One of the bolder claims made by Nintendo in recent months is that it hopes the Switch can approach Wii-level sales. The little system shifted over 100 million units, as a reminder, but in the past generation Nintendo's most notable success has been passing 66 million sales with the 3DS; the portable has, it should be noted, been regarded as a strong performer for the company.
Returning to the days of 100 million hardware sales is certainly ambitious, but when quizzed about it by investors company President Tatsumi Kimishima reiterated that long-term goal. He also explained how this year's target of shipping ten million consoles is all about generating positive momentum into the next year.
Our initial plan for the Nintendo Switch hardware shipments for the last fiscal year was 2 million units, but we saw the high anticipation from consumers prior to launch and began additional production, allowing us to ultimately ship 2.74 million units. We are planning to ship 10 million units this fiscal year, and this figure takes into account the fantastic response we have received from consumers. Planning to ship 10 million units means that we actually plan to produce more than that including units in our warehouse and in-transit product. We are not currently producing this full amount all at once. We expect that the number of consumers who want to buy the hardware will increase as we release titles such as ARMS, Splatoon 2 and Super Mario Odyssey, so our current production model takes that into account.
...For us, being able to reach an installed base of more than 10 million units is fundamental to creating a strong business in a number of different ways. Shipping 10 million hardware units this fiscal year, as planned, will give publishers and the rest of our business partners a sense that the future of Nintendo Switch is more promising. This is another part of the reason why we are planning to ship 10 million units this fiscal year.
The truth is we want to raise the installed base of Nintendo Switch up to the same level as Wii. As we mentioned during our presentation, Nintendo Switch in America had the fastest start of any Nintendo hardware, despite launching in March. In the video game business, it's important for consumers to feel that a sales momentum is going to grow, and we are setting a standard with Nintendo Switch to release a continuous string of major software titles from now on. And if our sales go according to our plan this fiscal year, we will be able to see Nintendo Switch gaining the momentum in which it can approach relative parity with Wii afterwards.
Plus, considering that Nintendo Switch is a home console video game system that you can take with you on the go so you can play anytime, anywhere, with anyone, we think there will be households that feel as though one is not really enough. This is another point that drives us to match the scale of Wii's popularity with Nintendo Switch.
It's an interesting angle, of course, that the portable form of the Switch could help it to accumulate sales in a similar manner to 3DS consoles, with multiple units in each household. Elsewhere in the Q & A Kimishima-san also agrees with a suggestion that accessories sales could be key, and perhaps the standalone dock can come into the reckoning in that sense.
Do you believe the Switch can hit 100 million hardware sales over its lifespan?
[source nintendo.co.jp]
Comments 75
It makes me happy that the dark days of the Wii U seem to be behind us and most all stories about the Switch are good news. I hope it stays this way for a long while.
This really makes a lot of sense. Switch might not have the same WOW factor of the Wii, but it IS portable, and all indications in recent years showed that's where Nintendo's strength is really at.
No doubt they are going to be successful and more than triple the sales of the wiiu. That being said they must be crazy if they think they can match the wii. The console industry has shrank since the 360, PS3 and wii days. I doubt we will ever see the big three all make sales like that alongside each other again.
I can see this. The Wii was a household console, as is the Wii U, PS4, and XB1.
The Switch is a personal console, just like a 3DS, Mobile Phone or Tablet. This sort of thing can sell multiple units per family.
Launching in March I think will be the new plan for everyone, so a console has a big launch month and a big first holiday month.
@MrGawain Great insight, showing that the Switch can bring the best of both worlds - more households wanting to buy a home console and more people per household wanting their own personal console they can take with them.
I plan on buying another switch this year for the boy.
Not happening IMO. I think 50-60+ is achievable, but 100 mil is just way too high to be realistic. MAYBE if Nintendo doesn't bring out a 3DS successor and brings us some truly awesome games in the coming years, it could get kind of close to that target, but 100 mil would still be a pretty big stretch IMO.
@mattmayatt Myself and my son got one at launch and my daughter wants one for Christmas and if all keep getting hectic use my other son will also want his own.
I bought mine at launch and I am planning on giving my wife one for Christmas (my kids are going to be jealous)
As far as 100 million, what if Switch becomes Nintendo's sole platform (after 3DS dies out in a year or so) and they make a cheaper Mini Switch. At that point if this platform is their Handheld AND Console AND hybrid plus ALL their games are coming to this one system then YES I can absolutely see 100 million systems sold. Nintendo just doesn't want to tell it that way yet because they're still making bank off of 3DS
@Fred13 I can agree with this statement but I could also see Nintendo launching some kind of new separate handheld and keeping that from happening.
Pokemon and it will happen.
3ds numbers are probably more realistic....They ought to sell a cheaper version w/out the docking station, HDMI cord and joycon attachment for around $200.
I think it's possible, but won't be easy.
A steady stream of first party titles will be essential.
Third party titles will need to maintain a good level of quality (no shovelware or half-arsed ports).
Marketing will need to continue to be clear without targeting specific audiences too heavily.
It's about time he mentioned how they'll be more than one per household. It's so true. Not only is my son going to get one, but so aren't I. I can't see people sharing as much thanks to the portability. would love to see Nintendo crack 100 million. The news has been so positive over the last week it can only help.
Keep dreaming! That's never going to happen. But it's good to be positive.
@MadAdam81 yah, that's what's happening here. Everyone in the family is going to want one! Going to take awhile at $300 a unit though.
I really hope, and believe that Nintendo is considering Switch a platform and not just a single system. Meaning we should see a SwitchGO portable with integrated controls and no dock/clock up support. Then why not a Switch Home micro console which would be so cheap to make and sell, then when X2 get cheap a Switch Pro and Switch VR system. All of these iterations could play the same games/carts.
With this model I could see Nintendo cresting 100mil units across the multiple form factors. I personally believe this is the way to go. Any way you slice it if Switch does even 3DS (70+ Mil) numbers then it is going to be a big success.
To reach 100 million, at least the Switch has to be shipped 2 millions every month. It will take almost 5 years to reach 100 millions ( 4 years & 2 months to reach exact 100 millions ). If everything according to the plan, by the time after 5 years from now, it will exceding 120 millions.
@SLIGEACH_EIRE this we agree on. I could see it hitting sixty tho if they keep up the momentum.
@faint "The console industry has shrank since the 360, PS3 and wii days."
Except the PS4 is almost guaranteed to surpass the PS3 in the next 2 to 3 years. It currently sits around 60m and PS3 around 80m. PS4 still has GoW, Spiderman and TLoU2 coming that we know of. Overall yes, the total of 260m home consoles would be hard to duplicate in a gen, but I think MS is low man on the totem pole this time. And Switch can be both handheld and home.
Switch as is won't hit 100m. Nintendo kept the Wii U price $299 it's last 3 years. 3DS XL has been $199 since launch 5 years ago, just moving on to New. If they keep the current Switch $299 for 5 years 100m is out of the question.
But, if there is no 4DS, if they drop the dock, if Switch can hit $199, there's a chance. They need to increase production though. It would take 10 years at 10m per year. They need to make and sell 16-18m per year to have a shot. Nobody is going to be buying any type of Switch 9 years from now, if they want to hit 100m they have 7 or 8 years tops to do it.
The sooner they start the better. Drop 3DS after 2017, introduce the $199 portable model or bundle Switch for holiday 2018. Move Pokémon and Monster Hunter to Switch in 2018 as well. It's doable, but it won't be easy. Still waiting for paid online to be promoted.
I'd love to buy one, but it's hardly in stock every time I check. Hopefully they'll boost production around the holiday season so they can be more easily obtained. If not, no worries. I'll continue on with my N3DSXL.
They might be able to hit 100 million if they decide to release a switch 4k that surpasses all expectation and makes the GPU more in line with other consoles, but I'm not sure this would be considered as the same generation.
100 million units is ambitious. But I like that they're confident.
I can see what Kimishima's saying, too. For example... I never bought a Wii U. I just use my girlfriend's. We both have our own Switch consoles though. We wouldn't share one of those. We both have our own 3DS (about 4 each actually...) as well.
As soon as the Switch gets a hardware update I'll want that too.
I think Switch could exceed 3DS levels if done right but probably won't reach the heights of the Wii.
I literally laughed to myself when I read this headline. I'm certain the Switch will carve out a moderate level of success, but no console will ever match what Wii did in terms of sales.
I think 100M is realistic, if there is no 3DS successor. If it was up to me, i'd say give the 3DS up until next year, then replace it with a Switch Mini along the lines of the mock ups we saw recently. Have that out for Christmas 2018. If you're gonna combine handheld and home consoles into a hybrid, it doesn't make much sense to try to maintain a seperate dedicated handheld along side it, especially while Nintendo themselves are still doing the majority of the heavy lifting when it comes to the software support. Adding a cheaper Switch Mini to the Switch family would help keep them the cheapest option, and the goto system for parents shopping for kids. I don't think the Switch as-is can replace the 3DS/2DS in that regard, but if they can get a Switch Mini on shelves for the right price, it certainly could.
Good luck. Though it's not outselling the PS4. Xbox one sure. Not ps4 though.
@MrGawain My son and I each have one.
@thesilverbrick
Nintendo need this one to boost the Switch sales......
.....
.....
....
White color or Another color for Nintendo Switch. Not just only Black. Black is kinda lame color as usual. Too mainstream. Nintendo is well known with "Anti-Mainstream" habits.
@thesilverbrick The Wii was the fifth best selling system so far...so four others have already sold better. If Nintendo gets a study stream of AAA games out on the thing including main line Pokemon and Monster Hunter games, it will do just fine.
Can happen, but if you ask me I think it'll reach about 10-12 mil less than Wii at max
100 million is a lofty goal, but if Nintendo keeps pulling rabbits out of its hat, I think they can do it. Great games, chic products, and whole families wanting their own will do it.
100 million is a bit high this year and age. 50 million + will be great.
@Anti-Matter if they want to sell 100 million they need to be mainstream not anti-mainstream
The Switch has the potential on being the second best selling Nintendo console of all time right next to the Wii
Nintendo is wild. 60 million lifetime AT BEST imo.
The console space has changed drastically since the Wii era. The ps4 has nearly been out for 4 years and hasn't sold 60 million yet.
And honestly the ps4 and switch arent even comparable, because the Switch is a secondary device for gaming, whereas the ps4 can be considered a primary device for gaming due to their steady first AND third party support.
@rjejr the PS4 yes but let's look at the Xbox one and wiiu? The overall console market has less customers. Add the three together and see how they match up with the 360, PS3 and wii combined numbers for the same time frame. You can do the same with the vita ds.
I do think xbox will be the low man this time. I just find 100 million units sold an unlikely goal. I suspect 60 million. I know that's not much more than the 3ds but I don't expect it to have as many skus either.
Lofty ambitions indeed, I can only see it being possible if there is 'handheld only' variant that is much cheaper than the current model, so it is basically selling into two markets, handheld and home console. But even then, this isn't the naughties. The market has changed. I don't think this is very likely.
@SecondServing
Really ?
In my house, my Nintendo machines are Primary video games. I don't own ps4 yet (Just very few games, play them by rent) but probably will be my Secondary devices due to Almost No Safe For Watch games to be played. I would rather choose PS2 rather than PS4 but I will paired my PS2 & All Nintendo devices that I have Together.
The fastest way to 100mil is through software. Period. Gonna need a handful of software that equate to system-sellers to get it done. It's going to take more than Spla2n, ARMS, and Super Mario Odyssey though. Pokemon, Monster Hunter, and SSB (even an enhanced port of Wii U x 3DS versions) come to mind as possible candidates. And as always, it would be nice if some 3rd party software can appear and move systems to help.
@Amsterdamsters Perhaps I should clarify. I'm aware that historically consoles like the PS2 sold more overall than the Wii. What I was trying to articulate is that given the sales climate of the games industry and the fact that the "blue ocean" will never be captured again like it was with the Wii, no console going forward will ever sell like the Wii did.
@Anti-Matter I'm sure we'll eventually see other color options for the Switch, but it's way too soon. They can't even keep up with demand as it is. If Nintendo's history is any indication, they'll offer other console colors in the future when sales have slowed down to reignite interest.
I don't think it will do Wii numbers, but I could see it outselling most of their other home consoles if they play their cards right.
If they manage to get production up to 25 million a year, as they did with Wii, and justify it, that'd be pretty great.
I think Nintendo are doing the right thing with selling to a core audience first, instead of immediately spurting the system all over kids and grandparents like was the case with Wii.
They can always do that next year.
I'm doubtful the Switch will reach Wii-level sales, but if it does then that's awesome! I do think it'll sell at least 50 million units which would still be a big win for Nintendo anyway! Thing is, the Switch will only sell so far on the gimick or the hook of being a hybrid home and portable console. It'll also only sell so many units to diehard Wii fans who like using the Joy-Cons like the Wiimote and Nunchuck (see ARMS). For the majority it's the games that matter. Hopefully Nintendo has a few big announcements at E3 in June to keep the positive momentum rolling.
It's both a console and a handheld that only costs $50 more than the Wii and 3DS at launch, so it's not unrealistic to expect the Switch to perform comparably to both.
If they keep up the pattern of at least bi-monthly releases of AAA games, that will help as well. Average console owners don't usually need much more than that.
I would consider anything over 25 million units a success. I hope it does more.
I think there's a good chance of it exploding and doing 3DS numbers (which would be incredible). 100 million? I don't think the industry is going back to those levels.
As a handheld + console could it do DS + Wii numbers (i.e. 250m)? Nope.
Its a stretch, but it can be done with a steady delivery of both 1st & 3rd party games. So he's right that building early momentum is key, as that will lead to more 3rd party games later down the road.
@thesilverbrick I think there's a strong chance the PS4 will. I mean, the PS3 did like 87 million and that was Sony's worst generation. The PS4 is in a much stronger position and well on track to pass 100 million I think.
@rockodoodle Consider this: while the Wii was the only console to break 100m in its generation, every single console of that generation (including handheld) was over 80 million. Yes, even the PSP, which has still sold significantly more lifetime units than the 3DS family.
Do you not think that the Switch can beat the PSP in sales? Between the DS and the PSP, nearly 235 million units were sold.
Nintendo plans to ship 10 million Switches this fiscal year (which IMO seems a bit conservative). At the equivalent fiscal year in the Wii's lifecycle, Nintendo shipped nearly 18 million units.
The only way the Switch will reach the Wii 100 million units sold milestone is if Nintendo exceeds sales forecasts this year and maintains that level of heightened success for a substantial period of time. Even then, it will be hard to reach the Wii's sales figures. It probably wont happen. I think the Switch can sell as much as the 3DS/GBS (70-80 million), but not Wii numbers (100+ million).
@Agent721 I agree, it can be done. All the more promising given what we've seen so far. And bearing in mind all the planning that has gone into this console and its games lineup throughout the year. There's reason to be optimistic.
Look at it this way, I think we all agree the Switch is set to outperform the Wii U.
I think Nintendo could reach 100 million IF they really focus game development onto Switch and go all in. When people figure out that is where Nintendo games will be going forward, more will buy it. I also think there would need to be a price drop down the line. But it could happen.
I can definitely see it happening what with it having lots of great games on the horizon like MARIO oddyssey, Splatoon 2 and erm well loads.
@Mart1ndo that would be great. I'm sure a lot will love that option
It seems very unlikely but certainly isn't impossible. The Wii was the only Nintendo home console to break 100 million, but before it launched no one would have expected the follow up to the Gamecube to sell over 100 million.
I however think Nintendo must have some interesting plans and approaches in store if they do think 100 million is possible.
This is good if they want Wii numbers that must mean they are preparing some really great software which is good for us. This is in line with what they said recently about there being more games that has not been announce yet.
All this talk really puts into perspective just how low Wii U sales were. Such a great little gem that may still turn out to be for those who discover it later.
I think Kimishima believes he can hit that goal. I don't think he'd say it otherwise. I mean it all might come tumbling down, but I think he believes it and that could be a great thing.
I almost bought a second Switch just because it was such a deal if you wanted a second JoyCon and charger anyway (like @JaxonH actually did!) but now it's about play time. Sometimes I just want to Zelda and my kids want to MK... I'm pretty sure we'll have a second one before 2018.
I'm betting Nintendo will find a way to push me over the edge through a price cut or an enticing bundle.
I'm actually a bit surprised by how many people here have already gone for multiple in a household. ... that just makes me feel less crazy for thinking it, which means it's easier...
@aaronsullivan
People aren't considered crazy for having 2 tvs (or 4!) so why would it be any different for Switch? Between wanting a 2nd so 2 people can play different games at same time, and the ability to MP with local wireless instead of splitscreen (or 2 halved splitscreens vs 1 quadcut splitscreen) and the 2nd dock and extra Joycons...
It's kinda hard to find a reason not to buy a 2nd.
But you probably shouldn't listen to me. My M.O. seems to be convincing people to spend money. You'll be broke before this conversation is through 😆
Do note that Nintendo only shipped 11.5 million Nintendo DSs during its first full fiscal year (FY2005) on the market, which is a good number, but far from record breaking.
It was only until the release of traditional blockbuster hits (Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, NSMB, Pokemon) and the "Touch Generation" games (Nintendogs, the two Brain Training titles) alongside the launch of the DS Lite, when the DS started to take off. By FY2007, Nintendo was shipping 30 million DSs per year. Just by looking at year one sales alone, nobody would have predicted that the DS would sell 154 million units over its lifetime.
With Nintendo's current 10 million unit sales forecasts for the Switch this fiscal year, it is obvious that Nintendo does not expect the Switch to sell anywhere near as much as the Wii sold in its first full fiscal year (FY2007), where it sold ~18 million units. So if Nintendo wants the Switch to reach Wii numbers, they will need to expand the platform's market appeal in its later years much like they did with the DS in 2006 and 2007. That will be difficult IMO; games like Nintendogs and Brain Training came about at the right place, at the right time, and have since lost much of their appeal.
There's no way its going to beat the Wii, but I do think it has a good chance of selling very well, before my expectations were around 20-30 million units by the end of the Switch's lifetime, but now I think it's safe to say as long as things keep going smoothly for Nintendo, it'll sell at least 40 million by the time it's lifetime is over
We will see how it will turn out with 3rd party support... will we also get the newest games on the Switch or only by little companies with simple games.... The 4gb ram I see as an issue though.. most games are using a lot more today... We shall see
I believed it from the start. Right when I saw the trailer I was like "That is the New Wii, Nintendo is back!" Many people doubted it, but so far it looks good!
@Mart1ndo mine came with a pro controller, every LoZ BotW amiibo, a spare pair of joycons, a joycon charging grip, 1, 2 Switch, LoZ console sticker set, the LoZ BotW special Edition (without Master Sword statue), and a two liter of coca-cola. Sure I preordered it all (sans coke and amiibos) and paid retail price, but I was very happy with my day one purchase. Went home and immediately downloaded Snipperclips demo, Fast RMX, and I am Setsuna. Long story short, bite the bullet, buy the pro controller with IR, gyroscope, NFC reader, 40 hour battery, and charging cable. Its worth it for fighting games and Splatoon 2. (And getting my friend who's afraid of joycons to play Mario Kart Deluxe while I rock the joycon wheel.)
I love my Switch and bravo to them for a strong start but the Wii sales were lightning in a bottle. That will never happen again and they will be lucky to even get half that.
Awesome. His stance on households wanting more then one is correct at least for our house. As soon as we can get our hands on another one the wife will be picking one up. Do I think they can hit 100 million? Talk to me this time next year. If they crack 12.5 million this year, I'll go with maybe, otherwise I would feel safe betting on 50-60 million.
@faint If I had to bet, I'd say 60m is a more realistic number than 100m. I'd also bet it ends up closer to Wii than Wii U numbers, which is about 58m I think. But 100m could be possible if you have to pick boundaries. Such as at least probably 25m but at most 100m. 100m is not the most likely outcome, but it isn't a bad choice for - if everything goes right Nintendo will pay to produce at most 100m Switch. Which is about 98m more than they made of the NES Mini, which could have easily, very easily, sold more than it did.
Funny thing, besides not being a home or portable console, it's also not really this Gen or last gen.
PS3, X360, Wii = 260m
PS4, X1, Wii U = 150m maybe? 80m, 55m, 15m
Switch, PS5, Xbox2 = ?
That leaves 2 possibilities that bode well for Switch. 1, over 100m people skipped a gen, maybe they'll come back? 2, maybe Switch gets a great head start, PS5 and X2 never catch up? Maybe if Scorpio fails MS gives up?
So no, Switch probably never hits 100m, but I think it makes for a nice round best case scenario ceiling.
For me what's way more interesting than the Switch number is what will Switch morph into, sell as, over the long term? Ceiling on the $300 bundle may be 40m, but remove the dock, make a Mini, remove the screen for Switch TV. Switch Pro? Should be fun.
I hope that it will happen.But I'm still dissapointed that it didn't with Wii U,it's a very underrated console.
@rjejr I don't think the Xbox one is going to hit 55.
@samuelvictor
"... if they produce enough units in time, they will shift a metric tonne of consoles."
A metric tonne of Switch is 3,367 units. Let's hope Nintendo aim somewhat higher, shall we? 😜
High sales like the Wii had should always be the target now that Nintendo knows it's achievable. Nice to see that they're not letting one console's poor reception keep them down.
The idea of multiple people buying a Switch is an important thing to note. One of the reasons why Nintendo's past handhelds have always been successful in the past is because each person owns a handheld unit, rather than each family sharing a unit like with home consoles.
At its current price, the Switch is currently too expensive for each person in a family to purchase, which is one of the key reasons why Nintendo is still adamant about the Switch being their "home gaming system that can be taken on the go", with the significantly cheaper 3DS being their "handheld gaming system".
Removing the dock from the base package and selling a separate dock-less, cheaper, handheld/tabletop Switch SKU in the future could drive home the point that the Switch is BOTH a device that a family can share AND a device that each individual person can own use for him/herself. Either that, or some aggressive future price cuts in the future could work as well.
@JHDK Umm, I think the Wii U was really good. Because it was really the first 5-players console, (psst, Nintendo Land, Mario). There were really good titles like more great Legend of Zelda, such as Twilight Princess Hd and Wind Waker HD, which I am still enjoying, even with my switch. Don't forget splatoon!! It made the gamepad able for a 5th person to play, or the second game system to have 2 screens. Imo The Wii U was the best purchase I ever made.
@westman98 Agreed
@Guspaz I think it will sell well, but these days, there's just more competition for your electronics dollar- phones, tablets, watches, extra TVs, laptops etc. That said, I think this console was very well thought out and will be very appealing to a lot of people.
And- what will also work for it is the very nature of the device in terms of marketing- people will see other people playing it and that will help spread the word alone. Playing something like ARMS or 1 2 Switch in public will draw a lot of attention.
Show Comments
Leave A Comment
Hold on there, you need to login to post a comment...