
A US trader has accumulated a $400 million short bet against Nintendo, piling on new concerns surrounding the company's stock value going forward.
Nintendo's stock prices have been all over the place in recent times, with a large number of dramatic falls since E3 piling pressure on the Japanese giant. A lack of new game announcements was reportedly to blame for the majority of these drops - although Nintendo's Reggie Fils-Aimé was quick to fight back against these claims - but this latest development could be equally as damaging to Nintendo's current situation.
Gabriel Plotkin, head of New York hedge fund Melvin Capital Management, has reportedly jumped on Nintendo's recent stock price woes by placing a huge short selling bet on the idea of it crashing even further. If a short seller believes that a company's stock price is overvalued, and will therefore fall in the future, they can make money through borrowing and selling stock at its current price before buying the stock back again after it has fallen in value. This could also backfire, however; if the stock value rises, the short seller would only be able to re-purchase the stock at a higher value than before, essentially losing money.
In simpler terms, this basically means that Plotkin has placed a $400 million bet on Nintendo's stock price continuing to fall. Naturally, this has the potential to cause even more doubt in the minds of investors, with some reportedly deciding to sell their stock and follow suit in Plotkin's short selling tactics. According to Bloomberg data, this is the largest trade against Nintendo since at least 2013 (shortly after the Wii U's disappointing launch).
It's a very strange time in the world of Nintendo at present, with the Switch breaking records left, right and centre, but also coming under fire from investors after a slight second-year lull. Only time will tell how Nintendo's latest system will perform going forward, so all we can do is wait and see.
As ever, feel free to share your thoughts with us down below.
[source bloomberg.com]
Comments 214
And yet another article of little substance, about an industry based on risk, filled with analysts and stockbrockers with little understanding of the companies they invest in and analyse. The best line in this poor article was, "A lack of new game announcements was reportedly to blame" and then you link to one of your own articles which is opinion not fact. I literally cant even with this...
It's interesting and probably doesn't mean much in the long term, but I do think it underlines the wisdom of Sony's strategy of announcing games and having reveals for them years before they're going to be released. It annoys fans to some degree, but it helps investors keep their money in Nintendo's coffers.
Always wondered how the rich got richer. 😐
Wonder if Nintendo will/can do anything about the lack of stock confidence.
I guess only time will tell if they are right or wrong?
If I'm not mistaken we should have one more Direct before the end of the year and in my opinion Nintendo has to show us the stuff planned at least for the first half of 2019 and that stuff must be good otherwise I can see the share prices dropping.
@BouncingHat stock brokers hate Super Smash Bros. The random item drop is too unpredictable to be sure if they can beat their friend every time. 😄
@Hyrule Or, rather than complain about every article on Nintendo Life, you could just not comment and leave the comments section for the people who actually do read these articles and find them interesting. "I literally cant even with this..."
@Pizzapasta You have to remember, it's only the second year for Nintendo.
Totally understandable.
And I'm sure that is only the beginning...
I'm scared that Metroid Prime 4 will be a disappointment because of BandaiNamco rather than RetroStudio...
The same with the "fake" Pokémon rather than a "real" one in the end of the year... etc...etc...
Nintendo could fix its current financial issues with an acquisition strategy. This is how Microsoft is staving off criticism related to the failure of the Xbox One, by turning up at e3 and announcing studio purchase's.
Nintendo clearly has an issue with keeping AAA franchises rolling onto the console and additional studios could fix this, it could also buy studios to turn existing franchises exclusive. It currently has the money but Nintendo been Nintendo they'd prefer to sell us cardboard.
@kurtasbestos I think you have me confused with Cobalt. But keep reaching
Announcing you’ve shorted a stock to the tune of $400M is a great way to drive the share price down, irrespective of the strength of the company. This is the game hedge fund managers play. Nintendo are the games gamers play, and I’m betting we’ve got a fabulous future together
@Balchad The WiiU actually went through the same thing. First year was actually quite amazing with lot of titles, including strong 3rd party support (more so than on Switch ironically).
Then, due to disappointing console sales, the second year was a disaster (including Nintendo's own terrible lack of first party releases) and rest was history! It never recovered. Even when one amazing first party title after the other released on the WiiU in the later years.
So, now here we are with the Switch. Strong and suprising first year, with some very good first party and third party releases.
But now we are in the 2nd year and the first party line-up is a disaster! 3rd party line-up disappointing and Nintendo's E3 presentation was pretty much a disaster, with all they had to show for was Super Smash Bros.
Strong console sales alone are not enough! If you have no new games to show for it, people will quickly loose interest and the console sales can suddenly crash in an instant and Nintendo might suddenly be left with a huge rest-stock of Switch consoles.
I love my Nintendo Switch, have one console for myself and one for my son, but I am so far very disappointed with the game line-up of 2018.
I really thought Nintendo would own E3 this year, due to the popularity and sales momentum of the Switch.
Instead they completely blew it with a nearly sole Super Smash presentation.... which was boring as heck! /shrug
@ConanLives What Nintendo's problem is the lack of wide acceptance of microtransactions in every game they publish. Shareholders prefer to get the easy piles of money from that rather than actual game releases as that costs manpower, time, and the worst of all effort from Nintendo.
@BouncingHat I like Smash. but, I do agree. it wasn't a good E3 for them this year.
@Cobalt Why weren't people worried when Smash Bros 4 was being developed by them or, Helping Mario Kart 8?
now people are worried of them because they are possibility working on Metroid Prime 4?
until, I see actual Gameplay of the game and what they are doing with it i'll be reserving my judgement on it.
@Smash_kirby Bullocks! Has nothing to do with Micro transactions! LMAO!
Do you actually own a Switch console? The e-Shop is filled with games with Micro transactions lol /facepalm
Minecraft
Fortnite Battle Royale
Paladins
Rocket League
Those are just four very prominent games that are high in the eShop charts. There are plenty more games filled with Micro transactions, like NBA2K18, FIFA18, etc, etc.
Have Nintendo Life staff suddenly decided they want to be stock brokers?! Well keep it to yourselves because these posts are totally pointless.
@NewAdvent I disagree. There are lots of potential strategies to bringing studios in house, and what Microsoft and Sony classically do is straight up purchase studios and turn them effectively first party. Nintendo could do the same thing.
A studios future potential value will be priced into any acquisitions, a lot of these companies particularly on the smaller end are set up to be sold, and at the top end just grab enough stock and its hard to prevent a purchase.
I wouldn't advocate Nintendo go after a major publisher, but there's a host of mid sized companies that could be purchased as Microsoft have proved.
Super Smash Bros for Wii U sold well, but did nothing to boost sales of the system so it's understandable that investors don't see it in the same way as they see Mario Kart. Investors want to see something that will have two things: broad appeal and critical acclaim. Last year had that with Mario Odyssey, Splatoon 2, Mario Kart 8 and Zelda. I don't count games like Octopath, Bayonetta, Xenoblade or Captain Toad because while they're critical darlings and great for fans, they don't have spectacular sales figures. Nintendo basically need to announce Mario Kart 9 or Splatoon 3 for next year to get the investors to calm down.
@Pizzapasta Sony has holdings in anything from health insurance, to TVs and bluray players. They can diversify a huge catalogue and keep different investors happy.
Nintendo's holdings are mostly in games, so there isn't much to jump between for concerned investors. It's either videogames or amiibo, and neither caught their eye as something that'll grow between now and November-December.
He made a safe bet.
@Hyrule Seems you're searching for something to complain about.
@ConanLives
Was going to say the same thing. Still if Nintendo were to buy some studios who should they buy. (Indie)
@kurtasbestos Why in the world would Hyrule not be allowed to complain about bad content? We're all here to read, comment, discuss and suggest. Heck, Nintendolife has been asking us for help on what we want to read more of, and what we would like to see less off.
The complaints are highly valid and should always be voiced, not shunned just because they don't match the opinion of everybody.
@Dr_Corndog one does not search when that which one desires has already been found. Hyrule is making a valid complaint, and in these days where Nintendolife is asking for suggestions on site content, that just makes it an even more valid complaint. Saddle up mate, this is called free speech, and we're not a united community.
@NewAdvent Are we even using the same console? Hard stop? Are you mad?
There is a metric TON of games coming out during this second half of 2018. SO many quality titles, with varying budgets (many with big budgets, psh)... We're practically DROWNING in QUALITY content.
If you believe we're seriously at a hard stop, I'm beginning to have my doubts as to whether you even own a Switch let alone play games on it.
@JohnnyC We don't need a Mario Kart 9 at the moment. Nor do we need a Splatoon 3. A new Zelda is too soon as well.
Zelda BotW, Mario Kart 8 and Splatoon 2 are still very high in the eShop charts and doing really well.
What investors expected, especially after last year's suprsingly good come back of Nintendo at E3, including suprises by major 3rd parties! Super Mario Odyssey, Skyrim, Doom, Mario & Rabids Kingdom (the big shocker at E3), teaser of Metroid Prime 4 and Yoshi!
Now we had E3 in 2018 and what we got? Super Smash Bros. That's it!
No update on Metroid Prime 4, no news on Yoshi (other than delayed to 2019), no footage and news of the new Pokémon RPG (other than delayed to 2019 as well). No new suprising announcements people expected, like Animal Crossing and what the hell ever happened to Pikmin 4?
That is what both gamers and investors expected of E3 this year! And what we got? Almost a full hour boring presentation of Super Smash Bros! YAY! /Facepalm
After the amazing E3 presentation last year, Nintendo completely blew it this year! Unbelievable!
@Pizzapasta that is debatable because once a game is announced, marketing has already started so it's expected to generate value soon
@Arnold-Kage Polytron and Heartmachine would be 2 I'd start with.
Polytron would enable fez to be ported over, followed with the announcement of Fez 2 (its about grabbing the IP), and Heartmachine because their style would suit Nintendo's and they could do a classic top down Zelda which would contrast against BOTW.
Neither are huge but would be a good start in terms of Nintendo fit, and to go really wild someone producing a sports game like 'super mega baseball'. I think the problems that consolidation at the top end does make this harder and more costly.
Edit: meant to add who do you think they should grab?
Edit2: Hah, if they ever felt about going really big Bungie's deal with Activision ends in 2020.
So one guy short sells and then a bunch of other traders sell because of it? Talk about a self-fulfilling prophecy...
Ever wondered why NL posts so many financial news? They own Nintendo shares and it's becoming worthless.
@Aozz101x
SORA is the main developer with BAMCO Studios and they, or make ONLY Smash or they help...
Now we talk about MAKING a Metroid Prime game. That's special dude, really special. I remember when Nintendo gave Metroid to Koei Tecmo(Other M), the result was horrible. I remember when Nintendo gave Metroid to Next Level Games(Federation Force), again it was just atrocious.
So dunno if you understand how scared I am since I heard that it's not Retro Studios but BAMCO behind the 4th episode... :/
@NewAdvent The problem with your assessment is that you can certainly buy someone who doesn't want to be bought, if a companies publicly traded the risk of hostile takeover is real.
Also turning up with a pile of money is a great strategy for acquiring something. Initial investors can talk of right timing and direction, but, money is the key.
Nintendo needs recognisable IP, and critically acclaimed IP, that can just be turfed onto the system.
I hope they lose millions.
This article only shows that Gabriel Plotkin is an absolute moron. I hope he loses everything.
It'll be great when Nintendo reveals a slew of games in a month or two.
@Cobalt yeah, just looked up and Sora ltd did work on it. i apologizes earlier. (haven't play Smash 4 in years, after my hardrive stop working for my Wii U. )
I'm still gonna hold off my judgement. Nintendo could be involve on Metroid Prime 4 with them (just like Nintendo were involve with Metroid II remake). but, you do make a good point on Metroid Prime: Federation Force and Metroid: Other M.
@NewAdvent If being delusional was the game, you'd be the top name
Console-sellers:
Pokémon Let's Go (duh)
Smash (you said it)
Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate (Switch-exclusive G-rank in the West, hugely popular franchise, definitely a console-seller.)
Dragon Ball FighterZ (on-the-go version is virtually irreplacable, console-seller)
Octopath Traveler (came out already but was during 2nd half, that game is bloody amazing and turned out ridiculously popular)
Dark Souls Remastered (don't even try to deny it, this was the talk of the town until the talk of the town was about the delays instead xD)
That's already pretty amazing for games that are going to sell the system like mad, and beyond that there is, as I said, a ton of quality games coming. Might not all be system sellers, but they're darned good.
Few I can mention off the top of my head:
1. Dead Cells
2. Okami HD (Still a great game)
3. Blade Strangers
4. Skullgirls 2nd Encore (old but gold)
5. Labyrinth of Refrain: Coven of Dusk (dungeon crawling madness)
6. Valkyria Chronicles 4
7. My Hero: One's Justice
8. TWEWY
9. Yomawari: Long Night Collection
10. Iconoclasts
11. Undertale
The second half is jam-packed with quality, and saying anything else is a clear cut sign of being delusional.
Now, if you wanted to argue that we've barely got any first parties coming... Sure. But they aren't everything. Heck, I bought a Switch for Fire Emblem: Three Houses alone (aka bought it at launch with zelda botw knowing I'd get one anyway and might as well support Nintendo by being an early adopter), and that's first in Spring 2019! Yet there's no shortage of quality games to spend my days with.
i have a lot of N stock, i might have understood a short position above $50 but i feel there is limited downside at this point. upcoming er might not be great but i plan to hold on until march
Let’s look forward to 2019 cause nintendo has nothing more going for 2018 xD
@ConanLives couldn’t agree more ! big N shot themselves in the foot this year
@Richard_Atkinson five by five. please show me another comment on an article, where I've expressed how I feel about the quality of the articles NL are producing, based on your claim?
My comments are available for all to see
https://www.nintendolife.com/users/Hyrule/comments
Meanwhile, Nintendo launches the Motorbike from Breath of the Wild for Mario Kart 8 on Switch and the game is second in the UK Sales for the week (https://nintendoeverything.com/uk-software-sales-week-ending-7-28-2018/). Very concerning this Nintendo of yours...
Industry analysts will tell you more games will solve this issue but anyone who actually works in the stock market knows this is due to 2 things that Nintendo isn't doing right.
1) Their online infrastructure is a total mess.
2) Their Media offering is non existent and at this stage it's passed the point of "acceptable". It's just too stupid that Nintendo have not made Netflix, YouTube or a working browser available on the Switch yet.
The second point is the much bigger issue, it points to massive incompetence within the management of the business in general.
I have invested in stocks before and i would never invest in a tech company such as Nintendo that do not offer fundamental online services in 2018. I can't imagine how you'd be feeling if you were an actual investor watching a company the size of Nintendo make these ridiculous mistakes in 2018.
He crazy. The line up is a bit thin - but the Switch will still sell well.
All they need is one Direct with dates for Metroid, Bayo and Fire Emblem in 2019 and all this will go away.
I would not Short Nintendo. This is just a hick-up.
@Agramonte No Netflix, YouTube or a working browser on a tech product such as the Switch in 2018 and 17 months after its release is passed "a hick-up". it's brown trousers time if you actually invest and its "stay away" time if you are an investor without stock.
To live in a world without shady braindead investors would be phenomenal .
@Razer I don't see how you can call their online service a mess when many of the details of switch online are still somewhat of a mystery. Also is the lack of netflix and youtube really a major factor considering you can easily access those services everywhere else also Switch does have Hulu you know. The reason they didn't include a web browser with Switch should be fairly obvious when you consider how rampant hacking via the browser was on Wii U
@NewAdvent If you think red dead can easily outsell Pokemon and Smash combined you clearly underestimate the selling power of smash and pokemon. Not every game released has to be a major system seller either. What matters really is that Switch is receiving a consistent influx of quality titles. Yes 2018 isn't like 2017 but hoping it would be like last year is highly unrealistic. Still its a far cry from the Wii U days where we had to go for months with nothing noteworthy in between
All nintendo has to do is show some metroid prime 4 gameplay and the investors will be happy again lol
@Agramonte
I don't think is as simple as that.
I have no doubt on Bayonetta3. I can bet that the game will be a great game. Now do you think that Bayonetta3 is gonna reach a big audience? Not sure.
Metroid Prime 4 is not made by RetroStudios and, for the moment, the 2 NON-RetroStudios Metroid games were a catastrophy... So dunno about you, but with that said and the fact that we saw ONLY a logo since last year... hummmm... you know what I mean...
About Fire Emblem, it's like there is something wrong with the overall presentation. Almost like something is missing, like the game is dull sort of... I dunno how to explain better but from my perspective, Nintendo needs to urgently do what they didn't during the E3 Direct : Showing NEW GAMES that give the need to play/buy the system.
@Jeronan
The Wii U had a dreadful 1st year, that was what killed its already limited chances of success. It launched with a 2D platformer, a mini game collection, ZombiU and a big stack of multiplats featuring worse performance than on 6/7 year old hardware that was being superseded the following year. It got nothing first party at all for 8 months then nothing AAA until November 2013. Sales fell off a cliff, third parties ran for the hills very quickly and by the end of 2013 it was doomed.
Wii U peaked in its second year when at least the interminable gaps between releases were punctuated by the likes of MK8, Smash, Bayonetta 2 and DKC. Switch is doing the reverse. In first party terms a weaker second year (so far) but with increasing third party support.
Switch's year one was objectively a massive success, which spurred a lot if uncertain publishers to take the dive into creating games for the system, though it may take a couple years to get them out. It would be kinda silly to expect Nintendo to be able to top the BoTW+MK8+Odyssey+Splat 2 line up they had going.
Year two has been good so far, but obviously nearly as astounding as the first year. Smash and the Let's Go games should keep the Switch afloat just fine to finish off the year.
Year three is the big one to watch for. A lot of first party nintendo games that have been teased are due out 2019, and if those games (Metroid 4, Yoshi, etc) end up being failures, then that'll mark the end of the Switch's golden age, and it will be buried under the next gen. But, if they're big hits and reinvigorate the player base, then the Switch should be able to withstand Sony and Microsoft dropping a PS5/Xbox announcement.
@electrolite77 I don't think people seem to notice that third party support with Switch has been much greater than before
@Razer Well Tomorrow we get an actual glimpse see how things are going.
@SBandy
Given how many people are commenting on it I’d say it’s your post that’s pointless. If you don’t want to read it, fine. Ignore it. But it’s not up to you to decide what this site reports on based on your own preferences.
Let the big guns out of the cage:Release smashbros, pokemon anounce alot of new big hitters, crossovers first second and third party games.
make the people beg for more from Nintendo
@Hyrule Apologies, I stand corrected (I was thinking of another user on here!). I shall delete my comment
@electrolite77
Yes but I can say what I think of it. Which I did.
As a switch gamer, I’ve spent more money on Switch related games, accessories then any other console I’ve had ever. I don’t feel a lull in games since I got it launch day. 57 games on mine alone, 2 of my boys have a switch with 10-15 games each too.
Investors are only interested in quick money and don’t want the minimal returns Nintendo stock pays. One thing I wouldn’t do though is bet against Nintendo. I can see 100million switches in 5-6 years.
@Jeronan
Agree 100%
The only people I consider worse than Wall Street scumbrooker and Banker trash, are literal terrorists and rapists. I literally consider them only one step above the worst of the worst humans alive.
Regardless of the roll they play in society, they disgust me.
@Wolfgabe 17 months after release and still having a "mystery" surrounding your online infrastructure is exactly why their stock is all over the place. Thanks for pointing out my point, i didn't go into more depth on it because it is like you said, a "mystery". investors don't invest on "mysteries and question marks", thats what gamblers do.
The lack of Media content such as YouTube or Netflix shows a reluctance to embrace media, to investors it doesn't matter whether every single product on earth can play Netflix, if one product tries to break that norm, it will go either very bad or very good.
The problem with Nintendo taking those types of risks at this stage is fool hardy to say the least, a company like Nintendo needs to stick to guns it knows will fire, and accepted media platform in 2018 includes Netflix, YouTube, a working browser and even Amazon Prime is starting to enter that spectrum.
We are talking about why investor confidence is low. Investors want to see stability and continuity rather than risk and uncertainty, in a company like Nintendo that recently just went through the WiiU (a total disaster in every sense), they need a lot less of the latter.
Their hacking problem is also a reason why investor confidence is anything but healthy but how they combat that is a totally diff issue and i agree with their stance of banning all known hackers anyway.
@kurtasbestos Haha! So this should be a site for people with only good things to say about Nintendo/Nintendolife? Why is it that a lot of people on this site get's REALLY offended when someone actually has a legitimate critical thought/comment about a story/article or about Nintendo as a company? I happen to think that Nintendolife has gone downhill the past couple of years both in content and about being critical of Nintendo's way of doing business. I actually think the comment section is way more interesting than the actual articles.
Sad
@Cobalt All those things are true to a point. And we still have a good chunk of 2018 to go - where the competition are going to bombard the market starting in September. I am not one to defend the lineup fully. There is no way around the fact it is thin.
But I still think If they can rev up the Marketing machine and build some excitement they be in a better spot. Nintendo cant be this quiet about what is in the pipeline.
Who knows - they could have some supply channel data that points at bad news in tomorrow's report 🤔
@NewAdvent
I’m going to go a bit Plotkin here but I’m willing to bet actual money that Switch outsells Xbox One this FY. And that RDR2 won’t outsell Pokemon and Smash combined (certainly not prorated for user base size). And I say that as someone looking forward to RDR2 much more than the other two.
Serious question/discussion point-that list of games you posted - “Red Dead 2, CoD, Battlefield V, Assassins Creed, Spiderman, Fallout, Forza, Tomb Raider, Dragon Quest, Spyro & Just Cause.”
Apart from Spyro, and ignoring Forza and Spidetman as they’re exclusive, which of those do you think would make any impact on Switch? Maybe the presence of COD would make investors feel a bit better because of the size of the name. But how many users would opt for a mangled Switch version over buying it for their existing system? Maybe I’m underestimating the number of people desperate to play Battlefield on the toilet (though you can already do that even if its not as easy as it would be on Switch) but it seems to me that if Switch does flounder it’s down to lack of first party.
@NewAdvent
See, this is where you're inherently wrong. Ports and late re-releases ARE console sellers on Switch specifically. The entire on-the-go premise makes them such.
That, and MHGU is essentially the first and only time we're seeing the Generations "endgame" (G-rank has only been available for Japan, and is essentially a whole new "game" as far as content goes. Always has been. And Monster Hunter has always been a console-seller.)
I don't really know why you think people have better/more important things to spend their money on. They spend their money on what they want. I wanted Dragon Ball FighterZ for example, really badly (massive Dragon Ball fan), but when Switch owners were told "nah, no plans for that" I voted with my wallet and said nah. I'll get it, because they'll release it on the Switch. It's gonna come.
Many people wait for the games to come to the proper system, and a lot of people double-dip, especially with the Switch enabling handheld on-the-go play for MANY games that were previously stationary-only. Not to mention the fact that the entirety of Japan despises home consoles and mainly play on-the-go. Instant system sellers.
Octopath hasn't proven anything but being ripped off the shelves, that's what. Just because sales don't surge for the hardware, it doesn't mean that a certain game didn't influence the purchases by a lot. It just means the majority of the buyers were apparently already on the fence and for some reason decided to take the plunge now or wait till later.
You can say what you want about these games, but one look at Hollow Knight shows just how much power Switch holds with the handheld aspect. An indie game by a small developer, breaking a million downloads on Switch within a month. More than a year old when it was ported, too.
I can appreciate the fact that you think they games I mentioned are niche, because some of them are, but quality games still sell.
Sadly, so does garbage games. As you mentioned, XB1 & PS4 might shift more sales with their yearly surge of garbage releases like CoD/BF/AC... and a great deal with the quality releases like RD2/DQ/Spyro/Tomb Raider and so on. It just means that they're seeing good sales on quality releases, while satisfying the mindless sheep that is the crowd buying the same game yearly with a minor graphical update or a new "feature"... (Or writing so uninspired one might off oneself after mere minutes in its presence - Sorry AC, used to be great back in the day)
I'd never deny that PS4/XB1 would have great holiday sales, but even if Nintendo's aren't as great, it has no significance concerning the amount of content Nintendo is offering on the Switch during this second half of 2018.
But we weren't discussing who was winning in sales, or who had more console-sellers. We were discussing how the second half of 2018 was looking for Switch, and, as is apparent, it is looking STELLAR. Not with first parties, but overall.
@Razer
I agree on the issues with Online and lack of media apps. It’s amazing they’re so behind. They have been ever since Iwatas ‘nobody wants Onkine games’ facepalm back in 2004 but they really should have caught up by now.
It’s such a basic selling point to be missing too. “Buy a Switch and you don’t need to buy that tablet, this has got Netflix and YouTube with good parental controls”
Ninty need to make more amiibo, announce new games that fans want and not crap, big updates for games, online service that will be great with lots of savings and deals, and more games! Lol
@Agramonte
I wonder if he’s got wind of the figures tomorrow coming in below guidance
Wonder why people say E3 2018 sucked and then turn around and say E3 2016 was great when that literally only had Zelda. E3 2018 had more games revealed than E3 2016 lmao.
Who cares even, Nintendo will be fine. They're really good at defying expectations, for better or worse.
This is just a stupid stock brokers game.
Nothing compared to playing Breath of the Wild.
@Hyrule And I think it's a great article about a fascinating subject : the crazyness of extreme capitalism in all its glory. And people holding the reigns of that not knowing a thing about a company strategy.
I think a lot of people have also missed something. What makes you think that just because that are no announcements up until December means that's the end of all announcements? Nintendo doesn't follow the traditional year end. Any investor worth their salt would actually know that. They would also know, if they had been paying any attention, that Nintendo doesn't generally release information that far off from the actual release date and release information multiple times in a year (rather than focusing on one event).
We won't know anything regarding the 4th quarter until a bit later this year, and quite frankly I'm going to bet it won't be until after Smash and Pokemon as they'll focus all of their marketing on those games up until their release dates.
@electrolite77 this is a good 80% of the reason why at this stage investors are worried, i would also venture to guess this is exactly why 3rd party devs are playing coy with the system.
It's hard to invest time or money into a product that is missing key media features in 2018, this is from both an investor stand point and a developer stand point (i am not a developer but i would imagine they feel the same).
I'd say the other 20% comes from Nintendo being Nintendo and generally being a company that takes risks, so 20% will always waver regardless of how Nintendo is doing at that time.
Further proof that Wall Street types are the absolute worst scumbags around.
@ConanLives
Buying developers is a huge gamble though, as demonstrated many times over the years. You can buy the IP, the buildings, the equipment but imyou can’t guarantee the people will stay. Look at MS and Rare.
Well, for what's coming, there's Mario Party, Pokemon, and Smash, games that have proven to sell at least a million units each-though sales don't usually have a direct affect on stock. Beyond that, the big selling point will probably be with the Online and any features hidden behind that, as well as it being officially available. Beyond what we know, there'll be a reveal for more free playable games, likely SOME sort of update for the phone app (I'm hoping for a Switch version to make it simpler to use) and whatever special deals and offers are given-probably just some discounts, but it wouldn't surprise me if Nintendo started offering something like themes and gave them out free to users.
We'll see how this bet plays out-best to just wait and watch. It seems like even some experts have trouble keeping track of the stock market.
The industry would be a lot different without shareholders, I'll bet
@electrolite77 yeah... that is the only thing I can think of. There is something coming tomorrow
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/schedule/index.html
They think (or know) there is something in that "Jul. 31, 2018 - Three Months Earnings Release" that will put pressure on the stock 🤔
@Alikan I pray for you, Smash player who uses items.
I thought For Glory was the only way.
@Ernest_The_Crab I'm actually thinking that an August/September Direct might be coming. Pure speculation, it just feels like a good time to make some announcements, and fill out the end of the year a bit more, preferably before the last three months which each have their own First Party games. There's also the Online, which people have been waiting SO long for. A Direct would be the best way to get the information out, since it'll grab the most attention that Nintendo can get.
Just guess work, though.
Never underestimate Nintendo, Mr Plotkin...
Great strategy, really. Bet big on a drop during a downward movement. Generate uncertainty to increase odds of said drop. Buy like crazy when it drops. It's a risk but with a big reward.
Investors are only subspecies of mammal more vile than lawyers. At least lawyers occasionally are useful.
@Jeronan No, the first year of WiiU featured a strong launch lineup, of mostly late port 3rd party games but little from Nintendo itself, short of release window games that were for delivery almost a year later. However, following the November release, content halted (do we need to re-hash the NL news feed of "Project Cars", "Dennis Dyack", "EA Says", etc. etc. etc.?) It was a drip feed of one unloved 3rd party game a month for months, then Lego City and MH3U, then basically nothing until Pikmin in Aug/Sept. Then a tepid Christmas. The momentum on WiiU dropped 3 months after launch with the Rayman delay/multiplat. At that point PS4/X1 were out and developers moved to x86 for good.
Switch on the other hand had a banner first year, with strong and escalating retail sales, and a deep lineup of games (few first party but a roster of 3rd party, capped with Pokemon and Smash, something WiiU never got, and something WiiU didn't get until 2 years when it was already half dead) with several big games we already know about still looming, and a lot of promise from Japanese third party (especially Square-Enix and NIS, and of course Atlus already working on their flagship franchise) Very very very different from WiiU.
@Syrek24 I'm convinced the people who keep saying how thin the lineup is this year are the people that already bought Switch as a "second console", and therefore only bought it to play Nintendo games. For those people it is indeed thin...because Nintendo finally has third party. But then what are these people complaining about if they only bought it as a second console in the first place?
@Syrek24
It's not thin, but this is the internet, so...
@Richard_Atkinson None needed, honest mistake and I know the user you are thinking of. I'm more than happy to own up to my mishaps, but also bring the receipts when needed Nothing but love for NL since 2012, even when I disagree with the opinions
You guys remember when we loved playing and talking about games...... I miss those days. 😁😁😁😁😁😁
@electrolite77 If the Switch doesn't sell much better than the Xbox One for the year, it would be a travesty. The Xbox One's market is so much more limited....
Also, the total sells for Red Dead Redemption 2 will probably be roughly the same or worse than both Let's Go and Smash Bros. Though Let's Go is a little more of a question mark because it's not a mainline game.
If Nintendo were not so closely guarding details and telling us next to nothing about game releases, then investors would be more confident in Nintendo and more relaxed. I mean the online is now only a month away, and we still don't know all about it. I mean, we don't even know how cloud saves are gonna work, and I really wish they would tell us how they work. Hopefully this will be what gets Nintendo tobe more willing to release information.
@Syrek24 If im honest I've always thought the approach Nintendo has taken with their games is the way forward for them, i'd venture to guess that we will soon see the fruits of the Indie labor being put into the Switch at the moment.
in other words solid AAA quality but indie games exclusive to the Nintendo Switch. 4 or 5 of those on one system would be system sellers and if Nintendo continue on this trend of strong indie support, we could see a solid 20+ exclusive AAA quality indie games.
That prob wont start until the latter half of 2019 though so until then Nintendo needs to continue the strong indie support and we need to continue supporting Nintendo.
But i did mention in an earlier post, i genuinely do not think games are the reason why this is happening. This is all about other areas that Nintendo are failing in...
@Andrew5678 That's a good point. They may have some major 3rd party titles that have online features which they want to announce as part of the online initiative. Probably a first party surprise tossed in there for good measure at the end of the presentation given how their other presentations have gone.
@Blizzia Free speech has nothing to do with it. From his comment, it's clear that Hyrule is either predisposed to being negative, or he doesn't fully understand the article he's commenting on.
@Hyrule Thank you and thanks for your continued support!
We'll see how things play out, but there's absolutely no question that Nintendo's weak E3 presentation (sorry, Smash Bros. Ultimate and Super Mario Party alone do not a satisfactory 4th Quarter make) had a lot to do with this. Investor concerns tend to follow consumer concerns, and a fantastic first year for the Switch still isn't making anyone forget how Nintendo bungled the Wii U with months on end between major first party titles.
Right now a lot of people seem to be banking on whatever Nintendo announces for Switch's online service to save the day. While I hope it'll be enough as much as anyone, the realist in me says that games need advance marketing and hype, and with the date fast approaching we still haven't heard a peep. Don't expect anything "megaton" is what I'm saying. At best maybe an online-enabled Animal Crossing iteration (which would be very welcome), but if so don't be surprised if it doesn't release at the launch of the service.
Bottom line: 2019 will be absolutely critical for the Switch.
@smashboy2000 I think its apparent here that investors mainly think short term as opposed to a company like Nintendo who mainly focuses on the long term strategy. Nintendo has their reasons of course for keeping their cards close to their chest until they feel they are ready
@Syrek24 That list basically made my point. You also forgot Flipping Death and Battle Chasers.
You just have a different definition of "Big Game".
@Syrek24 Oh believe me people will probably use the excuse of "Those games don't appeal to me."
Also I find it odd how investors seem oblivious to the fact Switch has basically reinvigorated the Japanese market
@NEStalgia I think you hitting it on the nail There.
Also, as a "second console" there is more competition/availability for those $60. I do not think it is they buy it for 1st party - But 1st party Nintendo games are big enough to catch their eye when they look at was is available to them. They can compete (and beat) anything from any studio out there.
@Agramonte The easiest one is Switch hardware, if it's not on track the stock will tank even though Pokemon Let's Go in Q3 and Q4 will likely make up for any reduced progress in Q1 and Q2.
@Grumblevolcano Yep... and "on track" is subjective.
Honestly they probably short it and later use the profit to load up at the depressed price for the eventual quarter bump.
@Syrek24 Thanks for taking the time to make points that some of us just don't have the energy to do anymore. The library is thin only if you limit your count of first party games to non-ports and third party games to Western AAA games.
A good game is a good game. It's such a simple concept.
This guy owns like 7% of Nintendo's stock. Him short selling Nintendo's stock almost singlehandedly caused Nintendo's stock to dip back in June.
@Ernest_The_Crab If I had to make a guess for what a Direct could entail, Dark Souls Remastered getting a release date would make sense, since it was delayed, and Activision has been "leaking" a Spyro reignited port for Switch. Other than that, Panic Button (behind Doom and Wolfenstein 2 ports) have insisted that they have other projects in the works and, with Bethesda being solid in support, I'd make a bet on the first Wolfenstein being ported-but that's as far as I want to speculate on third party games.
As for first party titles... an online focused game to release with the official service in September would make sense, but I can't think of an established IP that would fit there. Off of the top of my head, Animal Crossing has been fairly quiet, but that's a game that's a system seller, so releasing it around when Smash comes out seems unlikely.
Again, more speculation, but it can be fun to try and figure out what comes about, even when expectations can be tossed out of the window at a moments notice.
Wall Street tends to speculate. Alot. That's all these guys do. They have no inside information.
I think Nintendo is operating against the short term, instant news garbage infecting most media, and laying out stuff slowly at 6 month intervals. Right now, they have Monster Hunter arriving at the end of August followed by the online service. This is a big deal. And there is a consistent stream of retail releases weekly. Unlike the Wii U, where I lost all faith after the release of Smash, I have full confidence in Nintendo again, mainly just from holding and playing the console. I am guessing speculators on Wall Street have yet to physically interact with the console, and don't realize this thing is guaranteed money for years to come.
The lack of a proper E3 is the main culprit, you can't hope to ride your E3 wave to the bank with just a Pokémon Light and a Smash Bros that we know is not just a port but a proper new game, but which at the time looked like just "Smash 4 with all characters" (and I insist on the "at the time"). Practically zero announcements from third parties at E3 for Switch, at least in Nintendo's own presentation (Grim Fandango and Tales of Vesperia both got confirmed, but not in Nintendo's presentation).
And then... games getting pushed back like Dark Souls + games that are indeed announced are always getting announced as coming much much later than other platforms + games that COULD run on Switch easily are announced for everything but Switch like Spyro trilogy or Shenmue 1+2... and then the lack of any big announcement in the months following E3 either.
When is the next Direct Nintendo? It is time to call for the heavy artillery... don't you think?
These shareholders opinion pieces, mostly concerning about general feelings of Nintendo’s E3 show, sound a bit like advertisements for Switches fall, keenly anticipated by many businesses.
Yeah, this article is pretty pointless. It says nothing of Nintendo's financials and is based on speculation. Oh well, shame on me for clicking, lol.
@Jeronan I'm talking about mainline Nintendo games with shareholder friendly practices. I personally don't want Microtransactions though.
@Alikan I think the stock confidence will be restored once November rolls around. After Pokemon drops and sells like crazy the stocks will "mysteriously" shoot back up. Then in December with Smash drops it may "mysteriously" shoot up again. Take care.
@ConanLives
Well was thinking these could work.
1 Wayforward (Shantae & mighty switch ips. )
2 guys behind fast racing neo (revive f-zero)
3 Grezzo (did the zelda ports and ever oasis
"Second year-lull". Well considering the Switch's second year didn't start until March I'm not too worried. It's called SUMMER! When sales of pretty much every console ever have slowed down. This Fall/Holiday season the Switch will be flying off the shelves again.
Apologists out in full force today. Nintendo could be declaring bankruptcy and you all would be blaming Nintendolife.
I notice every time one of these articles about Nintendo's stock being low pops up, there's always mention of the Wii u for comparison. Problem with those Wii u comparisons are, there was no Zelda game for the system wind waker hd does not count as a system seller and there werent many available until well after launch and the name was just terrible and probably did the most harm since many probably didn't see it as a brand new system but an extension of the Wii, like the ps3 or Xbox 360 slim versions, with a game pad that made the price go up.
The Wii u did start them back down a path of getting more 3rd parties on board and we can see that with the current lineup of switch titles and how well some Indie games are doing, I was debating buying dead cells on my Xbox but Ithink I'm going to be playing all of those on the switch from now on, really just waiting on moonlighter and if pyre will make its way into the eShop along with freedom planet 2 before year's end.
@Jeronan Agreed, we need continued variety and innovation. But if I look back to when Yoshi's Woolly World and Xenoblade Chronicles X came out on the Wii U, it was happy days for me as a gamer, but not good times for Nintendo's share price. Nintendo need big-sellers as well as the critical darlings if they want to impress the investors.
"According to Bloomberg data, this is the largest trade against Nintendo since at least 2013 (shortly after the Wii U's disappointing launch)."
So what you're saying is, this is the first time this has happened since the last time this happened... yeah, this doesn't concern me one bit.
Nintendo has been doing so much right, people have got to be asking for the moon for this point if they're not satisfied. Sure they have a few kinks in the online department, but imo people are just being too demanding.
Insider information? Nintendo will soon be releasing the quarterly results. If they are lower than target as a few analysts are predicting it will drop.
@westman98 I would like to see his buying record after his very public shorts. I can smell market manipulation a mile away. Knew a guy that barely escaped getting put away after his firm was doing this routinely. Believe it or not, the SEC isn't fond of that. But only if it's done in scale. (Edit: Correction, the case I'm thinking of was the other way around. Buying junk stocks in bulk to inflate share values, recommending the buys to clients on the up-swing, then dumping the whole bundle at the peak, sending it spiraling, and losing the client's value. Either way, market manipulation through bulk transactions is industry standard in the investment business, illegal, but only wrong if you're caught (and didn't pay off the right people.)
@Syrek24 Yeah, the pattern I noticed about "thin content" is nobody talks about third party, they always list only Nintendo content they're missing. (Then again, to be fair to them, Nintendo presented their E3 very badly, glossing over all the 3rd party content and only talking about their own content for the most part.)
@jbreez00 and it has heck all to do with anything is good or not, the reality is the WiiU was the last time Nintendo stock was this volatile in the market place. I'm not sure why people in the comments aren't understanding and why it means this a negative article. It's stating fact go look at the market data.
In other words, someone is trying to artificially manipulate the stock market for his own personal gain. Isn't that basically illegal?
@Syrek24
The problem to me is that while 3rd party/indie games are better on the Switch than previous Nintendo consoles, they are still relatively poor compared to the other consoles. So for somebody who only owns a Switch, this could be a good library. But you likely wouldn't buy a Switch over the competition unless you were a big Nintendo fan or needed portability. Others like myself have multiple consoles and have had access to most of these games for a while and don't think it's worth the double dip for portability.
If someone loves the upcoming lineup, great. I don't try to convince someone what they should like. But to me this lineup isn't great and I'll likely spend more $ on the other systems this year.
@jbreez00 i didn't read anything else you said past the first 4 lines but just so you know, breath of the wild was developed for the wii u and ported to the switch...
@Mountain_Man "It's only wrong if you're caught." That's pretty much the founding principle of the entire financial and political industries. Palm greasing works as well now as it did 1000 years ago, unfortunately. Another day on Wall St.
@Bsmittel "The WiiU" was a year and a half ago. Recurring leadership changes also plays a role here as well. Yamauchi on the board + Iwata was a stable ship. With Yamauchi and Iwata dying in close proximity during WiiU, there was additional turbulence with Kimishima's transition and the silence. Now he's transitioning out, more turbulence.
Also keep in mind the amount of buy-in for mobile (with intend to STEER the company hard into mobile to cash in on their IPs in the short term.) The stock is in a volatile state in part because the industry is volatile and Nintendo gets to feel the ever changing tides of which way the money winds are blowing.
Plus, to be clear: This guy/firm is engaging in quasi-illegal market manipulation. Watch his buy back within the quarter. I say "quasi-illegal" not because it's not flat out illegal, but because it's rarely ever prosecuted due to how hard it is to nail these guys down. Simple scheme, but it only works if you're a really big player that can single handedly move the guidance with a single transaction. $400M ought to be enough to do the trick. This move will cause uncertainty. Others will sell as a result. The value will lower as a result. Great time to take your $400M and put it back in, getting 10-15% more shares for free, and cashing out a nice dividend in the process. Very illegal. Near-impossible to prosecute. A sadly common occurrence. We live in an awful world....
@NEStalgia your latter point about the way Nintendo treated 3rd parties is exactly a reason why they will always have issues getting 3rd party support.
This is because Nintendo will always place their own 1st party games ahead of 3rd and 2nd parties.
@Razer
It is odd. If they’ll forget something as obvious as media apps, what else will they forget?
@roboshort
I actually think Let’s Go is going to clean up, precisely because it’s not a mainline game and has more of a casual focus. I genuinely think it’s going to sell absolutely loads.
@Razer Very true. Sega did the same thing. It hurt them, but it was the last of a series of self inflicted wounds that alienated partners, retailers, and consumers alike, and when they did it, it wasn't subtle , but a direct attack against their partners. Sony straddles the line a bit with doing that.
The trouble is Sega's games weren't really popular enough to try to do that. Nintendo doesn't build consoles for 3rd parties, they build it for themselves and for their close first parties (Square, Capcom for unknown reasons, Sega ironically...) For them, though it works. They form this symbiotic relationship with select companies where their platforms are an island ecosystem apart from the wider industry. People complain......but they complain while handing them money still....because at the end of the day they're still selling what all the complainers want.
I love my switch for the portability. I will more than likely buy a game for my Switch over PS4 or PC because most of my time is sitting on a train weekdays on the way to work, so I game on the go, which is the most beautiful thing about the Switch.
@Razer I feel the whole "It doesn't have media (Youtube, netflix)" a moot point. With how common and cheap smart TVs are now. (I just got one 42" 4k for $100) I don't need my gaming consoles to have media. The switch is all about portability. Even if it had the media it is not like you can do that on the go unless you have wifi and/or a mobile hotspot. On the train, where I use my switch the most, doesn't have either wifi or a possibly expensive hotspot.
That's why hat happens when half your lineup is ports of your previous device's games. It will come back though unless competition is announced.
@NewAdvent
Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see one of the Western pubs give it a go and release a big AAA title day and date, I just really doubt the market for it. You touch on it yourself, there will be a drop in resolution, a drop in frame rate, multiplayer might not work properly, you might not get the whole game on the cart. So the market is people who will buy on Switch instead of other Console or PC (which actually is no use to publishers as it’s just cannibalisation of existing sales). But then who’s to say that a lot of Nintendo’s market won’t ignore a COD or BF in favour of an Octopath Traveller/Mon Hun/Valkyrie Chronicles because that’s genuinely what they’d prefer? If it’s Western AAA you’re after third party support is thin but for everything else the Switch is actually getting very strong third party support.
Like I say, I’d love to see it. The more the merrier. And I’m surprised we’ve not seen more last gen ports like Skyrim but I’m not convinced it will be worthwhile.
@NEStalgia
The problem with the model of creating hardware for 1st party and a few select 3rd parties is fewer and fewer people people are willing to pay the Nintendo premiun each generation. Unique hardware Wii/DS/Switch have been the only generations to increase Nintendo's marketshare. We are a ways from Switch 2, but if it's largely the same but with a stronger processor, I think it will continue the train of losing marketshare. Nintendo has put themselves in a position where their success hinges on innovation while their competitors can get away with a couple of generations of status quo. I'm not a fan of Nintendo's reliance on innovation because true innovation each generation is unlikely and they have a model where some generation failures like the Gamecube/Wii U are likely.
@Cobalt The two NON-Retro Studios Metroid games?
So...
Metroid
Metroid II
Super Metroid
Metroid Fusion
Metroid Zero Mission
Metroid Prime Pinball
Metroid Prime Hunters
Metroid Prime Federation Force
Metroid Other M
Metroid Samus Returns
Are all disasters?
@electrolite77 Yep, PC does cannibalize to an extent. I had DQ for PS4 until GreenManGaming ran their Summer Sale and had it at $44 for PC. So jumped ship.
Same as Ninokuni 2 and Wolfenstein 2. The PC simply pulled a sale I already had on PS4.
@Knuckles-Fajita
Since retro is doing Metroid games dude...
*doubled
Man...that Mario Tennis/Bowser Jr. backlash is INTENSE.
@cleveland124 While they may rely on innovation.....that's what they are. What else would they do? Race into the same crowded market that Sony/Sega, Sony/Microsoft occupy? How many PC clone platforms could survive the market? Even 2 is really too many with only one really thriving at a time. And as the "streaming" craze is pushed and the PC clones become somewhat redundant, innovation is the only thing that could save the console space, while Android & iOS & Linux thin clients would really carry everything else.
If they were to stick with the tech arms race they needed to set out in that direction in 1996. Once the N64 came out, they were out of that market for good, both by choice and casualty. There's a certain age group that thinks of N64 as a Nintendo golden age, but it was really the beginning of the downturn. SNES was the golden age. And even that was a downturn from the NES.
It's a little unfair to look at their marketshare since they simply have increasing competition. Sony's marketshare numbers are inflated because Microsoft, their only direct competitor messed up so badly they took themselves out of the race....similar to PS2's success versus Saturn. They gobbled two markets for a generation. In part because they watch the competition and simply undercut them every year (next cycle, MS might beat them at their game by changing the console cycles.)
Largely I think, against Sega, N would have been happy to keep a tit for tat game going. Once Sony moved in in force, you had to either directly compete against them, or stay out of their way. And at the time nobody could stand up to that kind of market force. Sega tried and burned themselves out. Nintendo just stepped aside and did something else. It worked. From that point on they have to make the best of being the different platform.....and it's working pretty well. GameCube failed because it was one more attempt at taking on Sony without the funds behind it. WiiU failed because of a myriad of reasons. But the failures are less common than the successes. They may sell less, but they also control costs more.
I don't think Nintendo is interested in "marketshare" at all really. They're just focused on revenues over costs. Ultimately it's more profitable than a huge marketshare at low margin per sale currently. Gamers focus on which console has the biggest hardware sales numbers and assumes that's what Nintendo cares about. Mostly they concern themselves with actual income.
Not unlike Apple. Google's Android implementation wipes the floor with Apple by market share. But Apple's still worth more than Google.
@Cobalt So Prime Pinball, Hunters, Federation Force, Other M, Samus Returns, Fusion and Zero Mission are all bad?
@NEStalgia
Profit follows marketshare though even if there isn't a 1:1 correlation. Nintendo barely made money during the Gamecube era and they lost money during the Wii U era. They made money hand over fist with the Wii/DS//Switch. So you can't ignore it and just continue to charge your existing base more in a declining market. For instance, if the Switch was only selling half as much you'd have to sell it for $600 to drive the same profit. That will lead to people leaving you faster and a quicker decline. Also your Android/Apple comparison isn't perfect. Because Apple locks their ecosystem to their own hardware and they are largely a hardware company. Android is a software system that runs on many different hardware solutions by many different manufacturers.
How many car manufacturers are there? How many places you can buy milk? I think the market can support Nintendo and two other manufacturers. It has thus far. The bigger risk is android/apple/pc as the reality is it's not a big 3 anymore and it hasn't been for some time. Nintendo's competitive advantage is there games and they use it as a crutch to not get third parties.
They have lots they could do to get third parties onboard and it would benefit them but won't because their culture isn't built that way. Pokemon go will be an interesting test case. From a profit standpoint it's likely that Go will beat the Pokemon coming for the Switch. It'll also be interesting to see how many Switch sales that game drives. With more competitors I can't see how Nintendo can have success ignoring the features the market demands. More likely though we'll start to see more of a shift to them supporting mobile more and that will be how they phase out the importance of their hardware.
@SBandy please don't. I really appreciate this type of article. If they don't interest you nobody is making you read them, but some of us find this stuff interesting.
This one actually had me wanting to go buy stock in Nintendo
@Aozz101x because japanese fps sucks
@leo13
If you are old enough to buy Nintendo stock you are old enough to ignore someone else's opinion, in this case mine, that these constant stories about the fluctuation of Nintendo's stock are nothing more than filler garbage. My view is only my view and doesn't stop you getting something of use out of this story. I personally just think the writer has recently seen The Big Short or something and now thinks they are an expert in the stock market.
You do you and I will do me.
@cleveland124 Profit follows marketshare assuming similar margin. Again using the Apple example, Apple is a SMALL fraction of Google (and Microsoft's) marketshare. But they're significantly more profitable, because they sell at such high margin it's almost all profit.
Nintendo's not QUITE that level of luxury good, but the idea applies. Granted Apple doesn't have a declining market, but we also don't know what Nintendo considers it's core market and what they consider peripheral market they account for fluctuation in. They also didn't lose money on WiiU hardware, it was a slight profit, or break-even depending on context. It's hard to figure out how much they lost on software development considering opex also included massive new real estate expenditure both on a new HQ and theme parks and organizational restructuring, so losses were burried inside other bigger expenses, however those were short term defects, not true losses as most of the software that "lost" in that era is being ported to switch where it's no doubt a net profit over expense in the long view. (All the port complainers don't seem to get that...)
Actually there's less and less car manufacturers as they continue to consolidate upward. Still quite a few, but the trend is consolidation in the crowded market, and that trend doesn't seem to be slowing. Fiat (already absorbed Chrysler) was already talking about how basically there's no money in cars anymore and the industry is looking to just hand those over to commodity car manufacturing in Korea and China and just focus on the luxury/SUV market. And that's a far larger market than video games. The car models as a market would be more comparable to software options than consoles. Consoles would be more comparable to how many car lots in one area are needed to sell the same brands of cars.
3 almost identical PC boxes from 3 companies would all be competing for the same market, cannibalizing each other, each just taking the crown from each other for a year or 3, while other technology + streaming works in from the periphery stealing the wider market around them. That would be a downward spiral for the one on the bottom of the heap. At least Nintendo carves their own market, and it overlaps the other markets at times. The bigger risk for Nintendo is their over-reliance on IP licensing with their new model, over actual product creation.
More likely I see Nintendo heading deeper and deeper into mobile, leading to conflicts and contradictions in their console space. But for them, competing head-on with Sony and Microsoft would be a major act of stupidity on the same level as if the Nintendo Play Station had actually come to pass.
@Knuckles-Fajita
Prime Pinball : Not a Metroid game but a pinball game with the univers of Metroid (spinoff)
Federation Force : Not a good Metroid from my perspective
Other M : Not a good Metroid from my perspective
Samus Returns : Remake of Metroid 2
Fusion : out just before PRIME ( but GREAT )
Zero Mission : Remake of Metroid
Hunters : You're right with this one, my bad ! ^^
I'd like to add that I was talking more in a way that the Metroid Prime trilogy was made by RetroStudios and knowing that the next one won't be made by RetroStudio scares me.
And especially after Other M in 2010 and federation Force in 2016.
But you're right with Hunter however if I can rephrase, I'd say more in this way :
"Metroid Prime 4 is not made by RetroStudios and, for the moment, the NON-RetroStudios/other internal Nintendo studios Metroid games were a catastrophy. "
Hope you'll understand even if I know that my english is not good enough to explain clearly my thoughts.
A lack of games on the Switch is what is making the market jittery. Either Nintendo has games that is won't release or its played all its cards and there is nothing new to release for a while.
The Smash Bros port is the Christmas release which will please as many gamers as it will disappoint; disappoint because there is nothing new. I guess they will have new Christmas Switches preloaded with Smash Bros in the hope of selling many more consoles to gamers who have not played last years games or ports.
The gamers who have played these games are being forgotten about.
I guess share holders also play games.
@NEStalgia
Let's be honest here. If Nintendo had the brand loyalty that Apple did the Wii U would have been a huge success as people would have said I can't do without the next Nintendo system. I get that they wish they were Apple and could over charge you for everything but history has proven they can't. I mean back to my example. Do you think Nintendo could convince the market to buy a $600 Switch? Apple probably could. If they could reach that they would become a market unto their own. But given the competition I don't see that happening.
Another reason Nintendo isn't like Apple is they don't have an integrative account . Some people won't leave Apple because all their games, movies, music is attached to their account which is accessed through new hardware. Can you imagine if your entire Nintendo games library back to the Nes was connected and playable on your Switch through an account? I might pay $600 for a Switch if that was the case.
@cleveland124 No, they're not directly comparable to Apple, (no one is.) But the idea that they've positioned themselves as a more niche but more premium and higher profit option, particularly in their software pricing strategy, is comparable in relative terms to their industries.
They're still extremely profitable, proving their strategy is not ineffective. Focusing on market share is a red herring. If you don't believe Nintendo, ask XBox. They're arranging their brand to cater to the market differently than market share, since it's clear Sony owns that.
@Pokeman_noob thanks for the info. good sir!
@NEStalgia
They weren't profitable during the Wii U era. So yeah it's a bit simplistic to say marketshare is everything. But for Nintendo's profit it has been. Plus I don't know how many times Iwata emphasized that the needed to return to Nintendolike profits in the financials. So a small profit isn't enough.
This news piece doesn't have the time frame for his prediction.
Just how short is his short bet?
@cleveland124
Nintendo were profitable during the third and fourth year of the Wii U, though of course that wasn't really because of the Wii U.
Share prices mostly relate to how much money people think they are going to make in the future, it doesn't always reflect the reality of the past. Though you can make money without your shares being valuable, sporting a high share price does give you a lot of wiggle room when paying for services (particularly when you own as many treasury shares as Nintendo does) and secures you against hostile takeovers.
@Pod
They had an operating loss of about $6 million over the 4 years. Either way though their best year during that time was $32 million operating income which is peanuts to a company the size of Nintendo. When asked at the board Iwata said the target annual profit should be at least $1 billion.
It is a tame second year. I know there are good/great releases this year, but just not for me. I have broken out my Vita again and my backlog of brilliant games on that is nearly impossible to tackle. Even my PSP provides more enjoyment right now.
In saying that, my kids are loving the Switch still, I suppose I am just getting picky in my old age.
@cleveland124 like i said though the losses in those years were from operating expenses. Software costs, yes, but also real estate in large scale, organizational changes, playing a substantial role, we don't know how much operating expenses was from software certain new ventures.
@NEStalgia
I'm not sure what you are trying to say exactly. If you are trying to say sales general and admin expenses was the reason for the loss you are wrong. SGA expense was about 1.76 billion in 2013 and 1.88 billion in 2016. That change didn't even keep with inflation and was relatively minor for a company hoping for $1 billion in profit. It was the worst 4 year period in the company history and it was due to the Wii U failing in the market. For comparison, in 2010 their SGA expense was $2.2 billion. So it seems the only reason they were close to break even during that period was their ability to shrink their overhead.
Acquisition and software development costs would be capitalized as well so that shouldn't affect the annual financials other than if they had nothing to sell for 4 years.
@NEStalgia if you think investors are useless, maybe read a bit about finance. How do you think companies raise capital?
@NEStalgia are you trying to claim taking a large position in a stock is illegal? Lol
Yeah not surprised, for the rest of the year there's basically no new games. Let's go Pokemon doesn't count.
@Blizzia I actually think the switch has the handbrake on as well. The line up for the foreseeable future is pretty poor.
@RailX vita, nice, I never got one of those. I have busted out my DS though and bought a few rpgs from eBay recently.
@bolt05 PSP is brilliant, Vita is highly underrated, so many great games (especially is you like niche Japanese stuff). I have a New 2DS for my DS/3DS itch but is has barely been used, mostly because 3DS games hold their used value too well.
@Hyrule @kurtasbestos - While I DO hear what you’re saying Hyrule, If talking about the profits and perceived value of a company, these particular brokers can know enough to make an educated judgment on whether the value will continue to rise or not.. They won’t be placing 400m shorts without sufficient research and ‘understanding’ of the outputs and inputs related to the company, which in reality, makes up for a part of what goes on in the market... not everything, but enough.
Like I said, I get where you’re coming from but it’s a fair article based on a real activity and given who has made the call and the size of it, the news is interesting (for some!).
I love the Switch but Nintendo IMO has dropped the ball in year 2 so far. Keep dicking around with the 3DS and a possible successor instead of turning the Switch into a juggernaut. Case in point, Luigi's mansion ported to the 3DS and not the Switch. They should also have a sequel to Zelda A link Between worlds already in place for the Switch as something in between the Wii U/Switch BOTW or a new Mario adventure. They seem to take their foot off the gas at times and stuff like this ends up happening. Their stock should be on fire right now with this system instead all you hear is negative talk.
@RailX yes agreed, I also have a bunch of psp games, I like the star Ocean games and final fantasy tactics, and tactics ogre. It's really expensive to get hold of a vita now so it's just put me off, but ai guess a preowned one from ebgames is less than a 3ds so it's probably not that bad.
@bolt05 Try Gumtree. There tends to be better deals on there than eBay and it is far easier to negotiate price with the seller.
@ReaderRagfish I feel that the systems best games aren't available elsewhere, certainly not portable.
@BouncingHat agreed.
All the Smash love is lost on me. Not much to look forward to come Christmas time for me.
@ReaderRagfish Ready for a wall of text?
It is a perfect retro portable for your PSP and PS1 games. Just going by what is one my Vita right now: Danganronpa series, Freedom Wars, Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth, Attack on Titan:WoF, Darkest Dungeon, Salt and Sanctuary, Dragon's Crown, Rogue Legacy.
Also in my library:
Street Fighter X Tekken, Sonic All Stars Racing, Actual Sunlight, Zero Escape, Blazblue, Uncharted, Gravity Rush, Soul Sacrifice Delta, Sly Cooper, Skullgirls, P4G, P4 Dancing, Helldivers, Toukiden Kiwami, Senran Kagura, Akiba's Trip, Muramasa Rebirth, Odin Sphere, God Eater, SteinsGate, Oddworld New n Tasty, Child of Light, Hotline Miami, Killzone Mercenary, Lone Survivor, Sine Mora, MGS3 HD, UMVC3, Guacamelee, Wipeout 2048 plus about another 30 misc titles.
I know a couple of these are on or coming to Switch, but the portability of this list is great imo. Obviously your tastes will be different to mine, but I have found great value and enjoyment from my Vita, aside from the backlog anxiety (and still have many more titles to purchase).
@Jeronan
I agree. I'm a huge smash fan and I was bored 5 minutes into the smash info. I wonder what happened to pikmin 4? Maybe it was in development for WiiU with a heavy focus on 2 screen gameplay.
@SBandy you're right, I will do me and one of the ways I'll do it is just like this. Going to the comments and making sure that the writers know I appreciate these stories. Just because you don't like them doesn't mean you have to insult the author. It was valuable info to some of us.
@RailX Sorry dude but I agree with @ReaderRagfish almost all the good games that you mention are available on PS4 I don't see the value of a PSVita other than portability.
In my opinion Sony is the way to go for consoles and Nintendo for handhelds but with the Switch horrible battery and other issues Nintendo it's loosing track on where they were the kings, the handheld market
As much as I love Nintendo, I'm concerned about the NS future would very likely be the same as previous consoles: lack of 3rd party support.
To be honest, I had high hope of playing decent AAA games on the NS in the beginning, although Nin has been trying to get more support from 3rd party but it seems that they are losing interests in the console: Bethesda has no plan for it after Wolfenstein 2, EA still keeps its half-assed FIFA for another year, no other games, Ubisoft is still very reluctant to release any major IP on Switch, From Software Dark Souls RM is still nowhere to be seen although everybody else is finished with it...
All we have for now is a bunch of very old games (Titanquest, really?) And buttload of indie craps.
@GKO900 That is fine and I completely understand, but I don't have a PS4, nor do I intend on ever getting one, therefore the Vita is perfect for me. The Switch has dropped the ball this year for my tastes. Next year looks like it will be ok, but people will be looking towards next gen in 2019. Who knows what will happen.
Thanks for being civil about this. You can't have these discussions somewhere like Kotaku.
@cleveland124 no i meant the overall expenses in that time frame for the new hq, team consolidation, theme park expansion, Dena merge, and qol (r&d then crash and burn).
And again the hardware did not lose money. Software did, but they're turning that to delays profit with ports to switch. You can't look at the 4 years term with companies that view things in 10, 20 year terms. 4 years of expenses without an immediate return, yes. But are those expenses showing delayed returns? Yes.
Yes that 4 year period was their worst, yes the product at the time was not selling which caused low yield in that time frame. But bring it out to 10 years. Wiiu at worst broke even. Software, let's say mk8, took a short term loss. But the release of said software (on Switch) shows positive numbers. Deferred return, but return all the same. Short duration investors get flustered. Long term investors get their returns. You're looking at that short term outlook which is disastrous in general, but just silly when talking Nintendo, a company that does long term thinking exclusively, and investors thinking otherwise are going to get quite a ride.wiiu years expenses lost nothing and returned profits, just not during the life of that hardware, and as a result, not as high of a yield as could have been. Ideal? No. Bad? Only if you're in for the short term.
@Nudawa a quick look at the hardware tells you it's not a machine to play aaa games meant for pcs and mini pc consoles. Not a knock against switch but that's just not what the machine was ever going to excel in. Getting some older aaa games is a nice perk, but it wasn't ever going to be a common thing for many many reasons. Switch was always going to get newer more "aaa" type versions of wiiu style and 3ds style games. Not ps4 style games. But I'd that a bad thing? 3ds+wiiu have pretty darned good libraries of things you can't really get on other consoles plus a little you can. Switch is getting more crossover with other platforms earlier than 3ds and wiiu had. Just ys8, disgaea5, shining resonance, valkyria, vespyria, crash, etc are a ton of cross platform games. People expecting Asassins Creed Odyssey and red dead 2 in switch really bought on wishful thinking more than what was shown. Switch is still fantastic for what it's meant to be.... The best in it's class by far. In it's class. It's not an xbox1x. It never pretended to be.
Well here I come again with my 2 cents worth. I still say the switch is a very flawed system. It's battery life is terrible, the wifi is abysmal, there's very few good games for it, the screen is awkward in handheld mode so many games are very poorly formatted, and all the stuff I hoped to get for it never came out, such as animal crossing which they put on mobile instead - and honestly that's okay because I've played it since November for FREE on my iPad which has a much, much better screen than the switch, and then there's the secret of mana release that they put on the Sony systems instead of switch, even though that was originally a Nintendo game. And then many of the games (almost all, actually), that DO come out on switch end up being incomplete and needing tons of updates and add-ons and whatever. I really am very, very disappointed in that system and rarely play it. Now my 3ds, on the other hand, I play that all the time. THAT is a good system. But they don't want to release games for that one, and all the switch fanboys whine and complain and have a hissy fit when they do put games out for the 3ds, saying that system is dead. So, Nintendo is in serious trouble. I predicted this quite a long time ago. It's sad to see, but oh well.
@NEStalgia
I think you are the only person that thinks Nintendo dropping from $15.4 billion in revenue in 2010 to $4.4 billion in 2016 is an expense issue. If you'd read the financial reports Iwata continually blames poor Wii U sales and unsustained 3DS sales as the culprit.
Most of the items you mentioned wouldn't have had a negative effect on the financials. Qol was mentioned in 2017 financials as still in development. Theme parks are a licensing arrangement by Nintendo so they aren't actively purchasing capital but are getting paid for the use of their copyrights . Dena shouldn't have been a loss either. Dena partnership wasn't announced until 2015 which was the first year in the Wii U era they made a profit. They wouldn't have had any losses on that until 2016 when Miotomo dropped. New headquarters operations would should up in SG&A which dropped after the Wii era. Most of that would wind up in capital anyways, which affects cash, but wouldn't create a loss.
In the IT industry things move quickly. Think blackberry. They were the king of phones and then they were nowhere. Plus, if you look back to N64, Gamecube Nintendo had a period of about 5 good years (Wii) out of the last 20. Yeah, they made money during N64 and Gamecube but the returns weren't great. When you only have 1 flagship product and it fails to the extent of the Wii U it throws up major red flags.
Plus, Nintendo never said they were making money on the Wii U hardware so I don't know where you are pulling that idea from. This is the last I can find which is about a year after launch where Nintendo confirmed they are losing money on hardware.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/arstechnica.com/gaming/2013/08/nintendo-wii-u-still-being-sold-at-a-loss/%3famp=1
They literally had no Wii U's on shelves from mid November 2016 until the Switch launched in March of 2017 which leads me to believe they never turned a profit on hardware. Literrally the only time I've seen this was with the original Xbox. But back then it was because Microsoft had a dispute with the GPU vendor and couldn't actually get the parts to produce more. I remember when they made there hardware forecast for 2016 many people thought it was very conservative. But it was actually just how many Nintendo approved for production. They killed it early.
@Alikan Does anyone know how old these investors are? Are they into gaming and just have a better understanding? It would be interesting to know.
@bolt05 Except it isn't. It's bloody brilliant. You're blind if you can't see it. That's the truth.
There are a ton of quality games coming out in the foreseeable future. I've listed some, and I can list plenty more. Just because there's nothing for you doesn't mean there's nothing. The Switch is going full speed ahead and doesn't seem to be stopping for any traffic lights.
Heck, if Nintendo has more stuff for 2018 we might just break the sound barrier.
@Hyrule NintendoLife has really suffered with the loss of Thomas Whitehead at the lead. You can see it through the crappy little articles they put out and the literal click bait tactics they employ. Furthered is the fact Tom's replacement, Dom, mentions Sony all the time in his articles which shows where his allegiances lie.
I came to this website during the Wii U days and it was a niche little community I came to enjoy a lot. However, I don't even visit the site daily anymore because of the lack of quality they have. I know it's harsh, but I think many would agree. I currently use Nintendo Everything for my simple news and then I venture off into YouTube for more Nintendo based analysis.
@cleveland124
You're certainly right on thise points. I'm just pointing out that '15 and '16 during the Wii U were both profit years, and that they certainly didn't rise from three years of operating loss because of anything to do with their share price.
@Nintendofan83 Couldn't agree more. I odn't know about allegiances and all, Dom is probably just a bit of both sides which is fair game honestly, but I feel like the quality has suffered greatly.
Once again, investors prove to be some of the most ignorant people out there. They fail to realize that Nintendo has presentations throughout the year, and they do not need to reveal everything at E3. We learned about Doom and Wolfenstein 2 coming to Switch post-E3 2017, why can't it happen again? Why are they selling stocks? Simple, because everyone of these investors thinks E3 2018 is relevant.
And....Nintendo beat expectations due to strong online sales of software.
@electrolite77 You could very well be right. If it appeals to those who played Pokemon Go, it could be huge. I hope it sells huge, despite not being too interested in it.
Sorry, i disagree.
@Razer Yeah, it’s been a year already and still no Youtube and Netflix. I always found that a bit odd considering the 3DS has them, but then again, the Youtube app wasn’t released until two years after the 3DS’s release. So I guess we’ll have to wait for another year to pass by then.
@Syrek24 Somebody has to state the truth, because the majority of the community seems completely delusional haha!
The year has been jam-packed and it just isn't stopping anytime soon. I've asked for one more week of vacation in return for doing overtime during the busy season where I'd do it (freely) anyway. Doubt I'll get through more than a few games on those 7 12-hour gaming sessions, buuut I'm doing my best Won't even dent the backlog though, will it now...
@Dr_Corndog On the contrary.
From his comment, it is evident that he thinks content as of late has been subpar to NL's and its readership's standards.
It is also evident that he understands the article he comments on, since he clearly indicates this kind of content is ridiculous, as the website staff constantly contradicts themselves with news that shifts from "Nintendo is doing AMAZING" to "NINTENDOOMED" every other day.
But to each their own.
@landren13 Unfortunately it doesn't matter what you or i think is a "moot point", investors don't take what we think into consideration.
All investors see is an entertainment media platform that has the capability to play many forms of media entertainment such as games, music, video ect ect... but is currently only being utilized for one. purpose, Games. Even that has limited access to 3rd party support.
Investors look at that product, then they look at another product with similar peripherals, that actually utilizes all forms of media entertainment available to it with access to many more games, with access to more support (like every single tablet and mobile currently on the market), and they invest in this instead.
if you think your "moot points" plays any bearing on this, then you have a lot more to learn about investments and business.
Investors don't stop and say "well theres loads of products that play these things anyway so the Nintendo Switch doesn't need it".... lol
I’m excited about one announced game. Metroid. I haven’t bought a game for Switch since Mario. I haven’t played my Switch in 2018. I’ll probably get Smash, but I won’t play it much. I keep coming here hoping to see a new announcement.
@cleveland124 I think we're talking past each other. Of course during that 4 year period total revenue was vastly reduced due to poorly selling products. My point is it was not a long term loss, merely a period of depressed profits. WiiU hardware did not take a loss, it was selling at a profit with a 1.2:1 attach rate, which it achieved. Software development (in the short term) was selling at a loss due to low total sales, however for most of those titles, that was only a deferred return as the re-release of those products years later on Switch turned them into positive gains over a longer period.
Nobody is arguing suppressed profits during that 4 year window, my point is that they did not take a loss, only suppressed profits. The quarters where losses were posted it was the result of operating expenses which included substantial new ventures.
If you're going to think like a short-term trader then sure you'll look at that 4-year window and think there were losses and general negative outlook. And that's where so much of investment goes wrong, this short term mentality of permanent growth and yoy returns. Investor minds seem to think like that for some unknown reason which flies in the face of the actual reality of a market economy. Investment has long been detached from reality and the effects are starting to show in a big way.
If you look at it not as a short investor but from an actual business perspective, or as a long term investor, you can't take just the snapshot of the 4 years duration of a failed product. It happens. You have to look at the long duration of how that period was corrected, how it's losses were re-purposed into new revenue streams, and how the total expenditures of that time were ultimately used for generating returns. Those 4 years were years of a failed product with low revenue and high expenses for new projects (including Switch.) But what did Nintendo do with that result? They produced a rapidly selling follow-up product, re-purposed those "loss" generating products into re-released million + seller products. If you average together that 8 year, or 10 year period (speculating ahead which is the whole point of this thread on investment) is that going to come out to a period of net gains or losses? That's what matters. Not an isolated 4 year snapshot showcasing one failed product, but the total company ability to handle such a situation and rebound from it that matters for the long view.
Honestly, anyone thinking in 4 year intervals, and worse, yoy intervals beyond considering the trends and patterns doesn't belong in investment in any capacity. Yet sadly that's become a huge makeup of investment. Put the money in, we'll talk in 30 years. Anything else isn't investing, it's gambling, unless we're talking VC, which really is also high stakes gambling.
Meanwhile in Japan....
Nintendo's on track to easily exceed the 20M units sales estimate, and has a software attach rate of 4.4:1 and growing and showed a notable profit increase yoy. So by all means, lets talk about 4 years ago as an indication of continued decline...
Edit: Correction, the 20M units goal is an estimate for year 2, so it's much too soon to estimate that target without seeing how hardware performs Q4 with LGP/E & Smash driven sales, plus the add-on effect of F2P titles Fortnite+Paladins+Warhammer, etc through the holiday season.
@Razer Investors in Nintendo should realize that Nintendo is exclusively a video game company. They aren’t Sony or Microsoft which have more than just games. If you invest into a company that exclusively makes video games you should realize they make games, and if they aren’t extending their resources into media and other forms of entertainment it isn’t going against their companies goal. Focusing efforts away from games would take away the needed resources to produce the games that push sales. Microsoft of course advertised and marketed as a full entertainment system. Nintendo has always marketed as a game specific with playing being included in many of its slogans over the years. Investors should know what they are putting money into and realize what the companies main mission is. I know well enough how business works to realize you invest in a video game company and they go away from making games then you should be worried.
I know the investors were worried about E3 and the “lack of games” Nintendo hasn’t really cared much about E3 for years because they have been doing Nintendo directs every two months or so to give updates on games, so they spelt out what their E3 presentation would be before E3 and when they followed through on what they said they would do investors freaked out for s company doing what they said they would do. If the investors got nervous over that, that is the investors problem for getting nervous over a company doing what they said they would do.
@landren13 lol go tell the investors that you don't like how they make their investments and you want them to change their ways.
go get em tiger... because i actually agree with you, completely, but that still doesn't change how investments and business is done in that space, so what of it? like i said, what you think is moot means nothing to them.
you can "not like it" all you want but nothing will change? Nintendo's stock will still continue to flounder and anything you or even i say will do anything to change that, only Nintendo acting on the investor fears, which do not change on your whim, and alter their course, will change how their stock does.
Maybe you could do an all caps tweet about how you don't like how investors do business and you want them to stop, signed "make Nintendo Great Again".
@NEStalgia
"WiiU hardware did not take a loss, it was selling at a profit with a 1.2:1 attach rate, which it achieved."
If you have to include software profits, that's not what I'd call selling at a profit. But either way, it's complete speculation on your part. Nintendo never indicated that Wii U made money but Wii U software lost money. Reggie only clarified later that he was wrong saying it only took 1 piece of software for Wii U to become profitable. He never gave it a specific number. And really if you are fully allocating costs (overheads), you couldn't. Because poorer sales would mean each sale has to cover more overhead.
"If you're going to think like a short-term trader then sure you'll look at that 4-year window and think there were losses and general negative outlook."
I was talking about a 20 year window where they didn't perform great in the market. The first 5 years of the Wii and here with the Switch are the only times that really show great growth potential for Nintendo. A small profit doesn't get investors excited. But you keep clinging to the fact that they were profitable 16 years out of 20 as a reason the losses don't matter.
"how it's losses were re-purposed into new revenue streams, "
That's not really a thing. The Wii U drained Nintendo resources for the 4 years they sold it, it didn't transform into the Switch. Nintendo is always working on the next console so I fail to see how them using some operational overhead during the Wii U era for the Switch makes the Wii U a success. Nintendo also learned during the Wii U era and applied some of those things to the Switch. But again, that's not mutually exclusive. They didn't need a failure to bring about the Switch. It would have been ideal if they took the lessons from the N64/Gamecube, and late life Wii and put those into the Wii U making that a success. Then continue to learn during the Wii U generation and put those things into the Switch and have it be even better than it is today.
Doomed! Nintendo is so Doomed!
@Alikan It just means when they announce all their unannounced games here soon in their Direct the people who did not sell will be really happy.
@cleveland124 Ahh I was unaware that Reggie's statement was later clarified, that does change the equation a bit.
Well "growth" potential in investment and the endless quest for it is the key area where the entire investment economy is severely broken. Eventually a company reaches stability. That should be a valued trait in a business, but in investment that's seen as a negative thing. At the point a company reaches stable maturity investors start pushing to cannibalize it to get instant results. Not Nintendo specific but that part of the entire economic equation is disastrously broken across the board, and the problems from it are mounting.
But nobody is pretending WiiU didn't fail, The point is every company selling retail products will experience market failures. It's a part of doing business. Companies that can rebound easily and show resilience are likely to show greater future success than ones that run in circles after. Nintendo has demonstrated they're a very stable money sink not likely to falter in the face of failure. So, how about those Facebook investments from all that growth potential they demonstrated....?
So... if there's anything I've learned personally from Nintendo's market share, is it's very volatile. It's goes sky high, below sea level, then back again. More than likely the uptick will come again once the online launches, so Nintendo needs to have a strong showing for that.
@BouncingHat Nice try, but Smash Bros. Ultimate actually doubled the sales of the Switch.
@Donkey-Kong-Fan if you think that I said that Metroid Prime 4 IS GONNA BE bad just because a different studio is developing it, you need to learn how to read !
I expressed only a fear. That's all ! ^^
There is a big difference between an affirmative sentence and an interrogative one.
@Cobalt What reason do you have to be "scared" of Bandai Namco developing Metroid Prime 4?
@BouncingHat Source: https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2018/07/gamestop_reveals_that_switch_sales_doubled_in_the_week_after_e3
@Donkey-Kong-Fan
Why ? Hummm maybe because the talent of RetroStudios is not something that you find in the buttocks of a cow.
You know, a Metroid Prime game is something special. It's not like you make a Prime like that whoever you are...
And when I checked what KoeiTecmo did with other M and what Next Level Games did with federation Force, Yeah I'm scared... Trust me that I wish that BAMCO succeed with Prime 4 but I'm not confident at all...
@NEStalgia
"Eventually a company reaches stability. That should be a valued trait in a business, but in investment that's seen as a negative thing. "
Stability is actually pretty rare in an ever changing market. I got to see Jim Collins speak once (Good to Great author). I don't remember the exact statistics because it's been a few years. But he looked at companies over a prolonged period of about 20 years. And over that 20 years something like 80% of those companies fell out of major indexes such as the S&P 500 and many ended up in bankruptcy. There is even a follow up book because several of the companies he picked as the top performers have already declared bankruptcy. Past returns aren't indicative of future returns and few companies exhibit sustained success over time.
@cleveland124 While that's true, it's also a not coincidental. Investors control the board and in turn control company action. Investors seek infinite growth at all costs, and it is effectively all they value. Stability is the opposite of growth, it turns investment into a savings account. Thus investors actively seek to destablize a company that approaches stability, more and more aggressively pushing it to take ever increasingly high risk or self deconstructing actions and/or force it into such situations to quickly inflate it's value through additional debt or excessive cost reduction, gutting the company's overall stability, and leaving a collapsing husk when said investors convert that inflation into liquidity.
It's not coincidence and market uncertainty that causes every stable company to go bankrupt. Effectively bankruptcy is the goal of investment when a company looks to be nearing stability. They want to bail on the life raft before the boats are gone, after riding the big gnarly wave and pitching starboard. Stability is a prison for them. Instability is profit, so long as they're not the last one off the ship.
This pattern has been increasing at an ever quickening rate amidst the ocean of consolidation across every industry.
@NEStalgia
Yeah, I think that's a pretty extreme take. I think there are few stable companies (Apple, Walmart, Amazon, etc) and they rewarded well from investors. Apple hasn't had any revenue or profit growth in the last few years. But I don't see investors trying to throw them into bankruptcy.
Apple's already the top of the heap....I think nobody wants to upset that Apple cart (pun intended.) They could push them to overtake Android for growth, but their position as a luxury brand doesn't really gel with that. Amazon still has tons of growth ahead of it, so investors are almost content (if they don't mutiny from being continuously lied to about lack of earnings and not provided dividends), but Walmart is indeed approaching stability, and their investors have been getting restless.
Not specifically pushing them into bankruptcy but pushing into ever more risk for unrealistic growth rather than maintaining maturity and a dominant position, and/or seeking "growth" through cost cutting which almost always hollows out the organization leaving it inherently unstable. Said investors knowingly intend to bail as soon as it destabilizes. And then yes there are the fund management firms that destabilize with intent to be the one to bail first.
It's to the point that investment and the businesses they fund are working at cross purposes more often than not. Early their goals are aligned: Grow and turn profits from investment, but business needs to have an end goal of maturity and stability, while investment has the end goal of endless exponential growth. The two goals are not often compatible. Of course nothing will be able to address that inherent flaw until it leads to a crisis. It will, of course, at some point.
@NEStalgia no what he's doing is perfectly legal and their lower than estimate sales of hardware and attach rates show it was probably a smart bet.
@ryancraddock This article could use an update or follow-up news https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-01/hedge-fund-manager-plotkin-takes-a-hit-as-nintendo-stock-surges
@Galenmereth If using terms like "circle jerk" is growing up, then I'll try my best!
@Geeks4Life If you think the comments section is better then the actual articles, couldn't you go find a forum or different website that caters to your views, rather than contributing to the unnecessary negative comments? Also, re-read my comment. It has nothing to do with negative comments towards Nintendo, it's about negative comments towards Nintendo Life. This news is not Nintendo Life's fault. If people don't feel like they should be reporting on things like this, then maybe they shouldn't spend their time reading and commenting on EVERY article.
@Blizzia Because "I literally cant even with this..."
@kurtasbestos wow. Haha. This was a looong time ago. Guess it took some time coming up with a re_comment 😂 Whatever dude. I'm here because I like nintendo and if you can't handle someone not agreeing with you on the Internet. Maybe I'm actually not the one who needs to find a new platform 😂
@Schizor88 It was a long time ago because I have better things to do with my life than check the replies to my comments and then reply to them. But every once in a while I notice that little notification thing and I'm like, "hey, I've got some free time, let's waste precious time out of that remaining in my life and continue with a pointless internet argument!". Fortunately (for me) that only happens like once every several months or so.
@kurtasbestos #sadLife #sucks2BU
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