Topic: Theory: Get ready for a Nintendo Switch first party software drought.

@ElRoberico
You could argue that the Switch is also in a weirdly unique situation. The PS5 and to a lesser degree the XBox Series have suffered from supply shortages and more recently price hikes. Both gimping their launch. All while the Switch managed to luck itself into being the most relevant and available piece of gaming hardware during a period where people were forced to stay at home. I think it's fair to say, probably even more strange than the situation the PS2 was in

But hardware advances march on for Switch just as they did for every console before it. The Switch competes with the potential sales of a new console from Nintendo, not the PS5

@skywake Oh absolutely. In 2020, all it seemed like anyone in my friend group cared about was FF14 and the Switch. The new consoles didn't matter. And the Switch is still somewhat in-demand as well.

I also feel like the Switch is in another unique position since Nintendo doesn't have any other system. Part of the reason the handhelds sold so well was that families bought multiple ones, and that's still somewhat the case with the Switch.

That's also part of the reason I don't think there's going to be a first party title drought. I think there are going to be some weird, unique Nintendo titles coming up, just like the last years of the 3DS. Maybe some ports of the final few Wii U titles (with maybe more Wii ports as well, especially if the new Kirby is part of a trend). The heavy hitters will be reserved for the Switch 2, which will hopefully be more powerful, backward compatible, and still handheld if possible. That's where you might see Metroid Prime 4, a new 3D Mario, Mario Kart 9, and some other stuff.

This Doom and Gloom is just that opinionated clickbait. I'm still dumbfounded at the misleading of minds here. Switch survived not from AAA games but a range of games for different age/gender including female audience even is not so large but that it encompass the age/gender gap why people still put down the Switch a low powered Hybride console that least for a few notable games humms just along. One would think the Benefits of the Switch is still going strong into it's 7th year - yeah the 7th year. And maybe we might get the Switch Pro/2/Super for TOTK release but then again keeping with their games cart factor the updated Switch will keep chugging along. More and more indie/developer sees the Switch as their lifesaver or first platform to showcase how their games can go portable and playanywhere is a good way to advertise your games.

@SwitchForce There is no doom and gloom here. The Switch dominated Japan. It was the best selling console in the UK last year too. Nintendo are still on fire.

I feel like the vibe in this thread is more concerned for the future based on what's happened in the past. It seems more like it was made to be more "Hey, this is a thing that could happen to a console we love. We should be prepared for it instead of complaining," especially since Magician is more dedicated to this console than anyone.

This. Those kinds of games are the massive, mainstream 10+ million system sellers. And, with their reluctance to release new Mario Kart and Mario games when they're old enough to get sequels and when Mario Kart hasn't had an original main series entry on the Switch, a lot of people are thinking that they are holding those off to new hardware. And really we've been in this kind of pattern since 2020 arguably. Aside from Animal Crossing (which was intended for 2019 and delayed until 2020) and Pokemon, there really hasn't been anything of that variety since 2019. To go that long largely ignoring some of their higher selling, more widely appealing IPs is very concerning for the Switch's future. We are not used to going 4+ years without a main series Mario game. We are not used to going 6+ years without a main series Mario Kart game. We are not used to waiting 6 years for an asset flip Zelda game. I think a lot of these long gaps, plus the Booster Course Pack appearing 5 years after MK8D released, is leading people to believe that they're intentionally holding games for a next gen console, and it's hard to disagree with that right now.

Now I do think part of the solution needs to be for them to grow some of these IPs into those more mainstream 10+ million sellers. If they have more of those types of IPs they can better spread them out to anchor each year's sales, but until they manage to do that you're going to continue to see tons of people asking for the same few IPs.

@GrailUK Problem lies in those trying to be what's called revisionist to something that is in their one mind and nothing beyond that matters. That is why such topics exists here - that is so ill-logical you have to wonder what timeline they came from.

@SwitchForce
I think you're misreading the thread. The way I see it there are three competing points of view here. The OP's view is that we are heading towards a repeat of the Wii -> Wii U transition. That we're going to see quality first party output dry up while Nintendo shifts all of their resources to the new hardware. Also that Nintendo will delay new hardware as long as they possibly can in order to bleed the Switch dry. And it'll continue to perform well in the meantime because we're all monkeys who will queue up to buy anything

The other popular view is what I'd argue is the head in the sand view. The unimaginative point of view that exists for every discussion on every topic. That things are as they are and will continue to be so. The Switch is selling well and is getting games. So the Switch will continue to sell well and get games this year. Next year? The Switch will continue to sell well and get games. When we get to next year? Well, in 2025 clearly the Switch will continue to sell well and get games. New hardware? Well, there wasn't new hardware last year so there won't be any this year. TotK could be a cross-gen game? Well maybe you're right, BotW was a cross-gen game.... etc, etc

The third view is the one I subscribe to, the raw technical/business view. That yes, Nintendo will be shifting development towards the new hardware. But they're doing so because the new hardware will release relatively soon. Switch sales are past their peak, it has performed well but nothing lasts forever. The SoC is most definitely behind what it could be and on a pure hardware level is an incredibly poor value. Even so, this transition won't be as brutal as the transition to HD was. The new SoC will be incredibly similar and the fidelity of games will be pretty close. Possibly to the point where the new hardware is still "Switch" and we continue to get OG Switch compatible games well after new hardware launches

@Bolt_Strike How would you recommend growing those titles to be 10 million sellers? I feel like some franchises have had their best and biggest games on the Switch, such as Kirby and Fire Emblem, and yet they're still not at that point. I think they could get to 10 million plus sales eventually, but that won't happen on the Switch imo.

@ElRoberico I appreciate that.

But yes, just looking to soften the blow of the Switch's eventual software downturn.

@ElRoberico There's a few IPs that I think could stand to be fleshed out to be more broadly appealing. Metroid Prime could stand to have more repeatable/extra content (like having optional missions which could reward Samus with currency to use on powerups, customization options, etc., maybe a boss rush/rematch mode) and to bring back and expand its multiplayer mode. Starfox would probably be a lot bigger if it followed what Starlink did because that would bring in the open world crowd (I myself was not interested in Starfox until Starlink, there's probably a lot more of an untapped market here). DK needs to go 3D again and do it right (no constant switching characters to collect everything, constant barriers to unlock the rest of the level that also sometimes require specific characters, etc., implement some unique mechanics that would set it apart from 3D Mario such as going in a more combat platformer focused direction, etc.). Admittedly it might be more likely that you would need new IPs to flesh out this lineup, but Luigi's Mansion's joined the 10 million sales club this gen, so anything's possible.

@Magician No problem!

@Bolt_Strike I really love that Prime pitch. It would really make it stand out from 2D Metroid, and still provide something really exciting. I've also been dying for a Star Fox pitch for years, and open-world in-ships could be really cool. I think it would be more interesting if they added some on-foot sections as well. I adore the Star Fox crew. It would be really cool to be able to play more as Fox and Co. as they explore different sections.

I also completely forget that Luigi's Mansion 3 sold over 10 million copies. But then again, it's been sitting in my backlog for a long time.