Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

Nintendo has updated their IR calendar. Their Q2 Financial Results Briefing is scheduled for Oct. 27. It will be interesting to see what Nintendo has to say tomorrow.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/index.html

I'm actually looking forward to what they have to say and the thought process behind that.

@fascinatura As I said, it's not all about games, though you're dismissing PS4 by saying it didn't get any exclusives apart from NMS this year and by saying that the Xbox One has been churning out exclusives left and right. That's far from true actually. First of all, it's easy to dismiss the Wii U, cause it was pretty expensive, it actually didn't get the games (third party games I mean) and I don't think that many people consider Nintendo titles as system sellers anymore. Look at the most popular franchises; COD, GTA and FIFA. Then there's Fallout, Madden, NBA 2K, etc. And other popular games like Overwatch, Destiny and Star Wars Battlefront. The Wii U got none of that. It got a port of Assassin's Creed 3 & 4, and a late port of Watch_Dogs. When you're missing out on all these popular games, you're missing out on sales as well. Besides, the marketing for Wii U has been piss-poor as well. In hindsight, it's easy to see why it wasn't very popular in the end.

Now, going back to the exclusives. I think you completely forgot about Uncharted 4, Ratchet & Clank and Street Fighter V this year. Their big exclusives are more varied too, from adventure games to puzzle games, narrative driven games and shooters. At least, that's the general message everyone is perceiving. Just a quick Wiki search reveals that the PS4 has 180 exclusive games listed (includes upcoming games, timed and console exclusives). Meanwhile the Xbox One has 50 games listed. That's probably due to the fact that the PS4 is the better selling console at the moment. How did that happen? Well, that's the result if you try to include a $100 mandatory peripheral in your launch bundle that nobody cares about. The initial reveal was pretty bad for Xbox One. Once they lowered the price and dropper the Kinect, the price was equal, but the damage was already done. Sony offered a better deal at launch, got the higher install base and will most likely get the better deals from now on. Even games like Rise of the Tomb Raider made its way onto the PS4. It completely flopped on Xbox One. I don't even want to know how much Microsoft paid for that exclusive deal, and unfortunately it didn't even pay off in the end.

Console launches are more important than some people seem to think; screw them up and you'll have a hard time recovering. The console that offers the best price, the most popular games and has the best marketing will often trump the the competition.

In the next 2 weeks, several major Japanese companies will be posting their Q2 Earnings. I wonder if they are going to mention the Switch at all during their results briefings.

10/27 - Capcom Q2 Earnings
10/27 - Koei Tecmo Q2 Earnings
10/28 - Capcom Q2 Briefing
10/28 - Koei Tecmo Q2 Briefing
10/28 - Konami Q2 Earnings / Q2 Briefing
11/02 - Sega Sammy Q2 Earnings / Q2 Briefing
11/08 - Square Enix Q2 Earnings / Q2 Briefing
11/08 - Bandai Namco Q2 Earnings / Q2 Briefing

The Monster Hunter Direct will occur shortly after Capcom's earnings release, but Nintendo has specifically stated that it's not Switch related.

@MumboJumbo Didn't know that, maybe they will. I'd like to see some positive buzz from third-party. Capcom and Square would be very welcome since they have the largest mass-appeal. Koei, Sega and Namco might put out some cool things (hoping for a Tekken 7 por here). Not expecting anything from Konami.

Alright, I'll give you my impressions about the Switch. Note: The following is based on what appeared in the video, and my opinions, so don't take my words for it:

First, I've seen the trailer so many times, because I was amazed by the concept, where you play your game at home, and continue on-the-go without any boundaries or interruptions. The problem is the "on-the-go" part, If Nintendo did this part right by improving the battery life of the Switch console, that would be a money-maker for them, as this was the part why many were impressed by the portability of this console. But of course, Nintendo said that Switch is "Home console first before it's portable", so I don't think that the battery life would be 5-7 hours long.

Second, including an Nvidia GPU was a brilliant idea because of the recent success of its latest GPU line-up. However, unless we hear the full specs of the custom Tegra processor, we can't really determine if it's going to be as powerful as the other consoles, and since it's Nintendo we're talking about, we should keep our expectation for "Switch is as powerful as XBone or PS4" very low for now.

Next, and the most important one is games, and this is why Switch exists. The Wii U had a rough time having 3rd party AAA games because of the time/cost of the Wii U game development, and many well-known developers have left the Wii U's ship after months of the launch for that reason, and also how difficult it is to port a game to Wii U. The good news is with Nvidia's new APIs for Nintendo Switch, game developing will be less difficult, and we can expect more games to come if the Nintendo Switch is a huge success. The choice of using cartridges is a great choice because not only will this reduce the cost of the Switch, but this will make game portability much easier. We are in the era where DVDs are slowly dying, and most of the users around the world would prefer using compact memory such as USB flash or hard-drive to put the media in.

Finally, accessibility. From the trailer, we saw the control variations of the Switch, from using the Joy-Cons for a full single player experience to sharing the Joy-cons with your friends to use the Switch Pro controller for traditional gaming, And this was the part why the Wii U was enjoyable. More controller options means better gameplay experience, so hats off to Nintendo for that.

And I hope this didn't take you a lot of time...until then, have a nice day.

@Azooooz
It is an interesting piece, and I share many of your opinions specially the third and fourth points.

I'm still willing to give them the benefit of the doubt with the Switch's battery, though, based on my experience with the Pro Controller's battery. I don't know what it uses, but it is godly. I think I have charged it.... three or four times in two years?
The Gamepad's battery was a disaster, I won't disagree in that, and there are rumors of bad battery life, but maybe they find a way to fix that before launch. Who knows.

With the news that the Switch won't be sold at a loss, but that they're still listening to what customers expect, I am going to predict $350.

@Operative I think they already said that a while ago, didn't they? Most people expect $250-$300 from what I've read, apart from the people that are willing to pay $400+ as long as its a Nintendo system. Still sticking with my original prediction of $299. Can't see it being more expensive than that. Wouldn't even be surprised if it ended up being $250.

Unless they got a ridiculously absolutely amazing deal on those Tegra's which are at the very least as powerful as a Wii U, I doubt it'll be below $300. But we'll see once we get final specs

@Operative The Nvidia Shield Tablet was $199 when it launched three years ago. Assuming this uses the Tegra X2, and Nintendo got a good deal, $299 is definitely possible. $249 might be a stretch, but we don't know. It really depends on how much tech is in the other parts of the system. I don't think it includes a camera, not sure if motion controls are a thing. Those aren't expensive parts, but it may make a difference of a couple of tenners in the end.

@Octane I can see them getting a good deal. From what Nvidia has said, it's all custom, just based around Tegra, which means efficiency overall. Nvidia tech is something third parties will know ("The Way Its Meant To Be Played" and all that), and the nature of pure custom tech, as worked on by both parties, means that both sides will have found an optimal price/power/energy/production cost balance. It wont need any extra fluff from Tegra like automation, just gaming.

I hope...

It actually launched in two SKUs. One with 16GB and WiFi for $299US and the other with 32GB of storage and 4G for $399. And in terms of raw performance it was basically on par with the Wii U. They actually marketed it as being a tablet that was more powerful than the 360/PS3. So yeah, 3 years ago a tablet as powerful as the Wii U was definitely a thing.

But things have progressed in three years. Three years on? They can probably fit 32-64GB in it without going above $299. They can probably at least double that performance. You'd expect more RAM than the 2GB that was in the Shield Tablet. Those things they will be able to do before they even consider the things that they won't need

I don't think it'll have 4G, I don't think it'll have a full 1080p display. We know it won't have an 8" display because we've seen it in the trailers and it's not that big. It probably won't have the dual 5MP cameras. Those things not being included could reduce costs so that they can include the dock, joycons and whatever else is in the box. Also a potential for a tidy margin.

So I think $249-299 with 32GB of storage, 4GB of RAM, the Joycons and somewhere between the Wii U and XBOne. Closer to the XBOne with maybe a bit more storage and a better battery if the cost leans more on the higher end. More of an overclocked portable Wii U with effectively BYO storage if it's super cheap. /2c

@Octane I didn't say NMS was the only EXCLUSIVE to come out this year. I just said that it's seemingly been the only hugely hyped game to come out this year so far... although Last Guardian is dropping at the end of this year. Ratchet and Clank and Uncharted always sell a few million, but they come around often enough that they're like Assassin's Creed at this point. They're taken as a given. Fallout 4 and Destiny I agree are big games but they came out last year. Overwatch (other than NMS) seems to me to be the only hugely hyped game to come out this year, but it seems to be seen as a game to play on your PC. I personally know a couple of gamers that have PS4s that chose to get Overwatch for their PC instead. Now, the truth is Overwatch did sell the best on PS4 (47% of sales) than other platforms, but I think 18% of sales for PC was enough to prevent it from truly being a huge title for the PS4. Hence, that's why so much hope was put into No Man's Sky. Now, my point about the Xbox One pushing out exclusives... Sure, the wiki shows that the PS4 has MORE exclusives. But let's break it down by exclusives that matter (big games).

Xbox One: Titanfall, Halo 5, Dead Rising 3, Sunset Overdrive, Forza games, Gears of War 4

PS4: Bloodbourne, Alienation, Driveclub, Infamous games, Killzone Shadow Fall, The Last of Us Remastered, LittleBigPlanet 3, The Order 1886, Ratchet & Clank, Uncharted 4, Street Fighter V

More PS4 "big game" exclusives, but I feel like most of them have been AA titles, whereas Xbox One's, while fewer, have been AAA titles (except Sunset Overdrive). Several of those games were also disappointing — Driveclub, Killzone, LBP3 (not critically panned, but didn't seem to set the world on fire like the original did on PS3), The Order, and Street Fighter V (the most infamous example.) As of right now, the PS4 has had THREE exclusives that were hyped but ended up being so disappointed that there was massive backlash (NMS, The Order, and Street Fighter V).

Nintendo's big IPs don't seem to be system sellers anymore. Still, Mario Kart 8 did sell to a tune of 7 million (on a 13 mil install base, that's an insane attach rate!) And the Wii U has very high attach rates for first party titles in general. A lot of that probably has to do with the fact that those were the only titles for Wii U owners to buy due to the lack of third party ones; but I also think that the people loyal to Nintendo's IPs were mainly the ones that bought the Wii U and that explains the relatively fantastic sales of some of the titles despite the low install base. At the same time, I think if Nintendo's titles released on the PS4, the sales would be astronomical. I suspect there are a large amount of people that want to play them but aren't willing to buy another console just to do so. I also still don't think the lack of 3rd party support was the main reason the Wii U didn't sell. I feel like people wouldn't want to play Call of Duty and such using the Wii U because of the way the console was designed. The Wii U is well made, but compared to the competition it does feel a bit more like a toy than a premium electronic device.

But in the end, I think "the games" available aren't even THAT important. The PS4 might have some games now, but it was woeful at launch and people still went out and bought it in droves. Also, I agree with you that a strong launch matters, but interestingly enough, the PS3 had a difficult launch (thanks to the high price tag), but still ended up outselling the Xbox 360 by the end of the console generation. How did it turn itself around? I think the tech in the PS3 (blu-ray and wifi), while it made it too expensive at launch, helped to make it more attractive in the long run after the price of the PS3 came down. Most of a console's sales don't occur at launch, and they accrue at a good pace throughout the console's lifespan. In 2010, there was still tons of people that hadn't jumped into the 7th gen yet, meaning there was still time for the PS3 to make a comeback-- and it did! Because at that point, the price and value of the PS3 hit a sweet spot, and became more attractive than the Xbox 360 and it's annoying lack of wifi and inability to play blu-rays.

And just because the PS4 has jumped out ahead doesn't mean it's over. The Switch does have the potential to shake things up. There's a lot of the market left to be had. There are plenty of potential customers that haven't jumped into the 8th gen yet. If the Switch can get third party multiplats (and maybe some exclusives too!) that would be fantastic.But I think even if it doesn't it will still be successful. The Western AAA gaming fans might be a good chunk of the market, but they're not all of it. They're not even the majority. They're the biggest single GROUP of gamers, sure. But there are still millions of gamers looking for other types of games. In truth, the gaming market is probably very segmented. For instance, I am in that group that is still loyal to the old Japanese franchises like Nintendo's lineup, Metal Gear Solid, Resident Evil, etc. and couldn't give two shits about the latest and greatest FPS to come out. And I know there are still tons of others like me. PS Vita even has a loyal following, because every time a niche Japanese game comes out I see comments from Vita owners whining for a Vita version. Then there are of course the so-called "casual" gamers. My friend declares herself as one-- what does she play? Smartphones games and a few games on Steam. The games on Steam she owns are few but they're telling. The games she owns and plays on Steam are Stacking, Audiosurf, and Town of Salem. There's even a segment out there that want to play "console quality games" on their tablets-- look at the community on TouchArcade.com and fans of the nVidia store games on Android. Heck, Gameloft has made a killing making console-like games for mobile devices, so it's not that mobile gamers don't WANT these experiences, it's just that their tablet is their choice device and if that means forgoing actual Call of Duty to play whatever COD clone Gameloft puts out then so be it. And it's not just mobile devices getting "console" games either. There are mobile games on the eShop and PSN. Angry Birds got a retail release on PS3...

In the end, I think the Nintendo Switch will succeed if people want to own the device and if there's a variety of games and apps available for it. It's got potential to really succeed, we just have to see how impressed people are with the hybrid console design.

@skywake You're right, got it mixed up with the current price. But yeah, doesn't look like it'll have cameras or anything like that. I expect the dock to be fairly simple; power brick and additional cooling. The Joy-Con will have their own batteries, but I don't think they'll require much at all. $299 is definitely possible, and I dont think many are willing to pay a lot more for it.

The perception Nintendo needs to feed is that the games are pure console quality, yet you can bring them with you.

That's the switch.

@fascinatura MK8 was confirmed today to have reached the 8 million mark. Pretty impressive attach rate though it further displays the point that Mario Kart must be a Switch launch title.

@Monkey_Balls That looks like Micro USB type c

The reason the Wii U Pro Controller's battery life is impressive isn't because of battery technology, but because it barely uses any power. It's not really fair to compare it to the Gamepad because the Pro Controller had no gyroscope, giant touch screen, or video input. All it has are buttons, a tiny light, and possibly rumble.

The Switch, on top of that, is going to be pushing out home console performance in addition to these things, in addition to a screen that may or may not be a touch screen, and possibly a gyroscope. Replace the video receiver with a remote connection to the joy-cons. Its gonna guzzle up a lot of power, so hopefully they've got some kind of solution.

Mario Kart at launch or at least in the first year I feel is pretty important. They might be able to get away with revealing a future MK next year and releasing it in 2018 as long as there are other appealing games for the system during this time.

I feel that MINECRAFT is something they need to make sure comes to the Switch, either . I think it's likely to happen now that Mojang and Nintendo have a relationship after finally getting the game on the U. It's just one of those games that keeps on selling. Minecraft is the top selling VITA game. And if there is significant adoption of the Switch by mobile gamers, I could totally see them buying the full version of Minecraft on the Switch to play on the go.

I wish Nintendo would branch out a little bit with their first party titles. Mario and Zelda are great, but I wish they would ensure other types of games come to the system either through first party development or third party collaborations. There are definitely signs that they are trying to do this — they took a risk with Splatoon and it paid off. W101 didn't do so hot though. Hyrule Warriors worked out. But I think they should collaborate with Western studios! I'm thinking a cutting-edge racing, FPS, or survival horror game. And maybe have their first party studios work on something experimental. Ninty takes risks with their hardware, but I think they need to bring some of that innovation to their software. Why is it that games like Minecraft, Five Nights at Freddy's, and Goat Simulator are so popular? Because the gameplay is open-ended and unpredictable. Meaning, every time you play, it plays out a little differently, and every person that plays the game has a different experience from another. This leads to people sharing (and streaming) personal stories about the game which leads to the game going "viral". Mario Maker was supposed to be that game for Nintendo, and it seemed to somewhat succeed - it definitely got gamers attention and there's a vibrant online community around the game - but it didn't seem to sell many Wii Us. In the end, I think Mario Maker didn't go truly viral because at the end of the day... it was still Mario and still much more constrained than a game like Minecraft. And let's be honest, most of us play Mario for those expertly crafted levels that Nintendo designs.