feature dynamic resolution-suggests to me that’s the thinking.
@KartLover_BadPC What doesn't make sense is the way you try to insult me, because it's not even my language. But I think I'm entitled to an opinion, and what I'm saying is that iPhone model, that is an upgrade every year or two, would make the previous model obsolete or almost obsolete in no time, and that would piss off customers, of course.
You can disagree, of course, but don't go disrespecting.
Nintendo can just keep the Switch for the next three years, and then release another console, that most likely Will continue to hace Switch on its name.
They’re benefitting massively from not having two Systems to support. 3 of their last 4 home Systems have disappointed sales-wise.
There’s no point taking on the huge extra design and manufacturing and marketing costs for questionable gain. There’s no sense whatsoever in splitting their Games development capacity. Plus their games are selling like crazy on Switch and making them tons of money.
COUNT ME IN! I'D LOVE THAT
If they’re iterating every two years that would be an issue but if it’s a 4-year Cycle-as seems to be the case-that’s not much different to them releasing an entirely new system that makes the old one instantly obsolete.
I think sticking to the hardware cycle is one of the things Nintendo has going for it right now, so even if they could break it, I bet they won’t.
@Moroboshi876 bro, I didn't wanted to insult you
This was just my first thought when I read your comment
But it's like: BRUH
If you think that everything is an insult, you can't live on the Internet, I'm sorry
Maria Mole vc hein?
And the article didn't said that Nintendo will make a new Switch every year
They just said that the Switch may become a Standard, a Franchise of Consoles
Like PSX, PS2, PS3, PS4, PS5....
That's what I'm trying to say
@RCGamer the contacts factually wear down. You can definitely delay it, but it eventually becomes permanent.
@electrolite77 That makes more sense than an actual iPhone-like cycle. But I really hope we don't get to that point, and I know I'm not alone. Again, not many people has the means to buy a new console day one, it takes usually at least months, usually 2 years, to be able to purchase it, so it would suck to spend that kind of money only to see the focus goes on new system just 2 years after you bought that console, you guys know what I mean?
I bought my Wii U on 2015, that's on me because its future started to not look good back then, but I don't regret it, it still has an excellent catalog. But if I hadn't bought my Switch the same 2017 it was released in, if I had done it let's say before this summer, I would be angry with all the rumours about a more than possible Switch Pro releasing in 2021. Let systems have their cycles and people to step in when they can without having to worry about their new gadgets becoming outdated so fast.
@snusmu Just learn how to replace the joy-con joysticks, it sounds complicated, but I've done each side about 3 times each now. It's VERY easy after doing it once and learning how. I just buy the joy-con joysticks in bulk now (packs of 5 or 10) to have replacements ready to go once a drift starts. Costs less than $3 per stick.
So I get to keep everything I buy from the eshop from now on and it will always be compatible? I'm on board but I suspect some inside nintendo are not.
I’m for it. I’m not an iPhone gamer but I do like that once I’ve bought a apple digital game, song, or movie it’s mine. Atleast theoretically. How many times have I bought Mario 64 etc just to get it on the latest hardware? I like the idea of a hardware refresh every 3 years or so. And all Switch games work on it. If they want to innovate I’m good with it. A new attachment or controller, but hopefully not required for most games.
@Dragonstar i did replace thumb sticks, and i do find it easier than having to use contact cleaner every week or two. Still, issue reappeared after replacing as well, and i got tired of replacing them, it's not how i want to spend my free time.
Most importantly though, "learn how to replace the joy-con joysticks" is not an advice end-user should get. Faults like this should be fixed at the source, period.
Never had any such issues with previous Nintendo handhelds.
This is a fantastic idea and would be stupid for Nintendo to NOT pursue. Keep everything reverse compatible and build the online and virtual console libraries. Coast and make money Nintendo.
Analyst predicts Nintendo will be like Apple. Analysts also predicted flying cars, 50 years ago.
I would not be opposed to the idea, it would work well for me personally. But I find it really hard to believe. It's very unNintendo. Focusing on a bespoke handheld device means challenging GoogAzon in the cloud streaming space, without the pockets to do it, and that involves keeping the same hardware interface which means nVidia vendor lock. Nintendo doesn't do vendor lock.
Probably I sprayed too much cleaner under the analog rubber and the alcohol from the cleaner melted something inside. That's my guess, at least.
If the expectation for success is that Nintendo ships 255 million units of hardware every generation, then Nintendo may as well give up now because that will never happen again.
What really matters to Nintendo is their revenue and operating/net profits. In that regard, 2019 was their 4th biggest year ever and 2020 looks to be their biggest or 2nd biggest year ever.
A more powerful, bright and shinny new Switch every 3 or 4 years? Where do I sign up for this?
How is this any different than the DS line was?
Keeping backwards compatibility for a long time is helpful in some respects, but kills off the profitable "porting" from old consoles. I use quotes since many are just emulators.
@StevenG They are talking about making it a unified platform, not changing the system entirely and just including BC.
NES => SNES
GB => GBC => GBA
N64 => GCN
NDS => 3DS
Wii => Wii U
Switch => ???
I'm fairly confident the Switch 2 or whatever it's called will be a fairly standard upgraded over the current Switch (upgraded display quality/resolution, GPU, CPU, RAM, storage speed, etc while maintaining backwards compatibility) but with one or two new hardware features. I highly doubt Nintendo will imitate the iPhone model of iterative revisions every year or other year.
The Nintendo platform that releases after the Switch 2 will likely be the one that is radically different from the current Switch, but that probably won't release until well after 2030.
@doctorhino The DS line wasn't just backwards compatibility. They played the exact same games for generations.
2 reasons why the Wii U failed:
> The blue-ocean blockbusters that drove the Wii's sales (Wii Sports, Play, Fit, etc) lost relevance once mobile gaming became mainstream (the same thing happened to Nintendogs and Brain Age on the 3DS).
> It had a terrible name and was marketed more like a Wii accessory than a successor due to the Gamepad.
The Switch 2 won't face the Issue #1 since the immense success of Nintendo's core franchises is the primary driver of current Switch sales, and I expect those core franchises to maintain their immense success on the Switch 2.
Issue #2 is where Nintendo 'could' mess up due to their unpredictable nature, but I don't believe for a second that they will call the Switch successor the "Switch U" and market it like an accessory.
We've already got some indication that the Switch would stick around until sometime between 2023-2025, looking at how Nintendo wants the Switch to have a long lifespan. I will be more than happy if that's the case.
When has Nintendo ever left money on the table? Oh wait...
I only play on the TV, but I really hope they keep the hybrid design in the future as well. The reason is, back during the Wii U days I'd play that all of the time and Nintendo would release a new DS or 3DS game and it would look cool but I wouldn't pick it up because I like sitting on the couch playing games on the TV, so I felt like I was missing out. So now that it's a hybrid I get to play all the games on the TV without missing out on anything.
I just hope they quit with the gimmicks and just stick with the hybrid console. Innovate through software, not through new controls.
I think we can be certain the continue with the 'hybrid' idea as they won't want to split the development resources again for a home console and a handheld. However what we might see is a platform with two distinct form factors capable of playing the same games rather than the full on hybrid platform we have at the moment.
It may have already been said up the comments, but just because they keep the system in a similar design / Architecture doesn’t mean they still can’t be ultra innovative, just look at all their accessories over the years.... anyone else remember the Super Scope 6 (and having one) or a multitap for Bomberman?
If you think in iphone terms strictly you’re imagination is limited due to the mobile market having a vastly different clientele - people that want a 2-5 min game while bored. But look at how the games have improved since iPhone 4.... went from flash / Facebook type games to full fledged Civ 6, and you could probably spend a million dollars and still not buy every accessory for iPhone.
Nintendo has had some of the best feeling controllers, and some of, if not THE best accessories to get for a system. Their R&D for that kind of stuff I feel is nearly unrivaled.
@westman98 I'm fairly confident the Switch 2 or whatever it's called will be a fairly standard upgraded over the current Switch (upgraded display quality/resolution, GPU, CPU, RAM, storage speed, etc while maintaining backwards compatibility) but with one or two new hardware features. I highly doubt Nintendo will imitate the iPhone model of iterative revisions every year or other year.
I also believe this will come to Nintendo user but I would change the release date would be closer to March 2021 for the new hardware. But also having 3 hardware version.
2. Standard Switch
3. Premium Switch - upgraded CPU/GPU/Internal Storage/Display(4K docked-1080p portable)
I'll be disappointed if they go down this road. Now, I'm not saying I'm going to freak out, "OMG I"M SO ANGRY!!!" But it was always a lot of fun when a new system comes out and you get to try out its new tricks. So a periodic, "Here's the new same thing, just a little better this time" just wouldn't generate the same level of excitement. But as much as I hope it doesn't happen, I do see the logic behind it.
@snusmu not sure where ya live, but I know in the US Nintendo offers free replacement/repair of Joy Cons. I just went ahead and bought 2 new sets, then sent in both my old sets at the same time. Got them back and fully fixed within 2 weeks, and that’s during the pandemic - Sent on Sept 7th, received back on Sept 18th. So far their replacements / repairs have worked better for a longer period than my previous self replacements I got from Amazon.
Fine with me. But fix the account system. One main and others that can’t play every downloaded game doesn’t work well for a family.
Switch Pro is most likely real and bound for a 2021 release, but it will probably be the same as the current Switch with a processor fabricated on a smaller node, thus allowing for GPU/CPU higher clock speeds and maybe some more RAM. The actual processors and overall architecture will be the same.
The Switch 2 should have an all new, significantly upgraded GPU, CPU, RAM, storage, etc, as well as support for new features like DLSS and VRS.
I can definitely see the Switch's successor taking a leaf from the 3DS book, on being fully backwards compatible with the previous generation's software. The only reason they couldn't do so with the Wii U is the step away from disc-based media.
What a great idea, they could call it 'backwards compatibility' and release a 'Switch U'
They are "struggling" to keep up with demand because they have created an artificial scarcity.
I wouldn't mind this I guess.
@Mhayes111387 Oh yeah for sure, everyone is doing that these days. Even the toilet paper companies are on this new craze!
An intruiging idea. But I think it's too consumer friendly for Nintendo. Consumers could decide when to upgrade without losing access to their games. Ipad sales peaked in 2014 and have been steadily declining. I'm a graphics guy and I'd be tempted to skip gens if it didnt mean losing access to Nintendo games in the interim. Nintendo makes the most $ when they can sell 20 million consoles a year. I don't think they'll jeopardize their hardware sales like that.
@Xiovanni If any Nintendo employee actually suggested that name, he'd probably be ordered to commit immediate seppuku.
I really hope this turns out to be the case, honestly. What I'm afraid of is that the next system will go back to being a TV-only device. Always been more of a handheld player, don't have the time or attention span to sit in front of a TV.
Nintendo would be wise to stick with the Switch, BUT, they need to make it more powerful to keep up with the other new consoles coming out and they need to up the storage to atleast 128gb with sd card expansion. They also need to give the outside a refresh, something more sleek, flashier. I also wouldn't rule out a second screen that slides up from the back...I was a huge fan of the ds, 3ds design and think it would do well. DELL is making their own version of the Switch and it is very powerful with a great physical design.
It seems inevitable that Nintendo will stick with the hybrid formula while it continues to be so massively popular. I, for one, couldn't go back to tethered consoles after being able to play anywhere. It's not just portability, but having the ability to play just like a tethered console when it's convenient. Switch is a wonderful idea and there are plenty of other ways Nintendo can still innovate. They just need a good incentive to upgrade without alienating current Switch owners who aren't ready. Letting everyone upgrade when they want to could only build a more loyal following. I already have a massive collection of Switch games. Much more than any other console I've owned at the end of it's lifecycle. It would be awesome to have that entire library available at the beginning of a new cycle. In that way, the Switch reminds me of the Gameboy. My biggest concern would be choosing which games to take with me when I go out. Personally, I'm ready to leave tethered gaming where it belongs. My retro collection.
Excellent Idea! Especially with Cloud Gaming becoming Bigger!
I would continue building on the Switch like the Gameboy and DS. Inevitably, they will have to release a new system rather than more iterations. They could make this new system a backwards compatible successor that is still a hybrid. I don't know if Nintendo can just release a Pro model and milk the Switch as long as the Gameboy. A Switch 2 needs to happen sooner rather than later.
I wouldn’t mind if they moved away from the switch eventually, but however long we can keep things running Switch software — like how the DS still allowed you to play GBA games, or the 3DS played DS games would make me happiest.
I noticed a lot of people here having “drift” issues with the standard Switch. I have a “Lite” and I haven’t had any issues with the “stick” drifting. I have no doubt that drifting is an issue but I wonder how hard some gamers may be on their joy-cons. People toting their standard Switch on the go and having it bounce around loose in its case can’t be good on them. Also some people can be rough on their systems. My original 3DS actually had the “circle pad” crumble off but the pad itself still works; it just doesn’t have the circle part. I was just wondering if the portability and carrying it everywhere plus abusing the joy-cons is partially to blame. Especially since the only people I know in person to experience drift is a kid who takes his out in public with him and his Switch itself is in poor condition. Everyone else I know that has one hasn’t experienced drifting but they are casual gamers who only play AC:NH...
@Valhalla91 Nintendo lost a lot of core consumers during the N64-Gamecube era to Playstation and only got some of them back with the Wii DS and 3DS. The Wii U didn't help them much either. 100m would be a fine number for this console, especially since its going up against two separate generations of Playstation, who have dominated the industry since the N64 era.
@RabidPikachu I've had to get both my joycons replaced 3 separate occasions. Both the standard joycons at launch and a pair I bought shortly after. I have a Switch Lite which has luckily had 0 issues in year one. Really hope the Lite doesn't get it but I feel it's much sturdier than the standard switch
I hope they keep the eShop running permanently regardless of the next device. So tired of repurchasing old stuff over and over again.
This would be great BUT they need to sort out the eShop, it’s already a nightmare for developers.
A proper virtual console with store would be grand too.
@Jokerwolf does it though? Even if the switch was upgraded, third party games would be trash still.
If Nintendo can makes games for switch then they should keep on doing it. Only real reason to own a Nintendo.
@Kezza64 If anything, Nintendo lost their core consumers with the Wii. Casuals sold that system,and when the Wii U came out casuals didn’t care and their core fans had already left them.
I hope this is the case, I have my Sony console and gaming PC for powerhouse graphics - my love for the Switch lies in the 'switch' aspect of it and I adore being able to play a game on the big screen but also on a plane or train, Microsoft and Sony just can't compete with that aspect.
@electrolite77 Okay, but the numbers are telling another story and that is the number of consoles sold likely won't even reach the number of DS's or 3DS's sold during their respective life-cycles. Meaning that not only have they lost console sales going this route, but they've also lost a fair number of handheld sales as well. We are halfway or more through the Switch's life-cycle and it's sold 65 million or so units.
Now there are two things to consider, first is that the hardware is likely to see a plateau and substantial drop in sales over the next year or so which will only get worse as the generation nears its end. The second factor was the Corona Virus creating a massive demand for the console during these lockdowns, that is now over for most and even if things get shutdown again, people who don't work in essential businesses are becoming far too broke to drive sales up in any meaningful way as many people were out of work for months and many others were simply laid-off.
I would venture to guess that the Switch will sell around 100 million units in-total which is far less than the DS and 3DS handhelds sold in their respective generations and with no home console sales, those numbers are actually quite abysmal by Nintendo standards.
Said analyst seems to have forgotten how the mobile market grew ripe for disruption in the first place.
@Trajan Yes if you look at the history of Nintendo consoles all of the console generations lacking 3rd party support tanked super hard. Also the X1 chip was outdated already when they decided to use it in the Switch and there are much more capable and vastly superior chipsets nvidia has developed that wpyuld allow for next gen ports.
@Moroboshi876 so when will it be ok to upgrade the console?
Any games that are only playable on the new gen wouldn’t work on the old gen anyway. And where possible developers will support the old gen because they want to tap into the user base.
Considering that Nintendo's sort of wanted to be a mobile developer for a while now, like most Asian game companies, I can see this happening. I can even imagine the Switch being given a camera and SIM card compatibly, as weird as that sounds.
I guess it just comes down to whether Nintendo is crazy enough. And we all know Nintendo has done weirder.
1. 3DS sold 75.87 million Units so if Switch reaches 100 million it will have comfortably surpassed that and in fact the GBA (81.51 million). It will be closing in on Gameboy lifetime sales of 118.69 million, a figure which includes GBC and 12 years on the Market. It won’t get near DS Sales but that was a total outlier, with sales fuelled by a large number of people that were lost to Console gaming after that generation (see also-Wii).
2. Software sales are the most important thing. Switch is cleaning up on that front and in fact has already passed 3DS on that front with a fair chunk of its lifetime left. It already has 9 First Party games that have passed 10 million sales (3DS had 7 overall). It has 2 already past 20 million (3DS had 0). Having all their games on one system is making development easier and driving sales.
I love the idea.
@bluemujika spot on, every 5 or 6 years would be a good time between new models
@Dethmunk I'm not sure you understand how the new xbox works
Games running on the series X are going to look better then say xbox one S, games will also include SETTINGS (some xbox one games already have settings) similair to that on PC
All you have to do is look at gaming on PC and proves you to be completely wrong
@Trajan You still do not alienate your market like that, Nintendo is not Crapple.
@Jokerwolf Nintendo often tries to emulate Apple, so it wouldn’t surprise me.
@Trajan Honestly this generation Microsoft's the most consumer friendly. I was hoping Nintendo would follow suit.
@Jokerwolf you can only shrink so small before heat becomes a enemy. I for one is glad that Nintendo made the Switch for what it is. And GPU isn't the only reason why the Switch is having success. This is what alot of opponents of Switch forget and like others to forget. I for one will be waiting for arrival of Switch 2 in March 2021. Just like the launch date of the first Switch March 2017.
Huh? What iphone ever went 3+ years without a successor?
"and the circular nature of the video game hardware arena means there's the risk that the Kyoto-based veteran could fumble its next machine, just as it did with the Wii U"
Oh they will. It's important to remember that during the height of the Wii success, Iwata was quoted in an interview that they couldn't afford to rest on their laurels of the success of the Wii. Several months later, they rolled out their second biggest failure behind the Virtual Boy.
I for one, really hope not.
@Trajan I'm 30 and I'm pretty sure likes of minecraft and fortnite are just a generation thing, nothing to do with these children having mental disabilities like your ironically childish comment suggests lol
@SpaceKaren it's funny how people like to harp on failures but forgets that you don't make success without failures and learning from them. Maybe people should liken to remember this. But we all know they harp and harp but learn nothing right. That is why some don't work for Nintendo innovations and taking Risk. That is why we now have the Switch a evolution of all their innovations into one smashing hardware that doesn't require GPU power to become successful.
@westman98 The Switch 2 should have an all new, significantly upgraded GPU, CPU, RAM, storage, etc, as well as support for new features like DLSS and VRS.
This is the most likely outcome that will happen. But as we all know there are NintenDoomed fandom that don't want this to happen and want them stuck in the 80's tech. Because then they can spout how much more power they have but fail to listen from mistakes that nothing is in their hands.
to put nintendo an apple in one sentence is an insult
nintendo make pure innovative and quality products, and think about something totaly new every cycle. and i hope they will continue to do this. although i reaky hope that for once they put something realy powerfull on the market.
i just want to see those nintendo games not running behind today standard video output.
we have to admit, the concept switch works vecause it was something new and between the lifecycle of the xbox one and ps4, and because it takes time to deliver huge quality ganes for them, while most switch games have an average of 4,9GB therefor have faster quality releases.
Great work guys!
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