Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

But the mobile space has changed a lot since 2011, you can't look only at install bases and thinking they paint the whole picture. Why is it better to compete with smartphones than game consoles?

What demographic would an handheld target?

• Many bought a DS/3DS to give to their children, that demographic is completely wiped out since you can buy tablets cheaper than even the 2ds. (Me!)
• "Casuals" are perfectly fine with smartphones. Why would they want another thing to play on?
• Those that bought 3DS or Wii U as a secondary console? Wouldn't that demographic be better served by a cheaper home console, instead of paying premium for it to be handheld? (Me again * 2)

Personally, I am not interested at all in an handheld. I want a console I can play multiplayer with my daughters, Wii U is perfectly fine for that. An handheld... not so much. I am not saying I won't buy it, but I will wait.

And those mythical long lost 3rd parties, I don't believe that for one second. Companies have always, always been on consoles that have been successful. The reason they are not on Wii U is because the install base is small, nothing more. For crying out loud, it has never been so easy to port against different hardwares as it has been now.

@IceClimbers and for the most part nintendos wii u games have been more or less bigger, prettier versions of their 3ds games. and nintendo simply isnt going to have the time and resources for radically different experiences between systems anymore.

I don't think I am going to get what I want either, but I am just expressing my opinion here.

@IceClimbers I think you miss the point when I say the two systems offer a different experience. Lets take a game like Skyrim (generic RPG that tons of people have played) you offer them to play it on the go, sounds exciting. Actually playing the game on a portable is boring, why? On a portable system, you expect to be able to have enjoyment in less time. When you sit down to play a Home Console, you may have 30 minutes to a few hours to play. When you take out your portable system, you are more likely waiting for something else (bus, meeting to finish, video to buffer) and so you have less time to play. In a game as massive as Skyrim those shorter play times will lead to play sessions full of nothing. Pull out Skyrim for 5 minutes, maybe you kill some wild life on your way to your quest, you don't even get to the next quest most of the time. It would take several play sessions to get to the next quest, where the meat of the game is.

Lets take a look at the Mario 3D series. (not 64/Subshine/Galaxy) Super Mario 3D Land has shorter levels and they are all single-player levels, compared to Super Mario 3D World which some of those levels take longer, and are designed to have more players in them. If Land was on a Home Console, you would complete the game too fast and it wouldn't be near as enjoyable. If World was on a portable, you may not be able to complete a level in a single play session. Captain Toad's Treasure Tracker's puzzles couldn't be as complicated or take as long in a single portable gaming session.

"Simple solution, plan for longer gaming sessions. Just play your phone when you want something quick." Then why have a portable system at all if you are just going to play on your phone while on the go? Because people want something that is deeper mechanically than most phone games are. because they want the advantages that come with playing on a dedicated gaming platform. There are things that are different between portable and home console, including UI design. If Nintendo is just making a portable, then I don't think many games will be big titles like Zelda: BotW. I expect more games that are similar to 3D Land/World and less like 64/Sunshine/Galaxy. Expect more games like Federation Force and less like Super Metroid.

Or I could be completely wrong, Nintendo could surprise all of us and truly deliver something amazing. I didn't enjoy my time with the Nividia Shield but maybe others did. Maybe people actually want the home console experience on their portables... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REaUzHef9h4

i suspect nintendo game pricing is going to be quite flexible on nx.

@DefHalan Well you do have some good points but the 3ds is not an iphone a 3ds you also play at home and not usually when waiting for something. sometime you just are waiting for something and whip out your 3ds but tell me when have you not wanted to play pokemon or animal crossing new leaf at home. Also are you implying that you can complete 3d land levels in a-few minutes

@isaiahhoyt some you can do in seconds

@BiasedSonyFan Boiling it down to that level is moving the goalposts, and you know that.

You can't tell me that games like Luigi's Mansion Dark Moon, Kid Icarus Uprising, and bloody Xenoblade Chronicles aren't typically seen as console like experiences. The lines have blurred. Period.

@DefHalan Great post. Pokémon showed you can do an RPG on a handheld, but those games are heavily scripted and grinding is usually confined to small areas at a time. The exact opposite of Skyrim like you mentioned.

@isaiahhoyt Most 3D Land levels can be completed quickly compared to most 3D World levels. You don't have to only play a 3DS in short sessions but it is one of the major benefits of having a system with you at all times. I do play Pokemon and Animal Crossing in longer sessions and normally at home, but they are more of an exception than the normal.

@GrailUK Thanks. I put way too much time in that post and I hope it can clear things up for a lot of people. Also thanks for pointing out one way Pokemon is actually designed for portables in their own way compared to something like Skyrim. I should have said something about that lol.

@DefHalan personally my commute has 2 hour down time of both traveling and waiting so I get time to play and I love play my 3DS at home but I'm one of them gamer that's about the enjoyment over graphics. The thing is the 3DS has a mixture of short bite game and normal standed game.

Dark Moon's mission layout makes it better for quicker game sessions. Xenoblade Chronicles is a console experience and I am not sure why they ported it to the New 3DS outside of its limited release on Wii, Shulk's popularity from Smash, and wanting to show off the "power" of the New 3DS. Kid Icarus is kinda a mixed bag. It actually feels like they made a console experience then ported it to a portable with some edits.

@Frostyboy Which is fine, but there are games that don't work as well on portable. (like Skyrim) Just like there are games that work better on portable than home consoles. (like Streetpass Plaza games)

@Therad
Sorry, but I just totally disagree. You're refusing to think of it as anything other than the smart phone game we see right now, which is exactly what I started my post by saying NOT to do.

Also, what's with the sarcastic bit about people walking around with their 3DS systems? I couldn't tell if you were intentionally being facetious, because you realize that's what people already do, right? And I don't even live in Japan, where it's even more common.

My point remains as strong as ever. If you can just put aside what we see right now and forget the smart phone Pokemon Go even exists, the mere CONCEPT of Pokemon Go executed with the added power of a handheld system like the potential NX, would be game changing. Absolutely game changing. The only thing is, indeed, the need for data. There are numerous ways to get around that, one of the foremost being simple Bluetooth and NFC working in tandem with pre-loaded Google maps of areas. You could even work it into the gameplay. You load your surrounding area for the day and set out on your adventure (all Pokemon and gym locations preloaded, as well) to find everything, and retire at night to rest and recharge. The maps could be refreshed and updated only when you are on a WiFi network. Boom. Problem solved. It's not the way a typical game works, but Pokemon Go even as it exists now is not a typical game. And that's kinda what Nintendo is going for. You just have to think creatively - that's how new things come about.

In terms of marketshare the split between regions of the Vita was about the same as the 3DS. The only major difference being that the Vita bombed in general. Not really what I was suggesting. I was thinking more along the lines of the sales splits we've traditionally seen for NA. But with Japan rather than the NA being where the majority of sales come from.

I agree with you on a lot of things but, whether it's our biases or something else, I don't agree with you on this. And unlike some I think I have a decent argument to back it up with.

On the first point? I'm not convinced the mobile market has changed that much since 2011. And to the extent it has it hasn't changed since the 3DS was at its peak in 2013. Sure mobile data has got cheaper and devices in general have improved. But in general I'd argue that any damage mobile gaming has done to portables has already happened. And it happened before the 3DS.

And sure, you're right that some of the more casual market has gone. It won't come back. People who brought into the DS for Layton, Brain Age and Pictochat? They're not coming back. I know of a few people who fit that description. But the thing is, these people didn't buy into the 3DS either. They aren't the sort of people to get new gadgets on Day 1 anyways. By the time the 3DS was even an option? Not only where there no games for them but the iPad was already a mature product.

And on the last point. I'd again argue the reverse. I'd argue that someone who wants a second device? They're not after the same thing with different content. Ideally they want something that can be used in situations where the other gadget can't. You don't buy two desktop PCs if you want two PCs. You get a desktop with high specs and a laptop/tablet that's super portable. If you want a second mobile device you don't get another phone, you get a tablet because of the bigger screen.

Same deal with a second console. As much as you might argue otherwise I think there are more people who disagree. If I had a PS4/XBOne/PC and I wanted a second machine? I'd get something that was portable. Because as nice as my PC is? The one thing it isn't is portable. If I get something that is portable then I have everything.

No you said 'A "fully optimized" sort of Pokemon Go game that would have launched, for the first time, on the NX, would've have been a MASSIVE success'. And I see an handheld as something truly different from smartphones. It wouldn't be a massive success on an handheld, because it would be a totally different experience. You are asking millions of people to buy a secondary console, people you in the same post say won't buy a $40 game. Why would those people suddenly start buying a device for at least $200? Does that sound plausible?

It has been shown that handhelds are mostly used at home. But that wasn't the point, it was the same people that are playing pokemon go would start buying and carrying around a secondary device just for one game.

Most of the success of Pokemon go is because people already had a device in their pocket that could play the newest hype. The install base of smartphones/tablets is something north of two billion devices, numbers that are astronomical in the console market. It took 1.5 years for the Wii to have the same install base as the numbers of daily active users PoGo have.

And that wouldn't be anywhere near as successful as PoGo is. Just such a simple concept as seeing a gym battle happening in real-time becomes impossible and that would also happen with lures. It totally destroys the whole social aspect which is what makes it truly unique. Without a persistent world it would be a worse version of Pokemon Sun/Moon, with neither the depth of sun/moon nor the social part of PoGo.

The smartphone market has changed significantly, there really wasn't any cheap phones nor tablets at that time. Since 2011 the smartphone market is 3x-4x times as large now, much thanks to cheaper phones. This isn't anything to sneeze at. My prediction is that the market will shrink even more this generation, an handheld (even a powerful one) is just a subset of a smartphone. Even worse, they are competing with themselves in the handheld space since they have started to produce smartphone games.

It all depends on how Nintendo themselves see this product. Will it be able to have local multiplayer for example? Without buying a second NX? If I need to buy two tablets for 2x$200 (or more probable 3x$200), I would rather buy one of the other consoles on the market.

Btw, Nintendo is a business, it isn't just about keeping market shares they want to expand their market. I don't think the EG leak would do that. But on the other hand, I think it is more to it than that. At least I hope it is.

@Therad
Again, I don't think comparing the tablet/smartphone market of 2011 is at all relevant. The people who got a 3DS in the first year were people who probably had a smartphone already. They were all early adopters so they were probably ahead of the curve in other categories also.

If you want to talk about how the market has changed since the 3DS? You need to look at what has happened to the mobile market since around 2013. When the 3DS peaked. And since then there hasn't been the same level of growth. Especially in developed countries. I'm looking at one chart now that shows a 50% growth in smartphone users in the UK between 2011 and 2013. But only a 17% growth between 2013 and 2015. With projections for it to continue levelling out going forward. Like pretty much every product adoption bell-curve does.

The smartphone/tablet explosion happened before the 3DS. It wasn't a thing that crept up on it. It was a thing that had already smashed them.

@skywake we will see. But I still think they haven't abandoned home consoles.

@Therad They have abandoned conventional home consoles. Anyone hoping for 'the most powerful home console ever (tm)' I think will be disappointed and maybe should have bought a PC, Xbox or PS earlier.

Edit* Although those that are not expecting the most powerful console ever (me) would welcome being surprised at the reveal!