Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2019/02/nintendo_readying_on...
Pikmin 4 confirmed!!!!!!!!!!

On a more serious note, of course Nintendo have unannounced games. If they didn't I would start to worry, because they need more output.

Hmm, maybe the setup will be this then for FF:
February - VII, IX
March - Chocobo's Dungeon, Crystal Chronicles
April - X/X-2 HD, XII

FFVII appeared in a recent Nintendo ad:

@Therad If it isn't Pikmin 4 I'll riot.

It’s not Pikmin 4...Pikmin would need to have actual “fans” first 🤫 Jaxon and Octane doesn’t constitute a fanbase.

My guess is, Metroid Prime Trilogy, F-Zero GX HD LMNOP Edition, or Persona 5 published by Nintendo

@CurryPowderKeg79 Don't forget that the FF games are also releasing on XB1. As Nintendo seem to be on good terms with Microsoft, I could see them possibly sharing the announcements (e.g. Nintendo got the initial reveal, Microsoft gets the release date reveal). Also after the trainwreck known as X018, Inside Xbox could do with some big announcements.

Better start practicing in that case.

Pikmin is certainly delightful though.

sigh I’ll start soaking the torches. Can someone find Octane’s pitchfork? Yes, I know it’s still in the packaging, but just in case he means it this time.

@Grumblevolcano Agreed, though I don't think Crystal Chronicles will launch until May or June.

@Therad I think a Zelda is definitely happening too, but I don't think it will be a new game in the series. I can see it being either Windwaker HD or the "teased" Skyward Sword HD.

As for Pikmin 4, I can easily see that getting announced with a flashy trailer... and then the words "Coming in the Next Decade. Maybe. Perhaps. We'll See. Please Understand."

@JackEatsSparrows He’s hiding it behind the frame of American Gothic.

@GyroZeppeli That piece is his inspiration. I hear he put felt cutouts of Pikmin all over it.

@FragRed Decade? You're giving me hope!

I think when they finally announce Pikmin 4 they’ll drop the number and give it a descriptive title like “Pikmin:We found it down the back of the couch in Miyamoto Office”, or “Pikmin:The Bloody Intern took it home by mistake”

Chocobo’s Dungeon releases March 20th in Japan and Asia. There is an English Asian physical release up on Play-Asia already.

All the other Final Fantasy games are releasing the same day, so I would imagine that would hold true for Chocobo’s Dungeon as well, which will probably be digital only in North America if I had to guess

I think I’ve found a general model to predict video game sales, using some nifty calculus in the process (see, calculus is useful!). Well, I didn’t totally figure it out myself, because I got some information from research which can be found here: Predicting Video Game Sales In The European Market

In any case, the formulas they use have been whited out so that no one can read them. But they did specify the logarithmic and exponential formulas didn’t map well, due to sales converging below 0 after a period of time. And while none of the models are perfect, they said they used the power formula for weekly software sales and polynomial model for hardware sales. They show the coefficients (A, B, C, D) of the cubic equation in a graphed image, so the hardware sales formula is spelled out pretty plainly for all to see. I was more interested in modeling general software sales.

The average for coefficient B across all video games, according to their data, is 0.8. Assuming A is the initial week 1 sales figure, we can conclude the sales model is as follows: A*x^(-B) where we can use 0.8 as a general approximation for any game. And it maps out a curve dang-near identical to the graphs in the study for actual sales game by game, provided you plug in the appropriate B coefficient for that game (which is given, thankfully, in the graph for each game). Keep in mind special cause variation, such as holidays, will affect the sales curve. According to their research it does typically fall back to the curve after holiday sales bump, nonetheless, we’d only want to use this to forecast sales in a normal time period.

The trick here is limiting the domain to x≥1, since the function explodes as it approaches 0 and even reflects across the Y-axis into negative territory. But if we use a restricted domain, it maps beautifully.

We can then take the integral of the function between 1 and 12 to calculate total sales of the first 12 weeks. I suppose we could extend the evaluated range, but I’m not sure if I trust the accuracy the further out we go. So I’ve limited the evaluation to the first 12 weeks, just in case.

For a game that sells 55k in its first week, for example, here would be the projected total sales after 12 weeks, as well as the formulas to find the sales at any given week, and total sales at any given week.

Y-axis = number of 1,000 sales
X-axis = number of weeks
Top Equation = predicts sales after X weeks
Btm Equation = predicts total sales after 12 weeks (could integrate over any time period desired though)

Using the B coefficient from Super Smash Bros Brawl on Wii of 0.91, and taking the official number of 5 million copies Smash sold in its first week (incl. digital) we can predict Smash Bros Switch will sell roughly 23 million copies after it’s first year on the market. Granted, it released in December, and all games released in December are affected by the holiday bump. So this prediction is likely skewed due to that, not to mention the B coefficient is likely a bit different for the Switch release. Still, it’s a reasonable estimate. Even if we assume 3-5 million from the holiday bump, that still gives us a rough 18-20 mil estimate (total incl. digital sales) for the end of 2019.

I was quite surprised by some of the games on the best selling list while on the eShop before. Ranked fifth atm is Super One More Jump which is by the same devs as Death Squared, so they have some clout, still I had never seen it on the charts until now. Glad to see it doing well as It's one of my personal faves.

Wargroove is #1 now. Good work to that game for dethroning Mario and Smash! Definitely seems like a very high quality game.

@bixente I think it (SOMJ) was on sale for a low price recently.

@JaxonH "Pikmin would need to have actual “fans” first "

DAYUM. Shots fired.

The second post...ouch that needs some translation to "non-mathemetician-ese"