Topic: The Nintendo Switch Thread

I think Nintendo will treat the Switch like they treated the 3DS, New Nintendo Switch releasing around 2021 which is slightly more powerful but that power isn't really used until around 2024.

As for the other 2, I think 2020 for PS5 (no backwards compatibility) and 2021 for XB1 successor (full backward compatibility with everything you can play on XB1).

Also at some point, Sony buys the Monster Hunter franchise from Capcom to prevent Switch from getting any future games.

@Grumblevolcano I fully expect the PS5 to be backwards compatible. Same with the Xbox successor. Though I'm not sure Microsoft will do another 'traditional' console. I think they may call it Xbox, but it'll be Windows 10 in a box, they're practically halfway there already.

@Grumblevolcano What would be the selling point of the PS5 and Xbox successor though? Wouldn't it make more sense to keep supporting their existing consoles as they already have huge install bases?

@Dogorilla More power probably. If you think about it, wouldn't you have been wondering the same thing about the PS3's existence? What is the point of a PS2 successor when Sony could instead just stick with the PS2 for even longer?

@Grumblevolcano Next gen needs to be a big meaningful leap that is also not super expensive. At the moment, anything that could blow the XBoxX out of the water for less than 400 quid is many years away. We could even get yet another iteration of current gen where in storage becomes cheap enough for hybrid versions of PS4 and XBox1. They are cheeky enough to milk this generation. Especially as the PC master race is currently held to erm...crypto-ransom (if that is a thing!)

@Grumblevolcano True, but PS2 was in standard definition, so making a new console in HD was a pretty big deal, and it allowed developers to make more impressive games. The PS4 Pro is already so graphically advanced that a new console wouldn't be able to add a significant amount of power. Also, not everyone has a 4K TV, so people who don't have one wouldn't even benefit much from an increase in power.

As far as consoles are concerned, we are not going to see any meaningful jump for some time, especially now that PS4 Pro and X1X are on the market. The portable space is a different story though. Mobile tech is advancing at a rapid pace. And 5-6 years from now, they'll have the ability to offer current gen graphics on portable hardware. So Nintendo will still be able to make a significant leap for their next console. Sony and MS will not.

@Grumblevolcano
That's not gonna happen. Capcom isn't gonna sell that franchise to anyone. The only way anyone would get it is if they bought the entire company outright, and I'd say that window of opportunity has already passed. When Capcom was down in the trenches and near bankruptcy, that would've been the time to make a move.

I don't doubt they would want to do such a thing, but Capcom would never go for it. The best they could hope for is sign an exclusivity deal for X number of games, but I'm gonna be honest here, I don't see Capcom signing exclusivity for that franchise with any platform holder going forward, especially if it meant not releasing on Nintendo. World has done well, but even World with a AAA budget and multiple platforms combined is only matching sales on Nintendo from a single platform. They sell 4-5 million physically on Nintendo, on one platform, versus 4-5 million on all other platforms combined. And that number is only going to be higher post-World, and especially higher if the next Nintendo entry had a similar budget. And unlike when Tri released on Wii due to not approving of Sony's handling of the series, and unlike when World released without Nintendo due to no viable platform as an option at the time, there are now popular, viable platforms for all the above with guaranteed substantial sales on every single one of them.

So if anyone were to approach Capcom for an exclusivity deal, they would demand to be paid for the lost revenue they'll be missing out on. The lost revenue from 5 million in sales is going to demand a very, very steep price. And even, then that would just help them break even which offers them no advantage or reason to take the deal. So they would have to pay for the lost revenue and then a hefty fee on top of it.

Likewise, they won't sign an exclusivity deal with Nintendo for the same reason. They have now established a very profitable market across all platforms. Imagine how much Microsoft had to pay Square Enix just for 1 single year exclusivity of a multi-million seller. And that was just a temporary exclusivity deal. It would be a different story if there was a small market on the other platform (which can happen from time to time, be it the start of a new generation, a console not selling well as they hoped, etc), but as of today, that's just not the case. The smallest market would likely be Xbox One or PC. But there's much less reason to prevent the series from releasing on one of those platforms, specifically because of the smaller demand.

But those were just the first three days, there will be more sales

And the PC version isn't out until later this year.

@GrailUK I am not so sure the next generation will be really about graphical and raw power. I think Sony and Microsoft really need to think about what their consoles are going to mean going forward. Right now all three companies, Sony Microsoft and Nintendo, have different ideas as to the future direction of consoles and it is perhaps this that will define the next generation of systems.

@Octane
Right, but that was shipped and digital included. The physical copies actually sold was probably more around the range of 3 to 3.5 million. Will definitely sell more and will likely land around the 5 million physical sold mark when everything is said and done. Maybe it ends up at 5.5, hell maybe even 6, who knows, but it's a reasonable estimate. And even if it ends up a million higher, it changes nothing. If you can sell between 4-5 million on a single platform with the smallest possible budget, versus 5-6 on multiple platforms with an immense budget... The point stands regardless. There's too many sales to give up by signing exclusivity unless somebody wrote an extremely large paycheck.

And PC will add to it, it's also one additional platform developed for. You could reach infinite number of sales by just tacking on infinite numbers of platforms. What's more important is average sales per platform. And with PC factored in, it's probably going to average somewhere around 1.75 to 2 million per platform (just a guess?). Which is fantastic of course. But the point being they get over twice that on Nintendo platforms alone. Probably 3x that if they put the same budget into the next entry. So the payout per dollar invested is much, much higher.

@FragRed One thing I expect is the VR box built into the PS5, and PSVR2 without cables.

@Octane I totally agree with that. I think the PS5 will be heavily designed with the VR experience as a more core experience than it currently is on the PS4. That is where Sony I think sees the future of gaming, at least to a much larger degree than the other two. Nintendo sees the future as hybrid and Microsoft sees it as a Netflix service where the lines of console and PC gaming becomes more blurred.

@Octane As long as you can buy PS5 without the PSVR2, I could see that happening. After making fun of Microsoft in 2013, I don't see Sony falling for the mistakes Microsoft made back then.

@Grumblevolcano Of course they're not going to make it a mandatory purchase, that would drive up the cost way too much. It would be worse than the PS3 and Xbox One launch combined.

And maybe the future is all 3.

There's clearly a market for hybrid platforms. And maybe Sony will have another go at that market if/when PSVR fails. But first they are going to give VR a proper go with new controllers and better visor. And that's the one reason I could see the making a more powerful system- to support the VR. If it doesn't pan out for Gen 2 though, I'm betting the portable market will become their secondary focus.

MS... I don't know what they are planning. Platform as a service, it seems. Full integration of Windows and Xbox. Game Pass. They want everything to be a sub. GamePass on PC or PS5 might be in the cards.

Nintendo, they see the future as hybrid gaming right now, but if it's not as popular 6 years from now they might try something else. You know Nintendo. Always quick to change it up and give us something we didn't even know we wanted. And sometimes... things we actually just don't want at all. For better or worse.

If integrated VR would add a few hundred to the price of a PS5 (compared to the rival Xbox) it could be a risky move - but going 'all in' on VR would certainly be a pretty bold move also - and one that I'd love to see! ..with Microsoft's seeming lack of interest in VR, it could help the next generation of consoles to be more distinct from one another than usual - which'd be really interesting!

@NaviAndMii Nintendos pretty keen on risky moves, I could see that happening.

VR doesn't seem like a viable market

VR is most likely going to catch on years from now. At the present, it's a bit too much in its infancy, but as the tech gets better and better I think VR has very great potential. Games can benefit greatly from VR too, as Resident Evil 7 proved.

Really dislike VR for me, to be honest :/

I tried PSVR for a game in an expo kind of thing, and the movement feels very jarring for me, as well as dizzying. Then again this might be worse for me because I really can't stand the bobblehead in FPS, it makes me dizzy and nausea rising (I can't play Portal/Warframe/Stanley Parable style of game for long, they make me really want to puke)