It's no secret that the Virtual Boy - which recently had it's 20 year anniversary - wasn't the greatest success for Nintendo. Launched in 1995 to almost complete consumer apathy in North America, it bypassed Europe entirely and was discontinued the following year. Could this negative experience in launching a VR product have put Nintendo off dabbling in VR ever again? Not according to financial analyst Digi-Capital which has recently been sharing its thoughts with UK trade magazine MCV. It is convinced that the upcoming Nintendo NX console will in fact be a VR machine.
To understand the logic, here is a soundbite from NoA's president Reggie Fils-Aime from June this year on the subject of VR:
What we believe is that, in order for this technology to move forward, you need to make it fun and you need to make it social. I haven't walked the floor, so I can't say in terms of what's on the floor today, but at least based on what I've seen to date, it's not fun, and it's not social. It's just tech.
Shigeru Miyamoto shared these sentiments too:
The current types of virtual reality aren't really a good fit for Nintendo's philosophy of trying to create entertainment that people can play together in the living room. We're constantly looking at different technology and experimenting with different elements of it, but we're not feeling virtual reality is currently in a place where it's ready to be released – as a product that fits with our philosophy of fitting in the living room.
Digi-Capital has interpreted Nintendo's previous comments about VR and has now come to the conclusion that Nintendo isn't completely dismissing Virtual Reality - it is simply criticising the current implementation. Therefore it thinks there is a chance that the NX may well be the first true "social" Virtual Reality console, offering a range of augmented reality games which can be played with friends.
The speculation is that Nintendo may well be planning a low-cost console with a specification similar to the PS4 and Xbox One, but one is is optimised for Virtual Reality or Augmented Reality. This would be bundled with some type of headset and a fancy new controller which would do the same for VR that the Wii Remote did for motion controlled gaming.
Here are some more thoughts from the analyst:
Incorporating smartphone HMD holders could split processing between a central console and multiple smartphones, enabling social gameplay by lowering total system costs to the user. This might be achieved with a low cost console for co-ordination amongst players, position tracking, controller interactions etc, with additional AR/VR processing handled by CPUs/GPUs in smartphones in HMD holders and/or dedicated HMDs.
This approach could also allow iOS/Android game developers to leverage existing skills and IP with a dedicated SDK (i.e. lower game development costs and earlier commercial viability). High quality positional tracking integrated with HMDs/controllers could further enable Immersive VR like the Vive and Oculus, but at a much lower price point. Lastly, the DeNA partnership could be leveraged to incorporate the now dominant free-to-play (or "free-to-start" as Iwata described it) business model.
What do you think of this analyst's speculations? Do you think Nintendo is planning to have another crack at Virtual Reality, or would it be virtual insanity for them to attempt this?
[source mcvuk.com]
Comments 83
Neeeh I don't think so
Virtual insanity is the comment I was going to put here and I've been beaten already so how about virtual suicide instead?
I hope with all my heart there is not a spit of accuracy in this.
Wrong time to be making such a claim, methinks. Square Enix just announced DQXI on the NX... I highly doubt we'll be playing the next Dragon "as if we're playing it right in our living room."
I could be wrong, though. Let's wait and see.
Well it does go with Reggie's statement regarding VR being an isolated experience or whatever. Social AR games could be interesting......for a while lol
Im not big on these ideas myself, i just want a couch & a controller!
After the news from Square Enix announcing 2 games coming to the NX, neither of which are VR based, that alone tells me this isn't what the NX is.
@VeeFlamesNL Just because a system is capable of doing something doesn't mean a game will have to use all of those features.
We need to stop. Just stop. No one has a clue as to what the NX will be. That probably includes most Big N representatives and Square Enix. In time, all will be revealed.....
Nintendo knows TWICE now that they don't want sell tech that mounts to your face. The virtual boy demonstrated that and then the 3DS which correctly dispensed with any 3D that required glasses which was proven again by the failure of 3D TV's that did. QOL is also "non-wearable" in concept and moves in the opposite direction of a trend right now that is similar . So I would offer this analyst these points as arguments against
Analyst or palm reader?
Yeah nothing we've seen suggests VR, suits slapping the concept in the face doesn't scream "we're doing this" neither dose "all new concept" sound like "that thing everyone was doing at E3"
This would explain why Nintendo plans to keep supporting the Wii U after the NX launches. If it truly is something so "out of the box" as it is believed to be, Nintendo might keep the 3DS as their portable offering, the Wii U as their home console offering and the NX as a whole new targeted market. Time will tell I guess and for me, I rather live in the present than daydreaming of what might be in the (still) distant future.
@FragRed 2 games? I thought it was just the DQ game?
NX could potentially support VR in the future but I don't see it being designed around it. They want to show the system next year so they already have more or less finalized design for its inner tech and peripherals. I would rather expect Nintendo going really heavy on cross-platform features between NX and New 3DS or whatever handheld device is going to replace it. I think they are going to once again change the controller to something unusual.
There's some talk of NX being some sort of hybrid, maybe its controller will be the next Nintendo handheld at the same time? That would be interesting.
That's a clever concept but it doesn't seems something Nintendo would do.
This would be cool, but there's a bunch of other forms NX could take, so will wait and see. I was kinda half hoping Nintendo would announce NX as supporting Oculus Rift and maybe some other headsets, but then MS beat them to the punch by saying Xbox One would support Oculus Rift.
Definitely agree also with the feeling that current VR solutions aren't mass market, but rather only likely to appeal to hardcore gamers or be used in commercial/industrial/defence settings (none of whom are going to buy large volumes of headsets, even if they do use them for some really interesting applications).
Personally, I'd love a consumer grade AR headset that people can take outdoors and play with, but having heard reports about HoloLense and its limited field of view, I just can't see it happening in the next 3 or 4 years.
As long as it isn't required I'm ok with it. I'd rather have a console/handheld hybrid though.
Doubt this. The NX is apparently 'revolutionary' and 'unique'. A VR system would hardly fit that description these days.
I also dont buy the idea of using a smartphone as the Vr display, there are so many phone sizes and shapes. I dont see why you'd slice of portions of the player base away because they favour a larger/smaller screen
@bluedogrulez no we dont. This just makes us to imagine what is great.
@bluedogrulez Why wouldn't big third party developers and publishers not know what the NX is? It's almost certain that the rumours were true of Nintendo showcasing the NX behind closed doors to third parties.
It takes time to port games or even create exclusive gamed for a new system, and as it's being revealed to the public next year I am guessing there's gonna be a bunch of first and third party games to announce and show alongside it.
@readyletsgo There's 2 Dragon Quest titles coming to the NX and both are also coming to PS4 I believe. Dragon Quest X and Dragon Quest XI
@FragRed Ahhhh! I thought it was just XI coming to the 3 systems, with the 3ds version being different.
TBH when the 3DS first launched I thought it would take the AR reality stuff further. I was hoping they'd suddenly be Nintendo-like board games where you zap zombies with your 3DS and so forth. But nothing much happened besides some crappy photo stuff.
Nintendo will have to do something pretty magic in the AR or VR area to get people excited.
I think AR being incorporated isn't impossible. DS family and Wii U have played with these ideas. I can't see that being the horse that drives the cart though.
Is this supposed to be an April fools joke? Do you know how much that equipment costs? And Sony already tried social VR w/ Wonderbook and it barely released in the US. Eye pet did get a sequel but it was hardly worth building an entire console around.
NX has a much better chance at being a wristwatch than a VR anything. This us just laughable.
This is clearly not feasible. How can they possibly make a low cost console with similar specs to ps4 and xbox one but also throw in a headset and a fancy controller? Its just completely unrealistic.
no..no..no..NO..NO!
come on Nintendo, I'm all for trying something new but you need the NX to be attractive to developers otherwise we will just have another WiiU situation on our hands and making a console completly different to the other gaming systems is just going to put them off
you can't afford a 3rd generation with no support or just shovelware like the Wii and WiiU and I don't mean money wise I mean if you can't get developers on board with the NX you will never get them back and you will just end up like SEGA
and none of us want that
@NotEnoughScarabs I agree with you. Moving on...
@NotEnoughScarabs My guess if they do this, it won't be a focused thing but something more optional.
That would be kinda cool. But I doubt it.
Please please please stop the fancy stuff Nintendo and just make another SUPER NINTENDO i.e. an "ordinary" console with up-to-par power and decent 3rd party support. It's what people want.
I think it seems virtually impossible that Nintendo's next console will have VR. Virtual reality might become popular in the future, but I think it'll be many years yet before it becomes mainstream.
I don't see what all the hate on this idea is. Yes, it is speculation, but I find it rather intriguing.likelihood: less than 50%, but I find this more intriguing than a handheld/home crossover — which still doesn't make sense lest you weaken the potential of home console gaming or increase the price.
Whether you're for or against this idea, DQ11 being confirmed for NX pretty much renders this theory null and void. Nice speculation on their part, though.
@Scollurio Yep, pretty much this.
Naysayers always point to the GCN as a counter argument to this, but fail to see the shortcomings of that console such as the mini DVD format and lack of a fourth shoulder button (ZL).
A true return to their SNES roots and mentality would go a long way winning some of the PSXB crowd back.
@bluedogrulez
I don't think I can tolerate a year more of this
lol analysts. If they do it would make sense on why they don't want to release any news yet for fear of idea stealing.
The smear campain is starting
@ROBLOGNICK yeah.... Look at the 3D on the 3DS, or how about the Gamepad? not every game utilizes the Gamepad on the WiiU, nor does every game use 3D on the 3DS... Yup, not even Nintendo.
You guys are absolutely clueless, NX is dirt cheap. It is just a piece of cardboard, similar to Google cardboard but bigger: You insert your Wii U tablet controller into the cardboard and duct taped it to your face. Instant VR.
@bluedogrulez I'm with you 100% on this. I'm cool with people talking about their excitement for the NX but we literally have no idea what it is. I wish people would stop speculating and just wait for the official announcement at E3 next year. In my opinion, the problem with this is that the uneducated/uninformed read these sorts of things accept them as fact and then spread it all over the internet as such. The hybrid handheld/home console is the perfect example when the reality is that this idea is just as likely as that one to be true (i.e. not very). I saw an article somewhere for the QoL patents with the a headline along the lines of "Could these be the patents for the NX?" and I just facepalmed.
And for the record, Nintendo's historically shows an an official reveal one year and releases the console the following year. While I won't say it's IMPOSSIBLE for Nintendo to break tradition I think it highly unlikely that NX will release in 2016. Everyone who thinks it's coming right after E3 in the summer or even by holiday 2016 is blinded by wishful thinking.
Be patient people. Good thinks come to those who wait. A delayed console will eventually be good but a rushed console will be bad forever. (And by delayed I just mean not rushed, since we don't even have a release date.... you get the idea)
@JamesCoote try closer to 10 years... As long as conventional games make money, there is really no reason for them to go out of their way to create tech not many people are going to like... People don't like the Gamepad or Wiimotes... How would this be any different in the eyes of the couch sitting controller holding gaming community? How often do we see the word "gimmick" pasted on this site, in reference to non-conventional controllers? Truth is, this style of play, like the Balance Board, will require you to get off your butt and game, is just not popular with "core gamers"... I guess since MS is leading the charge it's cool now. Glad Nintendo didn't lead the way, or would have just been another "gimmick".
I really hope not. I have a feeling that VR as it stands now is going to be about as well received as 3DTV when released. Which means it will find a hardcore dedicated niche group that love it and everyone else will just forget that it exists.
How analyst's think: This is what the general market would do, so Nintendo is likely to follow that.
How anyone who knows Nintendo thinks: Whatever I can think up is exactly not what Nintendo are going to do.
Miyamoto or Takeda won't be Iwata's replacement either.
No thank you.
Uh, no. Doubtful they just three some Virtual Reality console together that quick since the Wii U started. Nah. Doesn't feel right.
@Platypus101 The couch sitting controller holding gaming community is remember, only a small minority of people who play games. To my mind, PS4 and Xbox One already have that market wrapped up, and Nintendo's games don't really feel like they fit in there anyway.
But yes, I meant more "at least" 3 or 4 years, and it may indeed be more like 10. That's why I'm skeptical of the analysts' suggestion Nintendo could have found a way to make a VR and/or AR solution appeal beyond core gamers shooting aliens (as cool as that is).
As much as I love VR, I highly doubt this is a possibility.
@JamesCoote I think the next gen of consoles may be able to produce an effect that will be enjoyable by all. as for the PS4 /XB1 crowd, that is the majority of the gaming community, many of whom have spilled into the Ninty crowd, thus infecting them with the "More power! No Gimmicks!" mentality. I absolutely love my Wii and my Wii U (in fact the reason I bought them was due to the unique controller) and have yet to buy another console this generation. Hoping all this NX talk won't sink her too soon and force my hand into buying the PS4 (I don't love the exclusives, but it has the largest install base amongst my friends)
I don't think so. Sounds interesting, but I don't think the average casual gamer is willing to put something over their heads and distract them from everyone else in the room. Just creating multiplayer games for it wouldn't make it social enough. It would have to be something that is very easy to put on and doesn't shut off all of the light in the room (which wouldn't be totally immersive, and would actually defeat the purpose of a VR headset).
Maybe if they had attachments you could add on to the controller that shut off more light for single-player games, that might work. I dunno, call me a nay-sayer but Virtual Reality just seems like something that is entirely a closed-off experience.
I don't think we're at the VR age yet...
Yeah - nope. Not gonna happen. No way, no how. I friggin hope not. Nintendo wouldn't even. Sorry, nope.
@Platypus101 Well, my vested interest is that I'm making a couple of games for Wii U, so definitely hoping it'll be around for another few years. If NX is pitched at a more casual (or Japanese) audience then there's a chance Wii U can run parallel to that for a while as the "core gamer" (or at least more "core gamer" than NX) part of their offering.
It all depends on the feels people get about the NX, plus it's release date, once the details are properly announced. That'll determine how quickly the bottom drops out of the Wii U market
I don't see this at all. It is true that if you imagine Nintendo has a plan to go VR then the top people would be planting seeds like this now, but Nintendo is the wrong positioning for something like this. It's a huge, huge hardware investment and making things work in VR disallows using graphics power a generation older. You have to do twice as much work to get images in front of each eye.
The Microsoft holo lens thing could work for Nintendo, honestly. Just not this next generation. Even Microsoft's solution has serious issues with field of view being small.
Didn't Reggie say what Nintendo thought of VR. That it was fun but not something they could use at the moment but maybe in the future, something along those lines.
No one knows what the NX will be, but there's no stopping people from posting rumors like this. Honestly, can't people just wait until E3 2016 to actually see and hear what the NX will be from Nintendo. No of course not.
How exactly will VR work on a smartphone or tablet
I highly doubt this analysts prediction, It would be way too risky for Nintendo to launch a VR console.
I just want to know what the NX is going to be. I'm not going to get hyped (or concerned) about it until I have something to get hyped (or concerned) about, period.
Ha... Hahaha.... ahahahahah... AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Whew, sorry about that. That was just too hilarious.
Okay, honestly now: no across the board. Gaming isn't social, VR isn't social, and neither medium has any business being social. They simply cannot achieve any sort of communication that could be defined as "social" even under optimal circumstances.
Social interactivity is always a difficult thing to establish, and it only works if all people are bound by the same restricitions and/or risks. In other words: social communication doesn't work when people are anonymous, and as such, never actually face the other person(s) they interact with. That's one of the main reasons people are so rude on the internet (the arrogant dude writing this is a good example), and you simply can't stop people from doing it. At the same time, nobody would buy a console where every user would be required to insert his/her personal information in a way that would eliminate any kind of fake info (like a mandatory ID card scan, or a physical contract), since that defies the very idea of gaming. You don't wanna be yourself in games, you wanna be your better self, or an alter ego - or just follow a fictional characters' journey.
A similar problem persists with VR. I already said before that VR is a very plain gimmick since only the optical senses are influenced (which is one of the most easily manipulated and unreliable of our senses), and shoehorning "social" interactivity would mostly serve to corner the user with unpleasant amounts of simulated urgency. It's annoying to take off whatever kind of VR device you use, unlike phones which you can just leave/put in your pocket), or a TV (which you can look away from).
Sooo, no. The assessment Digi-capital makes is very much a prime example of the word "delusional".
What Nintendo needs to do is to stick with making a new console that will rival that of the PS4 and XBONE, bringing their world of Miis, Amiibos and subscription-less online services. They could actually meet the PS4 and XBONE specs for much cheaper now. They really could produce a $299 system with the specs of the other guys. They should should drop the Wii remotes for something similar but more precise. They should keep the LCD gamepad thing going but allow multiple gamepads AND keep the Wii U gamepad compatabile. If they do really want to keep gaming social, each player having their own gamepad instead of a split screen would be great. PS4 and XBONE players have to have their own system, their own TV, their own copy of their game and probably their own house/appartment. They need to get back in the game with a stable position first, then see about adding in VR as an add-on to the NX or part of the next system.
So, these prognosticators took the opposite of what was said, and predicted it would happen. Genius.
Virtual Boy wasn't VR though, was it? It was 3D, and Nintendo have proven that they didn't give up on that tech.
Who even are these charlatan analysts? -__-
There are getting to be fewer and fewer places I can go in gaming and be anti-social.
Oh, who knows?
I think this is a whole lot of incorrect. You can be pretty sure that when an "analyst" makes a prediction, it will be wrong.
I've been saying this for a while. Nintendo signed some deal with sharp for a bendable screen. They almost have a vr headset already. Strap a gamepad to your head and play captain toad minecart section. Then use a wiimote/chuck to move around and the wii u is almost a vr system. 2nd, I truly feel that vr is not going to matter to gamers as much as to Facebook users. People could almost have a vr family dinner with friend/family all around the world, kind of matrix like. Vr gaming is just a nice benefit to vr becoming popular and accessible. Nintendo just can't stray away from making video games. They make some of the best games on the market and I hope they never stop.
Virtual Reality doesn't seen to be fun to me yet.. Until then "VR" stands for Velvet Revolver, those I like
I don't know why people think VR can be big, it won't and will only exists as niche product. I think it'll go where 3D TV is, maybe a bit better with game company support, but it won't go mainstream. It's existence on the market will be Kinect/Move level at best. Nintendo will be too stupid to pursue this path, so it won't happen, and it's also too expensive for Nintendo.
I think it will be something unique while serving as a grounded system, which the latter Nintendo is direly in need of currently. Taking too wild of a chance is not going to do Nintendo any favors any time soon. I won't hold my breath for VR and all that.
Please don't get rid of the gamepad. One of the things I like most with the Wii U (even though Joe public is too stupid to appreciate it).
That is really a stretch.
Come on, more gimmicks? I hope that's not too complex for third parties to program and convert multi-platform games for it, otherwise, there's another failure incoming.
Unlikely. Unless they use hololens type tech and move away from the tv as a main display.
I have this funny feeling that the NX will be an add-on to the WiiU. This would also make perfect sense when one looks at the rumored ridiculously low price of 149$. Furthermore I remember a flowchart that showed the 3DS, WiiU, QoL and NX as all working together and the NX was described as the fourth leg.
Anyway... it will be interesting to see what it really is, but we will have to wait until next E3 and maybe a release sometime in 2017.
No.
Hey; I would love it to be some kind of awesome VR headset—a VR system is the other idea I have for what NX might be, next to my hybrid home console and handheld concept that I've banged on about multiple times now—but I'm not drinking that Kool-Aid until I see the thing myself.
I highly doubt VR will be the main focus of the console. I'm not at all interested in VR, so if it were true, then NX probably won't be purchased at all by me.
Is it still bannable to say "NX," on Miiverse?
What is up with THAT?
@VeeFlamesNL yeah, since the next Dragon Quest is PS4 bound as well with no mention of it being playable via Sony's upcoming VR Headset, I tend to agree with you. Unless they just withheld that bit of information.
I for one hope it isn't true. I wish Nintendo would make a non wacky game console this time around. The GameCube was the last Nintendo console that I can say that I loved.
The Virtual boy: FAIL
Kinect 1.0: FAIL
Kinect 2.0: FAIL
PS Move: FAIL
etc..
All to a more or less higher financial degree. XBone is rowing back from "it does everything" to "it does gaming and we try to make it do gaming as well as PS4" and the PS4's controller-LED's originally should be used for some VR application and might even still be used for Morpheus, but trust me, it's all a nice tech demo, some geeky or uninformed early adopters will pick it up as long as the novelty lasts and then it will be dead in the water. A console for it to be successful needs: easy to develop for system, a good controller, some kind of upgradeability (at the moment just in the form of USB ports), it needs to be affordable and it needs strong software more than anything else. At the moment the PS4 is the leader in all of that segments.
The Wii was a one-hit-wonder that hit the nerve of a gaming generation that previously no one tapped into. I'm pretty sure most of all the Wii-Buyers of that big boom are now either dead, grown up and use a PS4 or a PC or still hold onto their original Wii still playing Wii Sports.
Today, in the time of smartphone gaming, a home console needs to be SIMPLE and FUNCTIONAL more than any time before it as it competes with devices that are basically with you all day and everyone has.
Imagine Nintendo would announce the SUPER NINTENDO X.
I'd crap my pant's in joy if they'd announce a "normal" modern controller, up to date specs and PC-architecture for easy development alongside some huge Monster Hunter MMO thing together with it!
Yay!
But in all honesty: I'm happy with Sony and I think creatively and product wise, Nintendo is dead. My opinion.
This is not going to happen. Nintendo will not launch a console that is dependent on it's users having additional hardware (smartphones) to function properly. That would be a halfbaked product and that doesn't really suit Nintendo's mentality.
But including a HMD in the hardware bundle will make it to expensive for the average user, so this analyst is way off mark.
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