On 27th April Nintendo will publish its 'Fiscal Year Earnings Release' - understandably that phrase may not fill you with giddy excitement, but it's more interesting than it sounds. Typically these year-end results and reports, due to their importance and timing, reveal some fascinating and meaningful details. For example in the equivalent reports last year Nintendo announced that the NX (now Switch, of course) would launch worldwide in March 2017, and what would emerge as The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild would be the core focus (on Wii U) at E3 2016. They were notable announcements, and in past years the likes of amiibo (albeit with a codename) have been unveiled in these reports and briefings.
In summary, then, a seemingly boring annual corporate event is actually rather exciting, so we decided to break down some realistic expectations we have for this year's reports, along with an explanation of how it all normally works.
So, When Is This Happening?
The key date is tomorrow, 27th April. In terms of timing, Nintendo typically releases its financial reports and supplementary documents when the Tokyo financial market closes, or around that time. That's normally between 8-9am UK time, which is roughly midnight-1am Pacific time in the US. Often Nintendo also publishes the official translation of company President Tatsumi Kimisima's financial briefing around the same time [Update, we're being made to wait a little longer for this], which he also presents in person to press in Japan. It's this document, essentially multiple pages of presentation slides, that often holds the most intriguing details, some of which we're predicting below.
With that clarified, what do we expect?
Broad E3 Details
As highlighted above, these financial reports and briefings typically give an insight into some of Nintendo's E3 plans. The company often clarifies already-confirmed games that will feature prominently, and sets the tone for how important the event will or will not be. Nintendo of America has already confirmed a Splatoon 2 Exhibition Tournament, so evidently the subsidiary company is also gearing up to outline its plans in line with the inevitable details from HQ in Japan.
We're intrigued to see how big Nintendo's plans will be. In last year's briefing it was announced that only Breath of the Wild on Wii U would feature at the 2016 event and there was certainly backlash. A time later Nintendo outlined more non-playable demos and an additional Treehouse broadcast; the suspicion was that it was arranged as a response to the negative initial response, but that can't be proved.
In any case, we hope Nintendo will go big this year in order to build on positive early momentum for the Nintendo Switch. The briefing may confirm some already known games for the event - such as Super Mario Odyssey, Fire Emblem Warriors and more - and share some broader plans. Nintendo of America may tie in further details later in the day, confirming more on that Splatoon 2 event, the number of live broadcasts - perhaps with the Treehouse team - and the 'main' event. We didn't get a full 'Digital Event' in 2016, but we hope it'll return.
Nintendo Switch Sales Figures and Projections
This will certainly be interesting - over recent weeks we've seen analyst estimates of the Switch hardware sales passing Nintendo's March target for two million units, along with talk of increased manufacturing for the coming financial year. Nintendo will clarify both areas in its financial report.
Firm sales numbers will be given up to 31st March, for both hardware and software, which will show whether those reports were accurate. The projected sales for what is now this financial year - 1st April 2017 to 31st March 2018 - will also be eye-opening and outline how ambitious and confident (or otherwise) Nintendo is about the hardware. If it estimates 12 million+ Switch hardware sales for the coming year that'll reinforce some reports that have suggested Nintendo's belief that it has a winning product on its hands. If the projections are particularly high beyond that, meanwhile, that may speak to major projects and releases that are yet to be revealed.
An Outline of Switch Updates and Plans
In past financial presentations Nintendo outlined a plan to revive the Wii U GamePad, for example, and confirmed features such as DS games on the Wii U Virtual Console, the new 'quick start menu' and more. As the audience is primarily investors Nintendo does sometimes take the opportunity to reassure interested observers that it has solid plans for its gaming systems.
With the Switch there are lots of potential areas to cover - the Virtual Console isn't off the table, simply because VC reveals have come via these reports in the past. Nintendo may also aim to reassure investors over key functionality of the Switch, perhaps with updates on potential streaming apps (such as YouTube, Netflix et al). The Nintendo Online Service, officially due for a full launch in 'Fall 2017' may also get referenced, especially if aspects of it - such as the lobby and voice chat features on a smart device app - are set to be prominent for Splatoon 2. My Nintendo could also get a mention, as it's yet to incorporate Switch rewards on the service, albeit purchases from the system's shop and even retail carts do earn points.
Beyond that, the Switch UI and a range of features (HOME Themes, data management) can certainly expand, so some - not all - details of that update roadmap may feature in the briefings and President's presentation.
A True Indication of Whether the 3DS is Still Important
Nintendo does have games coming to the 3DS that could do relatively well, titles like Hey! Pikmin and Ever Oasis among them. Whether it is truly part of Nintendo's plans beyond 2017 will become a little clearer with these reports. Starting off with the initial financial report, it'll have projected sales for hardware and software, and if these are low for 3DS it'll be an indication that the system is winding down.
Our theory, for a while, has been that the Nintendo Switch is a hybrid system that may try to satisfy both the portable and home console areas for Nintendo. Yet if the big N has different plans for the handheld space it could allude to them, even if it's merely to say that details on what's next for 3DS - or a 'successor' - will come later in the year. This writer's prediction is that estimates for 3DS hardware and game sales in this financial year will be modest, but with Nintendo the unexpected is always possible.
Sadly for all of us Wii U owners, meanwhile, its discontinuation means it'll likely get a passing mention at best.
An Update on Mobile Releases and Strategies
Now that Super Mario Run has completed its roll-out onto Android and Fire Emblem Heroes has settled in, Nintendo is likely to outline the successes and failures of its releases so far and give some hints as to what's next. We know an Animal Crossing app / game is expected, so that's a good candidate for some additional details.
In addition Nintendo may reveal what franchise is next after Animal Crossing, which will be intriguing. Will we see a revival for a franchise like Advance Wars, or will Nintendo stick with core successes like the Mario IP? Time will tell.
It'll be fascinating to see what emerges from the Nintendo financial reports and briefings. We can expect some interesting details and, if we're lucky, some left-field surprises. We'll be following it all closely and sharing the details here on Nintendo Life, as always.
Comments 82
Proper 3rd party support announcements for Switch? A price drop to €250 for Switch also. When we can expect new games for Wii U? New Metroid and F-Zero games.
Edit: Sarcasm people. It's a difficult thing to convey on the internet.
@SLIGEACH_EIRE That's gonna be E3. Polar opposite of the 'one game' 2016 E3.
2 words
Virtual console please
(ok so that's 3 words but you get the idea)
E3 is what, 45 days away? I doubt they'll blow the lid off anything they have planned for that. This E3 is pretty important for them. They need to pretty much blow the doors off VC and some quality, long awaited first party games. Leave Odyssey out completely, we already know enough about it and that it's still 7 months out. Plenty of time to do a couple directs on it outside of E3.
i hope they reveal some secret games.
I reckon we will get news on Animal Crossing mobile phone game and they may discuss what their strategy of maximising revenue from this medium will be after Mario Run and Fire Emblem. Eeek...I'm going back to playing games rather than talking business!
Hope the details on Pikmin 4 resurface, I will be relieved if it comes to Switch. Other than that, maybe some VC details and some Switch bundles with pack-in games
This will be a dry event. We won't get any game announcements tomorrow.
@SLIGEACH_EIRE price drop would only happen if at all on Black Friday
@Dakt Hmm kinda. I think Animal Crossing could be Micro Transaction Heaven for them, but after Mario not following that model, it makes sense for them to experiment first before destroying us all!
@SLIGEACH_EIRE The best you might get is a Switch with a game bundled together sometime in the next year. Wii U is not getting any more physical releases-maybe some random shovelware on the estore.
Hopefully new Metroid at E3. I wish for a new F-Zero, but Nintendo doesn't seem interested in developing or licensing it.
All we can probably expect is sales and potentially broad news into the future for E3 etc, but let's hope for good news tomorrow!
@Dakt As for E3, I will be very disappointed if everyman and his aunt are not bringing games to the Switch. Old 360 remasters or optimised ports of current stuff, that hand held, play anywhere hook is gold. E3 will be nuts and if it is just Nintendo / indie-centric, then third party support is token at best
Tom's yearly coverage and analysis of Nintendo's financial report should be award winning. If he's not in his element here then he's fooled me for years!
@SLIGEACH_EIRE I'll be grabbing a PS4Pro when that gets reduced for Christmas. (Bought my Switch day 1)
The Switch does appear to be doing better than I expected, so the current and projected sales figures would be an interesting read.
I'd also like them to announce that they have lots of upcoming games for 2017 that we don't know about yet, though E3 will be the best place to actually reveal them.
@SLIGEACH_EIRE nobody gets your sarcasm methinks. Ultimately those are ALL things that would be nice to see tho...
Even if its just a month, just tell us when we're getting the Virtual Console! T.T
@Angelic_Lapras_King & are we going get GC games
@AlternateButtons I think he's talking about the EU's pricing, which is more expensive than US's. €250 would match the $299
@Angelic_Lapras_King Get ready for "...which we will talk about at a later date..."
I doubt they will reveal anything about a possible 3DS successor or that the Switch is taking over handheld duties. There are many 3DS games coming up, so that will surely lower the sales a bit.
My hopes are strongly set for a Metroid reveal at E3. It's been so long since we had a proper Metroid game and E3 is the best time to actually do that.
There isn't going to be any meaningful information about the Switch sales. It's still too soon unfortunately. It will be good to hear that it has started strong (which we know already) but then so did the Wii U.
Looking forward to tomorrow! I hope Nintendo beats analytics' estimations so we can see a 5+% green day Good profit is never a bad profit!
With FE Heroes, Mario Run on Android, Switch hardware + software sales, 2 legal cases won, Pokemon Company profiting $3.3 billion etc. I think financials will look extremely bullish tomorrow. Though marketing might have been costly for Nintendo this past 2 months
@Malpais Either that or some classic shovelware been a real lack of it announced for the switch so far. Mind you if Nintendo really are motivated to run e shop better. I recon being cart based for retail will cut down on shovelware. As its big difference from a 5p dvd.
I predict the reports will associate the blame for something due to a strong Yen.
I'm just looking froward to the compilation of bizarre questions from investors.
@Malpais
If we don't see Metroid announced this e3, I'll live. Lots of other great games coming-
and more to be announced at e3- that I probably won't even care.
BUT.
If we do get a Metroid, I'll be giddy. I just hope the fan base doesn't ruin it. We're one outrage away from Nintendo scrapping the series indefinitely.
I'm gonna make a bold prediction here and say that the Animal Crossing mobile game gets put on the backburner so it can release closer to a Switch Animal Crossing next year. Other mobile games they haven't announced yet will release in the mean time.
@SLIGEACH_EIRE
This is a financial investor meeting, not E3 or a Nintendo Direct. But even if this was E3 or a Nintendo Direct, I am almost certain you know the answers to the rhetorical questions that you have asked.
And seriously?? You think Nintendo will announce Wii U games?? lolololololololololololol.....................
I don't expect anything earth-shattering. Perhaps we'll have a better idea of what the company will do with 3DS, as stated in the article.
I hope to see an increased projection of units sold for the next fiscal year. It would instill confidence and also guarantee units would be readily available. I'm tempted to purchase the Switch soon, but it's still looking like Christmas 2017 or early 2018 for me, unless Eternal Darkness gets revealed at E3. That would grab me.
I expect really stupid questions from at least one investor.
@SLIGEACH_EIRE Why would the switch get a price drop if the demand is high? In order to reach equilibrium, Nintendo just needs to meet demand, but if you're being sarcastic ignore my reply cause it's hard for me to spot sarcasm when it's not said in person.
I expect to see an E3 similar to the BoTW one only this time it will be Mario Odyssey. It's not what I want, nor do I think it's a good idea..but I don't have as much faith in them to wow me like they used to. I remember E3s like the Twilight Princess one, I was literally crying during the presentation. It was amazing.
I'm not really a numbers guy. Or a business guy. At all. But I am always fascinated with Nintendo's financial and investors briefings. I enjoy learning how the company operates as, well, a company. I don't even care about game announcements in these things. Just love hearing the numbers and comparing them to the past as well as competitors.
One thing that's noteworthy will be their 3DS software sales projections, as that could indicate another main series Pokemon game this holiday if their projections are high.
Sun and Moon were moderately heavy on the Diamond and Pearl teases, and TPCI seems set on bucking what's expected (B2W2 instead of Grey, Gen VI only having XY and ORAS), so I could foresee them dropping a teaser about DP remakes (which would buck the "one remake per generation" trend, be a last hurrah for the 3DS, and out for the games' 10th anniversary internationally).
EDIT: @IceClimbers I've been thinking something like that...
@Alshain01 this is true but remember the wiiu started it death spiral during its fourth month on the market. That's around the time we will be getting splatoon and we will already have mario Kart which came way later and a main line Zelda that the wiiu didn't get till the end.
@Findonovan95 the breath of the wild e3 only had breath of the wild. There is no way that's going to happen this year. To many things in the pipeline.
I'm expecting an E3 similar to 2014. The Switch is out and there's a lot of Nintendo developers that have been silent for the last 2 or 3 years, so we're due for a big lineup.
@JaxonH Sadly, this is very true, the fanbase was really toxic when FedForce was announced. Hopefully, this time things will be different for the better. If Nintendo does reveal, I will freak out like a kid getting it's Christmas present. I dream of Metroid being on glory days like Zelda does.
Dear, Mr Tatsumi Kimishima. Please make some new Animal Crossing for Switch with even better gameplay and features. It will boost Switch sales. Thank you.
I think E3 will be heavily focused on Super Mario Odyssey while still addressing other Switch and 3DS games. They will probably announce a few new 3DS games and plenty of Switch exclusives. Mobile won't be a focus since they aren't ready to announce anything. Just tell us we can transfer E-Shop games!
@SLIGEACH_EIRE
I'm afraid if Wii U will be discontinued by the end of year 2017 or 2018.
@IceClimbers
Hopefully you are right! The only reading I don't mind mobile Nintendo games is because we know they are making main series versions at the same time.
What do I expect? Damage control to the shareholders why one of the biggest yearly series isn't on your brand new platform.
Mostly expect good news. Nintendo Switch is a hit and it's a good time to invest in Nintendo, especially when they also have Mobile.
@faint I don't know that MK8D or Splatoon 2 will help sell a significant number of systems over what Zelda has already done... but we will see. The problem I see is that the first really "serious" title for Switch from Nintendo themselves that isn't essentially on the Wii U will be Mario Odyssey.
Yes there are the little games like 1-2 Switch and Arms but those aren't big hit titles (what I mean by "serious").
But again, it still could survive against all odds. It's just if they didn't sell Wii U systems, I don't see MK and Splatoon selling Switch systems either.
I think people are taking these investor meetings way too seriously and with high expectations. While I'm definitely looking forward at what they're going to talk about, I think people need to understand that these meetings are made specifically for business people and not for gamers; which is why I'm keeping my expectations low
@Alshain01 splatoon is a sequel you know. I have no idea why you guys keep going the whole it's on the wiiu route with it.
@Alshain01 You also seem to think the wiiu is Nintendos entire user base like the 3ds never existed.
@Menchi187 doubtful
@Anti-Matter it already has been. They stopped manufacturing them a few months ago.
The smiley I guess is lost on some people. Kinda reveals that I'm not being serious, as does asking for new Wii U games.
@SLIGEACH_EIRE lol flag me report me I don't care you are stupid to think a price drop.besides that Wii u launch 299 still 299.lol half the negative stuff you say is just pointless typing.
@Slim1999 disagree all you want. Call him a troll or whatever. No need to call him stupid. We can do better.
@Alshain01
Both Mario Kart 8 Deluxe and Splatoon 2 will be pretty big hits, just by judging from preorder numbers. Skepticism for Arms is definitely appropriate though.
@Masurao
Nintendo's investors are hilariously stupid. They couldn't even take the time to research how Pokémon Go's revenue would be distributed prior to buying a ton of Nintendo stock back when that game was a cultural phenomenon. Most Nintendo investors pretty much only care about Nintendo developing mobile apps. Now that it has happened, resistance from shareholders will be minimal.
@RoomB31 Clearly, they don't get it.
I expect we'll have official confirmation of the Switch's sales and of how Nintendo takes that info. Apart from that, maybe general info about E3 but not big announcements. They'll save that for E3, unless someone decides to start leaking.
Nintendo Ninjas have been quite lazy for the Switch.
@faint We may disagree on certain things but on this I couldn't agree more. There's no need for comments like this. +1
They will give some info about E3 to build the Hype train.
@faint
Oh....
Well.... Wii U was just 5 years, eh ?
@SLIGEACH_EIRE Why would Nintendo drop the price on the Switch when stores continue to sell through stock quickly?
@faint Regarding Splatoon 2, Because it's not going to be that big an enhancement from the first one. Not any more different than MK8D is from MK8.
I don't know what the 3DS has to do with MK and Splatoon not selling Wii U systems. MK7 didn't really impact 3DS systems significantly either though.
@westman98 Pre-orders don't really tell how well the games will impact system sales. The number of pre-orders is likely from people who already own a Switch.
@Slim1999 Ugh. That was unnecessary. Reported for harassment.
@SLIGEACH_EIRE Sarcasm is hard to get across on the internet, even with smilies. Something like 95% of communication is nonverbal so even talking on the phone can screw you. Your comment was a bit funny about Wii U games. Of course Nintendo would never do a price drop until next year after the 3DS Ambassador fiasco. I'm sure we will get bundles for the holidays though which are an equivalent.
@Alshain01
High preorders for those games will guarantee good launch sales. Could momentum completely tank after launch?? Sure. That's a question we could also ask about the Switch itself, not just its software. As of right now, Switch's momentum has not tanked, but maybe that could change for the worse.
"MK7 didn't really impact 3DS systems significantly either though."
MK7 (and Mario 3D Land) pretty much singlehandedly sold the 3DS during the 2011 holiday season and reversed the platform's fortunes after struggling early on due to a high price and lack of compelling launch software. The 3DS would have seriously struggled without those two games.
My guesses...
1) E3 showing confirmed as a Nintendo Direct with demos of various games on the show floor, like previous years before 2016. Super Mario Odyssey and Splatoon 2 will be front and center.
2) High sales projections for Switch, lower for 3DS. It will be clear they are banking on Switch and mobile going forward.
3) Update on the amusement park business and other ventures.
4) Hopefully some answers about Virtual Console and online.
5) What should come up in investor questions (who knows if it will) is what is Nintendo doing to ensure there is adequate supply.
Not really expecting a big game announcement. Just explanation of strategy for the next year.
My prediction for tomorrow's investor's meeting.........is pain!
@westman98 That is a question we are ONLY asking about the Switch hardware itself. Stop trying to strawman this, I'm talking about Switch sales and only Switch sales. I was never talking about the game sales. I was talking about how the games would affect Switch sales, but pre-orders are no indicator of that, as I said. I will not argue against your strawman argument, it is a fallacy and a tactic of the ignorant.
Mario Kart 7 did not sell 3DS systems during the 2011 season, that was the problem. The damn thing nearly failed up until ACNL was released in 2012/2013. It's possible Switch could have a similar scenario, but it won't be from MK8D or Splatoon 2. But that in itself assumes the Switch loses momentum, which I don't know for certain that it will... I just don't see the prospects as good from Wii U ports.
@Alshain01 I don't really think Splatoon 2 can be compared to MK8D.MK8D is a direct port with minor enhancements and a new battle mode,every thing else is exactly the same.Splatoon 2 has a brand new single player campaign,that alone warrants it being a sequel.That on top of new maps,modes,specials and weapons.We don't even know if any of the old maps are returning.The only thing that is the same is the graphics and the game style but that's to be expected,it's a new franchise still trying to establish itself.They weren't going to give it a whole new artstyle and overhaul how it plays.
Just to add,MK7 only released in December 2011 and by March had sold 1.45 million copies.That and SM3DL contributed to the 3DS selling double what the DS had in the same time period.The 3DS had recovered from its lull thanks to both those games.ACNL definitely helped shift units but it certainly wasn't the game that saved 3DS.
Edit: my numbers are US sales only,I just realised.
@Alshain01
Media Create will report this week's Japan's sales data in 2 weeks. We'll see how much of an impact MK8D will make on Switch hardware sales by then. I'm clearly more optimistic than you are.
Also, I have no idea where you are getting your information from regarding the 3DS and Mario Kart 7. That game absolutely pushed a TON of 3DS systems, as Nintendo shipped over 8 million 3DS systems during the 2011 holiday quarter alone. The 3DS was already a success long before Animal Crossing New Leaf was released, as 3DS sales had exceeded 32 million units by June 2013.
Splatoon 2 is also not a Wii U port. The "it's similar to the first game thus it's definitely a port which means nobody will care about it" argument is ridiculous. Not that many sequels will undergo "Breath of the Wild-esque" changes over the predecessor. Splatoon 2 maintains the first game's engine and core gameplay mechanics, but has entirely new maps, weapons, and game modes.
@OorWullie Great! It's a primarily multiplayer game with a new single player campaign. Most people don't buy Splatoon for it's single player I'm afraid. MK8D has new tracks if I am not mistake, it's still a port, so how is that different from new maps that could have been added to the Wii U version? The fact is, it is the same game engine and the same basic content with minor tweaks and a few new maps, either Splatoon 2 is a port or MK8D isn't. But regardless of the name you choose to give it, It won't have a major effect on system sales in my opinion. That is where my concern lies, it's long time between Zelda and Mario with little significance in between. Maybe the ports will be enough to hold it's momentum, but I fear it will lose it like the Wii U did.
ACNL was just the start of what saved the system, I'm not saying that one game did so by itself. Being closely followed (at least in the Americas) by Pokemon XY contributed. But it was not selling well prior to that.
@Alshain01 So what then does earn a multiplayer focused game the right to call itself a sequel?If it's not new maps,modes,online options,weapons,specials,gear,new hub world,new online co-op modes,new local mutliplayer on top of graphical enhancements and a single player campaign,what else can they possibly do?They could give it a whole new graphical style but then that would just be cosmetic,won't change the game.
As for 3DS,I think you need to go back and look at it again because you're way off.The 3DS was saved long before ACNL arrived at the end of 2012.At the end of March 2012 it had shifted 17.13 million units with MK7 shifting 5.24m copies after only 4 months on the market.Just to show 3DS sales continued during 2012,from January up to the end of 3rd quarter (before ACNL arrived), 3DS sold 7.16 million units taking its total sales up to 22.19.That is in no way a failing console.
@OorWullie As I said, it doesn't matter what you call it. That's not the point. Have it your way, MK8D is a sequel not a port. I still don't think it will be significant at selling Switch systems.
@Alshain01 We'll just have to agree to disagree on the sequel/port argument, reviews will answer the question. As for MK8D selling huge amounts of Switch's, I don't think it will either, at least to the same impact a brand new entry would but it's another stellar game to add to it's library that will certainly contribute to many deciding of they want one or not. MK7 sold around 15 million, 6 million more than MK8 so there's still a lot of MK fans who never played 8.Splatoon 2 though is going to be huge in Japan, whether it will be in the west we'll have to wait and see. Plus we've got ARMS coming in between.
Nintendo will announce they are teaming with Koei to being another 127 Dynasty Warrior crossover titles to the Switch, starting with Miitomo Warriors!!
@SLIGEACH_EIRE Genuine question for you. Obviously you've taken a relatively negative stand point towards the Switch and indeed Nintendo in general over the last few months. Now on most points I disagree with you but I am a Switch owner and have been totally sold on the concept from day one. I've been thoroughly satisfied with the console and the games since I picked it up (apart from bomberman I just can't get into that game). Now obviously it's good to have different viewpoints as that promotes discussion points rather than the pointless gushing with rose tinted glasses you see on some sites. What I'm wondering is have your opinions on both the Switch and how Nintendo is handling its business changed any in view of sales and critical success and indeed comments from actual owners over the first 7 weeks of this new system? I understand that it's early days and nobody knows what the next 12 - 18 months look like I'm just intrigued as to if your position has changed any or if you are sticking to your initial impressions and predictions?
Nintendo predicts Switch sales of nearly 13 million by next April
http://www.theverge.com/2017/4/27/15447342/nintendo-switch-sales-forecast-earnings-2016
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2017/170427e.pdf
Switch: 2.74 million units shipped worldwide
Zelda: Breath Of The Wild: 3.84 million sold (2.76 million Switch, 1.08 million Wii U)
No E3 news? Is there still more to come?
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