EEDAR VP of Insights Patrick Walker has pointed out that the core home console market is bigger than ever, citing impressive launch sale figures for the PS4 and Xbox One systems.
The news flies in the face of claims that the rise of smartphones and tablets has put the console market in danger. However, sales data points out that both Sony and Microsoft's consoles have outperformed their predecessors.
The obvious exception is of course Nintendo, with the Wii U struggling to emulate the incredible commercial performance of the original Wii.
Here's Walker's take on the situation:
The data shows how much the "Wii bubble" contributed to the explosive growth in software sales in 2008, the year the Wii really took off as a family and party device. This data corroborates a broader theme EEDAR has seen across our research - new, shortened gaming experiences that have added diversity to the market, especially mobile, have cannibalized the casual console market, not the core console market. People will find the best platform to play a specific experience, and for many types of experiences, that is still a sofa, controller, and 50 inch flat-screen TV.
Walker's assessment is that "casual" gaming genres have simply shifted over to smartphones and tablets, while "core" franchises - such as shooters and action titles - have become even more entrenched on home consoles.
Nintendo was instrumental in creating the new casual gaming market, and therefore suffered the most when casual players abandoned consoles and switched to smart devices.
While the picture is a glum one for the Wii U, it bodes well for Nintendo's next console, as it proves there is still a considerable appetite for dedicated gaming hardware in the living room. If Nintendo can combine this knowledge with a powerful portable component - as the rumours would suggest, NX will do just that - then it could well return to bumper sales with its next domestic system.
[source gamesindustry.biz]
Comments 59
I look forward to Nintendo soon revealing hardware that demostrates that dedicated handhelds are as important as ever for the portable gaming space!
Note that chart is for western markets. The story in Japan is completely different and the big question mark is China. It's yet to be determined which consoles that market will embrace now that the communists have lifted the ban.
It only bodes well for Nintendo if they smarten up.
This proves nothing. Until we have completely surpassed the combined install bases of the PS3 and 360, the dedicated console market hasn't expanded. For all we know, people in the same audience have just been rushing out to buy a PS4 and, to a far lesser extent, the XB1, because of media hype.
@Dakt Same. My brother bought a 360 last gen and 3 days later it red-ringed. No second chances, I say. I moved exclusively to Son/Nintendo combinations and thankfully haven't had any problems with this new gen. I highly doubt/hope that these QA problems wI'll return.
Hmmm this is Software sales, unless core gamers weren't buying ANY software for Wii it could have only went down.
Good. I hope that people can shut up about mobile "stealing" away dedicated game platform owners. They are two overlapping markets. Nobody buys a phone JUST to play Angry Birds. They buy phones for other reasons and play mobile games alongside those other apps/calling & texting features.
I'm glad people are starting to realize what some of us knew for years already and that data is reflecting it.
"new, shortened gaming experiences that have added diversity to the market, especially mobile, HAVE CANNIBALIZED THE CASUAL CONSOLE MARKET, NOT THE CORE MARKET"
Damn, I wish I could find that article, or whatever it was, that gave the specific use of NX in some industry or something, and explained it in a way that imo pretty much guarantees this is why Nintendo choose it as the codename for its new console.
It was sooo telling—and if only I could find that damn article again, you'd see exactly what I mean.
I just have no clue where I saw it now, and it must have been a least a few days ago—a few days where I've literally viewed hundreds of websites and viewed/read more articles and features.
I'm so annoyed that I didn't take note of it at the time, an especially since in my head I remember saying "I should really take not of this, or else I probably forget it, and I think it explains exactly what Nintendo chose NX as the codename (in a way that kinda isn't speculative—which you'd understand if you saw it)".
@Dakt this is only software sales though, not hardware, so new consoles wouldn't affect data
I was always critical of Nintendo's move to "core" gamer in this generation - but this does help explain their rationale to me, especially now that we know the price point was largely out of their control due to the weak yen
I still wish they'd launched with art academy, and something like "wii touch-sports" or "pad-pilotwings" to sell us on the gamepad. Nintendoland was a poor effort.
@Yorumi Or they've realized that the core console market is saturated with just the Xbox and PlayStation, meaning there's no room for them anymore. Calling it now: NX is the last attempt console, which will be core market focused, as they transition to being a handheld and mobile company, eventually becoming mobile-only once the handheld market dies. We'll know when Nintendo sees the handheld market as dead when they give in to Game Freak's desires to put main series Pokemon on mobile.
@tysonfury The Wii U was focused on the casual market. It failed because it was attempting to convert the casual gamers pulled in by the Wii into core gamers. It was never focused on the pre-existing core gamers outside of Nintendo's core fanbase.
@IceClimbers
I respectfully disagree, but thanks for your comment
"Bodes well for Nintendo NX"
This can only be true if Nintendo were to make the NX a good enough console rather than another Wii-wannabe like the Wii U was. And considering it's Nintendo, it'll be another Wii-wannabe.
This article makes a lot of sense. Angry Birds is fine if I'm out and about and have a few minutes to kill, but it's never going to be as satisfying as playing a console game.
@IceClimbers I agree its saturated, not to mention the PS/Xbox market isn't an equal split, Microsoft has already given up on exclusive advertising for "core" multi-plats because the same games sell better on Playstation 4 no matter what now and that's the strategy MS used throughout the entire 7th gen.
What good would Nintendo be with third party focus like PS and Xbox when unless consoles are neck and neck it's not worth doing unless you're the lead console? No good, Nintendo aren't even associated with third party so they'd be at a severe disadvantage copying the "core" strategy, if its even worth it I mean Sony are the lead console by a huge margin and barely keeping their head above water with their strategy, but if Nintendo sold half as many consoles in the same time with their typical sales strategy they'd be laughing all the way to the bank .
@Yorumi
There are two things for dumping "core" games:
"Low Sales" and "Low Audience" for these games; We know that games like Star Fox, F-Zero and Metroid are very good and have audience, but the results recently (last versions known) are the same, don't sell enough and remembering; sales and profits are priority in a business (even if they say anything or disguise); and Now, developing new games need more budget (if we want great games, with good gameplay and cool graphics), but sales not are the enough for profits. and worse, that few people buy games and more and more expensive are.
Sony and Microsoft boast that many consoles have been sold, but how many AAA games have sold?, They have risked to sell many games of that "model/class", but this can't be for ever if lose and lose for each game; Konami, Sega and Capcom have shown the example of when the business no longer works if they are not prepared.
@Kirk: Genuinely curious, what? You rambled about something behind the NX meaning but you left me in the blue.
Based on the first chart, it seems like 8th generation software sales in 2013 and 2014 outperformed 7th generation software during 2005 and 2006 for Xbox 360 + 2006 and 2007 for PS3. Which makes sense, since early Xbox 360 and PS3 hardware and software sales were ridiculously slow.
It seems like 8th generation software sales in 2015 will pretty much match (or slightly exceed) 7th generation software sales in 2007 for Xbox 360 + 2008 for PS3. Seems like 7th generation software will experience much larger growth.
That of course ignore Nintendo. The Wii was a true beast.
@Yorumi Have you taken a look at the top selling PS4 and Xbox1 games and the systems sales figures? The PS4 has a gigantic lead and it was all centred around multi-plats that the Xbox1 also has. The biggest PS4 system sellers being Destiny(also on xbox), GTAV(also on Xbox), FIFA 15(also on xbox) Cod:Advanced Warfare(also on xbox) you'd see the games launch and the PS4 sales figure would see an increase double or triple the size of the Xbox1 increase for the same week.
The exclusives for Sony and MS are barely a blip on the radar compared to being the best platform for the same game. You could take away all the PS4 exclusives and it would still be the lead console this gen. Being the perceived best platform for multi-plats means more than any exclusive when it comes to the "core" we're talking about here.
@Yorumi
mil = million? I guess, sorry.
Well, If check you said: 3 mil and less Star Fox, 2 mil Wave Race, almost 1 mil F Zero; you believe that Nintendo would risk for another new version (with a budget for a real AAA game) that would have sales of less of 1 mil?, sad not.
The new Star Fox show exactly like they expect if that game don't sell enough, the game look more cheap that a real AAA, and if miss in sales, they don't lose many money; unfortunately, companies take rare measures to try not to lose money, and that, well, is hard, both they as us.
True, Star Fox had shown a strange evolution in lastest versions, some who were disliked by the audience; the new "Metroid" that seems it was a new IP but used the name of Metroid only to sell, I guess; but well, here I don't options for a opinion.
And also, is very true that lately, Nintendo Marketing is very awful, here don't need for explain, It need improve, and much.
@Yorumi No consoleis doing well in Japan and the X1 is doing terribly for its purpose the X1 and PS4 aren't aimed at making money they're products aimed to enter/control as many living rooms as possible, market share matters most to them to spread their ecosystem.
You might say Nintendo too, but ever noticed Nintendo making profits when they're selling far less than the competition and seemingly "not advertising their products, the idiots" how Iwata promised Nintendo-like profits rather than a turn around in console sales? Their priorities simply aren't the same and a Sony/MS-like business model just wouldn't function(hell PS and Xbox both wouldn't have made through 7th gen if the initial losses weren't bailed out by their massive corporate structure of Sony and MS).
IMO we need a study that more effectively evaluates the user base. Hardcore has nothing to do with taste in games and everything to do with how much time and money you put into it. I have a cousin who has invested more than $200 in DLC for Marvel's Contest of Champions app. If that doesn't qualify as hardcore nothing does.
It's difficult how to interpret this data. The market Nintendo created with the Wii is now going into the pockets of app developers and phone manufacturers. The core market is the preserve of "hardcore" games primarily on XBox and PS4, so where exactly is the room for Nintendo? The Big-N needs to disrupt the market again, but this time add something that cannot be snatched by mobiles.
@Yorumi
First off NOA never called fans whiny when it came to localisation. They were basically trying to explain the realities, risks and true cost of localising games which is something that a lot of people just cannot seem to grasp or understand. Where exactly did it ever say they blamed smartphone for their losses? Considering how they are starting to embrace mobile development, I would say you just pulled that one outta nowhere.
Its not that Nintendo does not try, its simply that they know they can't win by fighting Sony and MS at their own game. When you consider that a lot of devs out there are either douchebags to Nintendo in general, don't take them seriously enough, or are complete bedmates with Sony and MS its not that hard to see from Nintendo's point of view that playing the multiplatform game would mostly be little more than a lost cause and a waste of money.
Also I don't think you realize all the non Nintendo games that have been initially shown off with amazing graphics then end up being downgraded in the final build
@DiscoGentleman Hear, hear.
@IceClimbers Ugh, WHY SO HARSH!?
@Yorumi About the only thing that Microsoft and Sony did was dump a truckload of cash on the doorsteps of developers to get "exclusives" or "time-limited exclusives" and hire vastly smarter PR people in the west. They basically brought the Hollywood blockbuster method of making something to videogames. I would make an argument that we have suffered for it more than we have gained.
People don't realize the last generation that Nintendo directly competed with Sony and Microsoft they came to the table with the most powerful console, and lost. People were happy with lower quality graphics of the PS2 and Xbox over the high quality of the Gamecube. Storage wasn't even an issue until later in the console's lifespan. GC's Rouge Squadron, Metroid Prime, Resident Evil 4 curb stomped all over the best the other two brought but it wasn't enough because Microsoft and Sony had an endless budget for PR people that made the Gamecube "kiddie" and "uncool".
@Dakt I went through 3 x-box 360's. The First one died in a few months...would not load anything, just giving me a green screen. The Second one started erasing all my downloads and game saves, then would not turn on. The third one, would not connect to the internet anymore, kept on asking me to put a code in to verify my username (which I ended up doing on a daily basis). As far as the PS3 went, I have 2. One is the original that plays PS2 games, but only has 80GB...the second is the second model with a 4TB hard drive that I added. PS3 is played the most, due to having more TV Episodes, Download Movies, Photos, Home Movies and Music on it with a ton of games retail and downloaded. The Wii still works fine, even though the sensor bars go faster than the system. The one I'm worried about, is the Wii U and of when the controller pad's screen ends up going, the whole system is worthless...that's the only problem I have with that, but you're friend is not alone with the 360 console.
@Yorumi Well, regardless of how they got to where they're at now, how are they supposed to take a stab at the pre-existing core market that's so dominated by Xbox and PlayStation - hell, just PlayStation considering the Xbox lost a ton of marketshare this generation and Phil Spencer is focusing on 1st party in a Nintendo-like fashion?
If the Xbox is losing marketshare to PlayStation, how is Nintendo supposed to do anything?
Knowing Nintendo and their philosophy of wanting to have as many people play their games as possible, they'll go mobile-only, avoiding the Xbox and PlayStation like the plague because they'll think that if there's no place for their consoles in the market, then there's no place for their games either. Hell, that may be partially true. We have no idea as to how much of the Xbox/PlayStation consumer base would be willing to support Nintendo's games past the initial batch of games that make headlines.
@Darknyht And the DVD player in the PS2. I know a LOT of people that bought it over the GCN because they wanted a DVD player.
Exactly why if the NX is Wii 3 it will fail as miserably as the Wii U. Casual gamers don't care about consoles anymore and have moved on to smartphone games. If Nintendo wants to succeed on the console market they need to change the strategy they've used for the last few years, namely trying everything except appealing to hardcore gamers.
what a stupid, stupid piece. After all these years and people still believe the great canard that is the "casual/hardcore" BS? jesus...
Those graphs are nuts!
@Vineleaf I bought a PS3 for with the intent of playing games I missed last generation... ended up using it more for bluray than anything else...
We has suits and statistics so we're good. You know we are.
@Yorumi I agree, but I'm not sure people will be willing to accept anything less than a mega hit from Nintendo. To them, anything less is automatically a failure. I also think that while affordability would be the thing to go after, core gamers that frequent gaming sites would scoff at that idea because to them a cheap console = underpowered = casual, and they'll bash the hell out of it, giving it a negative perception to the general public. That's without gimmicks.
If Nintendo makes a normal system without the gimmicks, and has graphics in line with what PS4 and X1 have, the NX will do reasonably well compared to how the Wii U stunk so badly. But other than that, Nintendo will have trouble getting ppl to support a system that is coming out later then the X1 and ps4 (they will have a huge user base and alot of games out already), and Nintendo needs to show that they are committed to third party and getting the games ppl want.
@Royalblues sadly, I'm done with their consoles too i can't support a company that only releases their own games on their systems, and doesn't get third party games enough. Plus, all the games are childish, there is grown up gamers, Nintendo
I bought the Wii U and while it did have several fun games, I never found anything that really stuck with me that I could play for hours on end. I actually bought it to play all the games I enjoyed on the television without having to haul my PC into the living room. It's been out three years and I don't even have that many games I play regularly on it. You know why?
I need online multiplayer, I have no friends who can come over for local multiplayer without driving hundreds of miles. And Nintendo can't do online multiplayer. They are far, far, far too behind with the times to properly do it. Mario Kart 8's multiplayer works pretty well minus Mommy Nintendo only letting you say certain messages. Super Smash Bros. has way too much input lag online and the voice chat with friends sounds like a tin can stuffed into a potato. Splatoon doesn't have voice chat for the absolute dumbest reasoning but thankfully online is good in that. Hyrule Warriors would have been fantastic for online co-op, as would have Super Mario 3D World.
That and Nintendo of America refusing to bring over a lot of stuff from Europe (Which is in English, mind you, so I don't want to hear translation nonsense) and their horrible release schedule of virtual console games. The darn Xbox has more N64 games than the Wii U, seriously Nintendo?
The one thing I thought the Wii U was really going to shine in was the gamepad support for third party games. We all see how THAT went. And as for Amiibo, I got all of three of them before they became the new gold rush because Nintendo can't supply them worth a lick.
I grew up with this company and I love their games all faults aside. But I think it's time I jumped the Nintendo ship. I can just emulate their previous gen titles on my vastly more powerful PC and get a majority of third party titles on there. I'll probably stick with them on handhelds as that seems to be the one thing they handle well enough. And if the NX turns out to be the moment Nintendo finally wakes up, maybe, JUST MAYBE, I'll get one.
But they have a lot of proving to do to me.
@Darknyht
The GC losing out to PS2 and XBox was due to a lot more than PR. Launching later than PS2 (which had sold well over 10 million by the time GC even launched), being less powerful than XBox, not having a DVD Drive and not having the likes of GTA were major factors too.
The article is pure trash. Of course "Core" title sells are up! That is what the game industry is pushing this generation. Also, I love how author dismisses RPGs, Simulation, Puzzles and Strategy genre as not being "Core" titles. (They are missing from the chart) Never mind, let us NOT discuss the quality of the "casual" titles which would have drove the "casual" gamer away last generation. (Or the rapid releases of titles in the Music genre games).
Or this is evidence that the worst recession in decades slowed console growth over the last couple years and now we are rebounding out of it.
@ekreig yeah I'm sure Nintendo has had that exact same conversation internally. The billion dollar question is if the Pokemon/Yoi Kai Watch/Animal crossing etc fans will buy a new Nintendo device to get those games. The reception for the mobile games will be telling for the future. I for one hope the dedicated gaming hand held sticks around.
Another point of contention with the article, one would have to factor in the price of the Xbox 360 and the PlayStation 3 during the first few years compared to the Xbox One and the PlayStation 4. I don't recall seeing neither of two generation 7 systems hitting the $299/$349 price point like we saw with the Xbox One last year during black Friday. Also, I don't recall all of the trade in your Xbox and PS2 for a $150 credit towards a Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 deals last generation which have occurred in the United States since the release of the generation 8 systems.
@foobarbaz that's not going happen, Nintendo has stated as much. They are going to continue to do their own thing.
"Nintendo was instrumental in creating the new casual gaming market, and therefore suffered the most when casual players abandoned consoles and switched to smart devices."
That makes a lot of sense. Hopefully Nintendo gets the message and simply tries to make the best machine like the NES and SNES
Beat everyone at the game that's being played. Don't make up your own game. Don't invent some new storage device for the games. Don't think of a new gimmick. Don't think of a new pun for its name. Powerful, blu ray player, good online infrastructure, 3rd party friendly, achievement system with Nintendo flare. Give us the exact equivalent of the PS4 and add Nintendo games to it = big win. For nostalgia sake I recommend calling it the Super Nintendo 2 and lead the PR with Reggie admitting Nintendo's mistakes and warning everyone that Nintendo is back.
Playing Rare Replay over the last week reminded me how awesome & ambitious their older games were. It blows my mind that Nintendo once had a console which was the go to console for fps games (N64) WTF happened?! And how I miss the epic 3D platformers of old, Conkers BFD is still better than any modern platformer I've played. I miss that Nintendo. The new Nintendo (Nutendo) need to stop dumbing down all their games and be alot more ambitious.
Until that happens, i can't really see many people caring about the NX.
"Core Console Market Bigger Than Ever"
That's why developers go enmasse to the mobile-phones...
@Kirk that is the longest post I've ever read that's actually says nothing.
I couldn't care less about an NX. I'm a dedicated Nintendo handheld fanboy for life, though — handhelds, the only thing they've managed to consistently get right over the years, even to this day. On the other hand, Nintendo's proven over and over again that 21st century console gaming is like deciphering alien glyphs for them. And I don't even think a new leader is really going to change things up that much (if at all). I'd love to be wrong. But I really don't see it happening...
@Ichiban "I miss [the old] Nintendo. The new Nintendo (Nutendo) need to stop dumbing down all their games and be alot more ambitious. Until that happens, i can't really see many people caring about the NX."
Couldn't agree more. It's nearly 2016 and Nintendo still doesn't have an account system. (Perhaps that'll change with the DeNA partnership... I guess.) Until Nintendo starts incorporating commonplace features like this (amongst others) into their systems, I have absolutely zero interest in any console they're thinking of dropping.
@DESS-M-8 Hey, I know exactly how you feel lol
But the truth is out there...
@Kmno I honestly wish I could find the article that I am referring to.
Basically, as I recall, the article was saying that in whatever particular industry it was, NX is officially used as a "codename" or term for these 'products' that are so new and untested and so different to the norm that they don't quite know what to call them yet—or something like that.
Seriously; if I could find the article then I'm certain everyone would be like "Yup; this is exactly why Nintendo has given its new console the codename NX".
It bodes well for Nintendo IF they smarten up and actually release a console that is up to 2017(whenever it launches) standards. Not having an account model, hardly any online, etc. They also need to simply accept that they messed up with the Wii U, at least from a marketing perspective, and move on. Them attempting to blame the failure of the system on tablets was distasteful and seemed more like a joke than anything. I sincerely hope they are able to turn it around, as I love the company, but they need to really make an effort this time around.
@eaglebob345
That's too bad, because you've missed some truly amazing games.
Did someone really believe the mobile market could cannibalize the console and PC gaming market? That never made sense to me, mobile games are just totally inferior (in the view a core gamer).
A lot of Wii owners have migrated to PlayStation 4, because PS4 is where the new games are. And then there are the Wii holdouts who still enjoy that great console - Just Dance still sells a whole lot more on Wii than Wii U!
@Kirk Can you recall when the article was published. Maybe you can fiddle around with google search by date feature with a few keywords that was in the article.
@Malakai Nope.
I've looked a literally hundreds of articles over the last few days, covering all kinds of random topics, and I just can't remember. It must have had some connection to the kind of stuff Nintendo does in general though, obviously.
It's so annoying that I didn't take a note of it.
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