Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

@JaxonH Super Mario Maker 1 came out for the 30th anniversary celebration so it makes sense they had multiple Mario games. It was definitely made as an 'extra' at the time. Hard to know how they think of the maker games going forward though; I could imagine them making one with a more expansive story mode or not.

Personally I'm hoping for new style of 2D Mario game soon ish and then Mario Maker 3 (including that new style) early-ish in the next consoles life cycle. I would be extremely happy with new Mario soon/on Switch 1 (and maybe a 3D game for starting the future console) but that may be too much to hope for.

@FishyS
I don't think that's too unreasonable. After all, it has been 11 years since NSMBU, and it's been 6 years since Odyssey. And Mario is their biggest IP. They're definitely cooking something for both 2D and 3D. Maybe we get 2D this holiday (would plug that gap for big holiday title) and we get a 3D entry holiday 2024 as the crescendo of the Switch 2 launch year.

no Nintendo Direct this week/month it seens

@JaxonH me 6 years of the Switch life still waiting for Nintendo to release Metroid Prime 4 on Nintendo Switch and dont make the game a cross-gen. a brand new 2D Mario game, the rumored 2D/3D Donkey Kong game, wave 5/6 for Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Metroid Prime 2/ 3 Remastered or Metroid Prime 4, Super Mario RPG remake/Paper Mario the Thousand Years Door remake/remaster, Pokemon Scarlet/Violet DLC part 1 on holiday, part 2 of DLC early next year.

@Giancarlothomaz
That aged poorly 😀

I hope to goodness Metroid Prime 4 is cross-gen, or better yet, Switch 2 exclusive. At this point, why would anyone want it on Switch when the successor is right around the corner? If it was 2020 I'd be all for it, but 2024 is approaching soon, and I'd prefer to play the next Metroid Prime on a brand spanking new hybrid.

But that's just me.

@JaxonH Metroid Prime 4 is designed around the Switch hardware in mind, Nintendo will not be stupid to betray everyone trust, Metroid Prime 4 is promised for Switch since 2017, Switch sucessor will only release in holiday 2024/early 2025 at the lastest.

@Giancarlothomaz
Switch sucessor will only release in holiday 2024/early 2025 at the lastest

Just like a Direct isn't happening this week, right? 😉

Let's we imagine, what will be looks like for the announcement of Switch 2 if you know the sign of the reveal ?
Cue some recognizable body languages or the actions or the words that lead to reveal of Switch 2.

I assume MP4 is on ice until the launch of Nintendo's next platform.

We still need MP2 HD and MP3 HD between now and then.

@JaxonH a Nintendo Direct, be a mini, general, focused on a game, or a partners showcase, was always garantee to happen this month, Nintendo Switch sucessor in other hand not sure if Nintendo is gonna launch the console until 2025(rumors until Nintendo himself confirm this)

Some clutch imports on preorder at Play-Asia.

@Giancarlothomaz
a Nintendo Direct, be a mini, general, focused on a game, or a partners showcase, was always garantee to happen this month

Not to be all nitpicky, but not 2 posts ago this morning you said this:

no Nintendo Direct this week/month it seems

This is interesting. Ubisoft CEO Guillemot made a statement about Mario Rabbids Sparks of Hope underperforming:

We had already released a Mario Rabbids game [on Switch], so by doing another we had two similar experiences on one machine. On Nintendo, games like this never die. There are 25 Mario games on Switch. Nintendo [has advised] that it’s better to do one iteration on each machine. We were a bit too early, we should have waited for [the next console]. Because you could play a great game. And we think it will last for ten years, because we will update it for the new machine that will come in the future.

Switch 2, more and more, seems to be right around the New Years corner.

@Professor_Plumber

We haven't even had images leaked from manufacturing yet. Usually we see those a couple months before an announcement. I assume Nintendo would want six months of lead time between announcement and launch. So we probably won't hear a peep until September, at the earliest.

That's assuming it'll be a 2024 launch. Which...I don't subscribe to.

I maintain an announcement in 2025 for release in early 2026.

@Professor_Plumber

The moment Nintendo mention new hardware Switch sales will fall off a cliff and software sales will stagnate. Nintendo can't do that. They've got a target of 15 million Switches to sell this year and we're in a recession. Gamers of every degree, whether casual or hardcore, will immediately begin scrimping and saving for new hardware and new games the moment that announcement drops.

@Professor_Plumber

Yup, the hype and anticipation for tomorrow's Direct is palpable. Doubly so for me considering I had assumed Nintendo were skipping June in favor of a September Direct. I just hope this Direct won't be simply wall-to-wall DLC.

"DLC for Splatoon 3, DLC for Pokemon, DLC for Tears of the Kingdom, DLC for Sparks of Hope.

That's all folks. We'll see you again soon." -Nintendo

It's true an announcement will plummet sales. But that is why I believe they'll announce mid-January with a late March or April release. 60-90 day build up just like Switch got. Only difference would be skipping the October tease.

That said, it's entirely possible they tease this October just like they did for Switch. Would that kill holiday sales? Not so sure. Most core Switch fans already have one or have upgraded to the OLED. Holidays sales are normie sales made via Mario Kart bundles, and normies won't be tuned into a tease made mere weeks prior to Black Friday, nor will they likely care anyways. Yet it would give Nintendo plausible deniability against accusations of "tricking" people onto buying Switch right before Switch 2. I think avoiding such accusations matters to them, and they're willing to risk a small hit to sales, while at the same time attempting to minimize the impact on holiday sales to normies.

Either way, I expect Switch 2 to be fully confirmed and revealed by the end of January, at the latest.

As for the Direct, I think we'll see the new Mario, Fire Emblem Holy War, Metal Gear Solid Collection, Persona 3 Reload, Final Fantasy Tactics Remastered (please be HD-2D, even though I know it won't be), Pikmin 4 details, Metroid Prime 2/3 HD, F-Zero GX HD, and some random 3rd party stocking stuffers.

I know there's talk of Paper Mario TTYD Remastered, but... I'll believe it when I see it.

The wildcard would be Nintendo stretching this generation one more year to holiday 2024 / spring 2025. I used to think that was the release window but, I've since changed my mind. It feels too paper thin. Interest is waning. If they admit it'll be a struggle to even hit 15m this FY, they'll be fighting to climb out of single digits the year after. And that is exactly why they've struggled with past generational transitions. Waiting too long, letting interest fizzle out, not striking while the iron is still somewhat hot. If they have truly learned lessons and are taking the PS approach, they'll go out with a bang on their final year, and I think having a new Fire Emblem, new Zelda, new Pikmin, new Mario, etc fits that bill perfectly.

@JaxonH

Too bullish, imo. I think maybe...folks who are hopeful for a 2024 Switch-successor launch don't quite grasp how white hot Switch still is at retail? Yes, it's trending downwards, all platforms do eventually. But tens of millions of consoles sold in one year is still more than many classic platforms had sold in their entire lifetimes. Saturn, Dreamcast, TG-16, PS Vita, Wii U, etc.

No.

Looking at the investor Q & A back in May (question #4, paragraph three), it screams to me that Nintendo are going to milk the Switch until it's dry.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2023/230510e.pdf

"From that standpoint as well, we believe that how we maintain a high level of consumers actively playing Nintendo dedicated video game platforms while transitioning to the next generation of hardware will be a very important topic going forward. However, at this stage, we believe that our top priorities are maintaining and expanding the utilization of Nintendo Switch, which has entered its
seventh year since launch, and maintaining business momentum." -Furukawa

60-90 day build up just like Switch got.

60-90 days? We were aware of the NX in 2015. Two years before the 2017 launch. Do we currently have anything on the Switch successor beyond chipset supposition?

@JaxonH If they were truly taking the "do or die" approach they mentioned about years ago, they would've launched new hardware with TotK because launching new hardware with a new 3D Zelda has a 100% success rate. Given that didn't happen, I think they're going to do what they did with Wii and try to keep the Switch going as long as possible because Switch is still a success meanwhile the successor could flop. Spring 2024 reveal with Fall/Holiday 2024 release sounds a reasonable guess but no earlier.

@Magician
I wouldn't say I'm hopeful for it. Well... I take that back. I am. But my desire isn't impacting my reasoning. My conclusion is entirely logic-based and has nothing to do with emotion or desire whatsoever.

I absolutely agree they'll milk it. But they'll milk it while also selling Switch 2. PS4 sold 20 million units it's final year. Switch is going to struggle to hit 15. Waiting any longer is just repeating the exact same mistakes they've made in the past, and Nintendo have made it abundantly clear they intend to not repeat those mistakes.

Of course they're gonna talk the talk like Switch will be around forever. That's their job. They have to convince consumers to buy. You gotta read deeper if you want to find out what's really going on in their minds.

@Grumblevolcano
Don't think Zelda is the only option. They could have learned from their past mistakes going out with a whimper and this time tried to replicate PS4-PS5 transition with a banger year. There are other launch titles just as good as Zelda, such as 3D Mario or Mario Kart, and with a TotK complete edition with new season pass, it can still muster quite a bit of pull on the side.

Only reason Zelda had a 100% success rate is they only did it twice, and just so happened to do it with their smash hit systems. Guarantee you launching Zelda with Wii U or GameCube would have done nothing to change their fates. Launching Zelda is a great strategy, but it is far from the only one. And the strategy I see them taking requires not just a massive launch title, but a massive final year to build momentum and interest as much as possible going into the transition, just like PS did. And that will certainly be their template next time.

@JaxonH, @Magician e @Grumblevolcano Nintendo will milk this fortune cow that is Switch until is dry, and then it anouce it sucessor, but let hope Nintendo has learned, and anounce Switch sucessor when Switch hype is still hot